HARVESTING STRATEGIES IN A FISH STOCK DOMINATED BY LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY: THE NORWEGIAN SPRING-SPAWNING HERRING (CLUPEA HARENGUS)

Heavy positively autocorrelated natural fluctuations in a fisheries stock level are problematic for fisheries management, and collapses in the stock dynamics are difficult to avoid. In this paper, we compare three different harvesting strategies (proportional harvesting, threshold harvesting, and proportional threshold harvesting) in an autocorrelated and heavily fluctuating fishery — the Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) — in terms of risk of quasi-extinction, average annual yield, and coefficient of variation of the yield. Contrary to general expectations, we found that the three strategies produce comparable yields and risks of quasi-extinction. The only observable difference was slightly higher yield and variation in the proportional threshold strategy when the yield is optimized. Thus, it remains an open question as how to characterize the circumstances when it is particularly needful to apply threshold levels in harvest policies.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Habitat selection and population regulation in temporally fluctuating environments

Understanding and predicting the distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environments lies at the heart of ecology, and the theory of density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) provides ecologists with an inferential framework linking evolution and population dynamics. Current theory does not allow for temporal variation in habitat quality, a serious limitation when confronted with real ecological systems. We develop both a stochastic equivalent of the ideal free distribution to study how spatial patterns of habitat use depend on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity and also a stochastic habitat selection rule. The emerging patterns are confronted with deterministic predictions based on isodar analysis, an established empirical approach to the analysis of habitat selection patterns. Our simulations highlight some consistent patterns of habitat use, indicating that it is possible to make inferences about the habitat selection process based on observed patterns of habitat use. However, isodar analysis gives results that are contingent on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity. Hence, DDHS is better revealed by a measure of habitat selectivity than by empirical isodars. The detection of DDHS is but a small component of isodar theory, which remains an important conceptual framework for linking evolutionary strategies in behavior and population dynamics

Trend detection in source-sink systems: when should sink habitats be monitored?

We determine the power of population monitoring in source or sink habitat to detect declining reproductive success in source habitat using a stochastic population model. The relative power to detect a trend in the source by monitoring either the source or the sink varies with life history parameters, environmental stochasticity, and observation uncertainty. The power to detect a decline monitoring either source or sink habitat is maximized when the reproductive surplus in the source is low. The power to detect a decline by monitoring the sink increases with increasing reproductive deficit in the sink. If environmental stochasticity in the source increases, the power in the sink goes down due to a lower signal-to-noise ratio. However, the power in the sink increases if environmental stochasticity is increased further, because increasing stochasticity reduces the geometric mean growth rate in the source. Intriguingly, it is often most efficient to monitor the sink even though the actual reproductive decline occurs in the source. If reproductive success is declining in both habitats, censusing the sink will always have higher power. However, the probability of Type 1 error is always higher in the sink. Our results clearly have implications for optimal population monitoring in source-sink landscapes

Visualisering – ett verktyg för att illustrera långsiktiga konsekvenser av slutavverkning och naturhänsyn

Forestry in Sweden is currently conducted in a manner aiming at equating the production objectives and the biodiversity. To ensure that biodiversity is maintained, patches that are considered to be valuable now or in the future is saved in final fellings. How the tree retention areas will grow into the future forest stands is yet unknown. The purpose of this study was to visualize how different scenarios of natural consideration taken at final felling will evolve in a long term perspective, for two rotation periods. Projections of the forest conditions were executed with the decision support system Heureka and its applications PlanStart and PlanWise. The information about the projected forests was then used for the visualizations which were created in the software Visual Nature Studio. For each scenario a number of visualizations were presented in images and related information of standing volume. A dialogue was also carried out with scientists working with forestry planning to discuss the benefits of visualization. They believed visualization should a part of the decision support systems that are used in forestry planning. Visualization has a future in Swedish forestry, but before it’s possible to make visualization more available a method making the dataflow simpler is needed as this is the most time consuming part today

Mapping site index in coniferous forests using bi-temporal airborne laser scanning data and field data from the Swedish national forest inventory

Recent advancements in remote sensing of forests have demonstrated the capabilities of three-dimensional data acquired by airborne laser scanning (ALS) and, consequently, have become an integral part of enhanced forest inventories in Northern Europe. In Sweden, the first national laser scanning revolutionised forest management planning through low-cost production of large-scale and spatially explicit maps of forest attributes such as basal area, volume, and biomass, compared to the earlier practice based on field survey data. A second scanning at the national level was launched in 2019, and it provides conditions for the estimation of height growth and site index. Accurate and up-to-date information about site productivity is relevant for planning silvicultural treatments and for the prognosis of forest status and development over time. In this study, we explored the potential of bi-temporal ALS data and other auxiliary information to predict and map site productivity by site index according to site properties (SIS) of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in even aged stands in Sweden. We linked ground survey data of SIS from more than 11,500 plots of the Swedish National Forest Inventory (NFI) to bi-temporal ALS data to predict and map site index using an area-based method and two regression modelling strategies: (1) a multiple linear regression (MLR) model with an ordinary least-squares parameter estimation method, and (2) a non-parametric random forests (RF) model optimised for hyper parameter tuning. For model development, permanent plots were used, whereas the validation was done on the temporary plots of the Swedish NFI and an independent stand-level dataset. Species-specific models were developed, and the root mean square error (RMSE) metric was used to quantify the residual variability around model predictions. For both species, the MLR model gave precise and accurate estimates of SIS. The RMSE for SIS predictions was in the range of 1.96 - 2.11 m, and the relative RMSE was less than 10 % (7.68 - 9.49 %) of the reference mean value. Final predictors of site index include metrics of 90th percentile height and annual increment in the 95th percentile height, altitude, distance to coast, and soil moisture. Country-wide maps of SIS and the corresponding pixel-level prediction errors at a spatial resolution of 12.5 m grid cells were produced for the two species. Independent validations show the site index maps are suitable for use in operational forest management planning in Sweden

Integrating Meteorology into Research on Migration

Atmospheric dynamics strongly influence the migration of flying organisms. They affect, among others, the onset, duration and cost of migration, migratory routes, stop-over decisions, and flight speeds en-route. Animals move through a heterogeneous environment and have to react to atmospheric dynamics at different spatial and temporal scales. Integrating meteorology into research on migration is not only challenging but it is also important, especially when trying to understand the variability of the various aspects of migratory behavior observed in nature. In this article, we give an overview of some different modeling approaches and we show how these have been incorporated into migration research. We provide a more detailed description of the development and application of two dynamic, individual-based models, one for waders and one for soaring migrants, as examples of how and why to integrate meteorology into research on migration. We use these models to help understand underlying mechanisms of individual response to atmospheric conditions en-route and to explain emergent patterns. This type of models can be used to study the impact of variability in atmospheric dynamics on migration along a migratory trajectory, between seasons and between years. We conclude by providing some basic guidelines to help researchers towards finding the right modeling approach and the meteorological data needed to integrate meteorology into their own research

Constrained growth flips the direction of optimal phenological responses among annual plants

Phenological changes among plants due to climate change are well documented, but often hard to interpet. In order to assess the adaptive value of observed changes, we study how annual plants with and without growth constraints should optimize their flowering time when productivity and season length changes. We consider growth constraints that depend on the plant's vegetative mass: self-shading, costs for nonphotosynthetic structural tissue and sibling competition. We derive the optimal flowering time from a dynamic energy allocation model using optimal control theroy. We prove that an immediate switch (bang-bang control) from vegetative to reproductive growth is optimal with constrained growth and constant mortality. Increasing mean productivity, while keeping season length constant and growth unconstrained, delayed the optimal flowering time. When growth was constrained and productivity was relatively high, the optimal flowering time advanced instead. When the growth season was extended equally at both ends, the optimal flowering time was advanced under constrined growth and delayed under unconstrained growth. Our results suggests that growth constraints are key factors to consider when interpreting phenologicl flowering responses. It can help to explain phenological patterns along productivity gradients, and links empirical observations made on calendar scales with life-history theory

Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change

Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous control mechanisms. Here we assess and discuss key statements emerging from the rapidly developing study of changing spring phenology in migratory birds. These well-studied organisms have been instrumental for understanding climate-change effects, but research is developing rapidly and there is a need to attack the big issues rather than risking affirmative science. Although we agree poorly on the support for most claims, agreement regarding the knowledge basis enables consensus regarding broad patterns and likely causes. Empirical data needed for disentangling mechanisms are still scarce, and consequences at a population level and on community composition remain unclear. With increasing knowledge, the overall support (‘consensus view’) for a claim increased and between-researcher variability in support (‘expert opinions') decreased, indicating the importance of assessing and communicating the knowledge basis. A proper integration across biological disciplines seems essential for the field's transition from affirming patterns to understanding mechanisms and making robust predictions regarding future consequences of shifting phenologies

Leptin Affects Life History Decisions in a Passerine Bird: A Field Experiment

BACKGROUND: Organisms face trade-offs regarding their life-history strategies, such as decisions of single or multiple broods within a year. In passerines displaying facultative multiple breeding, the probability of laying a second clutch is influenced by several life-history factors. However, information about the mechanistic background of these trade-offs is largely lacking. Leptin is a protein hormone produced by white fat cells, and acts as a signal between peripheral energy depots and the central nervous system. In addition, leptin affects cells at all levels of the reproductive axis and plays a critical role in regulating the allocation of metabolic energy to reproduction. As such, it is possible that leptin levels influence the decision of whether or not to invest time and energy into a second clutch. Accordingly, we expect a treatment with exogenous leptin to result in an increased number of second broods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: At a later stage during the first brood, female great tits were treated either with long-term leptin-filled cholesterol pellets (the experimental birds) or with pellets containing only cholesterol (the control birds). We found that leptin-treated females were significantly more likely to have a second brood and that the earlier females were more likely to lay a second clutch than the late females. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: As both timing of first brood and treatment with leptin were important in the decision of having multiple broods, the trade-offs involved in the breeding strategy most likely depend on multiple factors. Presumably leptin has evolved as a signal of energy supply status to regulate the release of reproductive hormones so that reproduction is coordinated with periods of sufficient nutrients. This study investigated the role of leptin as a mediator between energy resources and reproductive output, providing a fundamentally new insight into how trade-offs work on a functional basis

Residency and a broad feeding spectrum are related to extensive spatial exploration in parrots

Resident and nomadic species differ substantially in their mobility, with the former spending most of their lives in a restricted area and the latter encountering many areas while tracking spatiotemporal unpredictable resources. Earlier studies have shown that information gathering differs alongside this mobility axis—resident species pay more attention to changes in their familiar environment than nomadic ones. However, little is known about spatial exploration in resident and nomadic species. We investigated spatial exploration in 10 closely related parrot species that differed in their mobility by giving them access to two unfamiliar aviaries left and right of the familiar aviary. For analyses, mobility and some diet and habitat variables were related to spatial exploration. Nomadic species spent less time exploring the novel aviaries and also started tactile exploration later than resident/nomadic and pure resident species. Furthermore, diet specialists visited more new locations in relation to their overall movements than diet generalists. The variables were not correlated with the molecular phylogeny (mitochondrial cytochrome b) of the species. The results indicate that nomads invest less in spatial exploration than residents possibly because they stay only for limited periods of time in one particular area or use easier-to-assess cues. Residents, in contrast, assess a novel environment in detail as they may collect information about future breeding sites for which they need short- and long-term information. Finally, diet specialists may pay attention to fewer environmental cues than generalists, which allows them to move faster through a novel environment