Clustering of recurrent events data applied to the re-admission of elderly people at hospital

International audienceThe recurrent admissions of elderly people at hospital can be modeled by a censored counting process. The intensity of this processe can be specified as functions of covariates as in the Andersen-Gill model. However, accounting for these covariates is often not sufficient to explain the observed inter-patient heterogeneity. We propose a mixture model (also called a latent class model) which takes into account this heterogenity and allows to perform the patients' clustering. Within each cluster, the recurrent events process intensity is modeled by a parametric baseline intensity (Weibull) adjusted by the effect of the covariates. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood using the EM algorithm, and the BIC criterion is adopted to choose the optimal numbers of clusters. The behaviour of the model is studied on simulated data. The analysis of two real datasets is also performed. The first one (PAERPA cohort) contains administrative data on hospital admission dates, death and basic clinical/demographic variables for over 35000 older persons. The second one (DAMAGE cohort) contains more detailed data on over 3500 older persons: dates of hospital admissions, clinical, biological, socio-demographic variables

Measuring senescence rates of patients with end-stage renal disease while accounting for population heterogeneity : an analysis of data from the ERA-EDTA Registry

Purpose: Although a population's senescence rate is classically measured as the increase in mortality rate with age on a logarithmic scale, it may be more accurately measured as the increase on a linear scale. Patients on dialysis, who suffer from accelerated senescence, exhibit a smaller increase in their mortality rate on a logarithmic scale, but a larger increase on a linear scale than patients with a functioning kidney transplant. However, this comparison may be biased by population heterogeneity. Methods: Follow-up data on 323,308 patients on dialysis and 91,679 patients with a functioning kidney transplant were derived from the ERA-EDTA Registry. We measured the increases in their mortality rates using Gompertz frailty models that allow individual variation in this increase. Results: According to these models, the senescence rate measured as the increase in mortality rate on a logarithmic scale was smaller in patients on dialysis, while the senescence rate measured as the increase on a linear scale was larger in patients on dialysis than patients with a functioning kidney transplant. Conclusions: Also when accounting for population heterogeneity, a population's senescence rate is more accurately measured as the increase in mortality rate on a linear scale than a logarithmic scale. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

STOPP/START criteria for potentially inappropriate prescribing in older people: version 3

PURPOSE: STOPP/START is a physiological systems-based explicit set of criteria that attempts to define the clinically important prescribing problems relating to potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs-STOPP criteria) and potential prescribing omissions (PPOs-START criteria). The previous two versions of STOPP/START criteria were published in 2008 and 2015. The present study describes the revised and updated third version of the criteria. METHODS: A detailed system-by-system review of the published literature from April 2014 to March 2022 was undertaken with the aim of including clinically important new explicit PIM and PPO criteria and removing any criteria considered to be no longer correct or outdated. A panel of 11 academic physicians with recognized expertise in geriatric pharmacotherapy from 8 European countries participated in a Delphi panel with the task of validating the draft criteria. The panel was presented with the draft new criteria using the SurveyMonkey® on-line platform in which panelists were asked to indicate their level of agreement on a five-point Likert scale. RESULTS: Two hundred and four evidence-based draft criteria (one hundred and forty-five STOPP criteria, fifty-nine START criteria) were presented to panelists for assessment using the Delphi validation method. Over the course of four rounds of Delphi validation, the panel achieved consensus on 133 STOPP criteria and 57 START criteria, i.e., 190 STOPP/START criteria in total representing a 66.7% increase in the number of criteria compared to STOPP/START version 2 published in 2015. CONCLUSION: A fully revised and updated version of STOPP/START criteria has been validated by a European expert panel using the Delphi consensus process

Development of a standardized chart review method to identify drug-related hospital admissions in older people

Aim: We aimed to develop a standardized chart review method to identify drug-related hospital admissions (DRA) in older people caused by non-preventable adverse drug reactions and preventable medication errors including overuse, underuse and misuse of medications: the DRA adjudication guide. Methods: The DRA adjudication guide was developed based on design and test iterations with international and multidisciplinary input in 4 subsequent steps: literature review, evaluation of content validity using a Delphi consensus technique, a pilot test and a reliability study. Results: The DRA adjudication guide provides definitions, examples and step-by-step instructions to measure DRA. A 3-step standardized chart review method was elaborated including 1) data abstraction, 2) explicit screening with a newly developed trigger tool for DRA in older people and 3) consensus adjudication for causality by a pharmacist and a physician using the World Health Organization-Uppsala Monitoring Centre and Hallas criteria. A 15-member international Delphi panel reached consensus agreement on 26 triggers for DRA in older people. The DRA adjudication guide showed good feasibility of use and achieved moderate inter-rater reliability for the evaluation of 16 cases by 4 European adjudication pairs (71% agreement, kappa = 0.41). Disagreements arose mainly for cases with potential underuse. Conclusions: The DRA adjudication guide is the first standardized chart review method to identify DRA in older persons. Content validity, feasibility of use and inter-rater reliability were found to be satisfactory. The method can be used as an outcome measure for interventions targeted at improving quality and safety of medication use in older people

Methods for conducting international Delphi surveys to optimise global participation in core outcome set development: a case study in gastric cancer informed by a comprehensive literature review

Copyright © 2021, The Author(s) Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.Background: Core outcome sets (COS) should be relevant to key stakeholders and widely applicable and usable. Ideally, they are developed for international use to allow optimal data synthesis from trials. Electronic Delphi surveys are commonly used to facilitate global participation; however, this has limitations. It is common for these surveys to be conducted in a single language potentially excluding those not fluent in that tongue. The aim of this study is to summarise current approaches for optimising international participation in Delphi studies and make recommendations for future practice. Methods: A comprehensive literature review of current approaches to translating Delphi surveys for COS development was undertaken. A standardised methodology adapted from international guidance derived from 12 major sets of translation guidelines in the field of outcome reporting was developed. As a case study, this was applied to a COS project for surgical trials in gastric cancer to translate a Delphi survey into 7 target languages from regions active in gastric cancer research. Results: Three hundred thirty-two abstracts were screened and four studies addressing COS development in rheumatoid and osteoarthritis, vascular malformations and polypharmacy were eligible for inclusion. There was wide variation in methodological approaches to translation, including the number of forward translations, the inclusion of back translation, the employment of cognitive debriefing and how discrepancies and disagreements were handled. Important considerations were identified during the development of the gastric cancer survey including establishing translation groups, timelines, understanding financial implications, strategies to maximise recruitment and regulatory approvals. The methodological approach to translating the Delphi surveys was easily reproducible by local collaborators and resulted in an additional 637 participants to the 315 recruited to complete the source language survey. Ninety-nine per cent of patients and 97% of healthcare professionals from non-English-speaking regions used translated surveys. Conclusion: Consideration of the issues described will improve planning by other COS developers and can be used to widen international participation from both patients and healthcare professionals.This study is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Doctoral Research Fellowship Grant (DRF-2015-08-023). JMB is partially funded by the NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre and the MRC ConDUCT-II Hub for Trials Methodology Research. PRW was funded by the MRC North West Hub for Trials Methodology Research (Grant ref: MR/K025635/01).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Competing risks ans multi-state models in the survival analysis patients

Contexte : Dans les analyses de survie, un risque concurrent est un événement qui empêche l'observation de l'événement d'intérêt (le décès le plus souvent). Si la probabilité de survenue d'un risque concurrent dépend de la probabilité de l'événement d'intérêt, alors il ne peut pas être traité comme une censure. Les patients ayant une insuffisance rénale chronique terminale peuvent être traités par hémodialyse, dialyse péritonéale et greffe rénale. Ces traitements sont complémentaire et les patients peuvent passer d'une modalité de traitement à une autre au cours de leur prise en charge. La dépendance entre les changements de traitement et la probabilité de décès n'a pas été étudiée et ces changements sont traités comme des censures dans les analyses de survie.Objectifs : Analyser la dépendance entre les probabilités de décès en dialyse et de greffe rénale, et entre les probabilités de décès en dialyse péritonéale et de transfert en hémodialyse. Nous démontrerons les conséquences néfastes de la non-prise en compte de cette dépendance dans les analyses de survie en dialyse. Méthodes : (1) Nous avons comparé les estimations de probabilité d'événement obtenues par la méthode de Kaplan-Meier et la méthode de Kalbfleisch et Prentice sur 383 patient indicent consécutifs traités par dialyse péritonéale à Lille. (2) Nous avons analysé les données de 7318 patients incidents traités par hémodialyse en France grâce au registre national REIN. Nous avons utilisé un modèle multi-états pour analyse l'influence de l'inscription sur liste d'attente de greffe sur la probabilité de décès en dialyse. (3) Sur une cohorte de 2790 patients âgés de plus de 65 ans et traités par dialyse péritonéale issus du Registre de Dialyse Péritonéale de Langue Française (RDPLF), nous avons analysé les facteurs de contre-indication au transfert en HD en prenant en compte le décès comme risque concurrent à l’aide du modèle de Fine et Gray. Cette analyse a été complétée par un questionnaire réalisé auprès 55 des néphrologues pratiquant la dialyse péritonéale en France. Résultats : (1) La méthode de Kaplan Meier surestimait systématiquement la probabilité de décès du fait de la violation de l'hypothèse d'indépendance entre le décès et les risques concurrents. Cette méthode n'apparaît donc pas valide dans les analyses de survie en dialyse. La méthode de Kalbfleisch et Prentice était valide mais l'interprétation des incidences cumulées doit prendre en compte tous les risques concurrents. (2) La greffe rénale est un risque concurrent dépendant de la probabilité de décès des patients. Les patients inscrits sur liste d'attente de greffe avaient un risque de décès significativement plus bas que les autres patients, après ajustement sur l'âge et la présence de comorbidités. (3) Le transfert en hémodialyse est un risque concurrent qui semble dépendre de la probabilité de décès des patients. En effet, l'âge et la présence de comorbidités étaient à la fois des facteurs de risque de décès et des facteurs de contre-indications au transfert en hémodialyse. De plus, la plupart des néphrologues ayant répondu à notre enquête ont déclaré qu'une espérance de vie limitée pouvait constituer une contre-indication au transfert. Conclusion : Dans les études de cohorte de patients en insuffisance rénale chronique terminale, les analyses de survie devraient prendre en compte les changements de traitement car ce sont des risques concurrents dépendants de la probabilité de décès. Notre travail a montré que les modèles multi-états sont des outils statistiques flexibles qui permettent de bien représenter l'inter-dépendance entre les différentes modalités de traitement entre dialyse péritonéale, hémodialyse, greffe rénale et décès.In survival analysis, a competing risk is an event that hinders the observation of the event of interest (usually death). If the probability of a competing risk depends on the probability of the event of interest, then it can not be treated as censoring. Patients with ESRD can be treated with hemodialysis, peritoneal dialysis and renal transplantation. These treatments are complementary and patients can move from one treatment modality to another. The dependence between changes in treatment modality and the probability of death has not been studied and these changes are censored in survival analysis.Objectives: To analyze the dependence between the probability of death in dialysis and kidney transplant, and the probability of death on peritoneal dialysis and transfer to hemodialysis. We demonstrate the negative consequences if this dependence is not taken into account in the survival analysis. Methods: (1) We compared estimates of event probability obtained by the Kaplan-Meier method and Kalbfleisch and Prentice on 383 consecutive indicent patients treated by peritoneal dialysis in Lille. (2) We analyzed data on 7318 incident patients undergoing hemodialysis in France from the national registry REIN. We used a multistate model to analyze the influence of inclusion on the transplant waiting list on the probability of death on dialysis. (3) In a cohort of 2790 patients aged over 65 and treated with peritoneal dialysis from the registry of the French Language Peritoneal Dialysis (RDPLF), we analyzed the factors against transfer-indication in HD taking into account death as competing risk using the Fine and Gray model. This analysis was complemented by a survey conducted among 55 nephrologists practicing Peritoneal dialysis in France.Results: (1) The Kaplan-Meier method systematically overestimated the probability of death due to violation of the assumption of independence between death and competing risks. This method does not appear valid in the analyzes of survival on dialysis. The method of Kalbfleisch and Prentice was valid but the interpretation of cumulative impacts must take into account all the competing risks. (2) Kidney transplantation is a competing risk depending on the probability of dying patients. Patients on the transplant waiting list had a risk of death significantly lower than other patients, after adjustment for age and comorbidity. (3) The transfer is a risk in hemodialysis competitor who seems to depend on the probability of dying patients. Indeed, age and comorbidities were both risk factors and death factors against transfer-indications for hemodialysis. Moreover, most nephrologists who responded to our survey reported that limited life expectancy could be an indication to the transfer-cons.Conclusion: In cohort studies of patients with ESRD, the survival analyzes should take into account changes in treatment because they are competing risks dependent on the probability of death. Our work has shown that multi-state models are statistical tools that enable flexible to adequately represent the interdependence between the different modalities of treatment for peritoneal dialysis, hemodialysis, kidney transplantation and death

Risques concurrents et modèles multi-états dans les analyses de survie en dialyse

In survival analysis, a competing risk is an event that hinders the observation of the event of interest (usually death). If the probability of a competing risk depends on the probability of the event of interest, then it can not be treated as censoring. Patients with ESRD can be treated with hemodialysis, peritoneal dialysis and renal transplantation. These treatments are complementary and patients can move from one treatment modality to another. The dependence between changes in treatment modality and the probability of death has not been studied and these changes are censored in survival analysis.Objectives: To analyze the dependence between the probability of death in dialysis and kidney transplant, and the probability of death on peritoneal dialysis and transfer to hemodialysis. We demonstrate the negative consequences if this dependence is not taken into account in the survival analysis. Methods: (1) We compared estimates of event probability obtained by the Kaplan-Meier method and Kalbfleisch and Prentice on 383 consecutive indicent patients treated by peritoneal dialysis in Lille. (2) We analyzed data on 7318 incident patients undergoing hemodialysis in France from the national registry REIN. We used a multistate model to analyze the influence of inclusion on the transplant waiting list on the probability of death on dialysis. (3) In a cohort of 2790 patients aged over 65 and treated with peritoneal dialysis from the registry of the French Language Peritoneal Dialysis (RDPLF), we analyzed the factors against transfer-indication in HD taking into account death as competing risk using the Fine and Gray model. This analysis was complemented by a survey conducted among 55 nephrologists practicing Peritoneal dialysis in France.Results: (1) The Kaplan-Meier method systematically overestimated the probability of death due to violation of the assumption of independence between death and competing risks. This method does not appear valid in the analyzes of survival on dialysis. The method of Kalbfleisch and Prentice was valid but the interpretation of cumulative impacts must take into account all the competing risks. (2) Kidney transplantation is a competing risk depending on the probability of dying patients. Patients on the transplant waiting list had a risk of death significantly lower than other patients, after adjustment for age and comorbidity. (3) The transfer is a risk in hemodialysis competitor who seems to depend on the probability of dying patients. Indeed, age and comorbidities were both risk factors and death factors against transfer-indications for hemodialysis. Moreover, most nephrologists who responded to our survey reported that limited life expectancy could be an indication to the transfer-cons.Conclusion: In cohort studies of patients with ESRD, the survival analyzes should take into account changes in treatment because they are competing risks dependent on the probability of death. Our work has shown that multi-state models are statistical tools that enable flexible to adequately represent the interdependence between the different modalities of treatment for peritoneal dialysis, hemodialysis, kidney transplantation and death.Contexte : Dans les analyses de survie, un risque concurrent est un événement qui empêche l'observation de l'événement d'intérêt (le décès le plus souvent). Si la probabilité de survenue d'un risque concurrent dépend de la probabilité de l'événement d'intérêt, alors il ne peut pas être traité comme une censure. Les patients ayant une insuffisance rénale chronique terminale peuvent être traités par hémodialyse, dialyse péritonéale et greffe rénale. Ces traitements sont complémentaire et les patients peuvent passer d'une modalité de traitement à une autre au cours de leur prise en charge. La dépendance entre les changements de traitement et la probabilité de décès n'a pas été étudiée et ces changements sont traités comme des censures dans les analyses de survie.Objectifs : Analyser la dépendance entre les probabilités de décès en dialyse et de greffe rénale, et entre les probabilités de décès en dialyse péritonéale et de transfert en hémodialyse. Nous démontrerons les conséquences néfastes de la non-prise en compte de cette dépendance dans les analyses de survie en dialyse. Méthodes : (1) Nous avons comparé les estimations de probabilité d'événement obtenues par la méthode de Kaplan-Meier et la méthode de Kalbfleisch et Prentice sur 383 patient indicent consécutifs traités par dialyse péritonéale à Lille. (2) Nous avons analysé les données de 7318 patients incidents traités par hémodialyse en France grâce au registre national REIN. Nous avons utilisé un modèle multi-états pour analyse l'influence de l'inscription sur liste d'attente de greffe sur la probabilité de décès en dialyse. (3) Sur une cohorte de 2790 patients âgés de plus de 65 ans et traités par dialyse péritonéale issus du Registre de Dialyse Péritonéale de Langue Française (RDPLF), nous avons analysé les facteurs de contre-indication au transfert en HD en prenant en compte le décès comme risque concurrent à l’aide du modèle de Fine et Gray. Cette analyse a été complétée par un questionnaire réalisé auprès 55 des néphrologues pratiquant la dialyse péritonéale en France. Résultats : (1) La méthode de Kaplan Meier surestimait systématiquement la probabilité de décès du fait de la violation de l'hypothèse d'indépendance entre le décès et les risques concurrents. Cette méthode n'apparaît donc pas valide dans les analyses de survie en dialyse. La méthode de Kalbfleisch et Prentice était valide mais l'interprétation des incidences cumulées doit prendre en compte tous les risques concurrents. (2) La greffe rénale est un risque concurrent dépendant de la probabilité de décès des patients. Les patients inscrits sur liste d'attente de greffe avaient un risque de décès significativement plus bas que les autres patients, après ajustement sur l'âge et la présence de comorbidités. (3) Le transfert en hémodialyse est un risque concurrent qui semble dépendre de la probabilité de décès des patients. En effet, l'âge et la présence de comorbidités étaient à la fois des facteurs de risque de décès et des facteurs de contre-indications au transfert en hémodialyse. De plus, la plupart des néphrologues ayant répondu à notre enquête ont déclaré qu'une espérance de vie limitée pouvait constituer une contre-indication au transfert. Conclusion : Dans les études de cohorte de patients en insuffisance rénale chronique terminale, les analyses de survie devraient prendre en compte les changements de traitement car ce sont des risques concurrents dépendants de la probabilité de décès. Notre travail a montré que les modèles multi-états sont des outils statistiques flexibles qui permettent de bien représenter l'inter-dépendance entre les différentes modalités de traitement entre dialyse péritonéale, hémodialyse, greffe rénale et décès

Restreindre l'exposition aux solutés très riches en glucose permet de préserver la membrane péritonéale lors de la dialyse péritonéale au long cours

LILLE2-BU Santé-Recherche (593502101) / SudocSudocFranceF