Concept of dealing with uncertainty in radar-based data for hydrological purpose

International audiencePrecipitation radar-based data constitute essential input to Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and rainfall-runoff models, however the data introduce a number of errors. Thus their uncertainty should be determined to provide end-users with more reliable information about forecasts. The common idea is to use Quality Index (QI) scheme for some number of quality parameters on the assumption that: (1) relationship between the parameters and relevant quality indexes is linear; (2) averaged QI is a weighted average of all particular indexes. The uncertainty parameters can be topography-dependent, resulting from spatial and temporal distribution of data, etc. Uncertainty in radar-based data is described by gamma PDF of precipitation, and it is proposed to determine the probability density function (PDF) parameters basing on QI values. Practically, precipitation is presented as ensemble of quantiles of the PDF and such an ensemble can constitute input to rainfall-runoff modelling. Since the ensemble is a precipitation input, the hydrological model needs to be activated according to a number of input members

Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on factors extracted from large monthly datasets. The forecasting exercise is performed in a simulated real-time context, which takes account of publication lags in the individual series. In general, we find that models that exploit monthly information outperform models that use purely quarterly data and, amongst the former, factor models perform best.Bridge models, Dynamic factor models, real-time data flow model

Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise.

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on factors extracted from large monthly datasets. The forecasting exercise is performed in a simulated real-time context, which takes account of publication lags in the individual series. In general, we find that models that exploit monthly information outperform models that use purely quarterly data and, amongst the former, factor models perform best.Bridge models ; Dynamic factor models ; real-time data flow.

Plant Transglutaminases: New Insights in Biochemistry, Genetics, and Physiology

Transglutaminases (TGases) are calcium-dependent enzymes that catalyse an acyl-transfer reaction between primary amino groups and protein-bound Gln residues. They are widely distributed in nature, being found in vertebrates, invertebrates, microorganisms, and plants. TGases and their functionality have been less studied in plants than humans and animals. TGases are distributed in all plant organs, such as leaves, tubers, roots, flowers, buds, pollen, and various cell compartments, including chloroplasts, the cytoplasm, and the cell wall. Recent molecular, physiological, and biochemical evidence pointing to the role of TGases in plant biology and the mechanisms in which they are involved allows us to consider their role in processes such as photosynthesis, plant fertilisation, responses to biotic and abiotic stresses, and leaf senescence. In the present paper, an in-depth description of the biochemical characteristics and a bioinformatics comparison of plant TGases is provided. We also present the phylogenetic relationship, gene structure, and sequence alignment of TGase proteins in various plant species, not described elsewhere. Currently, our knowledge of these proteins in plants is still insufficient. Further research with the aim of identifying and describing the regulatory components of these enzymes and the processes regulated by them is needed

Some integrability conditions for almost K\"ahler manifolds

Among other results, a compact almost K\"ahler manifold is proved to be K\"ahler if the Ricci tensor is semi-negative and its length coincides with that of the star Ricci tensor or if the Ricci tensor is semi-positive and its first order covariant derivatives are Hermitian. Moreover, it is shown that there are no compact almost K\"ahler manifolds with harmonic Weyl tensor and non-parallel semi-positive Ricci tensor. Stronger results are obtained in dimension 4.Comment: Latex2e, 13 page

POLISH TOWNS AND THE CHANGES IN THEIR AREAS AND POPULATION DENSITIES

DOI: 10.2478 Available on-line at: http://www.bulletinofgeography.umk.pl http://versita.com/bgssThis article presents the spatial and population density changes in Polish towns in the years 1960–2003. The assumed time frame allowed identifying area changes for a complete set of towns in different socio-economic conditions: the period of intense industrialisation, the economic crisis of the 1980s, the period of economic transition and finally in the years of a market economy. The investigation revealed that the trend shown by changes and the size of a town as measured by the number of its population are distinctly interrelated. It also demonstrated a much stronger dynamics of changes in the first subperiod, i.e. years 1960–1985, followed by a phase of relative stabilization (compared with the previous period) after the year 1980 (mainly of the spatial changes). Moreover, change intensity and change trends observed for the urban areas and population densities vary considerably in terms of space

Associations between XPD Asp312Asn Polymorphism and Risk of Head and Neck Cancer: A Meta-Analysis Based on 7,122 Subjects

Background: To investigate the association between XPD Asp312Asn polymorphism and head and neck cancer risk through this meta-analysis. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of 9 published case-control studies including 2,670 patients with head and neck cancer and 4,452 controls. An odds ratio (OR) with a 95 % confidence interval (CI) was applied to assess the association between XPD Asp312Asn polymorphism and head and neck cancer risk. Results: Overall, no significant association between XPD Asp312Asn polymorphism and head and neck cancer risk was found in this meta-analysis (Asn/Asn vs. Asp/Asp: OR = 0.95, 95%CI = 0.80–1.13, P = 0.550, Pheterogeneity = 0.126; Asp/Asn vs. Asp/Asp: OR = 1.11, 95%CI = 0.99–1.24, P = 0.065, P heterogeneity = 0.663; Asn/Asn+Asp/Asn vs. Asp/Asp: OR = 1.07, 95%CI = 0.97–1.19, P = 0.189, P heterogeneity = 0.627; Asn/Asn vs. Asp/Asp+Asp/Asn: OR = 0.87, 95%CI = 0.68–1.10, P = 0.243, Pheterogeneity = 0.089). In the subgroup analysis by HWE, ethnicity, and study design, there was still no significant association detected in all genetic models. Conclusions: This meta-analysis demonstrates that XPD Asp312Asn polymorphism may not be a risk factor for developing head and neck cancer

The association of APE1 −656T > G and 1349 T > G polymorphisms and cancer risk: a meta-analysis based on 37 case-control studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>APE1 (apurinic/apyrimidinic endonuclease 1) is an important DNA repair protein in the base excision repair pathway. Polymorphisms in <it>APE1 </it>have been implicated in susceptibility to cancer; however, results from the published studies remained inconclusive. The objective of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis investigating the association between polymorphisms in <it>APE1 </it>and the risk for cancer.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The PubMed and Embase databases were searched for case-control studies published up to June, 2011 that investigated <it>APE1 </it>polymorphisms and cancer risk. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess the strength of the associations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two polymorphisms (−656 T > G, rs1760944 and 1349 T > G, rs1130409) in 37 case-control studies including 15, 544 cancer cases and 21, 109 controls were analyzed. Overall, variant genotypes (GG and TG/GG) of −656 T > G polymorphism were associated with significantly decreased cancer risk in homozygote comparison (OR = 0.81, 95%CI: 0.67-0.97), dominant model comparison (OR = 0.89, 95%CI: 0.81-0.97) and recessive model comparison (OR = 0.90, 95%CI: 0.82-0.98), whereas the 1349 T > G polymorphism had no effects on overall cancer risk. In the stratified analyses for −656 T > G polymorphism, there was a significantly decreased risk of lung cancer and among Asian populations.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although some modest bias could not be eliminated, the meta-analysis suggests that <it>APE1 −</it>656 T > G polymorphism has a possible protective effect on cancer risk particularly among Asian populations whereas 1349 T > G polymorphism does not contribute to the development of cancer.</p