Sensibilité d'une analyse coût-bénéfice - Enseignements pour l'évaluation des projets d'atténuation des inondations

National audienceCost-Benefit Analysis based on the damage avoided approach gives rise to several synthetic indicators measuring either the flood exposure of an area (mean annual damage), or the interest to conduct a flood prevention policy (mean annual damage avoided, net present value). Those indicators are the outcome of a combination of hydrological, hydraulic, geographic and economic models. Although it is recommended to study the precision of these indicators, this is rarely done in practice, as the combined models which are needed are relatively complex. In this article, we present an approach which is based on Monte-Carlo analysis, and discuss the insights which can be drawn from it on the validity of the indicators.L'analyse coût-bénéfice basée sur la simulation des dommages évités permet d'obtenir des indicateurs synthétiques sur l'exposition d'un territoire aux inondations (les dommages moyens annualisés), ainsi que l'intérêt ou non de mener une politique de prévention des inondations (les dommages évités moyens annualisés, la valeur actuelle nette). Ces indicateurs sont issus de la combinaison de modélisations hydrologiques, hydrauliques, géographiques et économiques d'un territoire. Bien qu'il soir recommandé d'en étudier la précision et la sensibilité, cette étape n'est que très rarement effectuée en pratique, notamment du fait de la complexité de la combinaison des différents modèles mobilisés. Dans cet article, au travers d'un exemple, nous proposons une approche reposant sur la technique de Monte-Carlo et analysons les enseignements concernant la validité des indicateurs

Hypervascular nodule in a fibrotic liver overloaded with iron: identification of a premalignant area with preserved liver architecture

BACKGROUND: The presence of a hypervascular nodule in a patient with cirrhosis is highly suggestive of a hepatocellular carcinoma. CASE PRESENTATION: A 55 year old man with idiopathic refractory anaemia was addressed for the cure of a recently appeared 3.3 cm hypervascular liver nodule. The nodule was not visible on the resected fresh specimen, but a paler zone was seen after formalin fixation. The surrounding liver was fibrotic (METAVIR score F3) and overloaded with iron. However, the paler zone, thought to be the nodule, had in fact a normal architecture, was less fibrotic, and contained some "portal tract-like structures" (but with arteries only); moreover, this paler area was devoid of iron, contained less glycogen and was characterized by foci of clear hepatocytes. CONCLUSION: In spite of the absence of architectural distortion, and a normal proliferative index, the possibility of premalignancy or malignancy should be considered in this type of hypervascular and hyposiderotic nodule, occurring in the context of an iron overloaded liver

Liposomal irinotecan and 5-fluorouracil/leucovorin in older patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer - A subgroup analysis of the pivotal NAPOLI-1 trial

Irinotecan liposomal; Pacients grans; Càncer de pàncreesIrinotecán liposomal; Pacientes mayores; Cáncer de páncreasLiposomal irinotecan; Older patients; Pancreatic cancerObjectives Pancreatic cancer is a highly lethal disease predominantly affecting older patients. Characterization of outcomes in these patients may help optimise treatment decisions. The global, phase 3 NAPOLI-1 trial ( NCT01494506 ) demonstrated an overall survival (OS) benefit with liposomal irinotecan and 5-flurouracil/leucovorin (nal-IRI + 5-FU/LV) versus 5-FU/LV. This subgroup analysis explored impact of age on outcomes in NAPOLI-1 patients, and nal-IRI + 5-FU/LV efficacy and safety in older patients. Materials and Methods This exploratory, post-hoc analysis of the NAPOLI-1 trial included patients aged ≥eighteen years (no upper limit) with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma that had progressed on gemcitabine-based therapy. Patients were stratified by age (cut-offs at 65, 70, and 75 years); OS and progression-free survival (PFS) were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results Of 417 randomized patients, 192 (46%), 110 (26%) and 43 (10%) were aged ≥65, ≥70 and ≥ 75 years, respectively. Mortality risk and risk of disease progression were similar in older and younger patients independent of treatment (HRs for median [m]OS/mPFS comparisons were 0.88/0.95 [ .25). Reduced mortality/morbidity risk with nal-IRI + 5-FU/LV in older subgroups was in line with the wider population. No additional toxicities with nal-IRI + 5-FU/LV were observed in older patients: 86% of patients ≥75 years versus 69% <75 years required a dose delay or reduction due to toxicities (43% versus 32% dose reductions). Discussion Results suggest that older patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma that progressed on prior gemcitabine-based treatment can benefit from second-line therapy, supporting nal-IRI + 5-FU/LV treatment in older patients.The NAPOLI-1 trial (ClinicalTrials.govidentifier: NCT01494506) was sponsored by Merrimack Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA; Medical writing support was provided by Laura McMahon of Physicians World Europe GmbH, Mannheim, Germany, and funded by Shire International, Zug, Switzerland. Correction and publication costs were funded by Global Medical Affairs, Servier, Suresnes, France

A multicenter comparison between Child Pugh and ALBI scores in patients treated with sorafenib for hepatocellular carcinoma

Background &amp; aims: The ALBI grade was proposed as an objective means to evaluate liver function in patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). ALBI grade 1 vs 2 were proposed as stratification factors within the Child Pugh (CP) A class. However, the original publication did not provide comparison with the sub-classification by points (5 to 15) within the CP classification. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from patients treated with sorafenib for HCC from 17 centers in United Kingdom and France. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method and a Cox regression model. Discriminatory abilities of the classifications were assessed with the log likelihood ratio, Harrell’s C statistics and Akaike information criterion. Results: Data from 1,019 patients were collected, of which 905 could be assessed for both scores. 92% of ALBI grade 1 were CP A5 while ALBI 2 included a broad range of CP scores of which 44% were CP A6. Median OS was 10.2, 7.0 and 3.6 months for CP scores A5, A6 and &gt;A6, respectively (P&lt;0.001), Hazard Ratio (HR)=1.60 (95%CI: 1.35-1.89, P&lt;0.001) for A6 vs A5. Median OS was 10.9, 6.6 and 3.0 months for ALBI grade 1, 2 and 3, respectively (P&lt;0.001), HR=1.68 (1.43-1.97, P&lt;0.001) for grade 2 vs 1. Discriminatory abilities of CP and ALBI were similar in the CP A population, but better for CP in the overall population. Conclusions: Our findings support the use CP class A as an inclusion criterion, and ALBI as a stratification factor in trials of systemic therapy

Quality of life in metastatic pancreatic cancer patients receiving liposomal irinotecan plus 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin

Abstract Background The NAPOLI-1 study (NCT01494506) reported that liposomal irinotecan plus 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin (nal-IRI+5-FU/LV) improved overall survival vs 5-FU/LV with manageable toxicity in patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma previously treated with gemcitabine-based therapy. Yet, clinicians need treatment strategies that also maintain the patient's health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Here, we report the HRQOL data. Methods Patients completed the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer QOL core questionnaire C30 (EORTC QLQ-C30) at baseline, every 6 weeks, and at 30 days after discontinuation of study treatment. Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) were scored according to EORTC guidelines. nal-IRI+5-FU/LV HRQOL was compared with 5-FU/LV. The PRO population comprised intent-to-treat patients who completed baseline and at least one subsequent assessment on the EORTC QLQ-C30. Data were also analysed for missingness. Results Of 236 patients in the intent-to-treat population, 128 (54.2%) comprised the PRO population (71 in the nal-IRI+5-FU/LV arm; 57 the in 5-FU/LV arm). Of the remaining 108 patients (45.8%) not included in the PRO population, most progressed rapidly, making participation difficult. Median change from baseline was ≤10 points at weeks 6 and 12 in global health status or functional and symptom scale scores, except for fatigue, which deteriorated by 11.1 points with nal-IRI+5-FU/LV but did not change vs 5-FU/LV. The proportion of patients whose HRQOL improved or deteriorated was not significantly different between the arms. Conclusion In the NAPOLI-1 study, HRQOL was maintained with nal-IRI+5-FU/LV in patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma previously treated with a gemcitabine-based regimen, while survival was significantly extended

Alzheimers Dement

This study aims to examine whether physical activity moderates the association between biomarkers of brain pathologies and dementia risk. From the Memento cohort, we analyzed 1044 patients with mild cognitive impairment, aged 60 and older. Self-reported physical activity was assessed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Biomarkers of brain pathologies comprised medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA), white matter lesions, and plasma amyloid beta (Aβ)42/40 and phosphorylated tau181. Association between physical activity and risk of developing dementia over 5 years of follow-up, and interactions with biomarkers of brain pathologies were tested. Physical activity moderated the association between MTA and plasma Aβ42/40 level and increased dementia risk. Compared to participants with low physical activity, associations of both MTA and plasma Aβ42/40 on dementia risk were attenuated in participants with high physical activity. Although reverse causality cannot be excluded, this work suggests that physical activity may contribute to cognitive reserve. Physical activity is an interesting modifiable target for dementia prevention. Physical activity may moderate the impact of brain pathology on dementia risk. Medial temporal lobe atrophy and plasma amyloid beta 42/40 ratio were associated with increased dementia risk especially in those with low level of physical activity

Neural correlates of visual hallucinations in dementia with Lewy bodies.

NTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between visual hallucinations in dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) and brain perfusion using single-photon emission computed tomography. METHODS: We retrospectively included 66 patients with DLB, 36 of whom were having visual hallucinations (DLB-hallu) and 30 of whom were not (DLB-c). We assessed visual hallucination severity on a 3-point scale of increasing severity: illusions, simple visual hallucinations and complex visual hallucinations. We performed voxel-level comparisons between the two groups and assessed correlations between perfusion and visual hallucinations severity. RESULTS: We found a significant decrease in perfusion in the left anterior cingulate cortex, the left orbitofrontal cortex and the left cuneus in the DLB-hallu group compared with the DLB-c group. We also found a significant correlation between decreased bilateral anterior cingulate cortex, left orbitofrontal cortex, right parahippocampal gyrus, right inferior temporal cortex and left cuneus perfusion with the severity of hallucinations. CONCLUSIONS: Visual hallucinations seem to be associated with the impairment of anterior and posterior regions (secondary visual areas, orbitofrontal cortex and anterior cingulate cortex) involved in a top-down and bottom-up mechanism, respectively. Furthermore, involvement of the bilateral anterior cingulate cortex and right parahippocampal gyrus seems to lead to more complex hallucinations.journal article20152015 02 17importe

Inventaire et évaluation des vieilles forêts des Pyrénées de Midi-Pyrénées

Les 11, 12 et 13 février 2016, ce sont déroulées les 5e Rencontres Naturalistes de Midi-Pyrénées dans le Gers, à Auch. Tous les 3 ans, ce rendez-vous incontournable des amateurs et professionnels de la biodiversité de Midi-Pyrénées et d’ailleurs, a rassemblé plus de 600 participants sur les 3 jours. Le succès de cet événement n’aurait pas été aussi complet sans l’aide des bénévoles et des associations partenaires. Les 5e Rencontres Naturalistes se sont ouvertes sur les discours de Nadia Baïtiche-Moine, Adjointe au Maire d’Auch, de Jérôme Calas, Président de Nature Midi-Pyrénées et de Ronny Guardia-Mazzoleni, Conseiller régional Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées. Au cours de ces 3 jours, ce sont près de 35 communications sur la faune, la flore et les espaces naturels, agricoles et forestiers qui ont été présentées : une véritable synthèse des différents travaux menés en Midi-Pyrénées depuis 3 ans dans le domaine de la connaissance et de la préservation de notre riche patrimoine naturel régional. Les nombreux participants d’horizons divers (associations, conservatoires, services de l’Etat, laboratoires de recherche, établissements scolaires, PNR ou collectivités) ont eu également l’occasion de profiter des temps de pause pour échanger autour d’une vingtaine de posters scientifiques et de différentes expositions