Prediction of Dengue Incidence Using Search Query Surveillance

Improvements in surveillance, prediction of outbreaks and the monitoring of the epidemiology of dengue virus in countries with underdeveloped surveillance systems are of great importance to ministries of health and other public health decision makers who are often constrained by budget or man-power. Google Flu Trends has proven successful in providing an early warning system for outbreaks of influenza weeks before case data are reported. We believe that there is greater potential for this technique for dengue, as the incidence of this pathogen can vary by a factor of ten in some settings, making prediction all the more important in public health planning. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of Google search terms in predicting dengue incidence in Singapore and Bangkok, Thailand using several regression techniques. Incidence data were provided by the Singapore Ministry of Health and the Thailand Bureau of Epidemiology. We find our models predict incident cases well (correlation greater than 0.8) and periods of high incidence equally well (AUC greater than 0.95). All data and analysis code used in our study are available free online and can be adapted to other settings

Protecting eyewitness evidence: Examining the efficacy of a self-administered interview tool

Given the crucial role of eyewitness evidence, statements should be obtained as soon as possible after an incident. This is not always achieved due to demands on police resources. Two studies trace the development of a new tool, the Self-Administered Interview (SAI), designed to elicit a comprehensive initial statement. In Study 1, SAI participants reported more correct details than participants who provided a free recall account, and performed at the same level as participants given a Cognitive Interview. In Study 2, participants viewed a simulated crime and half recorded their statement using the SAI. After a delay of 1 week, all participants completed a free recall test. SAI participants recalled more correct details in the delayed recall task than control participants

Using Search Query Surveillance to Monitor Tax Avoidance and Smoking Cessation following the United States' 2009 “SCHIP” Cigarette Tax Increase

Smokers can use the web to continue or quit their habit. Online vendors sell reduced or tax-free cigarettes lowering smoking costs, while health advocates use the web to promote cessation. We examined how smokers' tax avoidance and smoking cessation Internet search queries were motivated by the United States' (US) 2009 State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) federal cigarette excise tax increase and two other state specific tax increases. Google keyword searches among residents in a taxed geography (US or US state) were compared to an untaxed geography (Canada) for two years around each tax increase. Search data were normalized to a relative search volume (RSV) scale, where the highest search proportion was labeled 100 with lesser proportions scaled by how they relatively compared to the highest proportion. Changes in RSV were estimated by comparing means during and after the tax increase to means before the tax increase, across taxed and untaxed geographies. The SCHIP tax was associated with an 11.8% (95% confidence interval [95%CI], 5.7 to 17.9; p<.001) immediate increase in cessation searches; however, searches quickly abated and approximated differences from pre-tax levels in Canada during the months after the tax. Tax avoidance searches increased 27.9% (95%CI, 15.9 to 39.9; p<.001) and 5.3% (95%CI, 3.6 to 7.1; p<.001) during and in the months after the tax compared to Canada, respectively, suggesting avoidance is the more pronounced and durable response. Trends were similar for state-specific tax increases but suggest strong interactive processes across taxes. When the SCHIP tax followed Florida's tax, versus not, it promoted more cessation and avoidance searches. Efforts to combat tax avoidance and increase cessation may be enhanced by using interventions targeted and tailored to smokers' searches. Search query surveillance is a valuable real-time, free and public method, that may be generalized to other behavioral, biological, informational or psychological outcomes manifested online

Language barrier and its relationship to diabetes and diabetic retinopathy

10.1186/1471-2458-12-781BMC Public Health121

Short- and long-term effects of a quality improvement collaborative on diabetes management

Introduction: This study examined the short- and long-term effects of a quality improvement collaborative on patient outcomes, professional performance, and structural aspects of chronic care management of type 2 diabetes in an integrated care setting.Methods: Controlled pre- and post-intervention study assessing patient outcomes (hemoglobin A1c, cholesterol, blood pressure, weight, blood lipid levels, and smoking status), professional performance (guideline adherence), and structural aspects of chronic care management from baseline up to 24 months. Analyses were based on 1,861 patients with diabetes in six intervention and nine control regions representing 37 general practices and 13 outpatient clinics.Results: Modest but significant improvement was seen in mean systolic blood pressure (decrease by 4.0 mm Hg versus 1.6 mm Hg) and mean high density lipoprotein levels (increase by 0.12 versus 0.03 points) at two-year follow up. Positive but insignificant differences were found in hemoglobin A1c (0.3%), cholesterol, and blood lipid levels. The intervention group showed significant improvement in the percentage of patients receiving advice and instruction to examine feet, and smaller reductions in the percentage of patients receiving instruction to monitor blood glucose and visiting a dietician annually. Structural aspects of self-management and decision support also improved significantly.Conclusions: At a time of heightened national attention toward diabetes care, our results demonstrate a modest benefit of participation in a multi-institutional quality improvement collaborative focusing on integrated, patient-centered care. The effects persisted for at least 12 months after the intervention was completed.Trial number: http://clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT 00160017

Placental transfusion: a review

Recently there have been a number of studies and presentations on the importance of providing a placental transfusion to the newborn. Early cord clamping is an avoidable, unphysiologic intervention that prevents the natural process of placental transfusion. However, placental transfusion, although simple in concept, is affected by multiple factors, is not always straightforward to implement, and can be performed using different methods, making this basic procedure important to discuss. Here, we review three placental transfusion techniques: delayed cord clamping, intact umbilical cord milking and cut-umbilical cord milking, and the evidence in term and preterm newborns supporting this practice. We will also review several factors that influence placental transfusion, and discuss perceived risks versus benefits of this procedure. Finally, we will provide key straightforward concepts and implementation strategies to ensure that placental-to-newborn transfusion can become routine practice at any institution

Bacillus thuringiensis Cry5B Protein Is Highly Efficacious as a Single-Dose Therapy against an Intestinal Roundworm Infection in Mice

Intestinal parasitic nematode diseases infect over one billion people and cause significant disease burden in children (growth and cognitive stunting, malnutrition), in pregnant women, and via their dampening of the immune system in infected individuals. In over thirty years, no new classes of anti-roundworm drugs (anthelmintics) for treating humans have been developed. Because of limitations of the current drugs and the threat of parasite resistance, new anthelmintics are needed. The soil bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) produces crystal (Cry) proteins that specifically target and kill insects and nematodes and is used around the world as a safe insecticide. Here we test the effects of the Bt Cry protein Cry5B on a chronic, natural intestinal roundworm infection in mice, namely the helminth parasite Heligmosomoides bakeri. We find that a single dose of Cry5B can eliminate 70% of the parasites and can almost completely block the ability of the parasites to produce progeny. Comparisons of Cry5B's efficacy with known anthelmintics suggest its activity is as good as or perhaps even better than those currently used. Furthermore, this protein is rapidly digested by simulated stomach juices, suggesting that protecting it from these juices would reveal a superior anthelmintic

Effect of training-sample size and classification difficulty on the accuracy of genomic predictors

Introduction: As part of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II project, this analysis examines how the choice of univariate feature-selection methods and classification algorithms may influence the performance of genomic predictors under varying degrees of prediction difficulty represented by three clinically relevant endpoints. Methods: We used gene-expression data from 230 breast cancers (grouped into training and independent validation sets), and we examined 40 predictors (five univariate feature-selection methods combined with eight different classifiers) for each of the three endpoints. Their classification performance was estimated on the training set by using two different resampling methods and compared with the accuracy observed in the independent validation set. Results: A ranking of the three classification problems was obtained, and the performance of 120 models was estimated and assessed on an independent validation set. The bootstrapping estimates were closer to the validation performance than were the cross-validation estimates. The required sample size for each endpoint was estimated, and both gene-level and pathway-level analyses were performed on the obtained models. Conclusions: We showed that genomic predictor accuracy is determined largely by an interplay between sample size and classification difficulty. Variations on univariate feature-selection methods and choice of classification algorithm have only a modest impact on predictor performance, and several statistically equally good predictors can be developed for any given classification problem

Understanding emotionally relevant situations in primary dental practice. 2. Reported effects of emotionally charged situations

Background and aims. Dentistry is widely reported to be a stressful profession. There is a limited body of research relating to the coping strategies used by dentists whilst in clinical situations. This study aims to use qualitative methods to explore the full extent of the coping strategies associated with stressful events in primary dental practice. Method. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 dentists within a 50 mile radius of Lincoln. A thematic analysis was conducted on verbatim transcriptions thereby identifying six themes and 35 codes. Results. Participants described both problem-focused and emotion-focused strategies. The strategies used had a variety of outcomes in the context of use. Most dentists denied that their emotions affected their decision-making, but then proceeded to describe how they were influential. Discussion and conclusion. Dentists use a wide variety of coping strategies some of which are maladaptive. Training in the development and recognition of appropriate coping decisions would be appropriate as they woul