Validating the use of hospital episode statistics data and comparison of costing methodologies for economic evaluation:An end-of-life case study from the cluster randomised triAl of PSA testing for prostate cancer (CAP)

Objectives To evaluate the accuracy of routine data for costing inpatient resource use in a large clinical trial and to investigate costing methodologies. Design Final-year inpatient cost profiles were derived using (1) data extracted from medical records mapped to the National Health Service (NHS) reference costs via service codes and (2) Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data using NHS reference costs. Trust finance departments were consulted to obtain costs for comparison purposes. Setting 7 UK secondary care centres. Population A subsample of 292 men identified as having died at least a year after being diagnosed with prostate cancer in Cluster randomised triAl of PSA testing for Prostate cancer (CAP), a long-running trial to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. Results Both inpatient cost profiles showed a rise in costs in the months leading up to death, and were broadly similar. The difference in mean inpatient costs was £899, with HES data yielding ∼8% lower costs than medical record data (differences compatible with chance, p=0.3). Events were missing from both data sets. 11 men (3.8%) had events identified in HES that were all missing from medical record review, while 7 men (2.4%) had events identified in medical record review that were all missing from HES. The response from finance departments to requests for cost data was poor: only 3 of 7 departments returned adequate data sets within 6 months. Conclusions Using HES routine data coupled with NHS reference costs resulted in mean annual inpatient costs that were very similar to those derived via medical record review; therefore, routinely available data can be used as the primary method of costing resource use in large clinical trials. Neither HES nor medical record review represent gold standards of data collection. Requesting cost data from finance departments is impractical for large clinical trials.</p

Quantitative analysis of calf mortality in Great Britain

National bodies in Great Britain (GB) have expressed concern over young stock health and welfare and identified calf survival as a priority; however, no national data have been available to quantify mortality rates. The aim of this study was to quantify the temporal incidence rate, distributional features, and factors affecting variation in mortality rates in calves in GB since 2011. The purpose was to provide information to national stakeholder groups to inform resource allocation both for knowledge exchange and future research. Cattle birth and death registrations from the national British Cattle Movement Service were analyzed to determine rates of both slaughter and on-farm mortality. The number of births and deaths registered between 2011 and 2018 within GB were 21.2 and 21.6 million, respectively. Of the 3.3 million on-farm deaths, 1.8 million occurred before 24 mo of age (54%) and 818,845 (25%) happened within the first 3 mo of age. The on-farm mortality rate was 3.87% by 3 mo of age, remained relatively stable over time, and was higher for male calves (4.32%) than female calves (3.45%). Dairy calves experience higher on farm mortality rates than nondairy (beef) calves in the first 3 mo of life, with 6.00 and 2.86% mortality rates, respectively. The 0- to 3-mo death rate at slaughterhouse for male dairy calves has increased from 17.40% in 2011 to 26.16% in 2018, and has remained low ( [less than] 0.5%) for female dairy calves and beef calves of both sexes. Multivariate adaptive regression spline models were able to explain a large degree of the variation in mortality rates (coefficient of determination = 96%). Mean monthly environmental temperature and month of birth appeared to play an important role in neonatal on-farm mortality rates, with increased temperatures significantly reducing mortality rates. Taking the optimal month of birth and environmental temperature as indicators of the best possible environmental conditions, maintaining these conditions throughout the year would be expected to result in a reduction in annual 0- to 3-mo mortality of 37,571 deaths per year, with an estimated economic saving of around £11.6 million (USD $15.3 million) per annum. National cattle registers have great potential for monitoring trends in calf mortality and can provide valuable insights to the cattle industry. Environmental conditions play a significant role in calf mortality rates and further research is needed to explore how to optimize conditions to reduce calf mortality rates in GB

Contemporary accuracy of death certificates for coding prostate cancer as a cause of death : Is reliance on death certification good enough? A comparison with blinded review by an independent cause of death evaluation committee

BACKGROUND: Accurate cause of death assignment is crucial for prostate cancer epidemiology and trials reporting prostate cancer-specific mortality outcomes. METHODS: We compared death certificate information with independent cause of death evaluation by an expert committee within a prostate cancer trial (2002-2015). RESULTS: Of 1236 deaths assessed, expert committee evaluation attributed 523 (42%) to prostate cancer, agreeing with death certificate cause of death in 1134 cases (92%, 95% CI: 90%, 93%). The sensitivity of death certificates in identifying prostate cancer deaths as classified by the committee was 91% (95% CI: 89%, 94%); specificity was 92% (95% CI: 90%, 94%). Sensitivity and specificity were lower where death occurred within 1 year of diagnosis, and where there was another primary cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: UK death certificates accurately identify cause of death in men with prostate cancer, supporting their use in routine statistics. Possible differential misattribution by trial arm supports independent evaluation in randomised trials

ProDiet: A Phase II Randomized Placebo-controlled Trial of Green Tea Catechins and Lycopene in Men at Increased Risk of Prostate Cancer.

Epidemiologic studies suggest that diet can alter prostate cancer risk. This study aimed to establish the feasibility and acceptability of dietary modification in men at increased risk of prostate cancer. Men were invited with a PSA level of 2.0-2.95 ng/mL or 3.0-19.95 ng/mL with negative prostate biopsies. Randomization (3 × 3 factorial design) to daily green tea and lycopene: green tea drink (3 cups, unblinded) or capsules [blinded, 600 mg flavan-3-ol ()-epigallocatechin-3-gallate (EGCG) or placebo] and lycopene-rich foods (unblinded) or capsules (blinded, 15 mg lycopene or placebo) for 6 months. Primary endpoints were randomization rates and intervention adherence (blinded assessment of metabolites) at 6 months with secondary endpoints of acceptability (from interviews), safety, weight, blood pressure, and PSA. A total of 133 of 469 (28.4%) men approached agreed to be randomized and 132 were followed-up (99.2%). Mean lycopene was 1.28 [95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.09-1.50, P = 0.003] times higher in the lycopene capsule group and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.21-1.66; P < 0.001) times higher in the lycopene-enriched diet group compared with placebo capsules. Median EGCG was 10.7 nmol/L (95% CI, 7.0-32.0) higher in in the active capsule group and 20.0 nmol/L (95% CI, 0.0-19.0) higher in the green tea drink group compared with placebo capsules (both P < 0.001). All interventions were acceptable and well tolerated although men preferred the capsules. Dietary prevention is acceptable to men at risk of prostate cancer. This intervention trial demonstrates that a chemoprevention clinical trial is feasible. Cancer Prev Res; 11(11); 687-96. ©2018 AACR

iTRAQ Identification of Candidate Serum Biomarkers Associated with Metastatic Progression of Human Prostate Cancer

A major challenge in the management of patients with prostate cancer is identifying those individuals at risk of developing metastatic disease, as in most cases the disease will remain indolent. We analyzed pooled serum samples from 4 groups of patients (n = 5 samples/group), collected prospectively and actively monitored for a minimum of 5 yrs. Patients groups were (i) histological diagnosis of benign prostatic hyperplasia with no evidence of cancer ‘BPH’, (ii) localised cancer with no evidence of progression, ‘non-progressing’ (iii) localised cancer with evidence of biochemical progression, ‘progressing’, and (iv) bone metastasis at presentation ‘metastatic’. Pooled samples were immuno-depleted of the 14 most highly abundant proteins and analysed using a 4-plex iTRAQ approach. Overall 122 proteins were identified and relatively quantified. Comparisons of progressing versus non-progressing groups identified the significant differential expression of 25 proteins (p<0.001). Comparisons of metastatic versus progressing groups identified the significant differential expression of 23 proteins. Mapping the differentially expressed proteins onto the prostate cancer progression pathway revealed the dysregulated expression of individual proteins, pairs of proteins and ‘panels’ of proteins to be associated with particular stages of disease development and progression. The median immunostaining intensity of eukaryotic translation elongation factor 1 alpha 1 (eEF1A1), one of the candidates identified, was significantly higher in osteoblasts in close proximity to metastatic tumour cells compared with osteoblasts in control bone (p = 0.0353, Mann Whitney U). Our proteomic approach has identified leads for potentially useful serum biomarkers associated with the metastatic progression of prostate cancer. The panels identified, including eEF1A1 warrant further investigation and validation

Effect of a Low-Intensity PSA-Based Screening Intervention on Prostate Cancer Mortality:The CAP Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance Prostate cancer screening remains controversial because potential mortality or quality-of-life benefits may be outweighed by harms from overdetection and overtreatment. Objective To evaluate the effect of a single prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening intervention and standardized diagnostic pathway on prostate cancer–specific mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants The Cluster Randomized Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer (CAP) included 419 582 men aged 50 to 69 years and was conducted at 573 primary care practices across the United Kingdom. Randomization and recruitment of the practices occurred between 2001 and 2009; patient follow-up ended on March 31, 2016. Intervention An invitation to attend a PSA testing clinic and receive a single PSA test vs standard (unscreened) practice. Main Outcomes and Measures Primary outcome: prostate cancer–specific mortality at a median follow-up of 10 years. Prespecified secondary outcomes: diagnostic cancer stage and Gleason grade (range, 2-10; higher scores indicate a poorer prognosis) of prostate cancers identified, all-cause mortality, and an instrumental variable analysis estimating the causal effect of attending the PSA screening clinic. Results Among 415 357 randomized men (mean [SD] age, 59.0 [5.6] years), 189 386 in the intervention group and 219 439 in the control group were included in the analysis (n = 408 825; 98%). In the intervention group, 75 707 (40%) attended the PSA testing clinic and 67 313 (36%) underwent PSA testing. Of 64 436 with a valid PSA test result, 6857 (11%) had a PSA level between 3 ng/mL and 19.9 ng/mL, of whom 5850 (85%) had a prostate biopsy. After a median follow-up of 10 years, 549 (0.30 per 1000 person-years) died of prostate cancer in the intervention group vs 647 (0.31 per 1000 person-years) in the control group (rate difference, −0.013 per 1000 person-years [95% CI, −0.047 to 0.022]; rate ratio [RR], 0.96 [95% CI, 0.85 to 1.08]; P = .50). The number diagnosed with prostate cancer was higher in the intervention group (n = 8054; 4.3%) than in the control group (n = 7853; 3.6%) (RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.14 to 1.25]; P

Ten-year mortality, disease progression, and treatment-related side effects in men with localised prostate cancer from the ProtecT randomised controlled trial according to treatment received

Background The ProtecT trial reported intention-to-treat analysis of men with localised prostate cancer randomly allocated to active monitoring (AM), radical prostatectomy, and external beam radiotherapy. Objective To report outcomes according to treatment received in men in randomised and treatment choice cohorts. Design, setting, and participants This study focuses on secondary care. Men with clinically localised prostate cancer at one of nine UK centres were invited to participate in the treatment trial comparing AM, radical prostatectomy, and radiotherapy. Intervention Two cohorts included 1643 men who agreed to be randomised and 997 who declined randomisation and chose treatment. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis Analysis was carried out to assess mortality, metastasis and progression and health-related quality of life impacts on urinary, bowel, and sexual function using patient-reported outcome measures. Analysis was based on comparisons between groups defined by treatment received for both randomised and treatment choice cohorts in turn, with pooled estimates of intervention effect obtained using meta-analysis. Differences were estimated with adjustment for known prognostic factors using propensity scores. Results and limitations According to treatment received, more men receiving AM died of PCa (AM 1.85%, surgery 0.67%, radiotherapy 0.73%), whilst this difference remained consistent with chance in the randomised cohort (p = 0.08); stronger evidence was found in the exploratory analyses (randomised plus choice cohort) when AM was compared with the combined radical treatment group (p = 0.003). There was also strong evidence that metastasis (AM 5.6%, surgery 2.4%, radiotherapy 2.7%) and disease progression (AM 20.35%, surgery 5.87%, radiotherapy 6.62%) were more common in the AM group. Compared with AM, there were higher risks of sexual dysfunction (95% at 6 mo) and urinary incontinence (55% at 6 mo) after surgery, and of sexual dysfunction (88% at 6 mo) and bowel dysfunction (5% at 6 mo) after radiotherapy. The key limitations are the potential for bias when comparing groups defined by treatment received and changes in the protocol for AM during the lengthy follow-up required in trials of screen-detected PCa. Conclusions Analyses according to treatment received showed increased rates of disease-related events and lower rates of patient-reported harms in men managed by AM compared with men managed by radical treatment, and stronger evidence of greater PCa mortality in the AM group. Patient summary More than 95 out of every 100 men with low or intermediate risk localised prostate cancer do not die of prostate cancer within 10 yr, irrespective of whether treatment is by means of monitoring, surgery, or radiotherapy. Side effects on sexual and bladder function are better after active monitoring, but the risks of spreading of prostate cancer are more common

The impact of immediate breast reconstruction on the time to delivery of adjuvant therapy: the iBRA-2 study

Background: Immediate breast reconstruction (IBR) is routinely offered to improve quality-of-life for women requiring mastectomy, but there are concerns that more complex surgery may delay adjuvant oncological treatments and compromise long-term outcomes. High-quality evidence is lacking. The iBRA-2 study aimed to investigate the impact of IBR on time to adjuvant therapy. Methods: Consecutive women undergoing mastectomy ± IBR for breast cancer July–December, 2016 were included. Patient demographics, operative, oncological and complication data were collected. Time from last definitive cancer surgery to first adjuvant treatment for patients undergoing mastectomy ± IBR were compared and risk factors associated with delays explored. Results: A total of 2540 patients were recruited from 76 centres; 1008 (39.7%) underwent IBR (implant-only [n = 675, 26.6%]; pedicled flaps [n = 105,4.1%] and free-flaps [n = 228, 8.9%]). Complications requiring re-admission or re-operation were significantly more common in patients undergoing IBR than those receiving mastectomy. Adjuvant chemotherapy or radiotherapy was required by 1235 (48.6%) patients. No clinically significant differences were seen in time to adjuvant therapy between patient groups but major complications irrespective of surgery received were significantly associated with treatment delays. Conclusions: IBR does not result in clinically significant delays to adjuvant therapy, but post-operative complications are associated with treatment delays. Strategies to minimise complications, including careful patient selection, are required to improve outcomes for patients

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio