A regional Bayesian POT model for flood frequency analysis

Flood frequency analysis is usually based on the fitting of an extreme value distribution to the local streamflow series. However, when the local data series is short, frequency analysis results become unreliable. Regional frequency analysis is a convenient way to reduce the estimation uncertainty. In this work, we propose a regional Bayesian model for short record length sites. This model is less restrictive than the index flood model while preserving the formalism of "homogeneous regions". The performance of the proposed model is assessed on a set of gauging stations in France. The accuracy of quantile estimates as a function of the degree of homogeneity of the pooling group is also analysed. The results indicate that the regional Bayesian model outperforms the index flood model and local estimators. Furthermore, it seems that working with relatively large and homogeneous regions may lead to more accurate results than working with smaller and highly homogeneous regions

Anti-proliferative activity of the quassinoid NBT-272 in childhood medulloblastoma cells

BACKGROUND: With current treatment strategies, nearly half of all medulloblastoma (MB) patients die from progressive tumors. Accordingly, the identification of novel therapeutic strategies remains a major goal. Deregulation of c-MYC is evident in numerous human cancers. In MB, over-expression of c-MYC has been shown to correlate with anaplasia and unfavorable prognosis. In neuroblastoma – an embryonal tumor with biological similarities to MB – the quassinoid NBT-272 has been demonstrated to inhibit cellular proliferation and to down-regulate c-MYC protein expression. METHODS: To study MB cell responses to NBT-272 and their dependence on the level of c-MYC expression, DAOY (wild-type, empty vector transfected or c-MYC transfected), D341 (c-MYC amplification) and D425 (c-MYC amplification) human MB cells were used. The cells were treated with different concentrations of NBT-272 and the impact on cell proliferation, apoptosis and c-MYC expression was analyzed. RESULTS: NBT-272 treatment resulted in a dose-dependent inhibition of cellular proliferation (IC50 in the range of 1.7 – 9.6 ng/ml) and in a dose-dependent increase in apoptotic cell death in all human MB cell lines tested. Treatment with NBT-272 resulted in up to 90% down-regulation of c-MYC protein, as demonstrated by Western blot analysis, and in a significant inhibition of c-MYC binding activity. Anti-proliferative effects were slightly more prominent in D341 and D425 human MB cells with c-MYC amplification and slightly more pronounced in c-MYC over-expressing DAOY cells compared to DAOY wild-type cells. Moreover, treatment of synchronized cells by NBT-272 induced a marked cell arrest at the G1/S boundary. CONCLUSION: In human MB cells, NBT-272 treatment inhibits cellular proliferation at nanomolar concentrations, blocks cell cycle progression, induces apoptosis, and down-regulates the expression of the oncogene c-MYC. Thus, NBT-272 may represent a novel drug candidate to inhibit proliferation of human MB cells in vivo

Design Characteristics Influence Performance of Clinical Prediction Rules in Validation: A Meta-Epidemiological Study

BACKGROUND: Many new clinical prediction rules are derived and validated. But the design and reporting quality of clinical prediction research has been less than optimal. We aimed to assess whether design characteristics of validation studies were associated with the overestimation of clinical prediction rules' performance. We also aimed to evaluate whether validation studies clearly reported important methodological characteristics. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched for systematic reviews of clinical prediction rule studies published between 2006 and 2010. Data were extracted from the eligible validation studies included in the systematic reviews. A meta-analytic meta-epidemiological approach was used to assess the influence of design characteristics on predictive performance. From each validation study, it was assessed whether 7 design and 7 reporting characteristics were properly described. RESULTS: A total of 287 validation studies of clinical prediction rule were collected from 15 systematic reviews (31 meta-analyses). Validation studies using case-control design produced a summary diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) 2.2 times (95% CI: 1.2-4.3) larger than validation studies using cohort design and unclear design. When differential verification was used, the summary DOR was overestimated by twofold (95% CI: 1.2 -3.1) compared to complete, partial and unclear verification. The summary RDOR of validation studies with inadequate sample size was 1.9 (95% CI: 1.2 -3.1) compared to studies with adequate sample size. Study site, reliability, and clinical prediction rule was adequately described in 10.1%, 9.4%, and 7.0% of validation studies respectively. CONCLUSION: Validation studies with design shortcomings may overestimate the performance of clinical prediction rules. The quality of reporting among studies validating clinical prediction rules needs to be improved

Reporting and Methods in Clinical Prediction Research: A Systematic Review

Walter Bouwmeester and colleagues investigated the reporting and methods of prediction studies in 2008, in six high-impact general medical journals, and found that the majority of prediction studies do not follow current methodological recommendations

Magnesium isotope evidence that accretional vapour loss shapes planetary compositions

It has long been recognized that Earth and other differentiated planetary bodies are chemically fractionated compared to primitive, chondritic meteorites and, by inference, the primordial disk from which they formed. However, it is not known whether the notable volatile depletions of planetary bodies are a consequence of accretion1 or inherited from prior nebular fractionation2. The isotopic compositions of the main constituents of planetary bodies can contribute to this debate3, 4, 5, 6. Here we develop an analytical approach that corrects a major cause of measurement inaccuracy inherent in conventional methods, and show that all differentiated bodies have isotopically heavier magnesium compositions than chondritic meteorites. We argue that possible magnesium isotope fractionation during condensation of the solar nebula, core formation and silicate differentiation cannot explain these observations. However, isotopic fractionation between liquid and vapour, followed by vapour escape during accretionary growth of planetesimals, generates appropriate residual compositions. Our modelling implies that the isotopic compositions of magnesium, silicon and iron, and the relative abundances of the major elements of Earth and other planetary bodies, are a natural consequence of substantial (about 40 per cent by mass) vapour loss from growing planetesimals by this mechanism

Impact-induced changes in source depth and volume of magmatism on Mercury and their observational signatures

Mantle partial melting produced the volcanic crust of Mercury. Here, the authors numerically model the formation of post-impact melt sheets and find that mantle convection was weak at around 3.7–3.8 Ga and that the melt sheets of Caloris and Rembrandt may contain partial melting of pristine mantle material

Overview of the River Basin Management Plans Developed in Greece Under the Context of the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC Focusing on the Economic Analysis

The most important piece of legislation towards integrated water management in Europe is the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC (WFD) based on the river basin. During its implementation each Member State (MS) should prepare a River Basin Management Plan (RBMP) accompanied with the Programme of Measures (PoMs) aiming at achieving good quality for all water bodies. The paper aims at presenting a summary of the progress regarding the RBMPs developed by each EU27 MS and special focus is given in Greece. The paper attempts a comparative analysis of the 12 Greek RBMPs highlighting the problems occurred and the drawbacks identified. Special focus is given in the economic analysis assessment where different methodologies are used to estimate the full water cost. Finally suggestions are given that can be taken into consideration during the second WFD implementation cycle in Greece