Warm summers during the Younger Dryas cold reversal

The Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal interrupts the warming climate of the deglaciation with global climatic impacts. The sudden cooling is typically linked to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to meltwater discharges from ice sheets. However, inconsistencies regarding the YD-response of European summer temperatures have cast doubt whether the concept provides a sufficient explanation. Here we present results from a high-resolution global climate simulation together with a new July temperature compilation based on plant indicator species and show that European summers remain warm during the YD. Our climate simulation provides robust physical evidence that atmospheric blocking of cold westerly winds over Fennoscandia is a key mechanism counteracting the cooling impact of an AMOC-slowdown during summer. Despite the persistence of short warm summers, the YD is dominated by a shift to a continental climate with extreme winter to spring cooling and short growing seasons.Peer reviewe

Overdiagnosis and overuse of diagnostic and screening tests in low-income and middle-income countries: a scoping review

OBJECTIVE: Overdiagnosis and overuse of healthcare services harm individuals, take resources that could be used to address underuse, and threaten the sustainability of health systems. These problems are attracting increasing attention in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Unaware of any review of relevant evidence, we conducted a scoping review of the evidence around overdiagnosis and overuse of diagnostic and screening tests in LMICs. DESIGN: Scoping review. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase, PsycINFO, Global Index Medicus for relevant studies published until 24 May 2021, with no restrictions on date or language. We categorised included studies by major focus (overdiagnosis, overuse of tests, or both) and main themes (presence or estimates of extent; drivers; consequences and solutions). RESULTS: We identified 2763 unique records and included 162 articles reporting on 154 studies across 55 countries, involving over 2.8 million participants and/or requests for tests. Almost half the studies focused on overdiagnosis (70; 45.5%), one-third on overuse of tests (61; 39.6%) and one-fifth on both (23; 14.9%). Common overdiagnosed conditions included malaria (61; 39.6%) and thyroid cancer (25; 16.2%), estimated to be >70% in China. Overused tests included imaging (n=25 studies) such as CT and MRI; laboratory investigations (n=18) such as serological tests and tumour markers; and procedures (n=14) such as colonoscopy. Drivers included fear of conflict with patients and expanding disease definitions. Common consequences included unnecessary treatments such as antimalarials, and wasted resources, with costs of malaria overdiagnosis estimated at US$86 million in Sudan in 1 year alone. Only 9% of studies discussed solutions, which included addressing inappropriately lowered diagnostic thresholds and reforming test-ordering processes. CONCLUSIONS: Overdiagnosis and overuse of tests are widespread in LMICs and generate significant harm and waste. Better understanding of the problems and robust evaluation of solutions is needed, informed by a new global alliance of researchers and policy-makers

Reforming disease definitions: a new primary care led, people-centred approach

Expanding disease definitions are causing more and more previously healthy people to be labelled as diseased, contributing to the problem of overdiagnosis and related overtreatment. Often the specialist guideline panels which expand definitions have close tis to industry and do not investigate the harms of defining more people as sick. Responding to growing calls to address these problems, an international group of leading researchers and clinicians is proposing a new way to set diagnostic thresholds and mark the boundaries of condition definitions, to try to tackle a key driver of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. The group proposes new evidence-informed principles, with new process and new people constituting new multi-disciplinary panels, free from financial conflicts of interest

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on utilisation of healthcare services: a systematic review

Objectives To determine the extent and nature of changes in utilisation of healthcare services during COVID-19 pandemic.Design Systematic review.Eligibility Eligible studies compared utilisation of services during COVID-19 pandemic to at least one comparable period in prior years. Services included visits, admissions, diagnostics and therapeutics. Studies were excluded if from single centres or studied only patients with COVID-19.Data sources PubMed, Embase, Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register and preprints were searched, without language restrictions, until 10 August, using detailed searches with key concepts including COVID-19, health services and impact.Data analysis Risk of bias was assessed by adapting the Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies of Interventions tool, and a Cochrane Effective Practice and Organization of Care tool. Results were analysed using descriptive statistics, graphical figures and narrative synthesis.Outcome measures Primary outcome was change in service utilisation between prepandemic and pandemic periods. Secondary outcome was the change in proportions of users of healthcare services with milder or more severe illness (eg, triage scores).Results 3097 unique references were identified, and 81 studies across 20 countries included, reporting on >11 million services prepandemic and 6.9 million during pandemic. For the primary outcome, there were 143 estimates of changes, with a median 37% reduction in services overall (IQR −51% to −20%), comprising median reductions for visits of 42% (−53% to −32%), admissions 28% (−40% to −17%), diagnostics 31% (−53% to −24%) and for therapeutics 30% (−57% to −19%). Among 35 studies reporting secondary outcomes, there were 60 estimates, with 27 (45%) reporting larger reductions in utilisation among people with a milder spectrum of illness, and 33 (55%) reporting no difference.Conclusions Healthcare utilisation decreased by about a third during the pandemic, with considerable variation, and with greater reductions among people with less severe illness. While addressing unmet need remains a priority, studies of health impacts of reductions may help health systems reduce unnecessary care in the postpandemic recovery.PROSPERO registration number CRD42020203729

The Scandinavian Sarcoma Group Central Register : 6,000 patients after 25 years of monitoring of referral and treatment of extremity and trunk wall soft-tissue sarcoma

Purpose - We wanted to examine the potential of the Scandinavian Sarcoma Group (SSG) Central Register, and evaluate referral and treatment practice for soft-tissue sarcomas in the extremities and trunk wall (STS) in the Nordic countries. Background - Based on incidence rates from the literature, 8,150 (7,000-9,300) cases of STS of the extremity and trunk wall should have been diagnosed in Norway, Finland, Iceland, and Sweden from 1987 through 2011. The SSG Register has 6,027 cases registered from this period, with 5,837 having complete registration of key variables. 10 centers have been reporting to the Register. The 5 centers that consistently report treat approximately 90% of the cases in their respective regions. The remaining centers have reported all the patients who were treated during certain time periods, but not for the entire 25-year period. Results - 59% of patients were referred to a sarcoma center untouched, i.e. before any attempt at open biopsy. There was an improvement from 52% during the first 5 years to 70% during the last 5 years. 50% had wide or better margins at surgery. Wide margins are now achieved less often than 20 years ago, in parallel with an increase in the use of radiotherapy. For the centers that consistently report, 97% of surviving patients are followed for more than 4 years. Metastasis-free survival (MFS) increased from 67% to 73% during the 25-year period. Interpretation - The Register is considered to be representative of extremity and trunk wall sarcoma disease in the population of Scandinavia, treated at the reporting centers. There were no clinically significant differences in treatment results at these centers.Peer reviewe

Effect of Adjuvant Trastuzumab for a Duration of 9 Weeks vs 1 Year With Concomitant Chemotherapy for Early Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-Positive Breast Cancer The SOLD Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE Trastuzumab plus chemotherapy is the standard adjuvant treatment for patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive early breast cancer. While the standard duration of trastuzumab treatment is 12 months, the benefits and harms of trastuzumab continued beyond the chemotherapy are unclear. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the efficacy and safety of adjuvant trastuzumab continued beyond chemotherapy in women treated with up-front chemotherapy containing a taxane and trastuzumab. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Open-label, randomized (1: 1) clinical trial including women with HER2-positive breast cancer. Chemotherapy was identical in the 2 groups, consisting of 3 cycles of 3-weekly docetaxel (either 80 or 100 mg/m(2)) plus trastuzumab for 9 weeks, followed by 3 cycles of fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide. Thereafter, no trastuzumab was administered in the 9-week group, whereas controls received trastuzumab to complete 1 year of administration. Disease-free survival (DFS) was compared between the groups using a Cox model and the noninferiority approach. The estimated sample size was 2168 patients (1-sided testing, with a relative noninferiority margin of 1.3). From January 3, 2008, to December 16, 2014, 2176 patients were accrued from 7 countries. INTERVENTION Docetaxel plus trastuzumab for 9 weeks, followed by 3 cycles of fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide in both groups. Controls continued trastuzumab to 1 year. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary objectivewas DFS; secondary objectives included distant disease-free survival, overall survival, cardiac DFS, and safety. RESULTS In the 2174 women analyzed, median age was 56 (interquartile range [IQR], 48-64) years. The median follow-up was 5.2 (IQR, 3.8-6.7) years. Noninferiority of the 9-week treatment could not be demonstrated for DFS (hazard ratio, 1.39; 2-sided 90% CI, 1.12-1.72). Distant disease-free survival and overall survival did not differ substantially between the groups. Thirty-six (3%) and 21 (2%) patients in the 1-year and the 9-week groups, respectively, had cardiac failure; the left ventricle ejection fraction was better maintained in the 9-week group. An interaction was detected between the docetaxel dose and DFS; patients in the 9-week group treated with 80 mg/m(2) had inferior and those treated with 100 mg/m(2) had similar DFS as patients in the 1-year group. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Nine weeks of trastuzumab was not noninferior to 1 year of trastuzumab when given with similar chemotherapy. Cardiac safety was better in the 9-week group. The docetaxel dosing with trastuzumab requires further study.Peer reviewe

Low free 25-hydroxyvitamin D and high vitamin D binding protein and parathyroid hormone in obese Caucasians. A complex association with bone?

Background Studies have shown altered vitamin D metabolism in obesity. We assessed differences between obese and normal-weight subjects in total, free, and bioavailable 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH) D, 25(OH) D-Free, and 25(OH) D-Bio, respectively), vitamin D binding protein (DBP), parathyroid hormone (PTH) and bone traits. Methods 595 37-47-year-old healthy Finnish men and women stratified by BMI were examined in this cross-sectional study. Background characteristic and intakes of vitamin D and calcium were collected. The concentrations of 25(OH) D, PTH, DBP, albumin and bone turnover markers were determined from blood. 25(OH) D-Free and 25(OH) D-Bio were calculated. pQCT was performed at radius and tibia. Results Mean +/- SE (ANCOVA) 25(OH) D-Free (10.8 +/- 0.6 vs 12.9 +/- 0.4 nmol/L; P = 0.008) and 25(OH) DBio (4.1 +/- 0.3 vs 5.1 +/- 0.1 nmol/L; P = 0.003) were lower in obese than in normal-weight women. In men, 25(OH) D (48.0 +/- 2.4 vs 56.4 +/- 2.0 nmol/L, P = 0.003), 25(OH) D-Free (10.3 +/- 0.7 vs 12.5 +/- 0.6 pmol/L; P = 0.044) and 25(OH) D-Bio (4.2 +/- 0.3 vs 5.1 +/- 0.2 nmol/L; P = 0.032) were lower in obese. Similarly in all subjects, 25(OH) D, 25(OH) D-Free and 25(OH) D-Bio were lower in obese (P Conclusions The associations between BMI and 25(OH) D, 25(OH) D-Free, and 25(OH) D-Bio, DBP, and PTH suggest that obese subjects may differ from normal-weight subjects in vitamin D metabolism. BMI associated positively with trabecular bone traits and CSI in our study, and slightly negatively with cortical bone traits. Surprisingly, there was a negative association of free and bioavailable 25(OH) D and some of the bone traits in obese women.Peer reviewe

Common Inflammation-Related Candidate Gene Variants and Acute Kidney Injury in 2647 Critically Ill Finnish Patients

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a syndrome with high incidence among the critically ill. Because the clinical variables and currently used biomarkers have failed to predict the individual susceptibility to AKI, candidate gene variants for the trait have been studied. Studies about genetic predisposition to AKI have been mainly underpowered and of moderate quality. We report the association study of 27 genetic variants in a cohort of Finnish critically ill patients, focusing on the replication of associations detected with variants in genes related to inflammation, cell survival, or circulation. In this prospective, observational Finnish Acute Kidney Injury (FINNAKI) study, 2647 patients without chronic kidney disease were genotyped. We defined AKI according to Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria. We compared severe AKI (Stages 2 and 3, n = 625) to controls (Stage 0, n = 1582). For genotyping we used iPLEX(TM) Assay (Agena Bioscience). We performed the association analyses with PLINK software, using an additive genetic model in logistic regression. Despite the numerous, although contradictory, studies about association between polymorphisms rs1800629 in TNFA and rs1800896 in IL10 and AKI, we found no association (odds ratios 1.06 (95% CI 0.89-1.28, p = 0.51) and 0.92 (95% CI 0.80-1.05, p = 0.20), respectively). Adjusting for confounders did not change the results. To conclude, we could not confirm the associations reported in previous studies in a cohort of critically ill patients.Peer reviewe