Electricity Investments under Technology Cost Uncertainty and Stochastic Technological Learning

Given that electricity generation investments are expected to operate for 40 or more years, the decisions we make today can have long-term impacts on the electricity system and the ability and cost of meeting long-term environmental goals. This research investigates socially optimal near-term electricity investment decisions under uncertainty in future technology costs and policy by formulating a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. as a two-stage stochastic dynamic program. The unique feature of the study is a stochastic formulation of technological learning. Most studies that include technological learning utilize deterministic learning curves in which a given amount of investment, production or capacity leads to a given cost reduction. In a stochastic framework, investment in a technology in the current period depends on uncertain learning that will result and lower future costs of the technology. Results under stochastic technological learning suggest that additional near-term investment relative to what is optimal under no learning can be justified at technological learning rates as low as 10–15%, and at the 20–25% rates commonly found in literature for advanced non-carbon technologies, significant additional near-term investment can be justified. We also find it can be socially optimal to invest more in non-carbon technology when the rate of learning is uncertain compared to the case where the learning rate is certain. Increasing marginal costs produce an asymmetric loss function that under uncertainty leads to more near-term non-carbon investment in attempt to avoid the situation of high non-carbon costs and an external economic environment that creates high demand for non-carbon technology.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support for this work provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science under grants DE-SC0003906 and DE-FG02-94ER61937; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under grant XA-83600001-1; and other government, industry, and foundation sponsors of the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

NITROGEN CYCLING IN A FOREST STREAM DETERMINED BY A 15N TRACER ADDITION

Nitrogen uptake and cycling was examined using a six‐week tracer addition of 15N‐labeled ammonium in early spring in Walker Branch, a first‐order deciduous forest stream in eastern Tennessee. Prior to the 15N addition, standing stocks of N were determined for the major biomass compartments. During and after the addition, 15N was measured in water and in dominant biomass compartments upstream and at several locations downstream. Residence time of ammonium in stream water (5–6 min) and ammonium uptake lengths (23–27 m) were short and relatively constant during the addition. Uptake rates of NH4 were more variable, ranging from 22 to 37 μg N·m−2·min−1 and varying directly with changes in streamwater ammonium concentration (2.7–6.7 μg/L). The highest rates of ammonium uptake per unit area were by the liverwort Porella pinnata, decomposing leaves, and fine benthic organic matter (FBOM), although epilithon had the highest N uptake per unit biomass N. Nitrification rates and nitrate uptake lengths and rates were determined by fitting a nitrification/nitrate uptake model to the longitudinal profiles of 15N‐NO3 flux. Nitrification was an important sink for ammonium in stream water, accounting for 19% of the total ammonium uptake rate. Nitrate production via coupled regeneration/nitrification of organic N was about one‐half as large as nitrification of streamwater ammonium. Nitrate uptake lengths were longer and more variable than those for ammonium, ranging from 101 m to infinity. Nitrate uptake rate varied from 0 to 29 μg·m−2·min−1 and was ∼1.6 times greater than assimilatory ammonium uptake rate early in the tracer addition. A sixfold decline in instream gross primary production rate resulting from a sharp decline in light level with leaf emergence had little effect on ammonium uptake rate but reduced nitrate uptake rate by nearly 70%. At the end of the addition, 64–79% of added 15N was accounted for, either in biomass within the 125‐m stream reach (33–48%) or as export of 15N‐NH4 (4%), 15N‐NO3 (23%), and fine particulate organic matter (4%) from the reach. Much of the 15N not accounted for was probably lost downstream as transport of particulate organic N during a storm midway through the experiment or as dissolved organic N produced within the reach. Turnover rates of a large portion of the 15N taken up by biomass compartments were high (0.04–0.08 per day), although a substantial portion of the 15N in Porella (34%), FBOM (21%), and decomposing wood (17%) at the end of the addition was retained 75 d later, indicating relatively long‐term retention of some N taken up from water. In total, our results showed that ammonium retention and nitrification rates were high in Walker Branch, and that the downstream loss of N was primarily as nitrate and was controlled largely by nitrification, assimilatory demand for N, and availability of ammonium to meet that demand. Our results are consistent with recent 15N tracer experiments in N‐deficient forest soils that showed high rates of nitrification and the importance of nitrate uptake in regulating losses of N. Together these studies demonstrate the importance of 15N tracer experiments for improving our understanding of the complex processes controlling N cycling and loss in ecosystems

Orbital Maintenance for the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope: The Effects of Solar Radiation Pressure and Navigation Accuracies on Station Keeping

The Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST), a NASA observatory designed to investigate dark energy and astrophysics, is planned for a launch in 2025 to orbit the Sun-Earth L2 (SEL2) Libration Point. Due to the instability of the SEL2 environment, WFIRST must perform maneuvers to remain in its mission orbit. This paper investigates how different error sources affect the resulting stationkeeping delta v for WFIRST. We study how Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP) modeling affects WFIRST's orbital motion and stability, and how SRP combined with Orbit Determination (OD) errors drive the stationkeeping maneuver magnitudes. Our goal is to determine the best way to model WFIRST's SRP so that we minimize its impact on total stationkeeping delta v required over the mission lifetime

Spectrally Resolved Synthetic Aperture Imaging Interferometer

The Spectrally Resolved Synthetic-Aperture Imaging Interferometer (SRSAII) is a system proposed to provide high-resolution and high-sensitivity measurements of astronomical objects. SRSAII uses long baseline interferometric methods to achieve the resolution and low-noise, high time-precision detection to achieve the sensitivity. The primary goal of the SRSAII study was to lay out a framework for using new optical physics technologies to directly resolve, both spatially and spectrally, the disk of an exoplanet. In addition to the ambitious goal of directly resolving an exoplanet, the SRSAII team also sought to identify science opportunities achievable with intermediate system configurations which may offer resolution significantly higher than the current state of the art, but insufficient for direct resolution of an exoplanetary disk. An operational SRSAII system can function with essentially arbitrarily large baselines, achieving correspondingly high angular resolution. The primary limitation occurs in the system sensitivity, which became the major technical focus for study. In this report, we compare the predicted performance (sensitivity in SNR (Signal-to-Noise Ratio) along with angular resolution) of three interferometric techniques: direct detection (also known as homodyne interferometry), multi-channel intensity interferometry (using the Hanbury Brown and Twiss effect), and multi-channel heterodyne interferometry (using an optical frequency comb as a local oscillator). Additionally, quantum-assisted interferometry is also explored as a prospective enhancement of established methods. This report presents a survey of the technologies that enable the SRSAII techniques - optical frequency combs, single photon detectors, and photonic integrated circuits. These technologies are the basis of methods critical to SRSAII's success: precision timing, length and frequency metrology, sensitive photodetection, fine-scale wavelength filtering, and dense multi-channel operation. Lastly, we give some notional performance metrics and propose some possible experimental observations

Food resources of stream macroinvertebrates determined by natural-abundance stable C and N isotopes and a 15N tracer addition

Trophic relationships were examined using natural-abundance 13C and 15N analyses and a 15N-tracer addition experiment in Walker Branch, a 1st-order forested stream in eastern Tennessee. In the 15N-tracer addition experiment, we added 15NH4, to stream water over a 6-wk period In early spring, and measured 15N:14N ratios in different taxa and biomass compartments over distance and time. Samples collected from a station upstream from the 15N addition provided data on natural-abundance 13C:12C and 15N:14N ratios. The natural-abundance 15N analysis proved to be of limited value in identifying food resources of macroinvertebrates because 15N values were not greatly different among food resources. In general, the natural-abundance stable isotope approach was most useful for determining whether epilithon or detritus were important food resources for organisms that may use both (e.g., the snail Elimia clavaeformis), and to provide corroborative evidence of food resources of taxa for which the 15N tracer results were not definitive. The 15N tracer results showed that the mayflies Stenonema spp. and Baetis spp. assimilated primarily epilithon, although Baetis appeared to assimilate a portion of the epilithon (e.g., algal cells) with more rapid N turnover than the bulk pool sampled. Although Elimia did not reach isotopic equilibrium during the tracer experiment, application of a N-turnover model to the field data suggested that it assimilated a combination of epilithon and detritus. The amphipod Gammarus minus appeared to depend mostly on fine benthic organic matter (FBOM), and the coleopteran Anchytarsus bicolor on epixylon. The caddisfly Diplectrona modesta appeared to assimilate primarily a fast N-turnover portion of the FBOM pool, and Simuliidae a fast N- turnover component of the suspended particulate organic matter pool rather than the bulk pool sampled. Together, the natural-abundance stable C and N isotope analyses and the experimental 15N tracer approach proved to be very useful tools for identifying food resources in this stream ecosystem

Factors affecting ammonium uptake in streams - an inter-biome perspective

The Lotic Intersite Nitrogen experiment (LINX) was a coordinated study of the relationships between North American biomes and factors governing ammonium uptake in streams. Our objective was to relate inter-biome variability of ammonium uptake to physical, chemical and biological processes. 2. Data were collected from 11 streams ranging from arctic to tropical and from desert to rainforest. Measurements at each site included physical, hydraulic and chemical characteristics, biological parameters, whole-stream metabolism and ammonium uptake. Ammonium uptake was measured by injection of \u275~-ammonium and downstream measurements of 15N-ammonium concentration. 3. We found no general, statistically significant relationships that explained the variability in ammonium uptake among sites. However, this approach does not account for the multiple mechanisms of ammonium uptake in streams. When we estimated biological demand for inorganic nitrogen based on our measurements of in-stream metabolism, we found good correspondence between calculated nitrogen demand and measured assimilative nitrogen uptake. 4. Nitrogen uptake varied little among sites, reflecting metabolic compensation in streams in a variety of distinctly different biomes (autotrophic production is high where allochthonous inputs are relatively low and vice versa). 5. Both autotrophic and heterotrophic metabolism require nitrogen and these biotic processes dominate inorganic nitrogen retention in streams. Factors that affect the relative balance of autotrophic and heterotrophic metabolism indirectly control inorganic nitrogen uptake

An evaluation of the Cygnet parenting support programme for parents of children with autism spectrum conditions

Parents of children on the autistic spectrum often struggle to understand the condition and, related to this, manage their child’s behaviour. Cygnet is a parenting intervention which aims to help parents address these difficulties, consequently improving parenting confidence. It is widely used in the United Kingdom (UK). Despite this, there have been few evaluations. This paper reports a small-scale pragmatic evaluation of Cygnet as it was routinely delivered in two English cities. A non-randomised controlled study of outcomes for parents (and their children) was conducted. Data regarding intervention fidelity and delivery costs were also collected. Parents either attending, or waiting to attend, Cygnet were recruited (intervention group: IG, n=35; comparator group: CG, n=32). Parents completed standardised measures of child behaviour and parenting sense of competence pre- and post-intervention, and at three-month follow-up (matched time points for CG). Longer-term outcomes were measured for the IG. IG parents also set specific child behaviour goals. Typically, the programme was delivered as specified by the manual. Attending Cygnet was associated with significant improvements in parenting satisfaction and the specific child behaviour goals. Findings regarding other outcomes were equivocal and further evaluation is required. We conclude that Cygnet is a promising intervention for parents of children with autism in terms of, at least, some outcomes

Can uptake length in strams be determined by nutrient addition experiments? Results from an interbiome comparison study

Nutrient uptake length is an important parnmeter tor quantifying nutrient cycling in streams. Although nutrient tracer additions are the preierred method for measuring uptake length under ambient nutrient concentrations, short-term nutrient addition experiments have more irequently been used to estimate uptake length in streams. Theoretical analysis of the relationship between uptake length determined by nutrient addition experiments (Sw\u27) and uptake length determined by tracer additions (Sw)predicted that Sw\u27 should be consistently longer than 5, , and that the overestimate of uptake length by Sw( should be related to the level of nutrient addition above ambient concentrations and the degree of nutrient limitation. To test these predictions, we used data irom an interbiorne study of NH,- uptake length in which 15NH,- tracer and short-term NH,-a ddition experiments were performed in 10 streams using a uniform experimental approach. The experimental results largely contirmed the theoretical predictions: sw\u27 was consistently longer than Sw and Sw\u27:Sw ratios were directly related to the level of NH,- addition and to indicatvrs of N limitation. The experimentally derived Sw\u27:Sw, ratios were used with the theoretical results to infer the N limitation status of each stream. Together, the theoretical and experimental results showed the tracer experiments should be used whenever possible to determine nutrient uptake length in streams. Nutrient addition experiments may be useful for comparing uptake lengths between different streams or cliiferent times in the same stream. however, provided that nutrient additions are kept as low as possible and of similar miagnitude

Literacy development with deaf communities using sign language, peer tuition, and learner-generated online content: sustainable educational innovation

In much of the world, English instruction is delivered to deaf signers by teachers who cannot sign themselves. This makes deaf people's English acquisition, which is very difficult (Kempt & Maxwell 1989; Schmitz & Keenan 2005), virtually impossible in many locations. This pilot project aims to provide English-language teaching for members of the deaf community in India including deaf young people in high poverty contexts, and draft a model of effective language-teaching interventions for them, to guide policy and further innovation. The focus is improving the quality of educational outcomes for a specific community which may not derive adequate benefit from traditional interventions. Peer education can lead to improved academic and cognitive abilities for both learners and tutors, and decreased absenteeism and isolation (Bruffee 1978; Falchikov 2001). The project proposes a model which departs from existing traditional language teaching practices in India, and takes an ethnographic approach which will see the development of materials and teaching led by local deaf tutors supported by trainers both in-country and from the UK, to ensure responsiveness to learner needs. It is an interdisciplinary collaboration between specialists in (applied) sign linguistics/Deaf Studies, TESOL, cross-cultural research on literacies, and learning technologists. The development of a virtual/mobile learning platform (Sign Language to English by the Deaf - SLEND) combined with the use of sign language and support from deaf peer tutors constitute a learner-driven, innovative methodology based on a functional approach to learning that will emphasise using language to do things (rather than grammar-driven). Adaptation of the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages (CEFR) for the expression of learning outcomes will allow achievements to be expressed in terms of an internationally understood tool. To examine transferability across cultures, small-scale investigative fieldwork will take place in Uganda and Ghana to reveal literacy needs there and pave the way for future South-South collaboration. Using mixed methods from action research and ethnographic research, the project addresses the following research questions: 1. How can we develop and implement a deaf-led, community based, learner-focussed teaching programme that meets local community needs in a sustainable way? 2. How can we capture and measure, in a standardised way, the effectiveness of the combination of peer tuition, a dedicated virtual learning environment, and a staged training programme on teaching English literacy in this particular socio-cultural context? 3. How can we best understand and conceptualise the interrelated elements that characterise this approach and how they interact to facilitate effective teaching in this context? Qualitative data including classroom observations, analysis of interactions on the SLEND, and interviews inform the answers to this question. Community teachers/peer tutors will be trained in data collection and analysis, enhancing the research capacity of the deaf community. In India, the study has four overlapping phases: (1) Ethnographic study into existing literacy practices to identify the types of communication which are valued by deaf sign language users proceeds alongside (2) content development based on this needs assessment. Course delivery (3) is then carried out by local tutors with pre- and post- assessment to measure learner attainment. Compiling the interim and final quantitative-qualitative evidence for dissemination (4) informs national policy and ensures the project's on-going influence. In Uganda and Ghana, smaller case studies into literacy needs and practices will be carried out using the same ethnographic research tools. Focus groups in these countries alongside dissemination workshops will review the SLEND and discuss possible adaptation/scalability to teaching situations in deaf communities in sub-Saharan Africa