Projecting the impacts of the bioeconomy on Nordic land use and freshwater quality and quantity-An overview

This paper synthesizes a five-year project (BIOWATER) that assessed the effects of a developing bioeconomy on Nordic freshwaters. We used a catchment perspective and combined several approaches: comparative analyses of long-term data sets from well-monitored catchments (agricultural, with forestry, and near pristine) across Fennoscandia, catchment biogeochemical modelling and ecosystem services assessment for integration. Various mitigation measures were also studied. Benchmark Shared Socio-economic Pathways were downscaled and articulated in dialogue with national stakeholder representatives leading to five Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways (NBPs) describing plausible but different trajectories of societal development towards 2050.These were then used for catchment modelling and ecosystem service assessment. Key findings from the work synthesized here are: (a) The monitoring results from 69 catchments demonstrate that agricultural lands exported an order of magnitude more nutrients than natural catchments (medians 44 vs 4 kg P km-2 y-1 and 1450 vs 139 kg N km-2 y-1) whilst forests were intermediate (7 kg P km-2 y-1 and 200 kg N km-2 y-1). (b) Our contrasting scenarios led to substantial differences in land use patterns, which affected river flow as well as nutrient loads in two of the four modelled catchments (Danish Odense angstrom and Norwegian Skuterud), but not in two others (Swedish catchment C6 and Finnish Simojoki). (c) Strongly contrasting scenarios (NBP1 maximizing resource circularity versus NBP5 maximizing short-term profit) were found to lead to similar monetary estimates of total societal benefits, though for different underlying reasons - a pattern similar across the six studied Nordic catchments. (d) The ecological status of small to medium sized rivers in agricultural landscapes benefitted greatly from an increase in riparian forest cover from 10 % to 60 %. Riparian buffer strips, constructed wetlands, rewetting of ditched peatlands, and similar nature-based solutions optimize natural biogeochemical processes and thus can help in mitigating negative impacts of intensified biomass removal on water quality

Visions for the North Sea: The Societal Dilemma Behind Specifying Good Environmental Status.

We augment discussions about the Good Environmental Status of the North Sea by developing two extreme visions and assessing their societal benefits. One vision (‘Then’) assumes restoration of benthic functioning; we contend that trawling had already degraded the southern North Sea a century ago. Available information is used to speculate about benthic functioning in a relatively undisturbed southern North Sea. The second vision (‘Now’) draws on recent benthic functioning. The supply of five ecosystem services, supported by benthic functioning, is discussed. ‘Then’ offers confidence in the sustainable supply of diverse services but restoration of past function is uncertain and likely to be paired with costs, notably trawling restraints. ‘Now’ delivers known and valued services but sustained delivery is threatened by, for example, climate change. We do not advocate either vision. Our purpose is to stimulate debate about what society wants, and might receive, from the future southern North Sea

Catchment effects of a future Nordic bioeconomy : From land use to water resources

In the future, the world is expected to rely increasingly on renewable biomass resources for food, fodder, fibre and fuel. The sustainability of this transition to bioeconomy for our water systems depends to a large extent on how we manage our land resources. Changes in land use together with climate change will affect water quantity and quality, which again will have implications for the ecosystem services provided by water resources. These are the main topics of this Ambio special issue on “Environmental effects of a green bio-economy”. This paper offers a summary of the eleven papers included in this issue and, at the same time, outlines an approach to quantify and mitigate the impacts of bioeconomy on water resources and their ecosystem services, with indications of useful tools and knowledge needs

Seasonality and depth zonation of intertidal Halophila ovalis and Zostera japonica in Ha Long Bay (northern Vietnam)

Abstract Seasonality and depth zonation of two common intertidal northern Vietnamese seagrass species, Halophila ovalis and Zostera japonica, were investigated in a 50 m long intertidal transect from 1999 till 2001. Z. japonica occurred in the middle intertidal (1.2 m above mean chart datum to mean sea level at

Assessing the societal benefits of river restoration using the ecosystem services approach

This paper is a contribution from the EU seventh framework funded research project REFORM (Grant Agreement 282656).The success of river restoration was estimated using the ecosystem services approach. In eight pairs of restored–unrestored reaches and floodplains across Europe, we quantified provisioning (agricultural products, wood, reed for thatching, infiltrated drinking water), regulating (flooding and drainage, nutrient retention, carbon sequestration) and cultural (recreational hunting and fishing, kayaking, biodiversity conservation, appreciation of scenic landscapes) services for separate habitats within each reach, and summed these to annual economic value normalized per reach area. We used locally available data and literature, did surveys among inhabitants and visitors, and used a range of economic methods (market value, shadow price, replacement cost, avoided damage, willingness-to-pay survey, choice experiment) to provide final monetary service estimates. Total ecosystem service value was significantly increased in the restored reaches (difference 1400 ± 600 € ha−1 year−1; 2500 − 1100, p = 0.03, paired t test). Removal of one extreme case did not affect this outcome. We analysed the relation between services delivered and with floodplain and catchment characteristics after reducing these 23 variables to four principal components explaining 80% of the variance. Cultural and regulating services correlated positively with human population density, cattle density and agricultural N surplus in the catchment, but not with the fraction of arable land or forest, floodplain slope, mean river discharge or GDP. Our interpretation is that landscape appreciation and flood risk alleviation are a function of human population density, but not wealth, in areas where dairy farming is the prime form of agriculture.PostprintPeer reviewe

Occupational exposure to gases/fumes and mineral dust affect DNA methylation levels of genes regulating expression

Many workers are daily exposed to occupational agents like gases/fumes, mineral dust or biological dust, which could induce adverse health effects. Epigenetic mechanisms, such as DNA methylation, have been suggested to play a role. We therefore aimed to identify differentially methylated regions (DMRs) upon occupational exposures in never-smokers and investigated if these DMRs associated with gene expression levels. To determine the effects of occupational exposures independent of smoking, 903 never-smokers of the LifeLines cohort study were included. We performed three genome-wide methylation analyses (Illumina 450 K), one per occupational exposure being gases/fumes, mineral dust and biological dust, using robust linear regression adjusted for appropriate confounders. DMRs were identified using comb-p in Python. Results were validated in the Rotterdam Study (233 never-smokers) and methylation-expression associations were assessed using Biobank-based Integrative Omics Study data (n = 2802). Of the total 21 significant DMRs, 14 DMRs were associated with gases/fumes and 7 with mineral dust. Three of these DMRs were associated with both exposures (RPLP1 and LINC02169 (2x)) and 11 DMRs were located within transcript start sites of gene expression regulating genes. We replicated two DMRs with gases/fumes (VTRNA2-1 and GNAS) and one with mineral dust (CCDC144NL). In addition, nine gases/fumes DMRs and six mineral dust DMRs significantly associated with gene expression levels. Our data suggest that occupational exposures may induce differential methylation of gene expression regulating genes and thereby may induce adverse health effects. Given the millions of workers that are exposed daily to occupational exposures, further studies on this epigenetic mechanism and health outcomes are warranted

MYD88 mutations identify a molecular subgroup of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma with an unfavorable prognosis

The 2016 World Health Organization classification defines diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) subtypes based on Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection and oncogenic rearrangements of MYC/BCL2/BCL6 as drivers of lymphomagenesis. A subset of DLBCL, however, is characterized by activating mutations in MYD88/CD79B. We investigated whether MYD88/CD79B mutations could improve the classification and prognostication of DLBCL. In 250 primary DLBCL, MYD88/CD79B mutations were identified by allele-specific polymerase chain reaction or next-generationsequencing, MYC/BCL2/BCL6 rearrangements were analyzed by fluorescence in situ hybridization, and EBV was studied by EBV-encoded RNA in situ hybridization. Associations of molecular features with clinicopathologic characteristics, outcome, and prognosis according to the International Prognostic Index (IPI) were investigated. MYD88 and CD79B mutations were identified in 29.6% and 12.3%, MYC, BCL2, and BCL6 rearrangements in 10.6%, 13.6%, and 20.3%, and EBV in 11.7% of DLBCL, respectively. Prominent mutual exclusivity between EBV positivity, rearrangements, and MYD88/CD79B mutations established the value of molecular markers for the recognition of biologically distinct DLBCL subtypes. MYD88-mutated DLBCL had a significantly inferior 5-year overall survival than wild-type MYD88 DLBCL (log-rank; P=0.019). DLBCL without any of the studied aberrations had superior overall survival compared to cases carrying .1 aberrancy (log-rank; P=0.010). MYD88 mutations retained their adverse prognostic impact upon adjustment for other genetic and clinical variables by multivariable analysis and improved the prognostic performance of the IPI. This study demonstrates the clinical utility of defining MYD88-mutated DLBCL as a distinct molecular subtype with adverse prognosis. Our data call for sequence analysis of MYD88 in routine diagnostics of DLBCL to optimize classification and prognostication, and to guide the development of improved treatment strategies

Viability of meta-populations of wetland birds in a fragmented landscape: Testing the key-patch approach

The key patch approach assumes that metapopulations in fragmented landscapes are likely to be viable with at least one "key" sub-population that is sufficiently large to ensure re-colonization of surrounding minor habitat patches. It is based on a minimum viable number of breeding pairs and within-breeding season dispersal distance, linked to size of the animal and longevity. It was tested using census data of 15 wetland bird species (bearded tit, bluethroat, great reed warbler, sedge warbler, Savi's warbler, grasshopper warbler, spotted crake, water rail, common snipe, common teal, garganey, little bittern, night heron, great bittern and marsh harrier) in 14 wetland complexes of variable size (3-55 k