Editorial

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Effects of frozen soil on soil temperature, spring infiltration, and runoff: results from the PILPS 2(d) experiment at Valdai, Russia

Permission to place copies of these works on this server has been provided by the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The AMS does not guarantee that the copies provided here are accurate copies of the published work. © Copyright 2003 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or [email protected] Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2(d) experiment at Valdai, Russia, offers a unique opportunity to evaluate land surface schemes, especially snow and frozen soil parameterizations. Here, the ability of the 21 schemes that participated in the experiment to correctly simulate the thermal and hydrological properties of the soil on several different timescales was examined. Using observed vertical profiles of soil temperature and soil moisture, the impact of frozen soil schemes in the land surface models on the soil temperature and soil moisture simulations was evaluated. It was found that when soil-water freezing is explicitly included in a model, it improves the simulation of soil temperature and its variability at seasonal and interannual scales. Although change of thermal conductivity of the soil also affects soil temperature simulation, this effect is rather weak. The impact of frozen soil on soil moisture is inconclusive in this experiment due to the particular climate at Valdai, where the top 1 m of soil is very close to saturation during winter and the range for soil moisture changes at the time of snowmelt is very limited. The results also imply that inclusion of explicit snow processes in the models would contribute to substantially improved simulations. More sophisticated snow models based on snow physics tend to produce better snow simulations, especially of snow ablation. Hysteresis of snow-cover fraction as a function of snow depth is observed at the catchment but not in any of the models

Effects of Frozen Soil on Soil Temperature, Spring Infiltration, and Runoff: Results from the PILPS 2(d) Experiment at Valdai, Russia

The Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2(d) experiment at Valdai, Russia, offers a unique opportunity to evaluate land surface schemes, especially snow and frozen soil parameterizations. Here, the ability of the 21 schemes that participated in the experiment to correctly simulate the thermal and hydrological properties of the soil on several different timescales was examined. Using observed vertical profiles of soil temperature and soil moisture, the impact of frozen soil schemes in the land surface models on the soil temperature and soil moisture simulations was evaluated. It was found that when soil-water freezing is explicitly included in a model, it improves the simulation of soil temperature and its variability at seasonal and interannual scales. Although change of thermal conductivity of the soil also affects soil temperature simulation, this effect is rather weak. The impact of frozen soil on soil moisture is inconclusive in this experiment due to the particular climate at Valdai, where the top 1 m of soil is very close to saturation during winter and the range for soil moisture changes at the time of snowmelt is very limited. The results also imply that inclusion of explicit snow processes in the models would contribute to substantially improved simulations. More sophisticated snow models based on snow physics tend to produce better snow simulations, especially of snow ablation. Hysteresis of snow-cover fraction as a function of snow depth is observed at the catchment but not in any of the models

The representation of snow in land surface schemes: results from PILPS 2(d)

Permission to place copies of these works on this server has been provided by the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The AMS does not guarantee that the copies provided here are accurate copies of the published work. © Copyright 2001 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or [email protected] land surface schemes (LSSs) performed simulations forced by 18 yr of observed meteorological data from a grassland catchment at Valdai, Russia, as part of the Project for the Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) Phase 2(d). In this paper the authors examine the simulation of snow. In comparison with observations, the models are able to capture the broad features of the snow regime on both an intra- and interannual basis. However, weaknesses in the simulations exist, and early season ablation events are a significant source of model scatter. Over the 18-yr simulation, systematic differences between the models’ snow simulations are evident and reveal specific aspects of snow model parameterization and design as being responsible. Vapor exchange at the snow surface varies widely among the models, ranging from a large net loss to a small net source for the snow season. Snow albedo, fractional snow cover, and their interplay have a large effect on energy available for ablation, with differences among models most evident at low snow depths. The incorporation of the snowpack within an LSS structure affects the method by which snow accesses, as well as utilizes, available energy for ablation. The sensitivity of some models to longwave radiation, the dominant winter radiative flux, is partly due to a stability-induced feedback and the differing abilities of models to exchange turbulent energy with the atmosphere. Results presented in this paper suggest where weaknesses in macroscale snow modeling lie and where both theoretical and observational work should be focused to address these weaknesses

Modeling of land surface evaporation by four schemes and comparison with FIFE observations

Abstract. We tested four land surface parameterization schemes against long-term (

Linear Programming and Dynamic Programming Application to Water Distribution Network Design

The work upon which this publication is based was supported by funds provided by the New York City Bureau of the Budget and by the MIT Sloan Basic Research Fund.The water distribution network design problem is to find the optimal set of investments in pipelines that are needed to satisfy water requirements. The strategy of this study has been first to define an optimality criterion for ranking alternative investment opportunities and then to formulate a mathematical programming model for solving the optimal investment problem. The least cost optimality criterion leads to a non-linear mathematical programming problem for which no computational methods exist that guarantee an optimal solution. Other existing techniques that yield "good" solutions are computationally inefficient. The strategy taken in this study has been to modify the least cost problem so that linear programming could be applied to achieve a solution to the modified form of the problem. Variables were transformed to linearize the non-linear terms in the pipe flow formula. In this way, the non-linear flow phenomenon is represented exactly. The resulting linear programming model may be used to determine the pipe diameters of pipes that must be added to the system to satisfy given sets of water requirements that are expected to occur at a given future time. Water requirements increase with increases in population and economic productivity. To meet these growing requirements, excess capacity must be provided. The problem of deciding how far into the future the system should be planned is known as a capacity expansion problem. The capacity expansion problem has been formulated as a dynamic programming problem and applied to the water distribution network expansion problem

Simulation of the Continuous Snowmelt Process

The work upon which this publication is based was supported by the Subsecretar�a de Recursos H�dricos, Ministerio de Obras y Servicios P�blicos, Argentina.The efficient design of many water management projects requires the ability to predict the time distribution of runoff from a melting snowfield. A continuous model of the snow accumation and melting processes is presented for this purpose. The empirical and theoretical equations that have been used to represent these processes are integrated into a model developed to have a wide range of applicability owing to its flexible data requirements. The snowmelt model is tested using various combinations of recorded data thought likely to be available in practical design problems. A comparison of the generated values of certain important snowpack variables with those actually observed shows good agreement. Application of the model to an experimental catchment is made to estimate streamflows resulting from the computed snowmelt. Although the results were favorable, suggestions are made as to how they may be improved

The Methodology of Bayesian Inference and Decision Making Applied to Extreme Hydrologic Events

Scanning notes: Disclaimer inserted for illegible graphs and text.Project supported by Office of Water Resources Research grant no. 14-31-0001-9021This study presents the methodology of Bayesian inference and decision making applied to extreme hydrologic events. Inference procedures must consider both the natural or 'modelled' uncertainty of the hydrologic process and the statistical uncertainty due to a lack of information. Two types of statistical uncertainty were considered in this study. The first type is the uncertainty in modelling the hydrologic process, and the second type is the uncertainty in the values of the model parameters. The uncertainty is reduced by considering prior sources of information (regional regression, theoretical flood frequency analysis or subjective assessment) and historical flood data. A 'Bayesian distribution' of flood discharges is developed that fully accounts for parameter uncertainty. In an analogous manner, model uncertainty is analyzed, which leads to a 'composite Bayesian distribution'. The uncertainty in flood frequency curves from rainfall-runoff models is also analyzed, due to the uncertainty in the parameters of the models. The Bayesian inference model is then applied to a Bayesian decision model, where the decision rule is the maximization of expected net monetary benefits. A case study of determining the optimal size of local flood protection for Woonsocket, Rhode Island, was considered, using realistic flood damage and cost functions. The results indicate that Bayesian inference procedures can be used to fully account for statistical uncertainty and that Bayesian decision procedures provide a rational approach for making decisions under uncertainty

Aims, Challenges and Progress of the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) - Following the 3rd HEPEX Workshop Held in Stresa 27-29th June 2007

Over the past several years users of meteorological weather forecasting data have begun to realize the benefit of quantifying the uncertainty associated with forecasts rather than relying on single value forecasts for the most probable scenario. At the same time, hydrologists and water managers have begun to explore the potential benefit of ensemble prediction systems for hydrological applications. The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction EXperiment (HEPEX), established in 2004, is an international project that aims to foster the development of advanced probabilistic hydrologic forecast techniques and of corresponding decision making tools. During the past 3 years, HEPEX has provided discussion opportunities for hydrological and meteorological scientists involved in the development, testing and operational management of forecasting systems, and end-users. During the third international workshop on HEPEX, organized in Stresa, Italy, on 27-29th June 2007, results from previously defined test-bed projects were presented, some key scientific questions were discussed, and some additional test-bed projects were proposed. This manuscript summarizes the project status after the conclusion of the 3rd HEPEX WS.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard