A heteroskedastic error covariance matrix estimator using a first-order conditional autoregressive Markov simulation for deriving asympotical efficient estimates from ecological sampled Anopheles arabiensis aquatic habitat covariates

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Autoregressive regression coefficients for <it>Anopheles arabiensis </it>aquatic habitat models are usually assessed using global error techniques and are reported as error covariance matrices. A global statistic, however, will summarize error estimates from multiple habitat locations. This makes it difficult to identify where there are clusters of <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitats of acceptable prediction. It is therefore useful to conduct some form of spatial error analysis to detect clusters of <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitats based on uncertainty residuals from individual sampled habitats. In this research, a method of error estimation for spatial simulation models was demonstrated using autocorrelation indices and eigenfunction spatial filters to distinguish among the effects of parameter uncertainty on a stochastic simulation of ecological sampled <it>Anopheles </it>aquatic habitat covariates. A test for diagnostic checking error residuals in an <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitat model may enable intervention efforts targeting productive habitats clusters, based on larval/pupal productivity, by using the asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates from a residual autocovariance matrix. The models considered in this research extends a normal regression analysis previously considered in the literature.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Field and remote-sampled data were collected during July 2006 to December 2007 in Karima rice-village complex in Mwea, Kenya. SAS 9.1.4^®was used to explore univariate statistics, correlations, distributions, and to generate global autocorrelation statistics from the ecological sampled datasets. A local autocorrelation index was also generated using spatial covariance parameters (i.e., Moran's Indices) in a SAS/GIS^®database. The Moran's statistic was decomposed into orthogonal and uncorrelated synthetic map pattern components using a Poisson model with a gamma-distributed mean (i.e. negative binomial regression). The eigenfunction values from the spatial configuration matrices were then used to define expectations for prior distributions using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. A set of posterior means were defined in WinBUGS 1.4.3^®. After the model had converged, samples from the conditional distributions were used to summarize the posterior distribution of the parameters. Thereafter, a spatial residual trend analyses was used to evaluate variance uncertainty propagation in the model using an autocovariance error matrix.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By specifying coefficient estimates in a Bayesian framework, the covariate number of tillers was found to be a significant predictor, positively associated with <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitats. The spatial filter models accounted for approximately 19% redundant locational information in the ecological sampled <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitat data. In the residual error estimation model there was significant positive autocorrelation (i.e., clustering of habitats in geographic space) based on log-transformed larval/pupal data and the sampled covariate depth of habitat.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>An autocorrelation error covariance matrix and a spatial filter analyses can prioritize mosquito control strategies by providing a computationally attractive and feasible description of variance uncertainty estimates for correctly identifying clusters of prolific <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitats based on larval/pupal productivity.</p

Visual art inspired by the collective feeding behavior of sand-bubbler crabs

Sand--bubblers are crabs of the genera Dotilla and Scopimera which are known to produce remarkable patterns and structures at tropical beaches. From these pattern-making abilities, we may draw inspiration for digital visual art. A simple mathematical model is proposed and an algorithm is designed that may create such sand-bubbler patterns artificially. In addition, design parameters to modify the patterns are identified and analyzed by computational aesthetic measures. Finally, an extension of the algorithm is discussed that may enable controlling and guiding generative evolution of the art-making process

Statistically validated networks in bipartite complex systems

Many complex systems present an intrinsic bipartite nature and are often described and modeled in terms of networks [1-5]. Examples include movies and actors [1, 2, 4], authors and scientific papers [6-9], email accounts and emails [10], plants and animals that pollinate them [11, 12]. Bipartite networks are often very heterogeneous in the number of relationships that the elements of one set establish with the elements of the other set. When one constructs a projected network with nodes from only one set, the system heterogeneity makes it very difficult to identify preferential links between the elements. Here we introduce an unsupervised method to statistically validate each link of the projected network against a null hypothesis taking into account the heterogeneity of the system. We apply our method to three different systems, namely the set of clusters of orthologous genes (COG) in completely sequenced genomes [13, 14], a set of daily returns of 500 US financial stocks, and the set of world movies of the IMDb database [15]. In all these systems, both different in size and level of heterogeneity, we find that our method is able to detect network structures which are informative about the system and are not simply expression of its heterogeneity. Specifically, our method (i) identifies the preferential relationships between the elements, (ii) naturally highlights the clustered structure of investigated systems, and (iii) allows to classify links according to the type of statistically validated relationships between the connected nodes.Comment: Main text: 13 pages, 3 figures, and 1 Table. Supplementary information: 15 pages, 3 figures, and 2 Table

Sex differences in mathematics and reading achievement are inversely related: within- and across-nation assessment of 10 years of PISA data

We analyzed one decade of data collected by the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), including the mathematics and reading performance of nearly 1.5 million 15 year olds in 75 countries. Across nations, boys scored higher than girls in mathematics, but lower than girls in reading. The sex difference in reading was three times as large as in mathematics. There was considerable variation in the extent of the sex differences between nations. There are countries without a sex difference in mathematics performance, and in some countries girls scored higher than boys. Boys scored lower in reading in all nations in all four PISA assessments (2000, 2003, 2006, 2009). Contrary to several previous studies, we found no evidence that the sex differences were related to nations’ gender equality indicators. Further, paradoxically, sex differences in mathematics were consistently and strongly inversely correlated with sex differences in reading: Countries with a smaller sex difference in mathematics had a larger sex difference in reading and vice versa. We demonstrate that this was not merely a between-nation, but also a within-nation effect. This effect is related to relative changes in these sex differences across the performance continuum: We did not find a sex difference in mathematics among the lowest performing students, but this is where the sex difference in reading was largest. In contrast, the sex difference in mathematics was largest among the higher performing students, and this is where the sex difference in reading was smallest. The implication is that if policy makers decide that changes in these sex differences are desired, different approaches will be needed to achieve this for reading and mathematics. Interventions that focus on high-achieving girls in mathematics and on low achieving boys in reading are likely to yield the strongest educational benefits

Should patients with abnormal liver function tests in primary care be tested for chronic viral hepatitis: cost minimisation analysis based on a comprehensively tested cohort

Background Liver function tests (LFTs) are ordered in large numbers in primary care, and the Birmingham and Lambeth Liver Evaluation Testing Strategies (BALLETS) study was set up to assess their usefulness in patients with no pre-existing or self-evident liver disease. All patients were tested for chronic viral hepatitis thereby providing an opportunity to compare various strategies for detection of this serious treatable disease. Methods This study uses data from the BALLETS cohort to compare various testing strategies for viral hepatitis in patients who had received an abnormal LFT result. The aim was to inform a strategy for identification of patients with chronic viral hepatitis. We used a cost-minimisation analysis to define a base case and then calculated the incremental cost per case detected to inform a strategy that could guide testing for chronic viral hepatitis. Results Of the 1,236 study patients with an abnormal LFT, 13 had chronic viral hepatitis (nine hepatitis B and four hepatitis C). The strategy advocated by the current guidelines (repeating the LFT with a view to testing for specific disease if it remained abnormal) was less efficient (more expensive per case detected) than a simple policy of testing all patients for viral hepatitis without repeating LFTs. A more selective strategy of viral testing all patients for viral hepatitis if they were born in countries where viral hepatitis was prevalent provided high efficiency with little loss of sensitivity. A notably high alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level (greater than twice the upper limit of normal) on the initial ALT test had high predictive value, but was insensitive, missing half the cases of viral infection. Conclusions Based on this analysis and on widely accepted clinical principles, a "fast and frugal" heuristic was produced to guide general practitioners with respect to diagnosing cases of viral hepatitis in asymptomatic patients with abnormal LFTs. It recommends testing all patients where a clear clinical indication of infection is present (e.g. evidence of intravenous drug use), followed by testing all patients who originated from countries where viral hepatitis is prevalent, and finally testing those who have a notably raised ALT level (more than twice the upper limit of normal). Patients not picked up by this efficient algorithm had a risk of chronic viral hepatitis that is lower than the general population

Exploring local knowledge and perceptions on zoonoses among pastoralists in northern and eastern Tanzania

Background: Zoonoses account for the most commonly reported emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, there is limited knowledge on how pastoral communities perceive zoonoses in relation to their livelihoods, culture and their wider ecology. This study was carried out to explore local knowledge and perceptions on zoonoses among pastoralists in Tanzania. Methodology and principal findings: This study involved pastoralists in Ngorongoro district in northern Tanzania and Kibaha and Bagamoyo districts in eastern Tanzania. Qualitative methods of focus group discussions, participatory epidemiology and interviews were used. A total of 223 people were involved in the study. Among the pastoralists, there was no specific term in their local language that describes zoonosis. Pastoralists from northern Tanzania possessed a higher understanding on the existence of a number of zoonoses than their eastern districts' counterparts. Understanding of zoonoses could be categorized into two broad groups: a local syndromic framework, whereby specific symptoms of a particular illness in humans concurred with symptoms in animals, and the biomedical framework, where a case definition is supported by diagnostic tests. Some pastoralists understand the possibility of some infections that could cross over to humans from animals but harm from these are generally tolerated and are not considered as threats. A number of social and cultural practices aimed at maintaining specific cultural functions including social cohesion and rites of passage involve animal products, which present zoonotic risk. Conclusions: These findings show how zoonoses are locally understood, and how epidemiology and biomedicine are shaping pastoralists perceptions to zoonoses. Evidence is needed to understand better the true burden and impact of zoonoses in these communities. More studies are needed that seek to clarify the common understanding of zoonoses that could be used to guide effective and locally relevant interventions. Such studies should consider in their approaches the pastoralists' wider social, cultural and economic set up

Human epididymis protein 4 reference limits and natural variation in a Nordic reference population

The objectives of this study are to establish reference limits for human epididymis protein 4, HE4, and investigate factors influencing HE4 levels in healthy subjects. HE4 was measured in 1,591 samples from the Nordic Reference Interval Project Bio-bank and Database biobank, using the manual HE4 EIA (Fujirebio) for 802 samples and the Architect HE4 (Abbott) for 792 samples. Reference limits were calculated using the statistical software R. The influence of donor characteristics such as age, sex, body mass index, smoking habits, and creatinine on HE4 levels was investigated using a multivariate model. The study showed that age is the main determinant of HE4 in healthy subjects, corresponding to 2% higher HE4 levels at 30 years (compared to 20 years), 9% at 40 years, 20% at 50 years, 37% at 60 years, 63% at 70 years, and 101% at 80 years. HE4 levels are 29% higher in smokers than in nonsmokers. In conclusion, HE4 levels in healthy subjects are associated with age and smoking status. Age-dependent reference limits are suggested

No contribution of GSTM1 and GSTT1 null genotypes to the risk of neutropenia due to benzene exposure in Southeastern Brazil

Exposure to benzene has been associated with haematological diseases such as neutropenia (NEB) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). We tested whether the null genotypes of the GSTM1 and GSTT1 genes, involved in benzene inactivation, altered the risk for NEB in southeastern Brazil. Genomic DNA from 55 NEB patients and 330 controls was analysed by multiplex-polymerase chain reaction. The frequency of the GSTM1, GSTT1 and combined null genotypes was similar in patients and controls (GSTM1, 27.3% vs. 38.8%, p = 0.16; GSTT1, 25.5% vs. 19.7%, p = 0.24; GSTM1/GSTT1, 12.7% vs. 6.7%, p = 0.26; respectively). The distribution of genotype classes in NEB patients was similar to normal controls, suggesting that GSTM1 and GSTT1 null genotypes make no specific contribution to the risk of NEB. As the GSTM1 and GSTT1 null genotypes were previously associated with increased risk for AML in Brazil and elsewhere, we hypothesise that different thresholds of chemical exposure relative to distinct GSTM1 and GSTT1 genotypes may determine whether AML or NEB manifests in benzene exposed individuals from southeastern Brazil. Although indicative, our results still require support by prospective and large scale epidemiological studies, with rigorous assessment of daily chemical exposures and control of the possible contribution of other polymorphic genes involved in benzene metabolism

Quantum physics in inertial and gravitational fields

Covariant generalizations of well-known wave equations predict the existence of inertial-gravitational effects for a variety of quantum systems that range from Bose-Einstein condensates to particles in accelerators. Additional effects arise in models that incorporate Born reciprocity principle and the notion of a maximal acceleration. Some specific examples are discussed in detail.Comment: 25 pages,1 figure,to appear in "Relativity in Rotating Frame

MRI of the lung (3/3)-current applications and future perspectives

BACKGROUND: MRI of the lung is recommended in a number of clinical indications. Having a non-radiation alternative is particularly attractive in children and young subjects, or pregnant women. METHODS: Provided there is sufficient expertise, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may be considered as the preferential modality in specific clinical conditions such as cystic fibrosis and acute pulmonary embolism, since additional functional information on respiratory mechanics and regional lung perfusion is provided. In other cases, such as tumours and pneumonia in children, lung MRI may be considered an alternative or adjunct to other modalities with at least similar diagnostic value. RESULTS: In interstitial lung disease, the clinical utility of MRI remains to be proven, but it could provide additional information that will be beneficial in research, or at some stage in clinical practice. Customised protocols for chest imaging combine fast breath-hold acquisitions from a "buffet" of sequences. Having introduced details of imaging protocols in previous articles, the aim of this manuscript is to discuss the advantages and limitations of lung MRI in current clinical practice. CONCLUSION: New developments and future perspectives such as motion-compensated imaging with self-navigated sequences or fast Fourier decomposition MRI for non-contrast enhanced ventilation- and perfusion-weighted imaging of the lung are discussed. Main Messages • MRI evolves as a third lung imaging modality, combining morphological and functional information. • It may be considered first choice in cystic fibrosis and pulmonary embolism of young and pregnant patients. • In other cases (tumours, pneumonia in children), it is an alternative or adjunct to X-ray and CT. • In interstitial lung disease, it serves for research, but the clinical value remains to be proven. • New users are advised to make themselves familiar with the particular advantages and limitations