Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy

This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanisms, such as technology lock-ins, arising from multi-agent interactions) and agent heterogeneity (e.g. differences in consumer and investment behaviour arising from income stratification). We first characterise the uncertainty faced by climate policy-makers and its implications for investment decision-makers. We then identify five shortcomings in the equilibrium and optimisation-based approaches most frequently used to inform sustainability policy: (i) their normative, optimisation-based nature, (ii) their unrealistic reliance on the full-rationality of agents, (iii) their inability to account for mutual influences among agents (multi-agent interactions) and capture related self-reinforcing (positive feedback) processes, (iv) their inability to represent multiple solutions and path-dependency, and (v) their inability to properly account for agent heterogeneity. The aim of this article is to introduce an alternative modelling approach based on complexity dynamics and agent heterogeneity, and explore its use in four key areas of sustainability policy, namely (1) technology adoption and diffusion, (2) macroeconomic impacts of low-carbon policies, (3) interactions between the socio-economic system and the natural environment, and (4) the anticipation of policy outcomes. The practical relevance of the proposed methodology is subsequently discussed by reference to four specific applications relating to each of the above areas: the diffusion of transport technology, the impact of low-carbon investment on income and employment, the management of cascading uncertainties, and the cross-sectoral impact of biofuels policies. In conclusion, the article calls for a fundamental methodological shift aligning the modelling of the socio-economic system with that of the climatic system, for a combined and realistic understanding of the impact of sustainability policies.J.-F. M. acknowledge the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), fellowship no EP/ K007254/1 and J.-F.M. and J. V. acknowledge a networking grant of the EPSRC (Newton Fund) EP/N002504/1.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Elsevier via https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.02.00

Geography of Diet in the UK Women’s Cohort Study: A Cross-Sectional Analysis

Diet can influence health outcomes and chronic disease risk, therefore a better understanding of factors influencing diet is important in promotion of healthier dietary choices. Many factors influence food choice, including the environment in which we live. This study aims to explore differences in dietary pattern consumption by two spatial measures: Government Office Region (a large regional unit of geography) and Output Area Classification (a small area geography combined with demographic characteristics). A cross-sectional analysis using data from the UK Women’s Cohort Study was carried out. This cohort included ~35000 middle aged women recruited between 1995 and 1999. Dietary patterns were derived using a k-means cluster analysis from diet data collected using a validated 217 item Food Frequency Questionnaire. Multinomial logit regression was used to test whether the area in which the women live, predicts their dietary pattern consumption. Results show that dietary patterns vary significantly by both spatial measures. The Government Office Region, the North West of England has the highest proportion of individuals consuming the least healthy, monotonous diets, while Greater London has the highest proportion of vegetarian diets. Individuals living in Supergroups ‘Countryside’ and ‘Prospering Suburbs’ consume healthier, more diverse diets. Those in ‘Constrained by Circumstance’ and ‘Blue Collar Communities’ consume monotonous, less healthy diets. Using a combination of spatial scales such as Government Office Region and Output Area Classification Supergroup could have a beneficial impact on targeting of public health dietary interventions and subsequent health

GLP-1 action in the mouse bed nucleus of the stria terminalis

Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) injected into the brain reduces food intake. Similarly, activation of preproglucagon (PPG) cells in the hindbrain which synthesize GLP-1, reduces food intake. However, it is far from clear whether this happens because of satiety, nausea, reduced reward, or even stress. Here we explore the role of the bed nucleus of the stria terminalis (BNST), an area involved in feeding control as well as stress responses, in GLP-1 responses. Using cre-expressing mice we visualized projections of NTS PPG neurons and GLP-1R-expressing BNST cells with AAV-driven Channelrhodopsin-YFP expression. The BNST displayed many varicose YFP+ PPG axons in the ventral and less in the dorsal regions. Mice which express RFP in GLP-1R neurons had RFP+ cells throughout the BNST with the highest density in the dorsal part, suggesting that PPG neuron-derived GLP-1 acts in the BNST. Indeed, injection of GLP-1 into the BNST reduced chow intake during the dark phase, whereas injection of the GLP-1 receptor antagonist Ex9 increased feeding. BNST-specific GLP-1-induced food suppression was less effective in mice on high fat (HF, 60%) diet, and Ex9 had no effect. Restraint stress-induced hypophagia was attenuated by BNST Ex9 treatment, further supporting a role for endogenous brain GLP-1. Finally, whole-cell patch clamp recordings of RFP+ BNST neurons demonstrated that GLP-1 elicited either a depolarizing or hyperpolarizing reversible response that was of opposite polarity to that under dopamine. Our data support a physiological role for BNST GLP-1R in feeding, and suggest complex cellular responses to GLP-1 in this nucleus

Theories of behaviour change synthesised into a set of theoretical groupings: Introducing a thematic series on the Theoretical Domains Framework

Behaviour change is key to increasing the uptake of evidence into healthcare practice. Designing behaviour-change interventions first requires problem analysis, ideally informed by theory. Yet the large number of partly overlapping theories of behaviour makes it difficult to select the most appropriate theory. The need for an overarching theoretical framework of behaviour change was addressed in research in which 128 explanatory constructs from 33 theories of behaviour were identified and grouped. The resulting Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) appears to be a helpful basis for investigating implementation problems. Research groups in several countries have conducted TDF-based studies. It seems timely to bring together the experience of these teams in a thematic series to demonstrate further applications and to report key developments. This overview article describes the TDF, provides a brief critique of the framework, and introduces this thematic series. In a brief review to assess the extent of TDF-based research, we identified 133 papers that cite the framework. Of these, 17 used the TDF as the basis for empirical studies to explore health professionals’ behaviour. The identified papers provide evidence of the impact of the TDF on implementation research. Two major strengths of the framework are its theoretical coverage and its capacity to elicit beliefs that could signify key mediators of behaviour change. The TDF provides a useful conceptual basis for assessing implementation problems, designing interventions to enhance healthcare practice, and understanding behaviour-change processes. We discuss limitations and research challenges and introduce papers in this series

Batch solution of small PDEs with the OPS DSL

In this paper we discuss the challenges and optimisations opportunities when solving a large number of small, equally sized discretised PDEs on regular grids. We present an extension of the OPS (Oxford Parallel library for Structured meshes) embedded Domain Specific Language, and show how support can be added for solving multiple systems, and how OPS makes it easy to deploy a variety of transformations and optimisations. The new capabilities in OPS allow to automatically apply data structure transformations, as well as execution schedule transformations to deliver high performance on a variety of hardware platforms. We evaluate our work on an industrially representative finance simulation on Intel CPUs, as well as NVIDIA GPUs

Quantum Measurement and the Aharonov-Bohm Effect with Superposed Magnetic Fluxes

We consider the magnetic flux in a quantum mechanical superposition of two values and find that the Aharonov-Bohm effect interference pattern contains information about the nature of the superposition, allowing information about the state of the flux to be extracted without disturbance. The information is obtained without transfer of energy or momentum and by accumulated nonlocal interactions of the vector potential $\vec{A}$ with many charged particles forming the interference pattern, rather than with a single particle. We suggest an experimental test using already experimentally realized superposed currents in a superconducting ring and discuss broader implications.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures; Changes from version 3: corrected typo (not present in versions 1 and 2) in Eq. 8; Changes from version 2: shortened abstract; added refs and material in Section IV. The final publication is available at: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11128-013-0652-

The depression in visual impairment trial (DEPVIT): trial design and protocol

<b>Background</b> The prevalence of depression in people with a visual disability is high but screening for depression and referral for treatment is not yet an integral part of visual rehabilitation service provision. One reason for this may be that there is no good evidence about the effectiveness of treatments in this patient group. This study is the first to evaluate the effect of depression treatments on people with a visual impairment and co morbid depression.<p></p> <b>Methods/design</b> The study is an exploratory, multicentre, individually randomised waiting list controlled trial. Participants will be randomised to receive Problem Solving Therapy (PST), a ‘referral to the GP’ requesting treatment according to the NICE’s ‘stepped care’ recommendations or the waiting list arm of the trial. The primary outcome measure is change (from randomisation) in depressive symptoms as measured by the Beck’s Depression Inventory (BDI-II) at 6 months. Secondary outcomes include change in depressive symptoms at 3 months, change in visual function as measured with the near vision subscale of the VFQ-48 and 7 item NEI-VFQ at 3 and 6 months, change in generic health related quality of life (EQ5D), the costs associated with PST, estimates of incremental cost effectiveness, and recruitment rate estimation.<p></p> <b>Discussion</b> Depression is prevalent in people with disabling visual impairment. This exploratory study will establish depression screening and referral for treatment in visual rehabilitation clinics in the UK. It will be the first to explore the efficacy of PST and the effectiveness of NICE’s ‘stepped care’ approach to the treatment of depression in people with a visual impairment.<p></p&gt

Left Ventricular Outflow Tract Obstruction Defined by Active Three-Dimensional Echocardiography Using Rotational Transthoracic Acquisition

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75675/1/j.1540-8175.1994.tb01105.x.pd

Process evaluation of the Bristol girls dance project

Background: The Bristol Girls Dance Project was a cluster randomised controlled trial that aimed to increase objectively measured moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) levels of Year 7 (age 11–12) girls through a dance-based after-school intervention. The intervention was delivered in nine schools and consisted of up to forty after-school dance sessions. This paper reports on the main findings from the detailed process evaluation that was conducted. / Methods: Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from intervention schools. Dose and fidelity were reported by dance instructors at every session. Intervention dose was defined as attending two thirds of sessions and was measured by attendance registers. Fidelity to the intervention manual was reported by dance instructors. On four randomly-selected occasions, participants reported their perceived level of exertion and enjoyment. Reasons for non-attendance were self-reported at the end of the intervention. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with all dance instructors who delivered the intervention (n = 10) and school contacts (n = 9) in intervention schools. A focus group was conducted with girls who participated in each intervention school (n = 9). / Results: The study did not affect girls’ MVPA. An average of 31.7 girls participated in each school, with 9.1 per school receiving the intervention dose. Mean attendance and instructors’ fidelity to the intervention manual decreased over time. The decline in attendance was largely attributed to extraneous factors common to after-school activities. Qualitative data suggest that the training and intervention manual were helpful to most instructors. Participant ratings of session enjoyment were high but perceived exertion was low, however, girls found parts of the intervention challenging. / Conclusions: The intervention was enjoyed by participants. Attendance at the intervention sessions was low but typical of after-school activities. Participants reported that the intervention brought about numerous health and social benefits and improved their dance-based knowledge and skills. The intervention could be improved by reducing the number of girls allowed to participate in each school and providing longer and more in-depth training to those delivering the intervention. / Trial registration: ISRCTN52882523 Registered 25th April 2013

Longitudinal Research on Alcohol Problems: The Flow of Risk, Problems, and Disorder over Time

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65764/1/j.1530-0277.1996.tb01753.x.pd