Moderate inflation and the deflation-depression link

In a recent paper, Atkeson and Kehoe (2004) demonstrated the lack of a robust empirical relationship between inflation and growth for a cross-section of countries with 19th and 20th century data, concluding that the historical evidence only provides weak support for the contention that deflation episodes are harmful to economic growth. In this paper, we revisit this relationship by allowing for inflation and growth to have a nonlinear specification dependent on inflation levels. In particular, we allow for the possibility that high inflation is negatively correlated with growth, while a positive relationship exists over the range of negative-to-moderate inflation. Our results confirm a positive relationship between inflation and growth at moderate inflation levels, and support the contention that the relationship between inflation and growth is non-linear over the entire sample range.Inflation (Finance)

Tracking magnetic bright point motions through the solar atmosphere

High-cadence, multiwavelength observations and simulations are employed for the analysis of solar photospheric magnetic bright points (MBPs) in the quiet Sun. The observations were obtained with the Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) imager and the Interferometric Bidimensional Spectrometer at the Dunn Solar Telescope. Our analysis reveals that photospheric MBPs have an average transverse velocity of approximately 1 km s−1, whereas their chromospheric counterparts have a slightly higher average velocity of 1.4 km s−1. Additionally, chromospheric MBPs were found to be around 63 per cent larger than the equivalent photospheric MBPs. These velocity values were compared with the output of numerical simulations generated using the MURAM code. The simulated results were similar, but slightly elevated, when compared to the observed data. An average velocity of 1.3 km s−1 was found in the simulated G-band images and an average of 1.8 km s−1 seen in the velocity domain at a height of 500 km above the continuum formation layer. Delays in the change of velocities were also analysed. Average delays of ∼4 s between layers of the simulated data set were established and values of ∼29 s observed between G-band and Ca II K ROSA observations. The delays in the simulations are likely to be the result of oblique granular shock waves, whereas those found in the observations are possibly the result of a semi-rigid flux tube

Nanoflare Activity in the Solar Chromosphere

We use ground-based images of high spatial and temporal resolution to search for evidence of nanoflare activity in the solar chromosphere. Through close examination of more than 10^9 pixels in the immediate vicinity of an active region, we show that the distributions of observed intensity fluctuations have subtle asymmetries. A negative excess in the intensity fluctuations indicates that more pixels have fainter-than-average intensities compared with those that appear brighter than average. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we reveal how the negative excess can be explained by a series of impulsive events, coupled with exponential decays, that are fractionally below the current resolving limits of low-noise equipment on high-resolution ground-based observatories. Importantly, our Monte Carlo simulations provide clear evidence that the intensity asymmetries cannot be explained by photon-counting statistics alone. A comparison to the coronal work of Terzo et al. (2011) suggests that nanoflare activity in the chromosphere is more readily occurring, with an impulsive event occurring every ~360s in a 10,000 km^2 area of the chromosphere, some 50 times more events than a comparably sized region of the corona. As a result, nanoflare activity in the chromosphere is likely to play an important role in providing heat energy to this layer of the solar atmosphere.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, accepted into Ap

The complexity of young children's physical education

This paper is based on the belief that young children’s physical education is a much more complex phenomenon than is often portrayed in the literature. Using key principles from complexity thinking, the paper discusses how, as children grow older, they iteratively engage in a self-organising process that involves regular negotiation of the personal and environmental boundaries that are part of their daily lives (Jess, 2019). From a physical education experiences, this recursive process involves engagement in a range of structured and unstructured learning activities that, to varying degrees, help children develop physical activity habits and movement competence. This complex mix of physical activity and movement learning is central to children developing the physical education foundation that will act as the catalyst for successful engagement in sport, dance and other physical activities as they get older (Howells, 2017). This complex learning process however is not a one-size-fits-all experience but a dynamic, emergent and non-linear process for each child and requires to be appropriately differentiated over time. Young children’s physical education is subsequently not something that should simply be left to chance but should be a focus of primary/elementary school and preschool/kindergarten programmes. Teachers and early years’ practitioners need to be supported to develop the knowledge and skills to ensure that young children are offered regular opportunities that help them develop physically active habits and movement control and coordination. Critically, these learning experiences should not be isolated to the gymnasium but should act as the basis of a meaning-making experience that connects physical education across children’s lives in school, the community and at home. The presentation concludes by offering suggestions as to how children’s physical activity habits and movement competence can be developed through a long term capacity building process. Howell, K., (2017) Developing Curiosity and Physical Development in Howells K., with Carney, A., Castle, N. and Little R., Mastering Primary Physical Education. Bloomsbury, London, UK. Jess, M (2019) The Complex Nature of Early Childhood Movement Skill Development, in Duncombe, R., (Ed), Young Children’s Physical Development Needs: (Re)Defining Physical Education in the Early Years, Taylor & Francis, London, U

THE DECLINE (AND REVIVAL?) OF BLACK FARMERS AND RURAL LANDOWNERS: A REVIEW OF THE RESEARCH LITERATURE

African-Americans as a group went from owning almost no land in the United States after the Civil War to peaking at 15 million acres by 1920. In that year, 14% of all US farmers were black. Of these 926,000 black farmers, all but 10,000 were in the South. By 1997, fewer than 20,000, or 1% of all farmers, were black, and they owned only about two million acres. The loss of landownership and farming operations has contributed to the poverty of many rural communities in the South. This paper consists of a review of 74 journal articles, reports, chapters, and books on African-Americans and farming, comprising most of the scholarly literature on the issue published since 1971. One of the commonalities in the literature is the sense of hopelessness in stemming the tide of black land loss. On the other hand, another commonality is the view that the black farmer and rural landowner must be sustained, even brought back. Among the studies are those claiming that landowners make up the backbone of civic and political life in rural black communities. Other advantages of landownership include increased personal pride, higher educational achievement of children, and an overall better sense of wellbeing. Most of the works offer similar perspectives of the decline of blacks in farming, and suggested solutions also are often repeated in these works. But there are differences in the works, and together they cover a wide range of issues that differentiate black farmers by sub-region, state, farm size, tenure, crops raised, and social and economic situation.Afro-American farmers -- Bibliography, Afro-American farmers -- Government policy -- United States -- Bibliography, Afro-American landowners -- Bibliography, Farm ownership -- United States -- Bibliography, Agrarian structure -- United States -- Bibliography, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use,

Reestablishing the income-democracy nexus

A number of recent empirical studies have cast doubt on the "modernization theory" of democratization, which posits that increases in income are conducive to increases in democracy levels. This doubt stems mainly from the fact that while a strong positive correlation exists between income and democracy levels, the relationship disappears when one controls for country fixed effects. This raises the possibility that the correlation in the data reflects a third causal characteristic, such as institutional quality. In this paper, we reexamine the robustness of the income-democracy relationship. We extend the research on this topic in two dimensions: first, we make use of newer income data, which allows for the construction of larger samples with more within-country observations. Second, we concentrate on panel estimation methods that explicitly allow for the fact that the primary measures of democracy are censored with substantial mass at the boundaries, or binary censored variables. Our results show that when one uses both the new income data available and a properly non linear estimator, a statistically significant positive income-democracy relationship is robust to the inclusion of country fixed effects.Income

JUNKYARD

Senior Project submitted to The Division of Languages and Literature of Bard College