Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks.

BackgroundIn many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome.MethodsWe develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard.ResultsThe proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care.ConclusionsA valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived

Second malignancies in the context of lenalidomide treatment: an analysis of 2732 myeloma patients enrolled to the Myeloma XI trial.

We have carried out the largest randomised trial to date of newly diagnosed myeloma patients, in which lenalidomide has been used as an induction and maintenance treatment option and here report its impact on second primary malignancy (SPM) incidence and pathology. After review, 104 SPMs were confirmed in 96 of 2732 trial patients. The cumulative incidence of SPM was 0.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4-1.0%), 2.3% (95% CI 1.6-2.7%) and 3.8% (95% CI 2.9-4.6%) at 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively. Patients receiving maintenance lenalidomide had a significantly higher SPM incidence overall (P=0.011). Age is a risk factor with the highest SPM incidence observed in transplant non-eligible patients aged >74 years receiving lenalidomide maintenance. The 3-year cumulative incidence in this group was 17.3% (95% CI 8.2-26.4%), compared with 6.5% (95% CI 0.2-12.9%) in observation only patients (P=0.049). There was a low overall incidence of haematological SPM (0.5%). The higher SPM incidence in patients receiving lenalidomide maintenance therapy, especially in advanced age, warrants ongoing monitoring although the benefit on survival is likely to outweigh risk

Severity Assessment of Lower Respiratory Tract Infection in Malawi: Derivation of a Novel Index (SWAT-Bp) Which Outperforms CRB-65

OBJECTIVE: To assess the validity of CRB-65 (Confusion, Respiratory rate >30 breaths/min, BP<90/60 mmHg, age >65 years) as a pneumonia severity index in a Malawian hospital population, and determine whether an alternative score has greater accuracy in this setting. DESIGN: Forty three variables were prospectively recorded during the first 48 hours of admission in all patients admitted to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Malawi, for management of lower respiratory tract infection over a two month period (N = 240). Calculation of sensitivity and specificity for CRB-65 in predicting mortality was followed by multivariate modeling to create a score with superior performance in this population. RESULTS: Median age 37, HIV prevalence 79.9%, overall mortality 18.3%. CRB-65 predicted mortality poorly, indicated by the area under the ROC curve of 0.649. Independent predictors of death were: Male sex, “S” (AOR 2.6); Wasting, “W” (AOR 6.6); non-ambulatory, “A” (AOR 2.5); Temp >38°C or <35°C, “T” (AOR 3.2); BP<100/60, “Bp” (AOR 3.7). Combining these factors to form a severity index (SWAT-Bp) predicted mortality with high sensitivity and specificity (AUC: 0.867). Mortality for scores 0–5 was 0%, 3.3%, 7.4%, 29.2%, 61.5% and 87.5% respectively. A score ≥3 was 84% sensitive and 77% specific for mortality prediction, with a negative predictive value of 95.8%. CONCLUSION: CRB-65 performs poorly in this population. The SWAT-Bp score can accurately stratify patients; ≤2 indicates non-severe infection (mortality 4.4%) and ≥3 severe illness (mortality 45%)

Conversion of Amides into Esters by the Nickel-Catalyzed Activation of Amide C-N Bonds

The amide function is ubiquitous in natural compounds as well as in man-made molecules and materials. It is generally very stable and poorly reactive owing to its resonance-stabilized C–N group that imparts a planar geometry to amides. In contrast, carboxylic esters are generally reactive under a variety of mild conditions; therefore, it is not surprising that a number of direct methods are available to the chemist for converting esters into amides (amino-de-alkoxylation reaction) but very few for achieving the opposite transformation. Recently, Professors Neil Garg and Ken Houk from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA, USA) reported in Nature a groundbreaking method for converting amides into esters with a high degree of efficiency

Ecological implications of a flower size/number trade-off in tropical forest trees

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Boundary work: An interpretive ethnographic perspective on negotiating and leveraging cross-cultural identity

The complexity of global organizations highlights the importance of members’ ability to span diverse boundaries that may be defined by organization structures, national borders, and/or a variety of cultures associated with organization, nation-based societal and work cultures, industries, and/or professions. Based on ethnographic research in a Japan–US binational firm, the paper describes and analyzes the boundary role performance of the firm\u27s Japanese members. It contributes toward theory on boundary spanning by introducing a “cultural identity negotiation” conceptual framework. We show boundary spanning as a process shaped through the interplay of the contextual issues that make a boundary problematic; an individual\u27s multiple repertoires of cultural knowledge; and the individual boundary spanner\u27s “negotiation”, through interaction with others, of his/her cultural identities – the sense of “who I am” as a cultural being that is fundamental to an individual\u27s self-concept. At the same time, we make transparent the epistemological and methodological foundations of an interpretive ethnographic approach, demonstrating its value for understanding complex organizational processes. Research findings have practical implications for the selection and training of an organization\u27s employees, particularly of persons who may be considered “bicultural”

Azimuthal anisotropy and correlations at large transverse momenta in p+pp+p and Au+Au collisions at sNN\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}= 200 GeV

Results on high transverse momentum charged particle emission with respect to the reaction plane are presented for Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}$= 200 GeV. Two- and four-particle correlations results are presented as well as a comparison of azimuthal correlations in Au+Au collisions to those in $p+p$ at the same energy. Elliptic anisotropy, $v_2$, is found to reach its maximum at $p_t \sim 3$ GeV/c, then decrease slowly and remain significant up to $p_t\approx 7$ -- 10 GeV/c. Stronger suppression is found in the back-to-back high-$p_t$ particle correlations for particles emitted out-of-plane compared to those emitted in-plane. The centrality dependence of $v_2$ at intermediate $p_t$ is compared to simple models based on jet quenching.Comment: 4 figures. Published version as PRL 93, 252301 (2004

Azimuthal anisotropy in Au+Au collisions at sqrtsNN = 200 GeV

The results from the STAR Collaboration on directed flow (v_1), elliptic flow (v_2), and the fourth harmonic (v_4) in the anisotropic azimuthal distribution of particles from Au+Au collisions at sqrtsNN = 200 GeV are summarized and compared with results from other experiments and theoretical models. Results for identified particles are presented and fit with a Blast Wave model. Different anisotropic flow analysis methods are compared and nonflow effects are extracted from the data. For v_2, scaling with the number of constituent quarks and parton coalescence is discussed. For v_4, scaling with v_2^2 and quark coalescence is discussed.Comment: 26 pages. As accepted by Phys. Rev. C. Text rearranged, figures modified, but data the same. However, in Fig. 35 the hydro calculations are corrected in this version. The data tables are available at http://www.star.bnl.gov/central/publications/ by searching for "flow" and then this pape

Results of NOPHO ALL2008 treatment for patients aged 1-45 years with acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) do worse than children. From 7/2008 to 12/2014, Nordic and Baltic centers treated 1509 consecutive patients aged 1-45 years with Philadelphia chromosome-negative ALL according to the NOPHO ALL2008 without cranial irradiation. Overall, 1022 patients were of age 1-9 years (A), 266 were 10-17 years (B) and 221 were 18-45 years (C). Sixteen patients (three adults) died during induction. All others achieved remission after induction or 1-3 intensive blocks. Subsequently, 45 patients (12 adults) died, 122 patients relapsed (32 adults) with a median time to relapse of 1.6 years and 13 (no adult) developed a second malignancy. Median follow-up time was 4.6 years. Among the three age groups, older patients more often had higher risk ALL due to T-ALL (32%/25%/9%, PPeer reviewe

Lp-PLA2 activity is associated with increased risk of diabetic retinopathy:a longitudinal disease progression study

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of the study was to examine the association between lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) activity levels and incident diabetic retinopathy and change in retinopathy grade.Methods: This was a cohort study of diabetic participants with serum collected at baseline and routinely collected diabetic retinal screening data. Participants with type 2 diabetes from the GoDARTS (Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland) cohort were used. This cohort is composed of individuals of white Scottish ancestry from the Tayside region of Scotland. Survival analysis accounting for informative censoring by modelling death as a competing risk was performed for the development of incident diabetic retinopathy from a disease-free state in a 3 year follow-up period (n = 1364) by stratified LpPLA2 activity levels (in quartiles). The same analysis was performed for transitions to more severe grades.Results: The hazard of developing incident diabetic retinopathy was 2.08 times higher (95% CI 1.64, 2.63) for the highest quartile of Lp-PLA2 activity compared with the lowest. Higher Lp-PLA2 activity levels were associated with a significantly increased risk for transitions to all grades. The hazards of developing observable (or more severe) and referable (or more severe) retinopathy were 2.82 (95% CI 1.71, 4.65) and 1.87 (95% CI 1.26, 2.77) times higher for the highest quartile of Lp-PLA2 activity compared with the lowest, respectively.Conclusions/interpretation: Higher Lp-PLA2 levels are associated with increased risk of death and the development of incident diabetic retinopathy, as well as transitions to more severe grades of diabetic retinopathy. These associations are independent of calculated LDL-cholesterol and other traditional risk factors. Further, this biomarker study shows that the association is temporally sensitive to the proximity of the event to measurement of Lp-PLA2