State-space models' dirty little secrets: even simple linear Gaussian models can have estimation problems

State-space models (SSMs) are increasingly used in ecology to model time-series such as animal movement paths and population dynamics. This type of hierarchical model is often structured to account for two levels of variability: biological stochasticity and measurement error. SSMs are flexible. They can model linear and nonlinear processes using a variety of statistical distributions. Recent ecological SSMs are often complex, with a large number of parameters to estimate. Through a simulation study, we show that even simple linear Gaussian SSMs can suffer from parameter- and state-estimation problems. We demonstrate that these problems occur primarily when measurement error is larger than biological stochasticity, the condition that often drives ecologists to use SSMs. Using an animal movement example, we show how these estimation problems can affect ecological inference. Biased parameter estimates of a SSM describing the movement of polar bears (\textit{Ursus maritimus}) result in overestimating their energy expenditure. We suggest potential solutions, but show that it often remains difficult to estimate parameters. While SSMs are powerful tools, they can give misleading results and we urge ecologists to assess whether the parameters can be estimated accurately before drawing ecological conclusions from their results

President\u27s Council of Black Education Correspondence 1970

Correspondence between President of USF, Albert R. Jonsen, Herold L. Perry, Samuel L. Kountz, Terry A. Francois, and Burl A. Toler regarding the creation of the President\u27s Council of Black Education

Cosmopolitanism in a Globalized World: An Interdisciplinary Perspective

In this chapter, we develop a conceptual framework for cosmopolitanism as an individual-level phenomenon situated at the intersection of the moral, political, and sociocultural perspectives. The framework explicates the interrelations between macrolevel dynamics and individual experiences in a globalized world. We conceptualize cosmopolitanism as an individual disposition manifested and enacted through identities, attitudes, and practices. We also highlight the diversity of individuals who can be considered cosmopolitans, including those who may not possess the classic cosmopolitan CV. Finally, the chapter explores the implications of cosmopolitanism for global organizations and global leadership

Structural insights into the autoregulation and cooperativity of the human transcription factor Ets-2

Ets-2, like its closely related homologue Ets-1, is a member of the Ets family of DNA binding transcription factors. Both proteins are subject to multiple levels of regulation of their DNA binding and transactivation properties. One such regulatory mechanism is the presence of an autoinhibitory module, which in Ets-1 allosterically inhibits the DNA binding activity. This inhibition can be relieved by interaction with protein partners or cooperative binding to closely separated Ets binding sites in a palindromic arrangement. In this study we describe the 2.5 Å resolution crystal structure of a DNA complex of the Ets-2 Ets domain. The Ets domain crystallized with two distinct species in the asymmetric unit, which closely resemble the autoinhibited and DNA bound forms of Ets-1. This discovery prompted us to re-evaluate the current model for the autoinhibitory mechanism and the structural basis for cooperative DNA binding. In contrast to Ets-1, in which the autoinhibition is caused by a combination of allosteric and steric mechanisms, we were unable to find clear evidence for the allosteric mechanism in Ets-2. We also demonstrated two possibly distinct types of cooperative binding to substrates with Ets binding motifs separated by four and six base pairs and suggest possible molecular mechanisms for this behavior

Behavioral Response of a Mobile Marine Predator to Environmental Variables Differs Across Ecoregions

Animal movement and habitat selection are in part a response to landscape heterogeneity. Many studies of movement and habitat selection necessarily use environmental covariates that are readily available over large‐scales, which are assumed representative of functional habitat features such as resource availability. For widely distributed species, response to such covariates may not be consistent across ecosystems, as response to any specific covariate is driven by its biological relevance within the context of each ecosystem. Thus, the study of any widely distributed species within a limited geographic region may provide inferences that are not widely generalizable. Our goal was to evaluate the response of a marine predator to a suite of environmental covariates across a wide ecological gradient. We identified two behavioral states (resident and transient) in the movements of shortfin mako sharks (Isurus oxyrinchus) tracked via satellite telemetry in two regions of the western North Atlantic Ocean: the tropical Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico marginal sea (CGM), and the temperate waters off the east coast of North America (OWA). We compared patterns of resident behavior between regions, and modeled relationships between oceanographic variables and resident behavior. We tracked 39 sharks during 2013 – 2015. Resident behavior was associated with shallow, continental shelf and slope waters in both regions. In the OWA resident behavior was associated with low sea surface temperature and high primary productivity, however, sharks exhibited no response to either variable in the CGM. There was a negative relationship between sea‐surface height gradient (a proxy for oceanic fronts) and resident behavior in the OWA, and a positive relationship in the CGM. Our observations likely reflect shark responses to regional variability in factors responsible for the distribution and availability of prey. Our study illustrates the importance of studying widely distributed species in a consistent manner over large spatial scales

A comparison of the seasonal movements of tiger sharks and green turtles provides insight into their predator-prey relationship

During the reproductive season, sea turtles use a restricted area in the vicinity of their nesting beaches, making them vulnerable to predation. At Raine Island (Australia), the highest density green turtle Chelonia mydas rookery in the world, tiger sharks Galeocerdo cuvier have been observed to feed on green turtles, and it has been suggested that they may specialise on such air-breathing prey. However there is little information with which to examine this hypothesis. We compared the spatial and temporal components of movement behaviour of these two potentially interacting species in order to provide insight into the predator-prey relationship. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that tiger shark movements are more concentrated at Raine Island during the green turtle nesting season than outside the turtle nesting season when turtles are not concentrated at Raine Island. Turtles showed area-restricted search behaviour around Raine Island for ~3–4 months during the nesting period (November–February). This was followed by direct movement (transit) to putative foraging grounds mostly in the Torres Straight where they switched to area-restricted search mode again, and remained resident for the remainder of the deployment (53–304 days). In contrast, tiger sharks displayed high spatial and temporal variation in movement behaviour which was not closely linked to the movement behaviour of green turtles or recognised turtle foraging grounds. On average, tiger sharks were concentrated around Raine Island throughout the year. While information on diet is required to determine whether tiger sharks are turtle specialists our results support the hypothesis that they target this predictable and plentiful prey during turtle nesting season, but they might not focus on this less predictable food source outside the nesting season

A Parsimonious Approach to Modeling Animal Movement Data

Animal tracking is a growing field in ecology and previous work has shown that simple speed filtering of tracking data is not sufficient and that improvement of tracking location estimates are possible. To date, this has required methods that are complicated and often time-consuming (state-space models), resulting in limited application of this technique and the potential for analysis errors due to poor understanding of the fundamental framework behind the approach. We describe and test an alternative and intuitive approach consisting of bootstrapping random walks biased by forward particles. The model uses recorded data accuracy estimates, and can assimilate other sources of data such as sea-surface temperature, bathymetry and/or physical boundaries. We tested our model using ARGOS and geolocation tracks of elephant seals that also carried GPS tags in addition to PTTs, enabling true validation. Among pinnipeds, elephant seals are extreme divers that spend little time at the surface, which considerably impact the quality of both ARGOS and light-based geolocation tracks. Despite such low overall quality tracks, our model provided location estimates within 4.0, 5.5 and 12.0 km of true location 50% of the time, and within 9, 10.5 and 20.0 km 90% of the time, for above, equal or below average elephant seal ARGOS track qualities, respectively. With geolocation data, 50% of errors were less than 104.8 km (<0.94°), and 90% were less than 199.8 km (<1.80°). Larger errors were due to lack of sea-surface temperature gradients. In addition we show that our model is flexible enough to solve the obstacle avoidance problem by assimilating high resolution coastline data. This reduced the number of invalid on-land location by almost an order of magnitude. The method is intuitive, flexible and efficient, promising extensive utilization in future research

An argument for the use of Aristotelian method in bioethics

The main claim of this paper is that the method outlined and used in Aristotle's Ethics is an appropriate and credible one to use in bioethics. Here “appropriate” means that the method is capable of establishing claims and developing concepts in bioethics and “credible” that the method has some plausibility, it is not open to obvious and immediate objection. It begins by suggesting why this claim matters and then gives a brief outline of Aristotle's method. The main argument is made in three stages. First, it is argued that Aristotelian method is credible because it compares favourably with alternatives. In this section it is shown that Aristotelian method is not vulnerable to criticisms that are made both of methods that give a primary place to moral theory (such as utilitarianism) and those that eschew moral theory (such as casuistry and social science approaches). As such, it compares favourably with these other approaches that are vulnerable to at least some of these criticisms. Second, the appropriateness of Aristotelian method is indicated through outlining how it would deal with a particular case. Finally, it is argued that the success of Aristotle's philosophy is suggestive of both the credibility and appropriateness of his method.</p

Plasma concentrations of Gas6 and sAxl correlate with disease activity in systemic lupus erythematosus

Objectives. SLE is a systemic autoimmune disease with an annual incidence of 3.8 per 100 000. Several pathogenic mechanisms are believed to be operating in SLE, including an impaired clearance of apoptotic cells, activation of the type I IFN pathway and generation of autoimmune leucocytes. Growth arrest-specific protein 6 (Gas6) and its receptor Axl are known to regulate inflammation and may be implicated in lupus pathogenesis. We have recently developed immunological methods to quantify the vitamin-K-dependent protein Gas6 and its soluble receptor sAxl in human plasma, which we have used to investigate the role of Gas6 and soluble Axl in SLE

An economical Custom-Built drone for assessing whale health

Drones or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have huge potential to improve the safety and efficiency of sample collection from wild animals under logistically challenging circumstances. Here we present a method for surveying population health that uses UAVs to sample respiratory vapor, 'whale blow,' exhaled by free-swimming humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae), and coupled this with amplification and sequencing of respiratory tract microbiota. We developed a low-cost multirotor UAV incorporating a sterile petri dish with a remotely operated 'blow' to sample whale blow with minimal disturbance to the whales. This design addressed several sampling challenges: accessibility; safety; cost, and critically, minimized the collection of atmospheric and seawater microbiota and other potential sources of sample contamination. We collected 59 samples of blow from northward migrating humpback whales off Sydney, Australia and used high throughput sequencing of bacterial ribosomal gene markers to identify putative respiratory tract microbiota. Model-based comparisons with seawater and drone-captured air demonstrated that our system minimized external sources of contamination and successfully captured sufficient material to identify whale blow-specific microbial taxa. Whale-specific taxa included species and genera previously associated with the respiratory tracts or oral cavities of mammals (e.g., Pseudomonas, Clostridia, Cardiobacterium), as well as species previously isolated from dolphin or killer whale blowholes (Corynebacteria, others). Many examples of exogenous marine species were identified, including Tenacibaculum and Psychrobacter spp. that have been associated with the skin microbiota of marine mammals and fish and may include pathogens. This information provides a baseline of respiratory tract microbiota profiles of contemporary whale health. Customized UAVs are a promising new tool for marine megafauna research and may have broad application in cost-effective monitoring and management of whale populations worldwide