Historical Arctic Logbooks Provide Insights into Past Diets and Climatic Responses of Cod

Gadus morhua (Atlantic cod) stocks in the Barents Sea are currently at levels not seen since the 1950s. Causes for the population increase last century, and understanding of whether such large numbers will be maintained in the future, are unclear. To explore this, we digitised and interrogated historical cod catch and diet datasets from the Barents Sea. Seventeen years of catch data and 12 years of prey data spanning 1930–1959 cover unexplored spatial and temporal ranges, and importantly capture the end of a previous warm period, when temperatures were similar to those currently being experienced. This study aimed to evaluate cod catch per unit effort and prey frequency in relation to spatial, temporal and environmental variables. There was substantial spatio-temporal heterogeneity in catches through the time series. The highest catches were generally in the 1930s and 1940s, although at some localities more cod were recorded late in the 1950s. Generalized Additive Models showed that environmental, spatial and temporal variables are all valuable descriptors of cod catches, with the highest occurring from 15–45°E longitude and 73–77°N latitude, at bottom temperatures between 2 and 4°C and at depths between 150 and 250 m. Cod diets were highly variable during the study period, with frequent changes in the relative frequencies of different prey species, particularly Mallotus villosus (capelin). Environmental variables were particularly good at describing the importance of capelin and Clupea harengus (herring) in the diet. These new analyses support existing knowledge about how the ecology of the region is controlled by climatic variability. When viewed in combination with more recent data, these historical relationships will be valuable in forecasting the future of Barents Sea fisheries, and in understanding how environments and ecosystems may respond

249–267 Predicting indirect effects of fishing in Mediterranean rocky littoral communities using a dynamic simulation model

Abstract Modelling may significantly enhance our understanding of the potential impacts of fisheries at larger spatial scales and on groups that would otherwise be very difficult to study. An aggregated biomass-based simulation model of a Mediterranean infralittoral zone was developed and used to carry out fishing 'experiments' where fishing intensity and catch selection were varied. The model was constructed for the Bay of Calvi, Corsica, using the Ecopath with Ecosim software, and was composed of 27 compartments, including seabirds, 11 groups of fish, 12 groups of invertebrates, 2 primary producers, bacteria and detritus. Several instances of indirect fishing effects ('trophic cascades' and 'keystone predation') have been proposed from anecdotal evidence in the western Mediterranean. Model outcomes provided little support for the widely accepted paradigm that fishing, by removing invertebrate-feeding fish, allows increases in the biomass of sea urchins and as a consequence the formation of overgrazed 'barrens' of bare substrate. Simulated harvesting of sea urchins by humans did, however, results in an increase of macroalgal biomass as reported previously. Intensified fishing pressure on 'macrocarnivorous' fish resulted in a 'release' of small fish species (e.g. blennies), and as a consequence a decline in the biomass of some small invertebrates on which they feed (e.g. amphipods). Increased fishing on large 'piscivores' resulted in increases in other small fish groups and consequential effects on other benthic invertebrate groups (e.g. polychaetes). Depletion of piscivorous fish resulted in a dramatic increase in the biomass of seabirds, which apparently compete with piscivores for small demersal and pelagic fish. An intensification of fishing pressure overall resulted in an increase in cephalopod biomass. Responses of target species to increased fishing pressure were most marked within the first 5 years of the new fishing regime. Indirect responses exhibited varying degrees of inertia, and biomasses of many groups did not assume a new equilibrium within the first 20 years of the simulation. The Mediterranean infralittoral rocky-bottom ecosystem was predicted to be relatively resilient to pulses of increased fishing and exhibited a high degree of detritus recycling. However, the speed and magnitude of ecosystem responses was shown to depend greatly on the extent of 'top-down' or 'bottom-up' control assumed for components within the system. Crow

How quantitative is metabarcoding: a meta-analytical approach

Metabarcoding has been used in a range of ecological applications such as taxonomic assignment, dietary analysis, and the analysis of environmental DNA. However, after a decade of use in these applications there is little consensus on the extent to which proportions of reads generated corresponds to the original proportions of species in a community. To quantify our current understanding we conducted a structured review and meta‐analysis. The analysis suggests that a weak quantitative relationship may exist between the biomass and sequences produced (slope = 0.52 ±0.34, p<0.01), albeit it with a large degree of uncertainty. None of the tested moderators: sequencing platform type, the number of species used in a trial, or the source of DNA were able to explain the variance. Our current understanding of the factors affecting the quantitative performance of metabarcoding is still limited: additional research is required before metabarcoding can be confidently utilised for quantitative applications. Until then, we advocate the inclusion of mock communities when metabarcoding as this facilitates direct assessment of the quantitative ability of any given study

Ten thousand voices on marine climate change in Europe: different perceptions among demographic groups and nationalities

Over the past few decades, substantial funding has been directed towards improving scientific understanding and management of impacts of climate change in the marine environment. Following concerns that the key messages from these studies were not reaching the public, a comprehensive opinion poll of 10,000 European citizens in 10 countries was conducted to establish levels of awareness, concern, and trust among different demographic groups (by age, gender, proximity to the coast) and nationalities. Citizens exhibited varying levels of self-declared ‘informedness’ and concern. Citizens from Germany, Italy and Spain claimed to be the most informed on marine climate change issues; those from Czech Republic, Netherlands and Estonia claimed to be least informed. Respondents were least aware of ocean acidification and most aware of melting sea ice, pollution and overfishing. Citizens of Italy suggested that they were generally most concerned about marine climate change issues. Respondents from coastal areas claimed to be both more informed and more concerned than those living inland, as did females and older age groups (54-64 years). European citizens obtain information about climate change in the seas and ocean from different sources, particularly television and the internet. Trust in the various media sources varies among countries and demographic groups. Television is trusted most in Estonia, Germany and Ireland and least in France. The internet is trusted most in Italy, Czech Republic and Estonia, but least in France and the United Kingdom. 18-24 year olds are the biggest users of the internet, but trust this source less than older age groups. Academic scientists or those working for environmental NGOs are trusted more than scientists working for government or industry. Citizens from France are more trusting of industry than any other country polled. In terms of policy actions, most respondents highlighted mitigation measures as opposed to local-scale adaptation. Younger participants prioritised actions associated with reducing carbon emissions, whereas older age groups prioritised improving coastal defences. Successful adaptation to the impacts of climate change requires public engagement and support for policy decisions, and the use of different approaches to take account of differences among demographic groups and nationalities

Socio-economic Impacts—Fisheries

Fishers and scientists have known for over 100 years that the status of fish stocks can be greatly influenced by prevailing climatic conditions. Based on historical sea surface temperature data, the North Sea has been identified as one of 20 ‘hot spots’ of climate change globally and projections for the next 100 years suggest that the region will continue to warm. The consequences of this rapid temperature rise are already being seen in shifts in species distribution and variability in stock recruitment. This chapter reviews current evidence for climate change effects on fisheries in the North Sea—one of the most important fishing grounds in the world—as well as available projections for North Sea fisheries in the future. Discussion focuses on biological, operational and wider market concerns, as well as on possible economic consequences. It is clear that fish communities and the fisheries that target them will be very different in 50 or 100 years’ time and that management and governance will need to adapt accordingly

Assessing the risk of climate change to aquaculture: a national-scale case study for the Sultanate of Oman

Aquaculture is expanding globally and is an increasingly important component of world food security. However, climate change can impact aquaculture through a variety of mechanisms varying by location and aquaculture type with implications for future productivity. Understanding the risks that climate change poses on different culture systems in different locations is important to enable the design of targeted adaptation and resilience building actions. Here we present an aquaculture climate risk assessment framework, applied to the aquaculture sector of the Sultanate of Oman, that identifies the sensitivity and exposure of different components of the sector to climate change risk. Oman has aspirations to significantly expand aquaculture over the next decade focussing on coastal shrimp ponds, finfish sea cages, land-based recirculating aquaculture systems, and ponds and raceways. We quantify overall climate risk as the combination of four risks: (1) species’ temperature sensitivity, (2) flooding and storm surge exposure, (3) low-oxygen hazard and (4) disease vulnerability. Shrimp culture is identified as highest risk due to high exposure of shrimp ponds to flooding and storm surges, and high disease vulnerability. Seabream cage farming also faces high risk due to high thermal sensitivity and high potential of low-oxygen levels affecting sea cages. Following the risk assessment a stakeholder workshop was conducted to identify targeted adaptation measures for the different components of the sector. The framework for assessing climate risk to aquaculture demonstrated here is equally applicable at the regional, national or sub-national scale to support design of targeted resilience building actions and enhance food security

Public awareness, concerns, and priorities about anthropogenic impacts on marine environments

Numerous international bodies have advocated the development of strategies to achieve the sustainability of marine environments. Typically, such strategies are based on information from expert groups about causes of degradation and policy options to address them, but these strategies rarely take into account assessed information about public awareness, concerns, and priorities. Here we report the results of a pan-European survey of public perceptions about marine environmental impacts as a way to inform the formation of science and policy priorities. On the basis of 10,106 responses to an online survey from people in 10 European nations, spanning a diversity of socioeconomic and geographical areas, we examine the public’s informedness and concern regarding marine impacts, trust in different information sources, and priorities for policy and funding. Results show that the level of concern regarding marine impacts is closely associated with the level of informedness and that pollution and overfishing are two areas prioritized by the public for policy development. The level of trust varies greatly among different information sources and is highest for academics and scholarly publications but lower for government or industry scientists. Results suggest that the public perceives the immediacy of marine anthropogenic impacts and is highly concerned about ocean pollution, overfishing, and ocean acidification. Eliciting public awareness, concerns, and priorities can enable scientists and funders to understand how the public relates to marine environments, frame impacts, and align managerial and policy priorities with public demand

Diets of the Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua) from the 1930s to 2018

A new dataset on the diet of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea from the 1930s to the present day has been compiled to produce one of the largest fish diet datasets available globally. Atlantic cod is one of the most ecologically and commercially important fish species in the North Atlantic. The stock in the Barents Sea is by far the largest, as a result of both successful management and favourable environmental conditions since the early 2000s. As a top predator, cod plays a key role in the Barents Sea ecosystem. The species has a broad diet consisting mainly of crustaceans and teleost fish, and both the amount and type of prey vary in space and time. The data – from Russia, Norway and the United Kingdom – represent quantitative stomach content records from more than 400 000 fish and qualitative data from 2.5 million fish. Many of the data are from joint collaborative surveys between Norway and Russia. The sampling was conducted throughout each year, allowing for seasonal, annual and decadal comparisons to be made. Visual analysis shows cod diets have changed considerably from the start of the dataset in the 1930s to the present day. There was a large proportion of herring in the diets in the 1930s, whereas in more recent decades capelin, invertebrates and other fish dominate. There are also significant interannual asynchronous fluctuations in prey, particularly capelin and euphausiids. Combining these datasets can help us understand how the environment and ecosystems are responding to climatic changes, and what influences the diet and prey switching of cod. Trends in temperature and variability indices can be tested against the occurrence of different prey items, and the effects of fishing pressure on cod and prey stocks on diet composition could be investigated. The dataset will also enable us to improve parametrization of food web models and to forecast how Barents Sea fisheries may respond in the future to management and to climate change. The Russian data are available through joint projects with the Polar Branch of the Russian Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (VNIRO).publishedVersio

Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: An operationalized framework for aquaculture projections

Climate-driven changes in aquatic environments have already started to affect the European aquaculture sector’s most commercially important finfish and shellfish species. In addition to changes in water quality and temperature that can directly influence fish production by altering health status, growth performance and/or feed conversion, the aquaculture sector also faces an uncertain future in terms of production costs and returns. For example, the availability of key ingredients for fish feeds (proteins, omega-3 fatty acids) will not only depend on future changes in climate, but also on social and political factors, thereby influencing feed costs. The future cost of energy, another main expenditure for fish farms, will also depend on various factors. Finally, marketing options and subsidies will have major impacts on future aquaculture profitability. Based on the framework of four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU H2020 project climate change and European aquatic resources (CERES), we defined how these key factors for the aquaculture sector could change in the future. We then apply these scenarios to make projections of how climate change and societal and economic trends influence the mid-century (2050) profitability of European aquaculture. We used an established benchmarking approach to contrast present-day and future economic performance of “typical farms” in selected European production regions under each of the scenarios termed “World Markets,” “National Enterprise,” “Global Sustainability” and “Local Stewardship.” These scenarios were based partly on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios framework and their representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the widely used shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Together, these scenarios contrast local versus international emphasis on decision making, more versus less severe environmental change, and different consequences for producers due to future commodity prices, cash returns, and costs. The mid-century profitability of the typical farms was most sensitive to the future development of feed costs, price trends of returns, and marketing options as opposed to the direct effect of climate-driven changes in the environment. These results can inform adaptation planning by the European aquaculture sector. Moreover, applying consistent scenarios including societal and economic dimensions, facilitates regional to global comparisons of adaptation advice both within and across Blue Growth sectors

Disaster risk in Caribbean fisheries: How vulnerability is shaped and how it can be reduced in Dominica and Antigua and Barbuda

Hurricanes and tropical storms have a substantial and sustained influence on fisheries globally. These threats present particularly significant challenges in Caribbean islands, where fisheries contribute towards economies, food security, and social and cultural identities. Yet, storm impacts on coastal communities and fisheries are a relatively neglected area of disaster risk reduction. In response, this paper reports on a novel application and adaptation of the Pressure and Release model (PAR) focused on Caribbean Island fisheries. The PAR is a wellestablished framework used to understand how vulnerability manifests and to identify appropriate policy and management options to reduce vulnerability and build resilience in the longer-term. This research highlights how this approach can expose underlying social, cultural, and economic factors that can either reduce or exacerbate vulnerability in the Caribbean island fisheries sector following extreme weather events using Dominica and Antigua and Barbuda as case studies. This study combines a literature review compiling data on underlying factors of vulnerability for Caribbean Island fisheries, with in-person interviews with fisheries managers from Dominica, and Antigua and Barbuda. It showcases the utility of the PAR in fisheries-focused recovery, and provides empirical evidence that fisheries play an important role in supporting immediate and medium-term coping and recovery after an extreme storm event. This approach has broader relevance for climate change adaptation as it highlights strategies for building resilience for fisheries-dependent societies