Vacillation and Stability in American Public Opinion Toward Military and Foreign Policy

Vacillation and an absence of stability in American public opinion is often cited as a destabilizing element in U.S. military and foreign policy. The author\u27s findings do not support this popular belief

An Analysis of Private School Closings

We add to the small literature on private school supply by exploring exits of K-12 private schools. We find that the closure of private schools is not an infrequent event, and use national survey data from the National Center for Education Statistics to study closures of private schools. We assume that the probability of an exit is a function of excess supply of private schools over the demand, as well as the school's characteristics such as age, size, and religious affiliation. Our empirical results generally support the implications of the model. Working Paper 07-0

Can strategic uncertainty help deter tax evasion? An experiment on auditing rules

This paper adds to the economic-psychological research on tax compliance by experimentally testing a simple auditing rule that induces strategic uncertainty among taxpayers. Under this rule, termed the bounded rule, taxpayers are informed of the maximum number of audits by a tax authority, so that the audit probability depends on the joint decisions among the taxpayers. We compare the bounded rule to the widely studied flat-rate rule, where taxpayers are informed that they will be audited with a constant probability. The experimental evidence shows that, as theoretically predicted, the bounded rule induces the same level of compliance as the flat- rate rule when strategic uncertainty is low, and a higher level of compliance when strategic uncertainty is high. The bounded rule also suppresses the "bomb crater" effect often observed in prior studies. The results suggest that strategic uncertainty due to interactions among taxpayers could be an effective device to deter tax evasion

Risk Tolerance, Self-Interest, and Social Preferences

We use an experimental method to investigate whether systematic relationships exist across distinct aspects of individual preferences: risk aversion in monetary outcomes, altruism in a twoperson context, and social preferences in a larger group context. Individual preferences across these three contexts are measured, and there is no possibility for risk sharing, wealth effects, or updating expectations of the population choices. We find that social preferences are related to demographic variables, including years of education, gender, and age. Perhaps most importantly, self allocation in a two-person dictator game is related to social preferences in a group context. Participants who are more generous in a dictator game are more likely to vote against their selfinterest in a group decision-making task which we interpret to be expressions of social preferences

Military Retention Incentives: Evidence from the Air Force Selective Reenlistment Bonus

The limited lateral entry and rigid pay structure for U.S. military personnel present challenges in retaining skilled individuals who have attractive options in the civilian labor market. One tool the services use to address this challenge is the Selective Reenlistment Bonus (SRB), which offers eligible personnel with particular skills a substantial cash bonus upon reenlistment. However, the sequential nature of the bonus offer and reenlistment process limits the ability to adjust manpower quickly, raising interest in research that estimates the effect of the SRB on retention. While this literature has acknowledged challenges including potential endogeneity of bonus levels, attrition, and reenlistment eligibility, many studies do not address these concerns adequately. This paper uses a comprehensive panel data set on Air Force enlisted personnel to estimate the effect of the SRB on retention rates. We exploit variation in bonus levels within skill groups, control for civilian labor market conditions, and model reenlistment eligibility to avoid common assumptions that lead to biased impact estimates. We find substantial heterogeneity in the effect of the bonus, with the largest effects on first-term service members and those whose skills have not historically received a substantial bonus. We also find evidence that the bonus affects the timing of reenlistment decisions in addition to their frequency

Community-level impacts of the third sector: Does the local distribution of voluntary organizations influence the likelihood of volunteering?

Scholars have attributed various beneficial outcomes to the presence and density of the voluntary, third or non-profit sector in communities. One way in which the distribution of such organizations may benefit communities is through providing opportunities for volunteering. We hypothesize that the distribution of third-sector organizations has an influence, after controlling for relevant individual and area characteristics, on the likelihood of engaging in formal volunteering (defined as unpaid help given through, and to, third-sector organizations, rather than directly to individuals). Using administrative data from the Charity Commission, we classify organizations in terms of their geographical scale of operation. We then construct indicators of the distribution of charities, and their expenditures, for local authorities in England. We obtain data on volunteering by individuals from the Citizenship Survey and link this to administrative data contained in the Charity Commission register on the distribution of charities. We find that there is a positive relationship between the numbers of charities operating locally and the likelihood of volunteering. Other measures, however, including the distribution of charities operating either regionally or nationally, have no statistically significant effects. We find no relationship between a measure of the size of charities (the median expenditures of charities within local authorities) and the likelihood of volunteering. These findings are relevant beyond the UK to debates about the understanding of variations in voluntary action, and to discussions about the impact of the third sector upon communities