Are Ballot Initiative Outcomes Influenced by the Campaigns of Independent Groups? A Precinct-Randomized Field Experiment

Ballot initiatives are consequential and common, with total spending on initiative campaigns in the US rivaling that of Presidential campaigns. Observational studies using regression approaches on observational data have alternately found that initiative campaign spending cannot affect initiative outcomes, can increase the number of votes rejecting (but not approving) initiatives, or can affect outcomes in either direction. We report the first well-powered precinct randomized field experiment to evaluate an initiative advocacy campaign. We find that campaigns can influence both rejection and approval of initiatives by changing how citizens vote, as opposed to by influencing turnout or ballot completion. Our experiment (involving around 18% of Oregon households in 2008) studied a statewide mail program conducted by a Political Action Committee. Results further suggest that two initiatives would have passed if not for the advocacy campaign to reject them. We discuss implications for theories about direct democracy, campaign finance, and campaign effects

Hysteresis and hierarchies: dynamics of disorder-driven first-order phase transformations

We use the zero-temperature random-field Ising model to study hysteretic behavior at first-order phase transitions. Sweeping the external field through zero, the model exhibits hysteresis, the return-point memory effect, and avalanche fluctuations. There is a critical value of disorder at which a jump in the magnetization (corresponding to an infinite avalanche) first occurs. We study the universal behavior at this critical point using mean-field theory, and also present preliminary results of numerical simulations in three dimensions.Comment: 12 pages plus 2 appended figures, plain TeX, CU-MSC-747

Restricted Isometries for Partial Random Circulant Matrices

In the theory of compressed sensing, restricted isometry analysis has become a standard tool for studying how efficiently a measurement matrix acquires information about sparse and compressible signals. Many recovery algorithms are known to succeed when the restricted isometry constants of the sampling matrix are small. Many potential applications of compressed sensing involve a data-acquisition process that proceeds by convolution with a random pulse followed by (nonrandom) subsampling. At present, the theoretical analysis of this measurement technique is lacking. This paper demonstrates that the $s$th order restricted isometry constant is small when the number $m$ of samples satisfies $m \gtrsim (s \log n)^{3/2}$, where $n$ is the length of the pulse. This bound improves on previous estimates, which exhibit quadratic scaling

Agreement Between Magnetic Resonance Imaging Proton Density Fat Fraction Measurements and Pathologist-assigned Steatosis Grades of Liver Biopsies from Adults with Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis

Background & Aims We assessed the diagnostic performance of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) proton density fat fraction (PDFF) in grading hepatic steatosis and change in hepatic steatosis in adults with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in a multi-center study, using central histology as reference. Methods We collected data from 113 adults with NASH participating in a multi-center, randomized, double-masked, placebo-controlled, phase 2b trial to compare the efficacy cross-sectionally and longitudinally of obeticholic acid vs placebo. Hepatic steatosis was assessed at baseline and after 72 weeks of obeticholic acid or placebo by liver biopsy and MRI (scanners from different manufacturers, at 1.5T or 3T). We compared steatosis estimates by PDFF vs histology. Histologic steatosis grade was scored in consensus by a pathology committee. Cross-validated receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed. Results At baseline, 34% of subjects had steatosis grade 0 or 1, 39% had steatosis grade 2, and 27% had steatosis grade 3; corresponding mean PDFF values were 9.8%±3.7%, 18.1%±4.3%, and 30.1%±8.1%. PDFF classified steatosis grade 0–1 vs 2–3 with an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of 0.95 (95% CI, 0.91–0.98), and grade 0–2 vs grade 3 steatosis with an AUROC of 0.96 (95% CI, 0.93–0.99). PDFF cut-off values at 90% specificity were 16.3% for grades 2–3 and 21.7% for grade 3, with corresponding sensitivities of 83% and 84%. After 72 weeks' of obeticholic vs placebo, 42% of subjects had a reduced steatosis grade (mean reduction in PDFF from baseline of 7.4%±8.7%), 49% had no change in steatosis grade (mean increase in PDFF from baseline of 0.3%±6.3%), and 9% had an increased steatosis grade (mean increase in PDFF from baseline of 7.7%±6.0%). PDFF change identified subjects with reduced steatosis grade with an AUROC of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.71–0.91) and increased steatosis grade with an AUROC of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.63–0.99). A PDFF reduction of 5.15% identified subjects with reduced steatosis grade with 90% specificity and 58% sensitivity, whereas a PDFF increase of 5.6% identified those with increased steatosis grade with 90% specificity and 57% sensitivity. Conclusions Based on data from a phase 2 randomized controlled trial of adults with NASH, PDFF estimated by MRI scanners of different field strength and at different sites, accurately classifies grades and changes in hepatic steatosis when histologic analysis of biopsies is used as a reference

Comprehensive in vivo Mapping of the Human Basal Ganglia and Thalamic Connectome in Individuals Using 7T MRI

Basal ganglia circuits are affected in neurological disorders such as Parkinson's disease (PD), essential tremor, dystonia and Tourette syndrome. Understanding the structural and functional connectivity of these circuits is critical for elucidating the mechanisms of the movement and neuropsychiatric disorders, and is vital for developing new therapeutic strategies such as deep brain stimulation (DBS). Knowledge about the connectivity of the human basal ganglia and thalamus has rapidly evolved over recent years through non-invasive imaging techniques, but has remained incomplete because of insufficient resolution and sensitivity of these techniques. Here, we present an imaging and computational protocol designed to generate a comprehensive in vivo and subject-specific, three-dimensional model of the structure and connections of the human basal ganglia. High-resolution structural and functional magnetic resonance images were acquired with a 7-Tesla magnet. Capitalizing on the enhanced signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and enriched contrast obtained at high-field MRI, detailed structural and connectivity representations of the human basal ganglia and thalamus were achieved. This unique combination of multiple imaging modalities enabled the in-vivo visualization of the individual human basal ganglia and thalamic nuclei, the reconstruction of seven white-matter pathways and their connectivity probability that, to date, have only been reported in animal studies, histologically, or group-averaged MRI population studies. Also described are subject-specific parcellations of the basal ganglia and thalamus into sub-territories based on their distinct connectivity patterns. These anatomical connectivity findings are supported by functional connectivity data derived from resting-state functional MRI (R-fMRI). This work demonstrates new capabilities for studying basal ganglia circuitry, and opens new avenues of investigation into the movement and neuropsychiatric disorders, in individual human subjects

A new framework for cortico-striatal plasticity: behavioural theory meets In vitro data at the reinforcement-action interface

Operant learning requires that reinforcement signals interact with action representations at a suitable neural interface. Much evidence suggests that this occurs when phasic dopamine, acting as a reinforcement prediction error, gates plasticity at cortico-striatal synapses, and thereby changes the future likelihood of selecting the action(s) coded by striatal neurons. But this hypothesis faces serious challenges. First, cortico-striatal plasticity is inexplicably complex, depending on spike timing, dopamine level, and dopamine receptor type. Second, there is a credit assignment problem—action selection signals occur long before the consequent dopamine reinforcement signal. Third, the two types of striatal output neuron have apparently opposite effects on action selection. Whether these factors rule out the interface hypothesis and how they interact to produce reinforcement learning is unknown. We present a computational framework that addresses these challenges. We first predict the expected activity changes over an operant task for both types of action-coding striatal neuron, and show they co-operate to promote action selection in learning and compete to promote action suppression in extinction. Separately, we derive a complete model of dopamine and spike-timing dependent cortico-striatal plasticity from in vitro data. We then show this model produces the predicted activity changes necessary for learning and extinction in an operant task, a remarkable convergence of a bottom-up data-driven plasticity model with the top-down behavioural requirements of learning theory. Moreover, we show the complex dependencies of cortico-striatal plasticity are not only sufficient but necessary for learning and extinction. Validating the model, we show it can account for behavioural data describing extinction, renewal, and reacquisition, and replicate in vitro experimental data on cortico-striatal plasticity. By bridging the levels between the single synapse and behaviour, our model shows how striatum acts as the action-reinforcement interface

Mortality Among Adults With Cancer Undergoing Chemotherapy or Immunotherapy and Infected With COVID-19

Importance: Large cohorts of patients with active cancers and COVID-19 infection are needed to provide evidence of the association of recent cancer treatment and cancer type with COVID-19 mortality. // Objective: To evaluate whether systemic anticancer treatments (SACTs), tumor subtypes, patient demographic characteristics (age and sex), and comorbidities are associated with COVID-19 mortality. // Design, Setting, and Participants: The UK Coronavirus Cancer Monitoring Project (UKCCMP) is a prospective cohort study conducted at 69 UK cancer hospitals among adult patients (≥18 years) with an active cancer and a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19. Patients registered from March 18 to August 1, 2020, were included in this analysis. // Exposures: SACT, tumor subtype, patient demographic characteristics (eg, age, sex, body mass index, race and ethnicity, smoking history), and comorbidities were investigated. // Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was all-cause mortality within the primary hospitalization. // Results: Overall, 2515 of 2786 patients registered during the study period were included; 1464 (58%) were men; and the median (IQR) age was 72 (62-80) years. The mortality rate was 38% (966 patients). The data suggest an association between higher mortality in patients with hematological malignant neoplasms irrespective of recent SACT, particularly in those with acute leukemias or myelodysplastic syndrome (OR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.30-3.60) and myeloma or plasmacytoma (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.04-2.26). Lung cancer was also significantly associated with higher COVID-19–related mortality (OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.11-2.25). No association between higher mortality and receiving chemotherapy in the 4 weeks before COVID-19 diagnosis was observed after correcting for the crucial confounders of age, sex, and comorbidities. An association between lower mortality and receiving immunotherapy in the 4 weeks before COVID-19 diagnosis was observed (immunotherapy vs no cancer therapy: OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.31-0.86). // Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study of patients with active cancer suggest that recent SACT is not associated with inferior outcomes from COVID-19 infection. This has relevance for the care of patients with cancer requiring treatment, particularly in countries experiencing an increase in COVID-19 case numbers. Important differences in outcomes among patients with hematological and lung cancers were observed

Case Reports1. A Late Presentation of Loeys-Dietz Syndrome: Beware of TGFβ Receptor Mutations in Benign Joint Hypermobility

Background: Thoracic aortic aneurysms (TAA) and dissections are not uncommon causes of sudden death in young adults. Loeys-Dietz syndrome (LDS) is a rare, recently described, autosomal dominant, connective tissue disease characterized by aggressive arterial aneurysms, resulting from mutations in the transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ) receptor genes TGFBR1 and TGFBR2. Mean age at death is 26.1 years, most often due to aortic dissection. We report an unusually late presentation of LDS, diagnosed following elective surgery in a female with a long history of joint hypermobility. Methods: A 51-year-old Caucasian lady complained of chest pain and headache following a dural leak from spinal anaesthesia for an elective ankle arthroscopy. CT scan and echocardiography demonstrated a dilated aortic root and significant aortic regurgitation. MRA demonstrated aortic tortuosity, an infrarenal aortic aneurysm and aneurysms in the left renal and right internal mammary arteries. She underwent aortic root repair and aortic valve replacement. She had a background of long-standing joint pains secondary to hypermobility, easy bruising, unusual fracture susceptibility and mild bronchiectasis. She had one healthy child age 32, after which she suffered a uterine prolapse. Examination revealed mild Marfanoid features. Uvula, skin and ophthalmological examination was normal. Results: Fibrillin-1 testing for Marfan syndrome (MFS) was negative. Detection of a c.1270G > C (p.Gly424Arg) TGFBR2 mutation confirmed the diagnosis of LDS. Losartan was started for vascular protection. Conclusions: LDS is a severe inherited vasculopathy that usually presents in childhood. It is characterized by aortic root dilatation and ascending aneurysms. There is a higher risk of aortic dissection compared with MFS. Clinical features overlap with MFS and Ehlers Danlos syndrome Type IV, but differentiating dysmorphogenic features include ocular hypertelorism, bifid uvula and cleft palate. Echocardiography and MRA or CT scanning from head to pelvis is recommended to establish the extent of vascular involvement. Management involves early surgical intervention, including early valve-sparing aortic root replacement, genetic counselling and close monitoring in pregnancy. Despite being caused by loss of function mutations in either TGFβ receptor, paradoxical activation of TGFβ signalling is seen, suggesting that TGFβ antagonism may confer disease modifying effects similar to those observed in MFS. TGFβ antagonism can be achieved with angiotensin antagonists, such as Losartan, which is able to delay aortic aneurysm development in preclinical models and in patients with MFS. Our case emphasizes the importance of timely recognition of vasculopathy syndromes in patients with hypermobility and the need for early surgical intervention. It also highlights their heterogeneity and the potential for late presentation. Disclosures: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes