An open reproducible framework for the study of the iterated prisoner's dilemma

The Axelrod library is an open source Python package that allows for reproducible game theoretic research into the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. This area of research began in the 1980s but suffers from a lack of documentation and test code. The goal of the library is to provide such a resource, with facilities for the design of new strategies and interactions between them, as well as conducting tournaments and ecological simulations for populations of strategies. With a growing collection of 139 strategies, the library is a also a platform for an original tournament that, in itself, is of interest to the game theoretic community. This paper describes the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, the Axelrod library and its development, and insights gained from some novel research.Comment: 11 pages, Journal of Open Research Software 4.1 (2016

Flux transfer event observation at Saturn's dayside magnetopause by the Cassini spacecraft

We present the first observation of a flux rope at Saturn's dayside magnetopause. This is an important result because it shows that the Saturnian magnetopause is conducive to multiple X-line reconnection and flux rope generation. Minimum variance analysis shows that the magnetic signature is consistent with a flux rope. The magnetic observations were well fitted to a constant-α force-free flux rope model. The radius and magnetic flux content of the rope are estimated to be 4600–8300 km and 0.2–0.8 MWb, respectively. Cassini also observed five traveling compression regions (remote signatures of flux ropes), in the adjacent magnetosphere. The magnetic flux content is compared to other estimates of flux opening via reconnection at Saturn

Intellectual enrichment and genetic modifiers of cognition and brain volume in Huntington's disease

An important step towards the development of treatments for cognitive impairment in ageing and neurodegenerative diseases is to identify genetic and environmental modifiers of cognitive function and understand the mechanism by which they exert an effect. In Huntington’s disease, the most common autosomal dominant dementia, a small number of studies have identified intellectual enrichment, i.e. a cognitively stimulating lifestyle and genetic polymorphisms as potential modifiers of cognitive function. The aim of our study was to further investigate the relationship and interaction between genetic factors and intellectual enrichment on cognitive function and brain atrophy in Huntington’s disease. For this purpose, we analysed data from Track-HD, a multi-centre longitudinal study in Huntington’s disease gene carriers and focused on the role of intellectual enrichment (estimated at baseline) and the genes FAN1, MSH3, BDNF, COMT and MAPT in predicting cognitive decline and brain atrophy. We found that carrying the 3a allele in the MSH3 gene had a positive effect on global cognitive function and brain atrophy in multiple cortical regions, such that 3a allele carriers had a slower rate of cognitive decline and atrophy compared with non-carriers, in agreement with its role in somatic instability. No other genetic predictor had a significant effect on cognitive function and the effect of MSH3 was independent of intellectual enrichment. Intellectual enrichment also had a positive effect on cognitive function; participants with higher intellectual enrichment, i.e. those who were better educated, had higher verbal intelligence and performed an occupation that was intellectually engaging, had better cognitive function overall, in agreement with previous studies in Huntington’s disease and other dementias. We also found that intellectual enrichment interacted with the BDNF gene, such that the positive effect of intellectual enrichment was greater in Met66 allele carriers than non-carriers. A similar relationship was also identified for changes in whole brain and caudate volume; the positive effect of intellectual enrichment was greater for Met66 allele carriers, rather than for non-carriers. In summary, our study provides additional evidence for the beneficial role of intellectual enrichment and carrying the 3a allele in MSH3 in cognitive function in Huntington’s disease and their effect on brain structure

Ten-year mortality, disease progression, and treatment-related side effects in men with localised prostate cancer from the ProtecT randomised controlled trial according to treatment received

Background The ProtecT trial reported intention-to-treat analysis of men with localised prostate cancer randomly allocated to active monitoring (AM), radical prostatectomy, and external beam radiotherapy. Objective To report outcomes according to treatment received in men in randomised and treatment choice cohorts. Design, setting, and participants This study focuses on secondary care. Men with clinically localised prostate cancer at one of nine UK centres were invited to participate in the treatment trial comparing AM, radical prostatectomy, and radiotherapy. Intervention Two cohorts included 1643 men who agreed to be randomised and 997 who declined randomisation and chose treatment. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis Analysis was carried out to assess mortality, metastasis and progression and health-related quality of life impacts on urinary, bowel, and sexual function using patient-reported outcome measures. Analysis was based on comparisons between groups defined by treatment received for both randomised and treatment choice cohorts in turn, with pooled estimates of intervention effect obtained using meta-analysis. Differences were estimated with adjustment for known prognostic factors using propensity scores. Results and limitations According to treatment received, more men receiving AM died of PCa (AM 1.85%, surgery 0.67%, radiotherapy 0.73%), whilst this difference remained consistent with chance in the randomised cohort (p = 0.08); stronger evidence was found in the exploratory analyses (randomised plus choice cohort) when AM was compared with the combined radical treatment group (p = 0.003). There was also strong evidence that metastasis (AM 5.6%, surgery 2.4%, radiotherapy 2.7%) and disease progression (AM 20.35%, surgery 5.87%, radiotherapy 6.62%) were more common in the AM group. Compared with AM, there were higher risks of sexual dysfunction (95% at 6 mo) and urinary incontinence (55% at 6 mo) after surgery, and of sexual dysfunction (88% at 6 mo) and bowel dysfunction (5% at 6 mo) after radiotherapy. The key limitations are the potential for bias when comparing groups defined by treatment received and changes in the protocol for AM during the lengthy follow-up required in trials of screen-detected PCa. Conclusions Analyses according to treatment received showed increased rates of disease-related events and lower rates of patient-reported harms in men managed by AM compared with men managed by radical treatment, and stronger evidence of greater PCa mortality in the AM group. Patient summary More than 95 out of every 100 men with low or intermediate risk localised prostate cancer do not die of prostate cancer within 10 yr, irrespective of whether treatment is by means of monitoring, surgery, or radiotherapy. Side effects on sexual and bladder function are better after active monitoring, but the risks of spreading of prostate cancer are more common

Upper limit map of a background of gravitational waves

We searched for an anisotropic background of gravitational waves using data from the LIGO S4 science run and a method that is optimized for point sources. This is appropriate if, for example, the gravitational wave background is dominated by a small number of distinct astrophysical sources. No signal was seen. Upper limit maps were produced assuming two different power laws for the source strain power spectrum. For an f^-3 power law and using the 50 Hz to 1.8 kHz band the upper limits on the source strain power spectrum vary between 1.2e-48 Hz^-1 (100 Hz/f)^3 and 1.2e-47 Hz^-1 (100 Hz /f)^3, depending on the position in the sky. Similarly, in the case of constant strain power spectrum, the upper limits vary between 8.5e-49 Hz^-1 and 6.1e-48 Hz^-1. As a side product a limit on an isotropic background of gravitational waves was also obtained. All limits are at the 90% confidence level. Finally, as an application, we focused on the direction of Sco-X1, the closest low-mass X-ray binary. We compare the upper limit on strain amplitude obtained by this method to expectations based on the X-ray luminosity of Sco-X1.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures, 2 table

Upper limit map of a background of gravitational waves

We searched for an anisotropic background of gravitational waves using data from the LIGO S4 science run and a method that is optimized for point sources. This is appropriate if, for example, the gravitational wave background is dominated by a small number of distinct astrophysical sources. No signal was seen. Upper limit maps were produced assuming two different power laws for the source strain power spectrum. For an f^-3 power law and using the 50 Hz to 1.8 kHz band the upper limits on the source strain power spectrum vary between 1.2e-48 Hz^-1 (100 Hz/f)^3 and 1.2e-47 Hz^-1 (100 Hz /f)^3, depending on the position in the sky. Similarly, in the case of constant strain power spectrum, the upper limits vary between 8.5e-49 Hz^-1 and 6.1e-48 Hz^-1. As a side product a limit on an isotropic background of gravitational waves was also obtained. All limits are at the 90% confidence level. Finally, as an application, we focused on the direction of Sco-X1, the closest low-mass X-ray binary. We compare the upper limit on strain amplitude obtained by this method to expectations based on the X-ray luminosity of Sco-X1.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures, 2 table

Functional and quality of life outcomes of localised prostate cancer treatments (prostate testing for cancer and treatment [ProtecT] study)

Objective To investigate the functional and quality of life (QoL) outcomes of treatments for localised prostate cancer and inform treatment decision-making. Patients and Methods Men aged 50–69 years diagnosed with localised prostate cancer by prostate-specific antigen testing and biopsies at nine UK centres in the Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) trial were randomised to, or chose one of, three treatments. Of 2565 participants, 1135 men received active monitoring (AM), 750 a radical prostatectomy (RP), 603 external-beam radiotherapy (EBRT) with concurrent androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) and 77 low-dose-rate brachytherapy (BT, not a randomised treatment). Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) completed annually for 6 years were analysed by initial treatment and censored for subsequent treatments. Mixed effects models were adjusted for baseline characteristics using propensity scores. Results Treatment-received analyses revealed different impacts of treatments over 6 years. Men remaining on AM experienced gradual declines in sexual and urinary function with age (e.g., increases in erectile dysfunction from 35% of men at baseline to 53% at 6 years and nocturia similarly from 20% to 38%). Radical treatment impacts were immediate and continued over 6 years. After RP, 95% of men reported erectile dysfunction persisting for 85% at 6 years, and after EBRT this was reported by 69% and 74%, respectively (P < 0.001 compared with AM). After RP, 36% of men reported urinary leakage requiring at least 1 pad/day, persisting for 20% at 6 years, compared with no change in men receiving EBRT or AM (P < 0.001). Worse bowel function and bother (e.g., bloody stools 6% at 6 years and faecal incontinence 10%) was experienced by men after EBRT than after RP or AM (P < 0.001) with lesser effects after BT. No treatment affected mental or physical QoL. Conclusion Treatment decision-making for localised prostate cancer can be informed by these 6-year functional and QoL outcomes