PopMod: a longitudinal population model with two interacting disease states

This article provides a description of the population model PopMod, which is designed to simulate the health and mortality experience of an arbitrary population subjected to two interacting disease conditions as well as all other "background" causes of death and disability. Among population models with a longitudinal dimension, PopMod is unique in modelling two interacting disease conditions; among the life-table family of population models, PopMod is unique in not assuming statistical independence of the diseases of interest, as well as in modelling age and time independently. Like other multi-state models, however, PopMod takes account of "competing risk" among diseases and causes of death. PopMod represents a new level of complexity among both generic population models and the family of multi-state life tables. While one of its intended uses is to describe the time evolution of population health for standard demographic purposes (e.g. estimates of healthy life expectancy), another prominent aim is to provide a standard measure of effectiveness for intervention and cost-effectiveness analysis. PopMod, and a set of related standard approaches to disease modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis, will facilitate disease modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis in diverse settings and help make results more comparable

Distances from Surface Brightness Fluctuations

The practice of measuring galaxy distances from their spatial fluctuations in surface brightness is now a decade old. While several past articles have included some review material, this is the first intended as a comprehensive review of the surface brightness fluctuation (SBF) method. The method is conceptually quite simple, the basic idea being that nearby (but unresolved) star clusters and galaxies appear "bumpy", while more distant ones appear smooth. This is quantified via a measurement of the amplitude of the Poisson fluctuations in the number of unresolved stars encompassed by a CCD pixel (usually in an image of an elliptical galaxy). Here, we describe the technical details and difficulties involved in making SBF measurements, discuss theoretical and empirical calibrations of the method, and review the numerous applications of the method from the ground and space, in the optical and near-infrared. We include discussions of stellar population effects and the "universality" of the SBF standard candle. A final section considers the future of the method.Comment: Invited review article to appear in: `Post-Hipparcos Cosmic Candles', A. Heck & F. Caputo (Eds), Kluwer Academic Publ., Dordrecht, in press. 22 pages, including 3 postscript figures; uses Kluwer's crckapb.sty LaTex macro file, enclose

New evidence for a massive black hole at the centre of the quiescent galaxy M32

Massive black holes are thought to reside at the centres of many galaxies, where they power quasars and active galactic nuclei. But most galaxies are quiescent, indicating that any central massive black hole present will be starved of fuel and therefore detectable only through its gravitational influence on the motions of the surrounding stars. M32 is a nearby, quiescent elliptical galaxy in which the presence of a black hole has been suspected; however, the limited resolution of the observational data and the restricted classes of models used to interpret this data have made it difficult to rule out alternative explanations, such as models with an anisotropic stellar velocity distribution and no dark mass or models with a central concentration of dark objects (for example, stellar remnants or brown dwarfs). Here we present high-resolution optical HST spectra of M32, which show that the stellar velocities near the centre of this galaxy exceed those inferred from previous ground-based observations. We use a range of general dynamical models to determine a central dark mass concentration of (3.4 +/- 1.6) x 10^6 solar masses, contained within a region only 0.3 pc across. This leaves a massive black hole as the most plausible explanation of the data, thereby strengthening the view that such black holes exist even in quiescent galaxies.Comment: 8 pages, LaTeX, 3 figures; mpeg animation of the stellar motions in M32 available at http://oposite.stsci.edu/pubinfo/Anim.htm

World health system performance revisited: the impact of varying the relative importance of health system goals

BACKGROUND: In 2002, the World Health Organization published a health system performance ranking for 191 member countries. The ranking was based on five indicators, with fixed weights common to all countries. METHODS: We investigate the feasibility and desirability of using mathematical programming techniques that allow weights to vary across countries to reflect their varying circumstances and objectives. RESULTS: By global distributional measures, scores and ranks are found to be not very sensitive to changes in weights, although differences can be large for individual countries. CONCLUSIONS: Building the flexibility of variable weights into calculation of the performance index is a useful way to respond to the debates and criticisms appearing since publication of the ranking

Chronotropic incompetence and a higher frequency of myocardial ischemia in exercise echocardiography

Background Exercise echocardiography (EE) is an established method to diagnose coronary artery disease (CAD). Chronotropic incompetence (CI) during the EE may be a marker of myocardial ischemia. The purpose of this investigation was to evaluate the additive value of CI during EE in CAD diagnosis. Methods Between 2000 and 2006, 4042 patients (1900 men with a mean age of 56 ± 11 years) were evaluated by EE. Based on the heart rate (HR) reached during the exercise test, the subjects were divided into two groups: G1 group – 490 patients who failed to achieve 85% of the maximal age-predicted HR, and G2 group – 3552 patients who were able to achieve 85% of the maximal age-predicted HR. Clinical characteristics, left ventricular wall motion abnormalities – wall motion score index (WMSI) – and coronary angiography (CA) were the parameters compared between the two groups. Results The left ventricular wall motion abnormalities were more frequent in G1 group than in G2 group (54% versus 26%; P < 0.00001). WMSI was higher in G1 group than in G2 group, both at rest (1.06 ± 0.17 versus 1.02 ± 0.09; P < 0.0001) and after exercise (1.12 ± 0.23 versus 1.04 ± 0.21; P < 0.0001). In G1 group, 82% of the patients with positive EE for myocardial ischemia presented obstructive coronary, compared to 71% (P = 0.03) in G2 group. Conclusion CI is associated with a higher frequency of myocardial ischemia during EE, reinforcing the concept that CI is a marker of the severity of myocardial ischemia

Risk Factors for Obesity and High Blood Pressure in Chinese American Children: Maternal Acculturation and Children’s Food Choices

The objective of this study is to explore risk factors associated with overweight and high blood pressure in Chinese American children. Students and their parents were recruited from Chinese language schools in the San Francisco Bay Area. Data were collected on 67 children and their mothers, and included children’s weight, height, waist and hip circumferences, blood pressure, level of physical activity, dietary intake, usual food choice, knowledge about nutrition and physical activity, and self-efficacy regarding diet and physical activity. Mothers completed questionnaires on demographic data and acculturation. About 46% of children had a body mass index exceeding the 85th percentile. Lower level of maternal acculturation is a risk factor for overweight and higher waist to hip ratio. Children’s unhealthy food choices were predictive of high body mass index and high systolic blood pressure, whereas older age and less physical activity in children were predictors of high diastolic blood pressure. Developing culturally sensitive and developmentally appropriate interventions to reduce overweight and high blood pressure is critical to reduce health disparities among minority children

Direct Visualization of Protease Action on Collagen Triple Helical Structure

Enzymatic processing of extracellular matrix (ECM) macromolecules by matrix metalloproteases (MMPs) is crucial in mediating physiological and pathological cell processes. However, the molecular mechanisms leading to effective physiological enzyme-ECM interactions remain elusive. Only scant information is available on the mode by which matrix proteases degrade ECM substrates. An example is the enzymatic degradation of triple helical collagen II fragments, generated by the collagenase MMP-8 cleavage, during the course of acute inflammatory conditions by gelatinase B/MMP-9. As is the case for many other matrix proteases, it is not clear how MMP-9 recognizes, binds and digests collagen in this important physiological process. We used single molecule imaging to directly visualize this protease during its interaction with collagen fragments. We show that the initial binding is mediated by the diffusion of the protease along the ordered helix on the collagen ¾ fragment, with preferential binding of the collagen tail. As the reaction progressed and prior to collagen degradation, gelatin-like morphologies resulting from the denaturation of the triple helical collagen were observed. Remarkably, this activity was independent of enzyme proteolysis and was accompanied by significant conformational changes of the working protease. Here we provide the first direct visualization of highly complex mechanisms of macromolecular interactions governing the enzymatic processing of ECM substrates by physiological protease

Secular Evolution and the Formation of Pseudobulges in Disk Galaxies

We review internal processes of secular evolution in galaxy disks, concentrating on the buildup of dense central features that look like classical, merger-built bulges but that were made slowly out of disk gas. We call these pseudobulges. As an existence proof, we review how bars rearrange disk gas into outer rings, inner rings, and gas dumped into the center. In simulations, this gas reaches high densities that plausibly feed star formation. In the observations, many SB and oval galaxies show central concentrations of gas and star formation. Star formation rates imply plausible pseudobulge growth times of a few billion years. If secular processes built dense central components that masquerade as bulges, can we distinguish them from merger-built bulges? Observations show that pseudobulges retain a memory of their disky origin. They have one or more characteristics of disks: (1) flatter shapes than those of classical bulges, (2) large ratios of ordered to random velocities indicative of disk dynamics, (3) small velocity dispersions, (4) spiral structure or nuclear bars in the bulge part of the light profile, (5) nearly exponential brightness profiles, and (6) starbursts. These structures occur preferentially in barred and oval galaxies in which secular evolution should be rapid. So the cleanest examples of pseudobulges are recognizable. Thus a large variety of observational and theoretical results contribute to a new picture of galaxy evolution that complements hierarchical clustering and merging.Comment: 92 pages, 21 figures in 30 Postscript files; to appear in Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Vol. 42, 2004, in press; for a version with full resolution figures, see http://chandra.as.utexas.edu/~kormendy/ar3ss.htm

Structural studies of Helicase NS3 variants from Hepatitis C virus genotype 3 in virological sustained responder and non-responder patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>About 130 million people are infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) worldwide, but effective treatment options are not yet available. One of the most promising targets for antiviral therapy is nonstructural protein 3 (NS3). To identify possible changes in the structure of NS3 associated with virological sustained response or non-response of patients, a model was constructed for each helicase NS3 protein coding sequence. From this, the goal was to verify the interaction between helicases variants and their ligands.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>Evidence was found that the NS3 helicase portion of non-responder patients contained substitutions in its ATP and RNA binding sites. K210E substitution can cause an imbalance in the distribution of loads, leading to a decrease in the number of ligations between the essential amino acids required for the hydrolysis of ATP. W501R substitution causes an imbalance in the distribution of loads, leading and forcing the RNA to interact with the amino acid Thr269, but not preventing binding of ribavirin inhibitor.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Useful information is provided on the genetic profiling of the HCV genotype 3, specifically the coding region of the NS3 protein, improving our understanding of the viral genome and the regions of its protein catalytic site.</p

A meta-analysis of long-term effects of conservation agriculture on maize grain yield under rain-fed conditions

Conservation agriculture involves reduced tillage, permanent soil cover and crop rotations to enhance soil fertility and to supply food from a dwindling land resource. Recently, conservation agriculture has been promoted in Southern Africa, mainly for maize-based farming systems. However, maize yields under rain-fed conditions are often variable. There is therefore a need to identify factors that influence crop yield under conservation agriculture and rain-fed conditions. Here, we studied maize grain yield data from experiments lasting 5 years and more under rain-fed conditions. We assessed the effect of long-term tillage and residue retention on maize grain yield under contrasting soil textures, nitrogen input and climate. Yield variability was measured by stability analysis. Our results show an increase in maize yield over time with conservation agriculture practices that include rotation and high input use in low rainfall areas. But we observed no difference in system stability under those conditions. We observed a strong relationship between maize grain yield and annual rainfall. Our meta-analysis gave the following findings: (1) 92% of the data show that mulch cover in high rainfall areas leads to lower yields due to waterlogging; (2) 85% of data show that soil texture is important in the temporal development of conservation agriculture effects, improved yields are likely on well-drained soils; (3) 73% of the data show that conservation agriculture practices require high inputs especially N for improved yield; (4) 63% of data show that increased yields are obtained with rotation but calculations often do not include the variations in rainfall within and between seasons; (5) 56% of the data show that reduced tillage with no mulch cover leads to lower yields in semi-arid areas; and (6) when adequate fertiliser is available, rainfall is the most important determinant of yield in southern Africa. It is clear from our results that conservation agriculture needs to be targeted and adapted to specific biophysical conditions for improved impact