Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty

The global flood protection savings provided by coral reefs

Coral reefs can provide significant coastal protection benefits to people and property. Here we show that the annual expected damages from flooding would double, and costs from frequent storms would triple without reefs. For 100-year storm events, flood damages would increase by 91% to $US 272 billion without reefs. The countries with the most to gain from reef management are Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Mexico, and Cuba; annual expected flood savings exceed$400?M for each of these nations. Sea-level rise will increase flood risk, but substantial impacts could happen from reef loss alone without better near-term management. We provide a global, process-based valuation of an ecosystem service across an entire marine biome at (sub)national levels. These spatially explicit benefits inform critical risk and environmental management decisions, and the expected benefits can be directly considered by governments (e.g., national accounts, recovery plans) and businesses (e.g., insurance).We gratefully acknowledge support from the World Bank Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystems (WAVES) Program, the Lyda Hill Foundation, Science for Nature and People Partnership, Lloyd’s Tercentenary Research Foundation, a Pew Fellowship in Marine Conservation to MWB, the German International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Innovation (BIA2014-59718- R)

Building adaptive capacity to climate change in tropical coastal communities

To minimize the impacts of climate change on human wellbeing, governments, development agencies, and civil society organizations have made substantial investments in improving people's capacity to adapt to change. Yet to date, these investments have tended to focus on a very narrow understanding of adaptive capacity. Here, we propose an approach to build adaptive capacity across five domains: the assets that people can draw upon in times of need; the flexibility to change strategies; the ability to organize and act collectively; learning to recognize and respond to change; and the agency to determine whether to change or not

Lawson criterion for ignition exceeded in an inertial fusion experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion

Shoreline change and sea level rise at the Muni-Pomadze coastal wetland (Ramsar site), Ghana

Lagoon-wetland systems are common along low-lying coastlines. They provide rich species habitats, multiple ecosystem services and socio-economic activities. They are particularly susceptible to the impacts of sea level rise (SLR), especially in less developed countries (LDCs) where economic and development constraints limit adaptation. The Muni-Pomadze lagoon is one of five coastal Ramsar sites in Ghana and one of many along the country’s coastline. It is an intermittently closed lagoon with extreme seasonal hydrological and physico-chemical variation. Field observation, digital mapping and GIS analysis of the shoreline has enabled an understanding of coastal change and SLR at the lagoon. From 1972 to 2014 the high water mark has shifted landwards with an average retreat rate of 0.22 m/year. Evidence of erosion and sediment washover indicate loss of and a shift landward of the sand barrier separating the lagoon from the ocean. Creation of an inundation map for a one-meter rise of sea level reveals fragementation and breaching of the barrier and an increasingly permanent connection to the ocean. A more open lagoon system stabilises hydrological and physico-chemical conditions, leading to increases in biodiversity and aquatic productivity. The lagoon currently has no consideration of SLR in its management plan. The results of this analysis and the limited development of the Muni-Pomadze lagoon support a no intervention approach to coastal management that allows SLR to transform the closed lagoon to an open estuary. A similar approach at comparable coastal wetland systems in Ghana and in other LDCs could prove an effective management option.Sheffield Hallam University Department of Natural and Built Environment professional development funds. University of Virginia