Bayesian calibration, validation and uncertainty quantification for predictive modelling of tumour growth: a tutorial

In this work we present a pedagogical tumour growth example, in which we apply calibration and validation techniques to an uncertain, Gompertzian model of tumour spheroid growth. The key contribution of this article is the discussion and application of these methods (that are not commonly employed in the field of cancer modelling) in the context of a simple model, whose deterministic analogue is widely known within the community. In the course of the example we calibrate the model against experimental data that is subject to measurement errors, and then validate the resulting uncertain model predictions. We then analyse the sensitivity of the model predictions to the underlying measurement model. Finally, we propose an elementary learning approach for tuning a threshold parameter in the validation procedure in order to maximize predictive accuracy of our validated model

Protecting Wild Land from Wind Farms in a Post-EU Scotland

Scotland is one of the places in Europe to have experienced significant wind farm development over recent years. Concern about impacts on wild land has resulted in legal challenges based on European Union (EU) law. This article analyses whether wild land can be protected from wind farms and the differences that the United Kingdom (UK) departure from the EU will make. It considers the concept of 'wild land' compared with 'wilderness', analyses the legal basis (if any) for wild land protection, and examines potential impacts from wind farms. It highlights the significance of EU environmental law, particularly nature conservation and environmental assessment law, and analyses recent Scottish jurisprudence that has applied this. The role of the European Commission and Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) is emphasised as a key part of EU environmental law. The article asks whether relevant global and regional environmental agreements can effectively replace the content of the substantive law and context of the Commission and CJEU. Four environmental agreements and two related compliance procedures are briefly evaluated. The conclusion is that while EU law does not directly provide protection for wild land, it is considerably stronger than the international environmental agreements that may replace it

Biodiversity and Health: Implications for Conservation

The human health and well-being benefits of contact with nature are becoming increasingly recognised and well understood, yet the implications of nature experiences for biodiversity conservation are far less clear. Theoretically, there are two plausible pathways that could lead to positive conservation outcomes. The first is a direct win-win scenario where biodiverse areas of high conservation value are also disproportionately beneficial to human health and well-being, meaning that the two sets of objectives can be simultaneously and directly achieved, as long as such green spaces are safeguarded appropriately. The second is that experiencing nature can stimulate people’s interest in biodiversity, concern for its fate, and willingness to take action to protect it, therefore generating conservation gains indirectly. To date, the two pathways have rarely been distinguished and scarcely studied. Here we consider how they may potentially operate in practice, while acknowledging that the mechanisms by which biodiversity might underpin human health and well-being benefits are still being determined

Identity, meaning and social support

(Chapter 9