Redd+ conflict: Understanding the pathways between forest projects and social conflict

A growing body of literature analyses the conflict implications of REDD+ (Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries). However, the way these conflicts unfold is little understood. We address this research gap through the following question: What are the pathways that connect REDD+ projects and conflicts between local communities and other actors? We review 242 scientific articles, selecting eight that allow us to trace how the conflict pathways unfolded. We draw on a political ecology perspective and conceptualize ‘conflict pathway’ as an interaction of key events and drivers leading to conflict. We find six main conflict drivers: (1) injustices and restrictions over (full) access and control of forest resources; (2) creation of new forest governance structures that change relationships between stakeholders and the forest; (3) exclusion of community members from comprehensive project participation; (4) high project expectations that are not met; (5) changes in land tenure policy due to migrants, and (6) the aggravation of historic land tenure conflicts. Evictions from forests, acts of violence, and lawsuits are among the events contributing to the conflict pathways. To prevent them, the rights, livelihoods, and benefits of local communities need to be placed at the centre of the REDD+ projects

Resource-based conflicts in drought-prone Northwestern Kenya : the drivers and mitigation mechanisms

The theory of “resource scarcity” dominates the debate on “ecoviolence” in pastoral areas, where conflicts among communities have traditionally been linked to competition over scarce resources and invariably drought because of its role in resource depletion. However, the notion that climate change and resultant resource scarcity directly prompt violent conflict has been challenged by the notion that conflict actually coincide with periods of resource abundance. These contesting views point to nondeterministic linkage between resource availability and conflicts and, therefore, the complexity of pastoral conflicts. This is the scenario hypothesized for the vast pastoral areas of Kenya where violent conflict has become a chronic characteristic. While focusing on drought-induced conflicts over grazing resources, this paper takes cognizance of other factors that trigger and perpetuate violent conflicts in arid north-western Kenya. We present an insight on the nature, causes, dynamics and mitigation strategies of conflicts between the Turkana and Pokot pastoralists based on research study focusing on the linkages between resource availability and conflict. The findings suggest that violent conflicts in pastoral areas result from a myriad of socio-cultural, economic and political factors that reinforce one another by limiting availability of, depleting and reducing access to natural resource base. Competition for scarce natural resources triggered by frequent droughts and exacerbated by weak local institutions, proliferation of small firearms, political incitements, unclear property right regimes and cattle-raiding, was considered central to the violent conflicts observed in the area. The authors conclude that developing integrated policies and strengthening local governance institutions that are rooted in traditional practices for managing resources and inter-community conflicts is integral to the solution

Conflicts over Land as a Risk for Social-Ecological Resilience: A Transnational Comparative Analysis in the Southwestern Amazon

People in the department of Madre de Dios/Peru, the state of Acre/Brazil, and the department of Pando/Bolivia experience similar conflicts over land, land use, and access to resources. At the same time, each conflict reveals distinct characteristics and dynamics, arising from its history, legal regulation, institutional (in-)capacities, and culturally diverse local populations. The aim of this paper is to better understand the main drivers of social-ecological conflicts over land in and around three protected areas in this transboundary region, known as MAP, and to analyze how (environmental) institutions influence these drivers. The paper is based on a literature review and expert interviews; it focuses on conflicts around (1) gold mining in Madre de Dios, (2) extensive cattle ranching in Acre, and (3) access to communal land in Pando. Using theories of conflict research, expanded by a political ecology perspective and insights from stakeholder and expert interviews, we find that the major conflict drivers are (1) land tenure and access to land and natural resources, (2) identity and lifestyle driven transformations, (3) state and market driven agendas, and (4) networked illegal and criminal activities. Through a comparative conflict analysis, we develop four recommendations to strengthen the creation of reflexive institutions that may be able to foster social-ecological resilience in the region: (1) The clarification of responsibilities between governance institutions and their financing; (2) the awareness raising for existing power structures and opening spaces for enhanced local participation; (3) the breaking of corruptive cycles while developing economically, ecologically, and socially sustainable livelihood opportunities; and (4) taking the continuous reproduction of illegal activities into account while clarifying responsibilities, raising awareness, and breaking corruptive cycles. The results of our research therefore not only contribute to a better understanding of conflicts in the MAP region and the wider scientific literature on social-ecological conflicts and governance, but it is also the first paper that identifies entry points and prerequisites for the transformation from reactive to reflexive institutions in Amazonian societies

Describing complex interactions of social-ecological systems for tipping point assessments: an analytical framework

Humans play an interconnecting role in social-ecological systems (SES), they are part of these systems and act as agents of their destruction and regulation. This study aims to provide an analytical framework, which combines the concept of SES with the concept of tipping dynamics. As a result, we propose an analytical framework describing relevant dynamics and feedbacks within SES based on two matrixes: the “tipping matrix” and the “cross-impact matrix.” We take the Southwestern Amazon as an example for tropical regions at large and apply the proposed analytical framework to identify key underlying sub-systems within the study region: the soil ecosystem, the household livelihood system, the regional social system, and the regional climate system, which are interconnected through a network of feedbacks. We consider these sub-systems as tipping elements (TE), which when put under stress, can cross a tipping point (TP), resulting in a qualitative and potentially irreversible change of the respective TE. By systematically assessing linkages and feedbacks within and between TEs, our proposed analytical framework can provide an entry point for empirically assessing tipping point dynamics such as “tipping cascades,” which means that the crossing of a TP in one TE may force the tipping of another TE. Policy implications: The proposed joint description of the structure and dynamics within and across SES in respect to characteristics of tipping point dynamics promotes a better understanding of human-nature interactions and critical linkages within regional SES that may be used for effectively informing and directing empirical tipping point assessments, monitoring or intervention purposes. Thereby, the framework can inform policy-making for enhancing the resilience of regional SES

Describing complex interactions of social-ecological systems for tipping point assessments: an analytical framework

Humans play an interconnecting role in social-ecological systems (SES), they are part of these systems and act as agents of their destruction and regulation. This study aims to provide an analytical framework, which combines the concept of SES with the concept of tipping dynamics. As a result, we propose an analytical framework describing relevant dynamics and feedbacks within SES based on two matrixes: the “tipping matrix” and the “cross-impact matrix.” We take the Southwestern Amazon as an example for tropical regions at large and apply the proposed analytical framework to identify key underlying sub-systems within the study region: the soil ecosystem, the household livelihood system, the regional social system, and the regional climate system, which are interconnected through a network of feedbacks. We consider these sub-systems as tipping elements (TE), which when put under stress, can cross a tipping point (TP), resulting in a qualitative and potentially irreversible change of the respective TE. By systematically assessing linkages and feedbacks within and between TEs, our proposed analytical framework can provide an entry point for empirically assessing tipping point dynamics such as “tipping cascades,” which means that the crossing of a TP in one TE may force the tipping of another TE. Policy implications: The proposed joint description of the structure and dynamics within and across SES in respect to characteristics of tipping point dynamics promotes a better understanding of human-nature interactions and critical linkages within regional SES that may be used for effectively informing and directing empirical tipping point assessments, monitoring or intervention purposes. Thereby, the framework can inform policy-making for enhancing the resilience of regional SES

About the authors

Research on security-related aspects of climate change is an important element of climate change impact assessments. Hamburg has become a globally recognized center of pertinent analysis of the climate-conflict-nexus. The essays in this collection present a sample of the research conducted from 2009 to 2018 within an interdisciplinary cooperation of experts from Universität Hamburg and other institutions in Hamburg related to the research group “Climate Change and Security” (CLISEC). This collection of critical assessments covers a broad understanding of security, ranging from the question of climate change as a cause of violent conflict to conditions of human security in the Anthropocene. The in-depth analyses utilize a wide array of methodological approaches, from agent-based modeling to discourse analysis

Klimawandel, Hitze, Aggression und Konflikte

Die Zusammenhänge zwischen Umwelt- und Klimaveränderungen auf der einen und Gewalt und Konflikten auf der anderen Seite sind vielfältig und komplex. Ziel dieses Kapitels ist es, eine Einführung in die zentralen Konzepte und Theorien zu geben sowie den aktuellen Stand der Wissenschaft zusammenzufassen. Zudem wird ein Analyserahmen entwickelt, der die zentralen Konzepte Resilienz, Verwundbarkeit und Menschliche Sicherheit einbezieht. Um auch die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Kooperation darzustellen, wird der Ansatz des Environmental Peacebuildings eingeführt. Dabei wird nicht nur auf Klimaauswirkungen wie Dürren eingegangen, sondern auch die Rolle von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen, Klimaanpassung und bewusste Eingriffe in das Klimasystem, dem sogenannten Climate Engineering, als Konflikt- oder Kooperationsverstärker behandelt. Ein weiterer Abschnitt beschreibt die Heat Hypothesis und den aktuellen Forschungsstand zu Zusammenhängen zwischen Klimaveränderungen, Hitze und Aggression. Allgemein lässt sich festhalten, dass sowohl Klimaauswirkungen als auch Klimaschutz- und Klimaanpassungsmaßnahmen sowie Climate Engineering (Gewalt-)Konflikte verstärken oder hervorrufen können. Allerdings sind die Zusammenhänge indirekt und komplex. Wichtig sind Institutionen und Ressourcengovernance, denn sie entscheiden darüber, wer von einer veränderten Ressourcenverfügbarkeit profitiert und wer nicht. Die Heat Hypothesis weist darauf hin, dass Temperaturerhöhungen zu aggressivem Verhalten und Gewalttaten von Individuen beitragen können. Aber auch hier sind einfache Wirkungszusammenhänge nach dem Schema „heißer gleich mehr Gewalt“ empirisch nicht belegt. Vielmehr müssen soziale und ökonomische Kontextfaktoren, wie beispielsweise sozialer Status und Einkommensverhältnisse, berücksichtig werden

Climate change vulnerability, water resources and social implications in North Africa

North Africa is considered a climate change hot spot. Existing studies either focus on the physical aspects of climate change or discuss the social ones. The present article aims to address this divide by assessing and comparing the climate change vulnerability of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia and linking it to its social implications. The vulnerability assessment focuses on climate change exposure, water resources, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results suggest that all countries are exposed to strong temperature increases and a high drought risk under climate change. Algeria is most vulnerable to climate change, mainly due to the country’s high sensitivity. Across North Africa, the combination of climate change and strong population growth is very likely to further aggravate the already scarce water situation. The so-called Arab Spring has shown that social unrest is partly caused by unmet basic needs of the population for food and water. Thus, climate change may become an indirect driver of social instability in North Africa. To mitigate the impact of climate change, it is important to reduce economic and livelihood dependence on rain-fed agriculture, strengthen sustainable land use practices, and increase the adaptive capacity. Further, increased regional cooperation and sub-national vulnerability assessments are needed.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659National Geographic Society http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/10000636

Water Resources, Forced Migration and Tensions with Host Communities in the Nigerian Part of the Lake Chad Basin

The Lake Chad region is facing a nexus of interconnected problems including fragility, violent conflict, forced displacement, and scarcity of water and other resources, further aggravated by climate change. Focusing on northeast Nigeria, this study aims to answer the following questions: (1) What role does access to water and farming play in out-migration and return in northeast Nigeria? (2) What is the potential of tensions between internally displaced persons (IDPs) and host communities? Data for this study were collected between March and May 2019 by interviewing 304 local residents and IDPs in northeast Nigeria, as well as experts on migration, environmental, humanitarian and conflict-related issues in research centers and governmental institutions in Abuja. Given the pronounced water scarcity in the region, the results show that between 47% and 95% of rural community members interviewed in northeast Nigeria would be willing to migrate in cases of water scarcity. At the time of study, only 2.5% to 7% of respondents had migrated previously in response to water scarcity, indicating that insecurity and conflict were, however, more relevant drivers of displacement. Regarding our second research question, we find a potential for tensions between IDPs and host communities, as 85% of the interviewed host community members oppose the presence of the IDPs. Hence, measures are needed to improve relations between the two groups. In order to avoid a future scenario where water scarcity becomes a significant driver of migration, efficient management of water resources is paramount. Such action would not only address the issue of migration, but also strengthen the resilience of communities in northern Nigeria

The role of project components for the acceptance of an inner city river restoration project in Bad Bergzabern, Germany

The poor conditions of rivers worldwide make restoration an issue of great importance and urgency. The acceptance of restoration by society is crucial, however, the factors determining such acceptance are still poorly understood. In particular, the understanding of the complex interplay between the acceptance or rejection of specific project components and the acceptance of the overall project require further exploration. To address this research gap, we analyze a restoration project in Bad Bergzabern, Germany to (1) investigate the acceptance of the overall project and its components, and (2) explore why people accept or reject specific components. Three hundred and twenty-one in-person interviews were conducted and the factors of acceptance were analyzed using logistic regression. Our findings show that while acceptance of the overall project is generally high, many respondents reject one or more project components. Complementary social project components, like a playground, find less support than purely ecological components. Overall, our research shows that differences in the acceptance of components depend on individual concerns, the quality of communication, attachment to the site, and age. Our results contribute to a better understanding of preferences for river restoration projects and help water managers design restoration projects that are highly accepted by society. HIGHLIGHTS To increase the acceptance of WFD objectives and thus accelerate implementation, public concerns need to be taken seriously.; Social project components add value for the population, but also lead to new concerns that can jeopardize the acceptance of river restoration projects.; Cost and flood concerns are partly based on wrong assumptions and needlessly lower the acceptance of river restoration projects.