The Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS)

During the period 1 September 1993 - 31 August 1994, further development of the Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) was conducted at the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) of the Institute of Global Environment and Society, Inc. (IGES) under subcontract 5555-31 from the University Space Research Association (USRA) administered by The Center of Excellence in Space Data and Information Sciences (CESDIS). This final report documents progress made under this subcontract and provides directions on how to access the software and documentation developed therein. A short description of GrADS is provided followed by summary of progress completed and a summary of the distribution of the software to date and the establishment of research collaborations

Future changes in the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity projected by a multidecadal simulation with a 16-km global atmospheric GCM

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity

Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)-Phase II models are evaluated in terms of their retrospective seasonal forecast skill of the North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclone (TC) activity, with a focus on TC frequency. The TC identification and tracking algorithm is modified to accommodate model data at daily resolution. It is also applied to three reanalysis products at the spatial and temporal resolution of the NMME-Phase II ensemble to allow for a more objective estimation of forecast skill. When used with the reanalysis data, the TC tracking generates realistic climatological distributions of the NA TC formation and tracks, and represents the interannual variability of the NA TC frequency quite well. Forecasts with the multi-model ensemble (MME) when initialized in April and later tend to have skill in predicting the NA seasonal TC counts (and TC days). At longer leads, the skill is low or marginal, although one of the models produces skillful forecasts when initialized as early as January and February. At short lead times, while demonstrating the highest skill levels the MME also tends to significantly outperform the individual models and attain skill comparable to the reanalysis. In addition, the short-lead MME forecasts are quite reliable. At regional scales, the skill is rather limited and mostly present in the western tropical NA and the Caribbean Sea. It is found that the overall MME forecast skill is limited by poor representation of the low-frequency variability in the predicted TC frequency, and large fluctuations in skill on decadal time scales. Addressing these deficiencies is thought to increase the value of the NMME ensemble in providing operational guidance

North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments: Part III: Assessment of Twenty-First-Century Projections

In part III of a three-part study on North American climate in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models, the authors examine projections of twenty-first-century climate in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission experiments. This paper summarizes and synthesizes results from several coordinated studies by the authors. Aspects of North American climate change that are examined include changes in continental-scale temperature and the hydrologic cycle, extremes events, and storm tracks, as well as regional manifestations of these climate variables. The authors also examine changes in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and North American intraseasonal to decadal variability, including changes in teleconnections to other regions of the globe. Projected changes are generally consistent with those previously published for CMIP3, although CMIP5 model projections differ importantly from those of CMIP3 in some aspects, including CMIP5 model agreement on increased central California precipitation. The paper also highlights uncertainties and limitations based on current results as priorities for further research. Although many projected changes in North American climate are consistent across CMIP5 models, substantial intermodel disagreement exists in other aspects. Areas of disagreement include projections of changes in snow water equivalent on a regional basis, summer Arctic sea ice extent, the magnitude and sign of regional precipitation changes, extreme heat events across the northern United States, and Atlantic and east Pacific tropical cyclone activity

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Phase-2 Toward Developing Intra-Seasonal Prediction

The recent US National Academies report "Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability" was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive capability. Indeed, this effort is required to meet the specific tailored regional prediction and decision support needs of a large community of climate information users. The multi-model ensemble approach has proven extremely effective at quantifying prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in model formulation, and has proven to produce better prediction quality (on average) then any single model ensemble. This multi-model approach is the basis for several international collaborative prediction research efforts, an operational European system and there are numerous examples of how this multi-model ensemble approach yields superior forecasts compared to any single model. Based on two NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) NMME workshops (February 18, and April 8, 2011) a collaborative and coordinated implementation strategy for a NMME prediction system has been developed and is currently delivering real-time seasonal-to-interannual predictions on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operational schedule. The hindcast and real-time prediction data is readily available (e.g., http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/) and in graphical format from CPC (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51yf/NMME/index.html). Moreover, the NMME forecast are already currently being used as guidance for operational forecasters. This paper describes the new NMME effort, presents an overview of the multi-model forecast quality, and the complementary skill associated with individual models

IL-2 Immunotherapy to Recently HIV-1 Infected Adults Maintains the Numbers of IL-17 Expressing CD4+ T (TH17) Cells in the Periphery

Little is known about the manipulation of IL-17 producing CD4+ T cells (TH17) on a per-cell basis in humans in vivo. Previous studies on the effects of IL-2 on IL-17 secretion in non-HIV models have shown divergent results. We hypothesized that IL-2 would mediate changes in IL-17 levels among recently HIV-1-infected adults receiving anti-retroviral therapy. We measured cytokine T cell responses to CD3/CD28, HIV-1 Gag, and CMV pp65 stimulation, and changes in multiple CD4+ T cell subsets. Those who received IL-2 showed a robust expansion of naive and total CD4+ T cell counts and T-reg counts. However, after IL-2 treatment, the frequency of TH17 cells declined, while counts of TH17 cells did not change due to an expansion of the CD4+ naïve T cell population (CD27+CD45RA+). Counts of HIV-1 Gag-specific T cells declined modestly, but CMV pp65 and CD3/CD28 stimulated populations did not change. Hence, in contrast with recent studies, our results suggest IL-2 is not a potent in vivo regulator of TH17 cell populations in HIV-1 disease. However, IL-2-mediated T-reg expansions may selectively reduce responses to certain antigen-specific populations, such as HIV-1 Gag

Prior mucosal exposure to heterologous cells alters the pathogenesis of cell-associated mucosal feline immunodeficiency virus challenge

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several lines of research suggest that exposure to cellular material can alter the susceptibility to infection by HIV-1. Because sexual contact often includes exposure to cellular material, we hypothesized that repeated mucosal exposure to heterologous cells would induce an immune response that would alter the susceptibility to mucosal infection. Using the feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) model of HIV-1 mucosal transmission, the cervicovaginal mucosa was exposed once weekly for 12 weeks to 5,000 heterologous cells or media (control) and then cats were vaginally challenged with cell-associated or cell-free FIV.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Exposure to heterologous cells decreased the percentage of lymphocytes in the mucosal and systemic lymph nodes (LN) expressing L-selectin as well as the percentage of CD4+ CD25+ T cells. These shifts were associated with enhanced ex-vivo proliferative responses to heterologous cells. Following mucosal challenge with cell-associated, but not cell-free, FIV, proviral burden was reduced by 64% in cats previously exposed to heterologous cells as compared to media exposed controls.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The pathogenesis and/or the threshold for mucosal infection by infected cells (but not cell-free virus) can be modulated by mucosal exposure to uninfected heterologous cells.</p

HIV-1 envelope, integrins and co-receptor use in mucosal transmission of HIV

It is well established that HIV-1 infection typically involves an interaction between the viral envelope protein gp120/41 and the CD4 molecule followed by a second interaction with a chemokine receptor, usually CCR5 or CXCR4. In the early stages of an HIV-1 infection CCR5 using viruses (R5 viruses) predominate. In some viral subtypes there is a propensity to switch to CXCR4 usage (X4 viruses). The receptor switch occurs in ~ 40% of the infected individuals and is associated with faster disease progression. This holds for subtypes B and D, but occurs less frequently in subtypes A and C. There are several hypotheses to explain the preferential transmission of R5 viruses and the mechanisms that lead to switching of co-receptor usage; however, there is no definitive explanation for either. One important consideration regarding transmission is that signaling by R5 gp120 may facilitate transmission of R5 viruses by inducing a permissive environment for HIV replication. In the case of sexual transmission, infection by HIV requires the virus to breach the mucosal barrier to gain access to the immune cell targets that it infects; however, the immediate events that follow HIV exposure at genital mucosal sites are not well understood. Upon transmission, the HIV quasispecies that is replicating in an infected donor contracts through a “genetic bottleneck”, and often infection results from a single infectious event. Many details surrounding this initial infection remain unresolved. In mucosal tissues, CD4+ T cells express high levels of CCR5, and a subset of these CD4+/CCR5high cells express the integrin α4β7, the gut homing receptor. CD4+/CCR5high/ α4β7high T cells are highly susceptible to infection by HIV-1 and are ideal targets for an efficient productive infection at the point of transmission. In this context we have demonstrated that the HIV-1 envelope protein gp120 binds to α4β7 on CD4+ T cells. On CD4+/CCR5high/ α4β7high T cells, α4β7 is closely associated with CD4 and CCR5. Furthermore, α4β7 is ~3 times the size of CD4 on the cell surface, that makes it a prominent receptor for an efficient virus capture. gp120-α4β7 interactions mediate the activation of the adhesion-associated integrin LFA-1. LFA-1 facilitates the formation of virological synapses and cell-to-cell spread of HIV-1. gp120 binding to α4β7 is mediated by a tripeptide located in the V1/V2 domain of gp120. Of note, the V1/V2 domain of gp120 has been linked to variations in transmission fitness among viral isolates raising the intriguing possibility that gp120-α4β7 interactions may be linked to transmission fitness. Although many details remain unresolved, we hypothesize that gp120-α4β7 interactions play an important role in the very early events following sexual transmission of HIV and may have important implication in the design of vaccine strategies for the prevention of acquisition of HIV infectio

Impact of Land Surface Initialization and Land-Atmosphere Coupling on the Prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon with the CFSv2

The impact of initial land-surface states on monthly to seasonal prediction skill of the Indian summer monsoon (June–September) is investigated using a suite of hindcasts made with the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) operational forecast model. The modern paradigm of land-atmosphere coupling is applied to quantify biases in different components of the land-atmosphere coupled system and their effect on systematic errors. Three sets of hindcasts are performed for the period spanning 1982–2009 initialized at the start of April, May, and June. For a particular initial date of a given year, one member (Control run) has the analyzed land initial state consistent with the atmosphere, sea ice and ocean states for that year; the other 27 members have land states taken from each of the remaining 27 years. There is significant improvement in the deterministic prediction skill of near surface temperature and soil moisture on monthly and seasonal time scales due to realistic land initial conditions. The improvement occurs in those areas where the land-atmosphere coupling is strongest. Improvements in the prediction skill of precipitation are confined to relatively small areas. The pattern of skill differences resembles patterns of land-atmosphere coupling strength, while biases in the representation of land-atmosphere coupling affect the skill of temperature and rainfall. The re-emergence of skill in temperature and precipitation toward the end of the season over northwest India within April and June IC hindcasts may be attributed to better simulation of the withdrawal phase of the monsoon as well as increased land-atmosphere coupling. For May IC hindcasts, increased skill in air temperature on the sub-seasonal time scales could also be due to other large-scale factors. Errors in the parameterization of radiation, convection, boundary layer processes, surface moisture fluxes, and the representation of vegetation contribute to decay in potential predictability and skill attributable to land initial conditions. Furthermore, incorrect representation of daily and sub-daily precipitation statistics over land also likely lead to errors in land-atmosphere coupling. Above all, the importance of accurate land surface initialization and land-atmosphere coupling in improving the Indian summer monsoon prediction on sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales is emphasized