Are current dynamic water quality models too complex? A comparison of a new parsimonious phosphorus model, SimplyP, and INCA-P

Catchment-scale water quality models are becoming increasingly popular tools for exploring the potential effects of land management, land use change and climate change on water quality. However, the dynamic, catchment-scale nutrient models in common usage are complex, with many uncertain parameters requiring calibration, limiting their usability and robustness. A key question is whether this complexity is justified. To explore this, we have developed a parsimonious P model, SimplyP, incorporating a coupled rainfall-runoff model and a biogeochemical model able to simulate streamflow, suspended sediment, particulate and dissolved P dynamics. The model’s complexity is compared in a small rural catchment in northeast Scotland. For three land use classes, less than six SimplyP model parameters must be determined through calibration alone, the rest may be based on measurements; INCA-P has around 40 unmeasurable parameters. Despite simpler process-representation, SimplyP produced a slightly better dissolved P simulation during both calibration and validation, and produced similar long-term projections in response to changes in land management. Results support the hypothesis that INCA-P is overly complex for the study catchment. We hope our findings will help prompt wider model comparison exercises, as well as debate amongst the water quality modelling community as to whether today's models are fit for purpose. Simpler models such as SimplyP have the potential to be useful management and research tools, building blocks for future model development (prototype code is freely available), or benchmarks against which more complex models could be evaluated

The INtegrated CAtchment model of phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P): description and demonstration of new model structure and equations

INCA-P is a dynamic, catchment-scale phosphorus model which has been widely applied during the last decade. Since its original release in 2002, the model structure and equations have been significantly altered during several development phases. Here, we provide the first full model description since 2002 and then test the latest version of the model (v1.4.4) in a small rural catchment in northeast Scotland. The particulate phosphorus simulation was much improved compared to previous model versions, whilst the latest sorption equations allowed us to explore the potential time lags between reductions in terrestrial inputs and improvements in surface water quality, an issue of key policy relevance. The model is particularly suitable for use as a research tool, but should only be used to inform policy and land management in data-rich areas, where parameters and processes can be well-constrained. More long-term data is needed to parameterise dynamic models and test their predictions

Improving bank erosion modelling at catchment scale by incorporating temporal and spatial variability

Bank erosion can contribute a significant portion of the sediment budget within temperate catchments, yet few catchment scale models include an explicit representation of bank erosion processes. Furthermore, representation is often simplistic resulting in an inability to capture realistic spatial and temporal variability in simulated bank erosion. In this study, the sediment component of the catchment scale model SHETRAN is developed to incorporate key factors influencing the spatio-temporal rate of bank erosion, due to the effects of channel sinuosity and channel bank vegetation. The model is applied to the Eden catchment, north-west England, and validated using data derived from a GIS methodology. The developed model simulates magnitudes of total catchment annual bank erosion (617 - 4063 t yr-1) within the range of observed values (211 - 4426 t yr-1). Additionally the model provides both greater inter-annual and spatial variability of bank eroded sediment generation when compared with the basic model, and indicates a potential 61% increase of bank eroded sediment as a result of temporal flood clustering. The approach developed within this study can be used within a number of distributed hydrologic models and has general applicability to temperate catchments, yet further development of model representation of bank erosion processes is required

Catchment-scale sediment delivery : the development of a tool for the simulation of in-stream concentrations

Fine sediment acts as a critical transport vector for nutrients, trace metals and organic contaminants, and can have a severe detrimental effect on aquatic ecology and the viability of riverine habitats. An understanding of the II!.oyement of fme sediment within river catchments is therefore important. Modelling is an important tool for understanding and managing the catchmetn sediment delivery system. Existing modelling tools fall broadly into two categories: simple empirical models based on statistical relationships in observed data; and highly complex process-based models based on physical modelling of the mechanical processes involved in sediment delivery. De Roo (1998) expressd the need for a new type of model that makes a compromise between the catchment and process representation of complex models and the simplicity and wide-ranging applicability of empirical models. The aim of this thesis is to develop a new model that fulfils this need. The development of the model is guided by three criteria: • the model must require only readily available and significant data; • the model can use only a limited number of key variables and parameters; • the model should only include the dominant key processes controlling sediment delivery. In order to meet these criteria, new process-informed equations representing the key processes of sediment delivery are derived based on a review of existing modelling approaches. These equations simulate catchment hydrology and the processes of sediment erosion, transport and deposition within a semi-distributed model structure. The model is applied to three lowland catchments in Berkshire, England: the Upper Kennet, the Lambourn and the Enborne. Model output is shown to successfully reproduce observed river flows and suspended sediment concentrations, although there is a consistent underprediction ofthe highest flows and concentrations in all three catchments. The model successfully simulates the contrast between the hYdrology and sediment delivery of the Upper Kennet and Lambourn Chalk catchments and the clalbtchment of the Enborne. The model is subjected to a Monte Carlo based General Sensitivity Analysis. This analysis confirms the efficacy ofthe hydrological model and identifies the transport capacity of direct surface runoff as the critical process in the determination of in-stream suspended sediment concentrations. The results of the model applications and the sensitivity analysis are used to assess the success of the model in meeting the stated criteria. This assessment shows the model to be efficiently modelling the key elements of the catchment sediment delivery system.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Fine sediment delivery and transfer in lowland catchments: modelling suspended sediment concentrations in response to hydrological forcing

Fine sediment delivery to and storage in stream channel reaches can disrupt aquatic habitats, impact river hydromorphology, and transfer adsorbed nutrients and pollutants from catchment slopes to the fluvial system. This paper presents a modelling toot for simulating the time-dependent response of the fine sediment system in catchments, using an integrated approach that incorporates both land phase and in-stream processes of sediment generation, storage and transfer. The performance of the model is demonstrated by applying it to simulate in-stream suspended sediment concentrations in two lowland catchments in southern England, the Enborne and the Lambourn, which exhibit contrasting hydrological and sediment responses due to differences in substrate permeability. The sediment model performs well in the Enborne catchment, where direct runoff events are frequent and peak suspended sediment concentrations can exceed 600 mg l(-1). The general trends in the in-stream concentrations in the Lambourn catchment are also reproduced by the model, although the observed concentrations are low (rarely exceeding 50 mg l(-1)) and the background variability in the concentrations is not fully characterized by the model. Direct runoff events are rare in this highly permeable catchment, resulting in a weak coupling between the sediment delivery system and the catchment hydrology. The generic performance of the model is also assessed using a generalized sensitivity analysis based on the parameter bounds identified in the catchment applications. Results indicate that the hydrological parameters contributing to the sediment response include those controlling (1) the partitioning of runoff between surface and soil zone flows and (2) the fractional loss of direct runoff volume prior to channel delivery. The principal sediment processes controlling model behaviour in the simulations are the transport capacity of direct runoff and the in-stream generation, storage and release of the fine sediment fraction. The in-stream processes appear to be important in maintaining the suspended sediment concentrations during low flows in the River Enborne and throughout much of the year in the River Lambourn. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd