Nuevas aportaciones a la gestión informatizada de derrames de hidrocarburos: su aplicación a "zonas refugio"

pEl objeto del presente trabajo es el de describir la mayor parte de los procedimientos a seguir para decidir si es aconsejable trasladar un petrolero siniestrado a una “zona refugio”. Para tomar esta decisión se deberán considerar diferentes procedimientos, con la finalidad de objetivizar al máximo dicha decisión. Es de gran importancia conocer muy bien las características y las infraestructuras de las diferentes zonas costeras que pueden ser consideradas posibles “zonas refugio”. En base a todo lo anterior, se ha desarrollado un programa formado por varios módulos que permiten obtener datos de gran importancia, entre los que se incluyen las matrices de valores ambientales e infraestructurales, y que permite el cálculo de determinados factores determinantes para las actuaciones de traslado y preparación del petrolero (tiempo de traslado del petrolero, tiempo de atraque y conexión a los sistemas de bombeo, tiempo de vaciado de los hidrocarburos a los depósitos de almacenamiento, trasvase a otro petrolero, etc.). Además, dicho programa permite estimar los costes de limpieza y restauración, así como las pérdidas en el sector turístico./pp /ppstrongPalabras claves:/strong Hidrocarburos; Zona refugio; Derrames de hidrocarburos/p pDOI: a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5377/nexo.v24i1.590"http://dx.doi.org/10.5377/nexo.v24i1.590/a/p pNexo, Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 11-19, 2011/

Pattern Recognition in a Bimodal Aquifer Using the Normal-Score Ensemble Kalman Filter

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is now widely used in diverse disciplines to estimate model parameters and update model states by integrating observed data. The EnKF is known to perform optimally only for multi-Gaussian distributed states and parameters. A new approach, the normal-score EnKF (NS-EnKF), has been recently proposed to handle complex aquifers with non-Gaussian distributed parameters. In this work, we aim at investigating the capacity of the NS-EnKF to identify patterns in the spatial distribution of the model parameters (hydraulic conductivities) by assimilating dynamic observations in the absence of direct measurements of the parameters themselves. In some situations, hydraulic conductivity measurements (hard data) may not be available, which requires the estimation of conductivities from indirect observations, such as piezometric heads. We show how the NS-EnKF is capable of retrieving the bimodal nature of a synthetic aquifer solely from piezometric head data. By comparison with a more standard implementation of the EnKF, the NS-EnKF gives better results with regard to histogram preservation, uncertainty assessment, and transport predictions. © 2011 International Association for Mathematical Geosciences.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through project CGL2011-23295. The first author appreciates the financial aid from China Scholarship Council (CSC No. [2007]3020).Zhou, H.; Li, L.; Hendricks Franssen, H.; Gómez-Hernández, JJ. (2012). Pattern Recognition in a Bimodal Aquifer Using the Normal-Score Ensemble Kalman Filter. Mathematical Geosciences. 44(2):169-185. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-011-9372-3S169185442Arulampalam MS, Maskell S, Gordon N, Clapp T (2002) A tutorial on particle filters for online nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian tracking. 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J Energy Resour Technol 128:79–87Harbaugh AW, Banta ER, Hill MC, McDonald MG (2000) MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. geological survey modular ground-water model—user guide to modularization concepts and the ground-water flow process. Tech rep. Open-File Report 00-92, U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey. Reston, Virginia, 121 ppHendricks Franssen HJ, Kinzelbach W (2008) Real-time groundwater flow modeling with the Ensemble Kalman Filter: joint estimation for states and parameters and the filter inbreeding problem. Water Resour Res 44:W09408Hendricks Franssen HJ, Kinzelbach W (2009) Ensemble Kalman filtering versus sequential self-calibration for inverse modelling of dynamic groundwater flow systems. J Hydrol 365(3–4):261–274Houtekamer PL, Mitchell HL (2001) A sequential ensemble Kalman filter for atmospheric data assimilation. Mon Weather Rev 129:123–137Journel AG, Deutsch CV (1993) Entropy and spatial disorder. 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Exergo-economic comparison of waste heat recovery cycles for a cement industry case study

José J. Fierro ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2306-611X; Carlos A. Marenco-Porto ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2969-5040; César Nieto-Londoño ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6516-9630; Ana Escudero-Atehortua ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2962-4426; Hussam Jouhara ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6910-6116; Luiz C. Wrobel ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6702-0178.Copyright © 2022 The Authors. This work evaluates the performance regarding exergo-economic and emissions requirements of Waste Heat Recovery configurations (Organic Rankine cycle, Trilateral flash cycle, and Kalina cycle) under different operating conditions and working fluids. It was found that the best economic performance is presented by the Organic Rankine cycle that operates with Cyclo-Pentane and has two intermediate heat exchangers since it pushes the expansion temperature up while allowing a higher heat input to the cycle. As a result, it delivers 6.2 MW with a net present value, the net present value of 0.74 million dollars, saving up to 11480 tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. This performance far exceeds that obtained in the previous work, around 50% higher net-work with 80% higher net present value, and constitutes the best alternative in terms of performance to recover waste heat from the source evaluated. Regarding the Trilateral flash cycle, it can be stated that the net work and the exergetic performance are independent of the working fluid as long as there is not a very large volume change in the expander. The Kalina cycle presents slight exergy destruction, but the power delivered does not compensate for the high total capital cost due to the high pressures that must be handled, 55–120 bar, compared to the Organic Rankine cycle, 4–40 bar. An approach was made to more realistic cases where the methodology used facilitates selecting the best alternative when there is a budget restriction using the total capital cost and net work alternatively like a fixed requirement and net present value as the primary decision criterion.This research is funded by the The Royal Academy of Engineering through the Newton-Caldas Fund IAPP18-19\218 project that provides a framework where industry and academic institutions from Colombia and the UK collaborate in the heat recovery in large industrial systems

A new generic open pit mine planning process with risk assessment ability

Conventionally, mining industry relies on a deterministic view, where a unique mine plan is determined based on a single resource model. A major shortfall of this approach is the inability to assess the risk caused by the well-known geological uncertainty, i.e. the in situ grade and tonnage variability of the mineral deposit. Despite some recent attempts in developing stochastic mine planning models which have demonstrated promising results, the industry still remains sceptical about this innovative idea. With respect to unbiased linear estimation, kriging is the most popular and reliable deterministic interpolation technique for resource estimation and it appears to remain its popularity in the near future. This paper presents a new systematic framework to quantify the risk of kriging-based mining projects due to the geological uncertainties. Firstly, conditional simulation is implemented to generate a series of equally-probable orebody realisations and these realisations are then compared with the kriged resource model to analyse its geological uncertainty. Secondly, a production schedule over the life of mine is determined based on the kriged resource model. Finally, risk profiles of that production schedule, namely ore and waste tonnage production, blending grade and Net Present Value (NPV), are constructed using the orebody realisations. The proposed model was applied on a multi-element deposit and the result demonstrates that that the kriging-based mine plan is unlikely to meet the production targets. Especially, the kriging-based mine plan overestimated the expected NPV at a magnitude of 6.70% to 7.34% (135 M$to 151 M$). A new multivariate conditional simulation framework was also introduced in this paper to cope with the multivariate nature of the deposit. Although an iron ore deposit is used to prove the concepts, the method can easily be adapted to other kinds of mineral deposits, including surface coal mine

Stochastic upscaling of hydrodynamic dispersion and retardation factor in a physically and chemically heterogeneous tropical soil

[EN] Stochastic upscaling of flow and reactive solute transport in a tropical soil is performed using real data collected in the laboratory. Upscaling of hydraulic conductivity, longitudinal hydrodynamic dispersion, and retardation factor were done using three different approaches of varying complexity. How uncertainty propagates after upscaling was also studied. The results show that upscaling must be taken into account if a good reproduction of the flow and transport behavior of a given soil is to be attained when modeled at larger than laboratory scales. The results also show that arrival time uncertainty was well reproduced after solute transport upscaling. This work represents a first demonstration of flow and reactive transport upscaling in a soil based on laboratory data. It also shows how simple upscaling methods can be incorporated into daily modeling practice using commercial flow and transport codes.The authors thank the financial support by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) (Project 401441/2014-8). The doctoral fellowship award to the first author by the Coordination of Improvement of Higher Level Personnel (CAPES) is acknowledged. The first author also thanks the international mobility grant awarded by CNPq, through the Sciences Without Borders program (Grant Number: 200597/2015-9). The international mobility grant awarded by Santander Mobility in cooperation with the University of Sao Paulo is also acknowledged. DHI-WASI is gratefully thanked for providing a FEFLOW license.Almeida De-Godoy, V.; Zuquette, L.; Gómez-Hernández, JJ. (2019). Stochastic upscaling of hydrodynamic dispersion and retardation factor in a physically and chemically heterogeneous tropical soil. 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Appl Math Model 37:8533–8542. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2013.03.070Zech A, Attinger S, Cvetkovic V, Dagan G, Dietrich P, Fiori A, Rubin Y, Teutsch G (2015) Is unique scaling of aquifer macrodispersivity supported by field data? Water Resour Res 51:7662–7679. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017220Zhou H, Li L, Gómez-Hernández JJ (2010) Three-dimensional hydraulic conductivity upscaling in groundwater modeling. Comput Geosci 36:1224–1235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2010.03.008Zhou H, Li L, Hendricks Franssen H-J, Gómez-Hernández JJ (2012) Pattern recognition in a bimodal aquifer using the normal-score ensemble Kalman filter. Math Geosci 44:169–185. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-011-9372-

Diversity, structure and sources of bacterial communities in earthworm cocoons.

Animals start interactions with the bacteria that will constitute their microbiomes at embryonic stage. After mating, earthworms produce cocoons externally which will be colonized with bacteria from their parents and the environment. Due to the key role bacterial symbionts play on earthworm fitness, it is important to study bacterial colonization during cocoon formation. Here we describe the cocoon microbiome of the earthworms Eisenia andrei and E. fetida, which included 275 and 176 bacterial species, respectively. They were dominated by three vertically-transmitted symbionts, Microbacteriaceae, Verminephrobacter and Ca. Nephrothrix, which accounted for 88% and 66% of the sequences respectively. Verminephrobacter and Ca. Nephrothrix showed a high rate of sequence variation, suggesting that they could be biparentally acquired during mating. The other bacterial species inhabiting the cocoons came from the bedding, where they accounted for a small fraction of the diversity (27% and 7% of bacterial species for E. andrei and E. fetida bedding). Hence, earthworm cocoon microbiome includes a large fraction of the vertically-transmitted symbionts and a minor fraction, but more diverse, horizontally and non-randomly acquired from the environment. These data suggest that horizontally-transmitted bacteria to cocoons may play an important role in the adaptation of earthworms to new environments or diets

Decision making under uncertainty in environmental projects using mathematical simulation modeling

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-6135-yIn decision-making processes, reliability and risk aversion play a decisive role. The aim of this study is to perform an uncertainty assessment of the effects of future scenarios of sustainable groundwater pumping strategies on the quantitative and chemical status of an aquifer. The good status of the aquifer is defined according to the terms established by the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). A decision support systems (DSS) is presented, which makes use of a stochastic inverse model (GC method) and geostatistical approaches to calibrate equally likely realizations of hydraulic conductivity (K) fields for a particular case study. These K fields are conditional to available field data, including hard and soft information. Then, different future scenarios of groundwater pumping strategies are generated, based on historical information and WFD standards, and simulated for each one of the equally likely K fields. The future scenarios lead to different environmental impacts and levels of socioeconomic development of the region and, hence, to a different degree of acceptance among stakeholders. We have identified the different stakeholders implied in the decision-making process, the objectives pursued and the alternative actions that should be considered by stakeholders in a public participation project (PPP). The MonteCarlo simulation provides a highly effective way for uncertainty assessment and allows presenting the results in a simple and understandable way even for non-experts stakeholders. The methodology has been successfully applied to a real case study and lays the foundations to performa PPP and stakeholders' involvement in a decisionmaking process as required by the WFD. The results of the methodology can help the decision-making process to come up with the best policies and regulations for a groundwater system under uncertainty in groundwater parameters and management strategies and involving stakeholders with conflicting interests.Llopis Albert, C.; Palacios Marqués, D.; Merigó -Lindahl, JM. (2016). Decision making under uncertainty in environmental projects using mathematical simulation modeling. Environmental Earth Sciences. 75(19):1-11. doi:10.1007/s12665-016-6135-yS1117519Arhonditsis GB, Perhar G, Zhang W, Massos E, Shi M, Das A (2008) Addressing equifinality and uncertainty in eutrophication models. Water Resour Res 44:W01420. doi: 10.1029/2007WR005862Capilla JE, Llopis-Albert C (2009) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. J Hydrol 371:66–74. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.015CHJ (Júcar Water Agency) (2016) Júcar river basin authority. http://www.chj.es/CHS (Segura Water Agency) (2016) Segura river basin authority. http://www.chsegura.es/Custodio E (2002) Aquifer overexploitation: what does it mean? Hydrogeol J 10:254–277EC (2000). Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of October 23 2000, establishing a framework for community action in the field of water policy. Official Journal of the European Communities L327/1eL327/72. 22.12.2000EC (2006) Directive 2006/118/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 12 December 2006 on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deteriorationGómez-Hernández JJ, Srivastava RM (1990) ISIM3D: an ANSI-C three dimensional multiple indicator conditional simulation program. Comput Geosci 16(4):395–440Harbaugh AW, Banta ER, Hill MC and McDonald MG (2000) MODFLOW- 2000, The US geological survey modular groundwater model-user guide to modularization concepts and the groundwater flow process. US Geol. Surv. Open-File Rep 00–92, 12Hu LY (2000) Gradual deformation and iterative calibration of Gaussian related stochastic models. Math Geol 32(1):87–108Jagelke J, Barthel R (2005) Conceptualization and implementation of a regional groundwater model for the Neckar catchment in the framework of an integrated regional model. Adv Geosci 5:105–111Llopis-Albert C (2008) Stochastic inverse modeling conditional to flow, mass transport and secondary information. Universitat Politècnica de València, València. ISBN 978-84-691-9796-7Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2009a) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. Demonstration on a synthetic aquifer. J Hydrol 371:53–55. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.014Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2009b) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. Application to the macrodispersion experiment (MADE-2) site, on Columbus air force base in Mississippi (USA). J Hydrol 371:75–84. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.016Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2010a) Stochastic simulation of non-gaussian 3D conductivity fields in a fractured medium with multiple statistical populations: a case study. J Hydrol Eng 15(7):554–566. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000214Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2010b) Stochastic inverse modeling of hydraulic conductivity fields taking into account independent stochastic structures: a 3D case study. J Hydrol 391:277–288. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.028Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez D (2014) Discussion about the validity of sharp-interface models to deal with seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. Hydrol Process 28(10):3642–3654Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez D (2015) Using MODFLOW code to approach transient hydraulic head with a sharp-interface solution. Hydrol Process 29(8):2052–2064. doi: 10.1002/hyp.10354Llopis-Albert C, Palacios-Marqués D, Merigó JM (2014) A coupled stochastic inverse-management framework for dealing with nonpoint agriculture pollution under groundwater parameter uncertainty. J Hydrol 511:10–16. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.021Llopis-Albert C, Merigó JM, Palacios-Marqués D (2015) Structure adaptation in stochastic inverse methods for integrating information. Water Resour Manage 29(1):95–107. doi: 10.1007/s11269-014-0829-2Llopis-Albert C, Merigó JM, Xu Y (2016) A coupled stochastic inverse/sharp interface seawater intrusion approach for coastal aquifers under groundwater parameter uncertainty. J Hydrol 540:774–783. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.06.065McDonald MG and Harbaugh AW (1988) A modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater flow model. US geological survey technical manual of water resources investigation, Book 6, US geological survey, Reston, Virginia, 586Molina JL, Pulido-Velazquez M, Llopis-Albert C, Peña-Haro S (2013) Stochastic hydro-economic model for groundwater quality management using Bayesian networks. Water Sci Technol 67(3):579–586. doi: 10.2166/wst.2012.598Peña-Haro S, Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez M (2010) Fertilizer standards for controlling groundwater nitrate pollution from agriculture: El Salobral-Los Llanos case study, Spain. J Hydrol 392:174–187. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.08.006Peña-Haro S, Pulido-Velazquez M, Llopis-Albert C (2011) Stochastic hydro-economic modeling for optimal management of agricultural groundwater nitrate pollution under hydraulic conductivity uncertainty. Environ Model Softw 26(8):999–1008. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.02.010Pulido-Velazquez D, Llopis-Albert C, Peña-Haro S, Pulido-Velazquez M (2011) Efficient conceptual model for simulating the effect of aquifer heterogeneity on natural groundwater discharge to rivers. Adv Water Resour 34(11):1377–1389. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.07.010Reichert P, Borsuk M, Hostmann M, Schweizer S, Spörri C, Tockner K, Truffer B (2005) Concepts of decision support for river rehabilitation. Environ Model Softw 22:188–201Wright SAL, Fritsch O (2011) Operationalising active involvement in the EU water framework directive: why, when and how? Ecol Econ 70(12):2268–2274Zhou H, Gómez-Hernández JJ, Li L (2014) Inverse methods in hydrogeology: evolution and recent trends. Adv Water Resour 63:22–37. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.10.01

Intra-trackway morphological variations due to substrate consistency: the El Frontal dinosaur tracksite (Lower Cretaceous, Spain).

An ichnological and sedimentological study of the El Frontal dinosaur tracksite (Early Cretaceous, Cameros basin, Soria, Spain) highlights the pronounced intra-trackway variation found in track morphologies of four theropod trackways. Photogrammetric 3D digital models revealed various and distinct intra-trackway morphotypes, which reflect changes in footprint parameters such as the pace length, the track length, depth, and height of displacement rims. Sedimentological analyses suggest that the original substrate was non-homogenous due to lateral changes in adjoining microfacies. Multidata analyses indicate that morphological differences in these deep and shallow tracks represent a part of a continuum of track morphologies and geometries produced by a gradient of substrate consistencies across the site. This implies that the large range of track morphologies at this site resulted from similar trackmakers crossing variable facies. The trackways at the El Frontal site present an exemplary case of how track morphology, and consequently potential ichnotaxa, can vary, even when produced by a single trackmaker

Oral health service utilization by elderly beneficiaries of the Mexican Institute of Social Security in México city

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aging population poses a challenge to Mexican health services. The aim of this study is to describe recent oral health services utilization and its association with socio-demographic characteristics and co-morbidity in Mexican Social Security beneficiaries 60 years and older.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A sample of 700 individuals aged 60+ years was randomly chosen from the databases of the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS). These participants resided in the southwest of Mexico City and made up the final sample of a cohort study for identifying risk factors for root caries in elderly patients. Sociodemographic variables, presence of cognitive decline, depression, morbidity, medication consumption, and utilization of as well as reasons for seeking oral health services within the past 12 months were collected through a questionnaire. Clinical oral assessments were carried out to determine coronal and root caries experience.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The sample consisted of 698 individuals aged 71.6 years on average, of whom 68.3% were women. 374 participants (53.6%) had made use of oral health services within the past 12 months. 81% of those who used oral health services sought private medical care, 12.8% sought social security services, and 6.2% public health services. 99.7% had experienced coronal caries and 44.0% root caries. Female sex (OR = 2.0), 6 years' schooling or less (OR = 1.4), and caries experience in more than 22 teeth (OR = 0.6) are factors associated with the utilization of these services.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>About half the elderly beneficiaries of social security have made use of oral health services within the past 12 months, and many of them have to use private services. Being a woman, having little schooling, and low caries experience are factors associated with the use of these services.</p

Prevalence and Determinants of Metabolic Syndrome among Women in Chinese Rural Areas

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Metabolic syndrome (MS) is prevalent in recent years but few data is reported in the rural areas in China. The aim of this study was to examine MS prevalence and its risk factors among women in rural China. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Nantong Metabolic Syndrome Study (NMSS), a population based cross-sectional study, was conducted during 2007-2008 in Nantong, China. In person interviews, blood glucose and lipid measurements were completed for 13,505 female participants aged 18-74 years. The International Diabetes Federation (IDF), the US Third Report of the National Cholesterol Education Program, the Adult Treatment Panel (ATPIII) and modified ATPIII for Asian population has determined three criteria of MS. These criteria for MS were used and compared in this study. The prevalence of MS was 22.0%, 16.9% and 23.3% according to IDF, ATPIII and ATPIII-modified criteria, respectively. Levels of agreement of these criteria for MS were above 0.75. We found that vigorous-intensity of occupational physical activity was associated with a low prevalence of MS with OR of 0.76 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63-0.91). Rice wine drinkers (alcohol >12.8 g/day) had about 34% low risks of developing MS with OR of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.48-0.91), compared with non-drinkers. Odds ratio of MS was 1.81 (95% CI: 1.15-2.84) in women who smoked more than 20 pack-years, compared to non-smokers. Odds ratio of MS was 1.56 (95% CI: 1.25-1.95) in women who had familial history of diseases, including hypertension, diabetes and stroke, compared to women without familial history of those diseases. CONCLUSION: MS is highly prevalent among women in rural China. Both physical activity and rice wine consumption play a protective role, while family history and smoking are risk factors in MS development. Educational programs should be established for promoting healthy lifestyles and appropriate interventions in rural China