Interest Rates, Money Supply Announcements, and Monetary Base Announcements

This paper presents a new set of empirical regularities on the link between interest rates, money supply announcements and monetary base announcements. Among the main findings reported are: (i) unexpected increases in the announced monetary base have a significantly positive effect on interest rates during the period from October 1979 to October 1982; (ii) although unexpected money supply and monetary base announcements have the same impact on interest rates, they have different implications for the future behavior of the money supply and monetary base; (iii) the significant response of longer-term interest rates to unexpected monetary announcements is reflecting a response of current and expected future short-term rates -- i.e.term-structure premia are not altered by these announcements.

Natural Selection and Morphological Variability: The Case of Europe From Neolithic to Modern Times [Comment]

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/20200

Testing The Autocorrelation Structure of Disturbances in Ordinary Least Squares and Instrumental Variables Regressions

This paper derives the asymptotic distribution for a vector of sample autocorrelations of regression residuals from a quite general linear model. The asymptotic distribution forms the basis for a test of the null hypothesis that the regression error follows a moving average of order q [greaterthan or equal] 0 against the general alternative that autocorrelations of the regression error are non-zero at lags greater than q. By allowing for endogenous, predetermined and/or exogenous regressors, for estimation by either ordinary least squares or a number of instrumental variables techniques, for the case q>0, and for a conditionally heteroscedastic error term, the test described here is applicable in a variety of situations where such popular tests as the Box-Pierce (1970) test, Durbin's (1970) h test, and Godfrey's (1978b) Lagrange multiplier test are net applicable. The finite sample properties of the test are examined in Monte Carlo simulations where, with a sample sizes of 50 and 100 observations, the test appears to be quite reliable.

The Predictability of Real Exchange Rate Changes in the Short and Long Run

Nominal exchange rates do not move to offset differences in inflation rates on a month to month, quarter to quarter, or even year to year basis, resulting in sizable real exchange rate changes. Are these changes predictable? We address this question in three ways. First, we describe a variety of tests of predictability and explain how the different tests are related. Next, we implement the tests for the U.S. dollar relative to four currencies and find statistically significant evidence that real exchange rate changes are predictable. Finally, we examine whether the predictability is of an economically interesting magnitude.

Two-Step Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation in Models with Rational Expectations

This paper introduces a limited-information two-step estimator for models with rational expectations and serially correlated disturbances. The estimator greatly extends the area of applicability of McCallum's (1976) instrumental variables approach to rational expectations models. Section I reviews McCallum%s method and discusses in detail the problems surrounding its use in many empirical c/ntexts. Section II presents the two-step two-stage least squares estimator (2S2S1) and demonstrates its efficiency relative to that of McCallum (1979). Section III provides a comparison nf several estim!tors for a two equation macroeconomic model with rational expectations due to Taylor (1979).

Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) isolated from bean sprouts in the Netherlands

Community-acquired carriage and infections due to extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) are increasing worldwide, resulting in increased morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. The origins of community-acquired ESBL-E carriage and infections remain unclear. Bean sprouts are a potential source of Enterobacteriaceae for the community, as illustrated by outbreaks of pathogenic Enterobacteriaceae in the past. The current study focuses on contamination of retail bean sprouts with ESBL-E in the Netherlands. Of 131 bean sprout samples purchased between 2013 and 2016, 25 (19%) were contaminated with ESBL-E. The detected isolates were almost exclusively Klebsiella spp. and co-resistance to other antibiotics was observed frequently. Over time there was substantial genetic diversity between isolates. On the other hand, isolates from samples closely matched in time were frequently clonally related, indicative of batch contamination. Remarkably, no Escherichia coli was found. In conclusion, bean sprouts frequently harbor ESBL-E, which is a potential source for consumers

Relationship Between Childhood Peer Rejection and Aggression and Adolescent Delinquency Severity and Type Among African American Youth

This prospective, longitudinal study examined peer rejection and aggression in childhood as predictors of the severity and type of delinquency during adolescence. Sociometric surveys were completed at third grade for a predominantly low-socioeconomic status, urban sample of African American boys and girls, and youth reports of delinquency were gathered at Grades 6, 8, and 10. Patterns of association between childhood peer rejection and aggression and delinquency severity varied by gender. For boys, the additive effect of childhood peer rejection and aggression was a strong predictor of more serious delinquency, whereas for girls only aggression predicted more serious delinquency. For boys, the combination of peer rejection and aggression was associated with felony assaults, and aggression was associated with a wide diversity of offenses during adolescence, whereas for girls only peer rejection predicted involvement in minor assault. Results are discussed in terms of the early starter pathway of antisocial behavior as it relates to peer rejection and aggression for boys, differing predictive patterns for girls, and implications for intervention with children with emotional and behavioral disorders.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Genome-Wide Association Study and Gene Expression Analysis Identifies CD84 as a Predictor of Response to Etanercept Therapy in Rheumatoid Arthritis

Anti-tumor necrosis factor alpha (anti-TNF) biologic therapy is a widely used treatment for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). It is unknown why some RA patients fail to respond adequately to anti-TNF therapy, which limits the development of clinical biomarkers to predict response or new drugs to target refractory cases. To understand the biological basis of response to anti-TNF therapy, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of more than 2 million common variants in 2,706 RA patients from 13 different collections. Patients were treated with one of three anti-TNF medications: etanercept (n = 733), infliximab (n = 894), or adalimumab (n = 1,071). We identified a SNP (rs6427528) at the 1q23 locus that was associated with change in disease activity score (ΔDAS) in the etanercept subset of patients (P = 8×10-8), but not in the infliximab or adalimumab subsets (P>0.05). The SNP is predicted to disrupt transcription factor binding site motifs in the 3′ UTR of an immune-related gene, CD84, and the allele associated with better response to etanercept was associated with higher CD84 gene expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (P = 1×10-11 in 228 non-RA patients and P = 0.004 in 132 RA patients). Consistent with the genetic findings, higher CD84 gene expression correlated with lower cross-sectional DAS (P = 0.02, n = 210) and showed a non-significant trend for better ΔDAS in a subset of RA patients with gene expression data (n = 31, etanercept-treated). A small, multi-ethnic replication showed a non-significant trend towards an association among etanercept-treated RA patients of Portuguese ancestry (n = 139, P = 0.4), but no association among patients of Japanese ancestry (n = 151, P = 0.8). Our study demonstrates that an allele associated with response to etanercept therapy is also associated with CD84 gene expression, and further that CD84 expression correlates with disease activity. These findings support a model in which CD84 genotypes and/or expression may serve as a useful biomarker for response to etanercept treatment in RA patients of European ancestry. © 2013 Cui et al

Tumor biomarkers:association with heart failure outcomes

Background: There is increasing recognition that heart failure (HF) and cancer are conditions with a number of shared characteristics. Objectives: To explore the association between tumor biomarkers and HF outcomes. Methods: In 2,079 patients of BIOSTAT-CHF cohort, we measured six established tumor biomarkers: CA125, CA15-3, CA19-9, CEA, CYFRA 21-1, and AFP. Results: During a median follow-up of 21 months, 555 (27%) patients reached the primary endpoint of all-cause mortality. CA125, CYFRA 21-1, CEA, and CA19-9 levels were positively correlated with NT-proBNP quartiles (all P<0.001, P for trend <0.001), and were respectively associated with a hazard ratio of 1.17 (95% CI 1.12 – 1.23; P<0.0001), 1.45 (95% CI 1.30 – 1.61; P<0.0001), 1.19 (95% CI 1.09 – 1.30; P =0.006), and 1.10 (95% CI 1.05 – 1.16; P<0.001)for all-cause mortality after correction for BIOSTAT risk model (age, BUN, NT-proBNP, hemoglobin, and beta-blocker). All tumor biomarkers (except AFP) had significant associations with secondary endpoints (composite of all-cause mortality and HF hospitalization, HF hospitalization, cardiovascular (CV) mortality, and non-CV mortality). ROC curves showed the AUC of CYFRA 21-1 (0.64) had a non-inferior AUC compared to NT-proBNP (0.68) for all-cause mortality (P =0.08). A combination of CYFRA 21-1 and NT-proBNP (AUC =0.71) improved the predictive value of the model for all-cause mortality (P =0.0002 compared to NT-proBNP). Conclusions: Several established tumor biomarkers showed independent associations with indices of severity of HF and independent prognostic value for HF outcomes. This demonstrates that pathophysiological pathways sensed by these tumor biomarkers are also dysregulated in HF