Analyzing Policy Risk and Accounting for Strategy: Auctions in the National Airspace System

We examine the potential for simple auction mechanisms to efficiently allocate arrival and departure slots during Ground Delay Programs (GDPs). The analysis is conducted using a new approach to predicting strategic behavior called Predictive Game Theory (PGT). The difference between PGT and the familiar Equilibrium Concept Approach (ECA) is that PGT models produce distribution-valued solut tion concepts rather than set-valued ones. The advantages of PGT over ECA in policy analysis and design are that PGT allows for decision-theoretic prediction and policy evaluation. Furthermore, PGT allows for a comprehensive account of risk, including two types of risk, systematic and modeling, that cannot be considered with the ECA. The results show that the second price auction dominates the first price auction in many decision-relevant categories, including higher expected efficiency, lower variance in efficiency, lower probability of significant efficiency loss and higher probability of significant efficiency gain. These findings are despite the fact that there is no a priori reason to expect the second price auction to be more efficient because none of the conventional reasons for preferring second price over first price auctions, i.e. dominant strategy implementability, apply to the GDP slot auction setting.auction, ground delay program, entropy, predictive game theory, strategic risk

How to Use Decision Theory to Choose Among Mechanisms

We extend a recently introduced approach to the positive problem of game theory, Predictive Game Theory (PGT Wolpert (2008). In PGT, modeling a game results in a probability distribution over possible behavior profiles. This contrasts with the conventional approach where modeling a game results in an equilibrium set of possible behavior profiles. We analyze three PGT models. Two of these are based on the well-known quantal response and epsilon equilibrium concepts, while the third is entirely new to the economics literature. We use a Cournot game to demonstrate how to use our extension of PGT, concentrating on model combination, modeler uncertainty, and mechanism design. In particular, we emphasize how PGT allows a modeler to perform prediction and mechanism design in a manner that is fully consistent with decision theory. We do this even in situations where conventional approaches yield multiple equilibria, an ability that is necessary for a fully decision theoretic mechanism design. Where possible, PGT results are compared against equilibrium set analogs.

Game Mining: How to Make Money from those about to Play a Game

It is known that a player in a noncooperative game can benefit by publicly re- stricting their possible moves before start of play. We show that, more generally, a player may benefit by publicly committing to pay an external party an amount that is contingent on the game's outcome. We explore what happens when external parties (who we call game miners) discover this fact and seek to profit from it by entering an outcome-contingent contract with the players. We analyze various bargaining games between miners and players for determining such an outcome- contingent contract. We establish restrictions on the strategic settings in which a game miner can profit, and bounds on the game miner's profit given various structured bargaining games. These bargaining games include playing the players against one another, as well as allowing the players to pay the miner(s) for exclu- sivity and first-mover advantage. We also establish that when all players can enter contracts with miners, to guarantee the existence of equilibria it is necessary to assume that players can randomize over the contracts they make.

Complete Genome Sequence of UV-Resistant \u3ci\u3eCampylobacter jejuni\u3c/i\u3e RM3194, Including an 81.08-Kilobase Plasmid

Annually, Campylobacter spp. are responsible for the greatest number of foodborne gastrointestinal bacterial infections in the developed world (1, 2). However, Campylobacter spp. are nutritionally fastidious organisms requiring a microaerobic environment for survival (3). It remains uncertain by what mechanisms Campylobacter survives within multiple hostile environments in sufficient numbers to cause such significant amounts of human disease. Campylobacter jejuni strain RM3194 was isolated from a clinical sample in 1994 from a human enteritis case at the Red Cross War Memorial Children’s Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa, and was supplied to our laboratory by Robert Mandrell (ARS, Albany, CA) (4, 5). In our research, RM3194 demonstrated an increased resistance to both UV (254 nm) and blue light (405 nm) (6). This resistance produced several-log-greater survival after challenge with UVlight compared to the survival of other C. jejuni strains in our collection

Complete Genome Sequence of UV-Resistant \u3ci\u3eCampylobacter jejuni\u3c/i\u3e RM3194, Including an 81.08-Kilobase Plasmid

Annually, Campylobacter spp. are responsible for the greatest number of foodborne gastrointestinal bacterial infections in the developed world (1, 2). However, Campylobacter spp. are nutritionally fastidious organisms requiring a microaerobic environment for survival (3). It remains uncertain by what mechanisms Campylobacter survives within multiple hostile environments in sufficient numbers to cause such significant amounts of human disease. Campylobacter jejuni strain RM3194 was isolated from a clinical sample in 1994 from a human enteritis case at the Red Cross War Memorial Children’s Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa, and was supplied to our laboratory by Robert Mandrell (ARS, Albany, CA) (4, 5). In our research, RM3194 demonstrated an increased resistance to both UV (254 nm) and blue light (405 nm) (6). This resistance produced several-log-greater survival after challenge with UVlight compared to the survival of other C. jejuni strains in our collection

Association of \u3ci\u3eEscherichia coli\u3c/i\u3e O157:H7 \u3ci\u3etir\u3c/i\u3e polymorphisms with human infection

Background: Emerging molecular, animal model and epidemiologic evidence suggests that Shigatoxigenic Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC O157) isolates vary in their capacity to cause human infection and disease. The translocated intimin receptor (tir) and intimin (eae) are virulence factors and bacterial receptor-ligand proteins responsible for tight STEC O157 adherence to intestinal epithelial cells. They represent logical genomic targets to investigate the role of sequence variation in STEC O157 pathogenesis and molecular epidemiology. The purposes of this study were (1) to identify tir and eae polymorphisms in diverse STEC O157 isolates derived from clinically ill humans and healthy cattle (the dominant zoonotic reservoir) and (2) to test any observed tir and eae polymorphisms for association with human (vs bovine) isolate source. Results: Five polymorphisms were identified in a 1,627-bp segment of tir. Alleles of two tir polymorphisms, tir 255 T\u3eA and repeat region 1-repeat unit 3 (RR1-RU3, presence or absence) had dissimilar distributions among human and bovine isolates. More than 99% of 108 human isolates possessed the tir 255 T\u3eA T allele and lacked RR1-RU3. In contrast, the tir 255 T\u3eA T allele and RR1-RU3 absence were found in 55% and 57%, respectively, of 77 bovine isolates. Both polymorphisms associated strongly with isolate source (p \u3c 0.0001), but not by pulsed field gel electrophoresis type or by stx1 and stx2 status (as determined by PCR). Two eae polymorphisms were identified in a 2,755-bp segment of 44 human and bovine isolates; 42 isolates had identical eae sequences. The eae polymorphisms did not associate with isolate source. Conclusion: Polymorphisms in tir but not eae predict the propensity of STEC O157 isolates to cause human clinical disease. The over-representation of the tir 255 T\u3eA T allele in human-derived isolates vs the tir 255 T\u3eA A allele suggests that these isolates have a higher propensity to cause disease. The high frequency of bovine isolates with the A allele suggests a possible bovine ecological niche for this STEC O157 subset

Combining Enzalutamide with Abiraterone, Prednisone, and Androgen Deprivation Therapy in the STAMPEDE Trial

There are compelling reasons to study the addition of both enzalutamide and abiraterone, in combination, to standard-of-care for hormone-naïve prostate cancer. Through a protocol amendment, this will be assessed in the STAMPEDE trial, with overall survival as primary outcome measure. © 2014 European Association of Urology

Flexible trial design in practice – dropping and adding arms in STAMPEDE: a multi-arm multi-stage randomised controlled trial

The trial recruits men with locally advanced or metastatic prostate cancer starting standard long-term hormone therapy. There are 5 research arms and 1 control arm. The trial has a pilot stage assessing safety and feasibility, 3 intermediate “activity” stages (I-III) where the outcome measure is failure-free survival (FFS) and one final “efficacy” stage (IV) with overall survival as primary outcome measure. At the end of each stage, each research arm is formally compared pairwise to the control arm. Accrual of further patients is discontinued early for any research arm either not showing sufficient evidence of activity or with adverse safety considerations; accrual continues to arms showing activity with acceptable safety. The stopping guideline compares the treatment effect against a pre-defined cut-off value using the hazard ratio when the hazards are proportional and restricted-mean survival time otherwise. This interim hurdle becomes increasingly stringent stage-by-stage. The addition of new research arm(s) can be actively considered when sufficiently interesting agents emerge. New research arms are compared only to contemporaneously-recruited control arm patients using the same intermediate guidelines in a time-delayed manner. The addition of new research arms is independent of any of the original research arms stopping accrual early subject to adequate recruitment to support the overall trial aims

Young children's research: children aged 4-8 years finding solutions at home and at school

Children's research capacities have become increasingly recognised by adults, yet children remain excluded from the academy, with reports of their research participation generally located in adults' agenda. Such practice restricts children's freedom to make choices in matters affecting them, underestimates children’s capabilities and denies children particular rights. The present paper reports on one aspect of a small-scale critical ethnographic study adopting a constructivist grounded approach to conceptualise ways in which children's naturalistic behaviours may be perceived as research. The study builds on multi-disciplinary theoretical perspectives, embracing 'new' sociology, psychology, economics, philosophy and early childhood education and care (ECEC). Research questions include: 'What is the nature of ECEC research?' and 'Do children’s enquiries count as research?' Initially, data were collected from the academy: professional researchers (n=14) confirmed 'finding solutions' as a research behaviour and indicated children aged 4-8 years, their practitioners and primary carers as 'theoretical sampling'. Consequently, multi-modal case studies were constructed with children (n=138) and their practitioners (n=17) in three ‘good’ schools, with selected children and their primary carers also participating at home. This paper reports on data emerging from children aged 4-8 years at school (n=17) and at home (n=5). Outcomes indicate that participating children found diverse solutions to diverse problems, some of which they set themselves. Some solutions engaged children in high order thinking, whilst others did not; selecting resources and trialing activities engaged children in 'finding solutions'. Conversely, when children's time, provocations and activities were directed by adults, the quality of their solutions was limited, they focused on pleasing adults and their motivation to propose solutions decreased. In this study, professional researchers recognised 'finding solutions' as research behaviour and children aged 4-8 years naturalistically presented with capacities for finding solutions; however, the children's encounters with adults affected the solutions they found