Dose–responses from multi-model inference for the non-cancer disease mortality of atomic bomb survivors

The non-cancer mortality data for cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and cardiovascular diseases from Report 13 on the atomic bomb survivors published by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation were analysed to investigate the dose–response for the influence of radiation on these detrimental health effects. Various parametric and categorical models (such as linear-no-threshold (LNT) and a number of threshold and step models) were analysed with a statistical selection protocol that rated the model description of the data. Instead of applying the usual approach of identifying one preferred model for each data set, a set of plausible models was applied, and a sub-set of non-nested models was identified that all fitted the data about equally well. Subsequently, this sub-set of non-nested models was used to perform multi-model inference (MMI), an innovative method of mathematically combining different models to allow risk estimates to be based on several plausible dose–response models rather than just relying on a single model of choice. This procedure thereby produces more reliable risk estimates based on a more comprehensive appraisal of model uncertainties. For CVD, MMI yielded a weak dose–response (with a risk estimate of about one-third of the LNT model) below a step at 0.6 Gy and a stronger dose–response at higher doses. The calculated risk estimates are consistent with zero risk below this threshold-dose. For mortalities related to cardiovascular diseases, an LNT-type dose–response was found with risk estimates consistent with zero risk below 2.2 Gy based on 90% confidence intervals. The MMI approach described here resolves a dilemma in practical radiation protection when one is forced to select between models with profoundly different dose–responses for risk estimates

Parallel Evolution of Auditory Genes for Echolocation in Bats and Toothed Whales

The ability of bats and toothed whales to echolocate is a remarkable case of convergent evolution. Previous genetic studies have documented parallel evolution of nucleotide sequences in Prestin and KCNQ4, both of which are associated with voltage motility during the cochlear amplification of signals. Echolocation involves complex mechanisms. The most important factors include cochlear amplification, nerve transmission, and signal re-coding. Herein, we screen three genes that play different roles in this auditory system. Cadherin 23 (Cdh23) and its ligand, protocadherin 15 (Pcdh15), are essential for bundling motility in the sensory hair. Otoferlin (Otof) responds to nerve signal transmission in the auditory inner hair cell. Signals of parallel evolution occur in all three genes in the three groups of echolocators—two groups of bats (Yangochiroptera and Rhinolophoidea) plus the dolphin. Significant signals of positive selection also occur in Cdh23 in the Rhinolophoidea and dolphin, and Pcdh15 in Yangochiroptera. In addition, adult echolocating bats have higher levels of Otof expression in the auditory cortex than do their embryos and non-echolocation bats. Cdh23 and Pcdh15 encode the upper and lower parts of tip-links, and both genes show signals of convergent evolution and positive selection in echolocators, implying that they may co-evolve to optimize cochlear amplification. Convergent evolution and expression patterns of Otof suggest the potential role of nerve and brain in echolocation. Our synthesis of gene sequence and gene expression analyses reveals that positive selection, parallel evolution, and perhaps co-evolution and gene expression affect multiple hearing genes that play different roles in audition, including voltage and bundle motility in cochlear amplification, nerve transmission, and brain function

Persistent Place-Making in Prehistory: the Creation, Maintenance, and Transformation of an Epipalaeolithic Landscape

Most archaeological projects today integrate, at least to some degree, how past people engaged with their surroundings, including both how they strategized resource use, organized technological production, or scheduled movements within a physical environment, as well as how they constructed cosmologies around or created symbolic connections to places in the landscape. However, there are a multitude of ways in which archaeologists approach the creation, maintenance, and transformation of human-landscape interrelationships. This paper explores some of these approaches for reconstructing the Epipalaeolithic (ca. 23,000–11,500 years BP) landscape of Southwest Asia, using macro- and microscale geoarchaeological approaches to examine how everyday practices leave traces of human-landscape interactions in northern and eastern Jordan. The case studies presented here demonstrate that these Epipalaeolithic groups engaged in complex and far-reaching social landscapes. Examination of the Early and Middle Epipalaeolithic (EP) highlights that the notion of “Neolithization” is somewhat misleading as many of the features we use to define this transition were already well-established patterns of behavior by the Neolithic. Instead, these features and practices were enacted within a hunter-gatherer world and worldview

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Contrasting effects of tropospheric ozone on five native herbs which coexist in calcareous grassland

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of increased tropospheric ozone concentrations on the growth and morphology of five native herbs commonly found to coexist in calcareous grassland in areas of Britain and continental Europe: Anthyllis vulneraria L., Cirsium acaule (L.) Scop., Festuca ovina L., Pilosella offtcinarum F. Shultz &amp; Shultz-Bip and Lotus comiculatus L.In a chronic fumigation (mean O3 concentration of 71 ppb (71 nl 1?1) for 7 h d?1 AOT40 4585 ppb-h) which lasted for 21 d, the effects of ozone were assessed using classical growth analysis. Large reductions in mean relative growth rates for shoot and root weight and root length were observed for the two legumes (Fabaceae) Lotus corniculatus and Anthyllis vulneraria, although these were only statistically significant for Lotus corniculatus. Significant reductions in specific root length (length per unit dry weight) were found for Cirsium acaule and Pilosella officinarum (Asteraceae), while for Festuca ovina (Poaceae) the allometric coefficient was reduced significantly following exposure to ozone.An acute fumigation (mean O3 concentration of 196 ppb, 7 h) resulted in a range of visible injury, from no injury (Festuca ovina and Pilosella officinarum) through moderate levels of injury (Cirsium acaule and Lotus corniculatus) to extensive and widespread injury (Anthyllis vulneraria). Scoring of visible damage showed that this was only statistically significant for the two legumes, Lotus corniculatus and Anthyllis vulneraria.These results suggest that native herbs may differ in their sensitivity to tropospheric ozone. Both chronic and acute exposures revealed that members of the Fabaceae may be most sensitive to ozone pollution, but the study also suggests that subtle changes in root morphology occurred for members of the Asteraceae. These findings are discussed in relation to the critical levels of ozone set recently for plants and the implications of increasing tropospheric ozone for the conservation of native plant communities

Fabrication of patterned pyramidal micromirros and current carrying wires for atom chips

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