Decision Making for Inconsistent Expert Judgments Using Negative Probabilities

In this paper we provide a simple random-variable example of inconsistent information, and analyze it using three different approaches: Bayesian, quantum-like, and negative probabilities. We then show that, at least for this particular example, both the Bayesian and the quantum-like approaches have less normative power than the negative probabilities one.Comment: 14 pages, revised version to appear in the Proceedings of the QI2013 (Quantum Interactions) conferenc

Association between the c.*229C>T polymorphism of the topoisomerase IIb binding protein 1 (TopBP1) gene and breast cancer

Topoisomerase IIb binding protein 1 (TopBP1) is involved in cell survival, DNA replication, DNA damage repair and cell cycle checkpoint control. The biological function of TopBP1 and its close relation with BRCA1 prompted us to investigate whether alterations in the TopBP1 gene can influence the risk of breast cancer. The aim of this study was to examine the association between five polymorphisms (rs185903567, rs116645643, rs115160714, rs116195487, and rs112843513) located in the 30UTR region of the TopBP1 gene and breast cancer risk as well as allele-specific gene expression. Five hundred thirty-four breast cancer patients and 556 population controls were genotyped for these SNPs. Allele-specific Top- BP1 mRNA and protein expressions were determined by using real time PCR and western blotting methods, respectively. Only one SNP (rs115160714) showed an association with breast cancer. Compared to homozygous common allele carriers, heterozygous and homozygous for the T variant had significantly increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 3.81, 95 % confidence interval: 1.63–8.34, p = 0.001). Mean TopBP1 mRNA and protein expression were higher in the individuals with the CT or TT genotype. There was a significant association between the rs115160714 and tumor grade and stage. Most carriers of minor allele had a high grade (G3) tumors classified as T2-T4N1M0. Our study raises a possibility that a genetic variation of TopBP1 may be implicated in the etiology of breast cancer

An international randomised controlled trial to compare targeted intra-operative radiotherapy (TARGIT) with conventional post-operative radiotherapy after conservative breast surgery for women with early stage breast cancer (The TARGIT-A trial)

BACKGROUND: Based on our laboratory work and clinical trials we hypothesised that radiotherapy after lumpectomy for breast cancer could be restricted to the tumour bed. In collaboration with the industry we developed a new radiotherapy device and a new surgical operation for delivering single-dose radiation to the tumour bed - the tissues at highest risk of local recurrence. We named it TARGeted Intraoperative radioTherapy (TARGIT). From 1998 we confirmed its feasibility and safety in pilot studies. OBJECTIVE: To compare TARGIT within a risk-adapted approach with whole breast external beam radiotherapy over several weeks (EBRT). DESIGN AND SETTING: The TARGIT-A trial was a pragmatic, prospective, international, multicenter, non-inferiority, non-blinded, randomised (1:1 ratio), clinical trial from 33 centres in 11 countries. Originally, randomisation occurred before initial lumpectomy (prepathology) and if allocated TARGIT, the patient received it during the lumpectomy. Subsequently, the postpathology stratum was added, in which randomisation occurred after initial lumpectomy, allowing potentially easier logistics and a more stringent case selection, but needed a reoperation to reopen the wound to give TARGIT as delayed procedure. Risk-adapted approach meant that in the experimental arm, if pre-specified unsuspected adverse factors were found postoperatively after receiving TARGIT, then EBRT was recommended. Pragmatically, this reflected how TARGIT would be practiced in the real world. PARTICIPANTS: Women who were >=45 years of age with unifocal invasive ductal carcinoma preferably <= 3.5cm in size; 3451 patients were recruited between March 2000 and June 2012. OUTCOMES: Primary: absolute difference in local recurrence, with a non-inferiority margin of 2.5%. Secondary: included toxicity, breast cancer specific and non-breast-cancer mortality. RESULTS: Values below are 5-year Kaplan-Meier rates for TARGIT vs. EBRT. There was no statistically significant difference in local recurrence between TARGIT and EBRT. TARGIT was non-inferior to EBRT overall (3·3%(2·1–5·1) vs. 1·3%(0·7–2·5),p=0.04,Pnoninferiority =0.00000012) and in the prepathology stratum(n=2298) when TARGIT was given concurrently with lumpectomy(2·1%(1·1–4·2) vs. 1·1%(0·5–2·5),p=0.31,Pnoninferiority =0.0000000013). With delayed TARGIT postpathology,(n=1153) the between-group difference was larger than 2·5% and non-inferiority was not established for this stratum((5·4%(3·0–9·7) vs. 1·7%(0·6–4·9),p=0.069,Pnoninferiority= 0.06640). The local-recurrence-free survival when TARGIT was given with lumpectomy was 93.9%(95%CI 90.9 – 95.9) vs. EBRT: 92.5%(95%CI 89.7 – 94.6),p=0.35. In a planned subgroup analysis, progesterone (PgR) receptor status was found to be the only predictor of outcome - hormone responsive patients (PgRpositive) had similar 5-year local recurrence with TARGIT during lumpectomy 1.4%(0.5-3.9) vs. EBRT 1.2%(0.5-2.9),p=0.77. Grade 3 or 4 radiotherapy toxicity was significantly reduced with TARGIT. Overall, breast cancer mortality was much the same between groups (2·6%[1·5–4·3] vs. 1·9%[1·1–3·2];p=0·56) but there were significantly fewer non-breast-cancer deaths with TARGIT (1·4% [0·8–2·5] vs 3·5%[2·3–5·2];p=0·0086), attributable to fewer deaths from cardiovascular causes and other cancers, leading to a trend in reduced overall mortality in the TARGIT arm 37 deaths, 3·9%(2·7–5·8) vs. 51 deaths, 5·3%(3·9–7·3),p=0.099). Health economic analyses suggest that TARGIT was statistically significantly less costly than EBRT, produced similar QALYs, had a positive incremental Net Monetary Benefit that was borderline statistically significant from zero, and had a probability of over 90% of being cost-effective. There appears to be little uncertainty in the point estimates, based on deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. If TARGIT were given instead of EBRT in suitable patients, it might potentially reduce costs to the health care providers by £8 million to £9.1 million each year. This does not include environmental, patient and societal costs. LIMITATIONS: The number of local recurrences is small however, the number of events for local-recurrence-free survival is not small (59 vs. 61); Occurrence of only a few events implies that the treatments are effective and any difference is unlikely to be large. The follow up not all 3451 patients is 5 years, although the number required to answer the main trial question (n=585) have more than 5 years follow up. FUTURE WORK: We shall repeat the analyses with longer follow up. Although this may not change the primary result, the larger number of events may confirm the effect on mortality and allow more detailed subgroup analyses. The TARGIT-B trial is testing whether TARGIT-Boost is superior to EBRT boost. CONCLUSION: For patients with breast cancer (women who are 45 years of age and older with hormone sensitive invasive ductal carcinoma that is up to 3.5cm in size), TARGIT concurrent with lumpectomy within a risk-adapted approach is as effective, safer and less expensive alternative to postoperative EBRT. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN34086741, ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00983684

Temporal trends in mode, site and stage of presentation with the introduction of colorectal cancer screening: a decade of experience from the West of Scotland

background:  Population colorectal cancer screening programmes have been introduced to reduce cancer-specific mortality through the detection of early-stage disease. The present study aimed to examine the impact of screening introduction in the West of Scotland. methods:  Data on all patients with a diagnosis of colorectal cancer between January 2003 and December 2012 were extracted from a prospectively maintained regional audit database. Changes in mode, site and stage of presentation before, during and after screening introduction were examined. results:  In a population of 2.4 million, over a 10-year period, 14 487 incident cases of colorectal cancer were noted. Of these, 7827 (54%) were males and 7727 (53%) were socioeconomically deprived. In the postscreening era, 18% were diagnosed via the screening programme. There was a reduction in both emergency presentation (20% prescreening vs 13% postscreening, P0.001) and the proportion of rectal cancers (34% prescreening vs 31% pos-screening, P0.001) over the timeframe. Within non-metastatic disease, an increase in the proportion of stage I tumours at diagnosis was noted (17% prescreening vs 28% postscreening, P0.001). conclusions:  Within non-metastatic disease, a shift towards earlier stage at diagnosis has accompanied the introduction of a national screening programme. Such a change should lead to improved outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer

Dynamics of trimming the content of face representations for categorization in the brain

To understand visual cognition, it is imperative to determine when, how and with what information the human brain categorizes the visual input. Visual categorization consistently involves at least an early and a late stage: the occipito-temporal N170 event related potential related to stimulus encoding and the parietal P300 involved in perceptual decisions. Here we sought to understand how the brain globally transforms its representations of face categories from their early encoding to the later decision stage over the 400 ms time window encompassing the N170 and P300 brain events. We applied classification image techniques to the behavioral and electroencephalographic data of three observers who categorized seven facial expressions of emotion and report two main findings: (1) Over the 400 ms time course, processing of facial features initially spreads bilaterally across the left and right occipito-temporal regions to dynamically converge onto the centro-parietal region; (2) Concurrently, information processing gradually shifts from encoding common face features across all spatial scales (e.g. the eyes) to representing only the finer scales of the diagnostic features that are richer in useful information for behavior (e.g. the wide opened eyes in 'fear'; the detailed mouth in 'happy'). Our findings suggest that the brain refines its diagnostic representations of visual categories over the first 400 ms of processing by trimming a thorough encoding of features over the N170, to leave only the detailed information important for perceptual decisions over the P300

Modulation of emotional appraisal by false physiological feedback during fMRI

BACKGROUND James and Lange proposed that emotions are the perception of physiological reactions. Two-level theories of emotion extend this model to suggest that cognitive interpretations of physiological changes shape self-reported emotions. Correspondingly false physiological feedback of evoked or tonic bodily responses can alter emotional attributions. Moreover, anxiety states are proposed to arise from detection of mismatch between actual and anticipated states of physiological arousal. However, the neural underpinnings of these phenomena previously have not been examined. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We undertook a functional brain imaging (fMRI) experiment to investigate how both primary and second-order levels of physiological (viscerosensory) representation impact on the processing of external emotional cues. 12 participants were scanned while judging face stimuli during both exercise and non-exercise conditions in the context of true and false auditory feedback of tonic heart rate. We observed that the perceived emotional intensity/salience of neutral faces was enhanced by false feedback of increased heart rate. Regional changes in neural activity corresponding to this behavioural interaction were observed within included right anterior insula, bilateral mid insula, and amygdala. In addition, right anterior insula activity was enhanced during by asynchronous relative to synchronous cardiac feedback even with no change in perceived or actual heart rate suggesting this region serves as a comparator to detect physiological mismatches. Finally, BOLD activity within right anterior insula and amygdala predicted the corresponding changes in perceived intensity ratings at both a group and an individual level. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our findings identify the neural substrates supporting behavioural effects of false physiological feedback, and highlight mechanisms that underlie subjective anxiety states, including the importance of the right anterior insula in guiding second-order "cognitive" representations of bodily arousal state

Investigating and learning lessons from early experiences of implementing ePrescribing systems into NHS hospitals:a questionnaire study

Background: ePrescribing systems have significant potential to improve the safety and efficiency of healthcare, but they need to be carefully selected and implemented to maximise benefits. Implementations in English hospitals are in the early stages and there is a lack of standards guiding the procurement, functional specifications, and expected benefits. We sought to provide an updated overview of the current picture in relation to implementation of ePrescribing systems, explore existing strategies, and identify early lessons learned.Methods: a descriptive questionnaire-based study, which included closed and free text questions and involved both quantitative and qualitative analysis of the data generated.Results: we obtained responses from 85 of 108 NHS staff (78.7% response rate). At least 6% (n = 10) of the 168 English NHS Trusts have already implemented ePrescribing systems, 2% (n = 4) have no plans of implementing, and 34% (n = 55) are planning to implement with intended rapid implementation timelines driven by high expectations surrounding improved safety and efficiency of care. The majority are unclear as to which system to choose, but integration with existing systems and sophisticated decision support functionality are important decisive factors. Participants highlighted the need for increased guidance in relation to implementation strategy, system choice and standards, as well as the need for top-level management support to adequately resource the project. Although some early benefits were reported by hospitals that had already implemented, the hoped for benefits relating to improved efficiency and cost-savings remain elusive due to a lack of system maturity.Conclusions: whilst few have begun implementation, there is considerable interest in ePrescribing systems with ambitious timelines amongst those hospitals that are planning implementations. In order to ensure maximum chances of realising benefits, there is a need for increased guidance in relation to implementation strategy, system choice and standards, as well as increased financial resources to fund local activitie

Process evaluation for complex interventions in primary care: understanding trials using the normalization process model

Background: the Normalization Process Model is a conceptual tool intended to assist in understanding the factors that affect implementation processes in clinical trials and other evaluations of complex interventions. It focuses on the ways that the implementation of complex interventions is shaped by problems of workability and integration.Method: in this paper the model is applied to two different complex trials: (i) the delivery of problem solving therapies for psychosocial distress, and (ii) the delivery of nurse-led clinics for heart failure treatment in primary care.Results: application of the model shows how process evaluations need to focus on more than the immediate contexts in which trial outcomes are generated. Problems relating to intervention workability and integration also need to be understood. The model may be used effectively to explain the implementation process in trials of complex interventions.Conclusion: the model invites evaluators to attend equally to considering how a complex intervention interacts with existing patterns of service organization, professional practice, and professional-patient interaction. The justification for this may be found in the abundance of reports of clinical effectiveness for interventions that have little hope of being implemented in real healthcare setting

Recent developments of the Hierarchical Reference Theory of Fluids and its relation to the Renormalization Group

The Hierarchical Reference Theory (HRT) of fluids is a general framework for the description of phase transitions in microscopic models of classical and quantum statistical physics. The foundations of HRT are briefly reviewed in a self-consistent formulation which includes both the original sharp cut-off procedure and the smooth cut-off implementation, which has been recently investigated. The critical properties of HRT are summarized, together with the behavior of the theory at first order phase transitions. However, the emphasis of this presentation is on the close relationship between HRT and non perturbative renormalization group methods, as well as on recent generalizations of HRT to microscopic models of interest in soft matter and quantum many body physics.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures. Review paper to appear in Molecular Physic

Modulation of emotional appraisal by false physiological feedback during fMRI

BACKGROUND James and Lange proposed that emotions are the perception of physiological reactions. Two-level theories of emotion extend this model to suggest that cognitive interpretations of physiological changes shape self-reported emotions. Correspondingly false physiological feedback of evoked or tonic bodily responses can alter emotional attributions. Moreover, anxiety states are proposed to arise from detection of mismatch between actual and anticipated states of physiological arousal. However, the neural underpinnings of these phenomena previously have not been examined. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We undertook a functional brain imaging (fMRI) experiment to investigate how both primary and second-order levels of physiological (viscerosensory) representation impact on the processing of external emotional cues. 12 participants were scanned while judging face stimuli during both exercise and non-exercise conditions in the context of true and false auditory feedback of tonic heart rate. We observed that the perceived emotional intensity/salience of neutral faces was enhanced by false feedback of increased heart rate. Regional changes in neural activity corresponding to this behavioural interaction were observed within included right anterior insula, bilateral mid insula, and amygdala. In addition, right anterior insula activity was enhanced during by asynchronous relative to synchronous cardiac feedback even with no change in perceived or actual heart rate suggesting this region serves as a comparator to detect physiological mismatches. Finally, BOLD activity within right anterior insula and amygdala predicted the corresponding changes in perceived intensity ratings at both a group and an individual level. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our findings identify the neural substrates supporting behavioural effects of false physiological feedback, and highlight mechanisms that underlie subjective anxiety states, including the importance of the right anterior insula in guiding second-order "cognitive" representations of bodily arousal state