Decision making under uncertainty in environmental projects using mathematical simulation modeling

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-6135-yIn decision-making processes, reliability and risk aversion play a decisive role. The aim of this study is to perform an uncertainty assessment of the effects of future scenarios of sustainable groundwater pumping strategies on the quantitative and chemical status of an aquifer. The good status of the aquifer is defined according to the terms established by the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). A decision support systems (DSS) is presented, which makes use of a stochastic inverse model (GC method) and geostatistical approaches to calibrate equally likely realizations of hydraulic conductivity (K) fields for a particular case study. These K fields are conditional to available field data, including hard and soft information. Then, different future scenarios of groundwater pumping strategies are generated, based on historical information and WFD standards, and simulated for each one of the equally likely K fields. The future scenarios lead to different environmental impacts and levels of socioeconomic development of the region and, hence, to a different degree of acceptance among stakeholders. We have identified the different stakeholders implied in the decision-making process, the objectives pursued and the alternative actions that should be considered by stakeholders in a public participation project (PPP). The MonteCarlo simulation provides a highly effective way for uncertainty assessment and allows presenting the results in a simple and understandable way even for non-experts stakeholders. The methodology has been successfully applied to a real case study and lays the foundations to performa PPP and stakeholders' involvement in a decisionmaking process as required by the WFD. The results of the methodology can help the decision-making process to come up with the best policies and regulations for a groundwater system under uncertainty in groundwater parameters and management strategies and involving stakeholders with conflicting interests.Llopis Albert, C.; Palacios Marqués, D.; Merigó -Lindahl, JM. (2016). Decision making under uncertainty in environmental projects using mathematical simulation modeling. Environmental Earth Sciences. 75(19):1-11. doi:10.1007/s12665-016-6135-yS1117519Arhonditsis GB, Perhar G, Zhang W, Massos E, Shi M, Das A (2008) Addressing equifinality and uncertainty in eutrophication models. Water Resour Res 44:W01420. doi: 10.1029/2007WR005862Capilla JE, Llopis-Albert C (2009) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. J Hydrol 371:66–74. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.015CHJ (Júcar Water Agency) (2016) Júcar river basin authority. http://www.chj.es/CHS (Segura Water Agency) (2016) Segura river basin authority. http://www.chsegura.es/Custodio E (2002) Aquifer overexploitation: what does it mean? Hydrogeol J 10:254–277EC (2000). Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of October 23 2000, establishing a framework for community action in the field of water policy. Official Journal of the European Communities L327/1eL327/72. 22.12.2000EC (2006) Directive 2006/118/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 12 December 2006 on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deteriorationGómez-Hernández JJ, Srivastava RM (1990) ISIM3D: an ANSI-C three dimensional multiple indicator conditional simulation program. Comput Geosci 16(4):395–440Harbaugh AW, Banta ER, Hill MC and McDonald MG (2000) MODFLOW- 2000, The US geological survey modular groundwater model-user guide to modularization concepts and the groundwater flow process. US Geol. Surv. Open-File Rep 00–92, 12Hu LY (2000) Gradual deformation and iterative calibration of Gaussian related stochastic models. Math Geol 32(1):87–108Jagelke J, Barthel R (2005) Conceptualization and implementation of a regional groundwater model for the Neckar catchment in the framework of an integrated regional model. Adv Geosci 5:105–111Llopis-Albert C (2008) Stochastic inverse modeling conditional to flow, mass transport and secondary information. Universitat Politècnica de València, València. ISBN 978-84-691-9796-7Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2009a) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. Demonstration on a synthetic aquifer. J Hydrol 371:53–55. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.014Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2009b) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. Application to the macrodispersion experiment (MADE-2) site, on Columbus air force base in Mississippi (USA). J Hydrol 371:75–84. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.016Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2010a) Stochastic simulation of non-gaussian 3D conductivity fields in a fractured medium with multiple statistical populations: a case study. J Hydrol Eng 15(7):554–566. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000214Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2010b) Stochastic inverse modeling of hydraulic conductivity fields taking into account independent stochastic structures: a 3D case study. J Hydrol 391:277–288. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.028Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez D (2014) Discussion about the validity of sharp-interface models to deal with seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. Hydrol Process 28(10):3642–3654Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez D (2015) Using MODFLOW code to approach transient hydraulic head with a sharp-interface solution. Hydrol Process 29(8):2052–2064. doi: 10.1002/hyp.10354Llopis-Albert C, Palacios-Marqués D, Merigó JM (2014) A coupled stochastic inverse-management framework for dealing with nonpoint agriculture pollution under groundwater parameter uncertainty. J Hydrol 511:10–16. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.021Llopis-Albert C, Merigó JM, Palacios-Marqués D (2015) Structure adaptation in stochastic inverse methods for integrating information. Water Resour Manage 29(1):95–107. doi: 10.1007/s11269-014-0829-2Llopis-Albert C, Merigó JM, Xu Y (2016) A coupled stochastic inverse/sharp interface seawater intrusion approach for coastal aquifers under groundwater parameter uncertainty. J Hydrol 540:774–783. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.06.065McDonald MG and Harbaugh AW (1988) A modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater flow model. US geological survey technical manual of water resources investigation, Book 6, US geological survey, Reston, Virginia, 586Molina JL, Pulido-Velazquez M, Llopis-Albert C, Peña-Haro S (2013) Stochastic hydro-economic model for groundwater quality management using Bayesian networks. Water Sci Technol 67(3):579–586. doi: 10.2166/wst.2012.598Peña-Haro S, Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez M (2010) Fertilizer standards for controlling groundwater nitrate pollution from agriculture: El Salobral-Los Llanos case study, Spain. J Hydrol 392:174–187. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.08.006Peña-Haro S, Pulido-Velazquez M, Llopis-Albert C (2011) Stochastic hydro-economic modeling for optimal management of agricultural groundwater nitrate pollution under hydraulic conductivity uncertainty. Environ Model Softw 26(8):999–1008. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.02.010Pulido-Velazquez D, Llopis-Albert C, Peña-Haro S, Pulido-Velazquez M (2011) Efficient conceptual model for simulating the effect of aquifer heterogeneity on natural groundwater discharge to rivers. Adv Water Resour 34(11):1377–1389. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.07.010Reichert P, Borsuk M, Hostmann M, Schweizer S, Spörri C, Tockner K, Truffer B (2005) Concepts of decision support for river rehabilitation. Environ Model Softw 22:188–201Wright SAL, Fritsch O (2011) Operationalising active involvement in the EU water framework directive: why, when and how? Ecol Econ 70(12):2268–2274Zhou H, Gómez-Hernández JJ, Li L (2014) Inverse methods in hydrogeology: evolution and recent trends. Adv Water Resour 63:22–37. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.10.01

Endocytosis as a biological response in receptor pharmacology: evaluation by fluorescence microscopy

The activation of G-protein coupled receptors by agonist compounds results in diverse biological responses in cells, such as the endocytosis process consisting in the translocation of receptors from the plasma membrane to the cytoplasm within internalizing vesicles or endosomes. In order to functionally evaluate endocytosis events resulted from pharmacological responses, we have developed an image analysis method -the Q-Endosomes algorithm- that specifically discriminates the fluorescent signal originated at endosomes from that one observed at the plasma membrane in images obtained from living cells by fluorescence microscopy. Mu opioid (MOP) receptor tagged at the carboxy-terminus with yellow fluorescent protein (YFP) and permanently expressed in HEK293 cells was used as experimental model to validate this methodology. Time-course experiments performed with several agonists resulted in different sigmoid curves depending on the drug used to initiate MOP receptor endocytosis. Thus, endocytosis resulting from the simultaneous activation of co-expressed MOP and serotonin 5-HT2C receptors by morphine plus serotonin was significantly different, in kinetics as well as in maximal response parameters, from the one caused by DAMGO, sufentanyl or methadone. Therefore, this analytical tool permits the pharmacological characterization of receptor endocytosis in living cells with functional and temporal resolution

Exposure to N-Ethyl-N-Nitrosourea in Adult Mice Alters Structural and Functional Integrity of Neurogenic Sites

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that prenatal exposure to the mutagen N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea (ENU), a N-nitroso compound (NOC) found in the environment, disrupts developmental neurogenesis and alters memory formation. Previously, we showed that postnatal ENU treatment induced lasting deficits in proliferation of neural progenitors in the subventricular zone (SVZ), the main neurogenic region in the adult mouse brain. The present study is aimed to examine, in mice exposed to ENU, both the structural features of adult neurogenic sites, incorporating the dentate gyrus (DG), and the behavioral performance in tasks sensitive to manipulations of adult neurogenesis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 2-month old mice received 5 doses of ENU and were sacrificed 45 days after treatment. Then, an ultrastructural analysis of the SVZ and DG was performed to determine cellular composition in these regions, confirming a significant alteration. After bromodeoxyuridine injections, an S-phase exogenous marker, the immunohistochemical analysis revealed a deficit in proliferation and a decreased recruitment of newly generated cells in neurogenic areas of ENU-treated animals. Behavioral effects were also detected after ENU-exposure, observing impairment in odor discrimination task (habituation-dishabituation test) and a deficit in spatial memory (Barnes maze performance), two functions primarily related to the SVZ and the DG regions, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results demonstrate that postnatal exposure to ENU produces severe disruption of adult neurogenesis in the SVZ and DG, as well as strong behavioral impairments. These findings highlight the potential risk of environmental NOC-exposure for the development of neural and behavioral deficits

Stochastic upscaling of hydrodynamic dispersion and retardation factor in a physically and chemically heterogeneous tropical soil

[EN] Stochastic upscaling of flow and reactive solute transport in a tropical soil is performed using real data collected in the laboratory. Upscaling of hydraulic conductivity, longitudinal hydrodynamic dispersion, and retardation factor were done using three different approaches of varying complexity. How uncertainty propagates after upscaling was also studied. The results show that upscaling must be taken into account if a good reproduction of the flow and transport behavior of a given soil is to be attained when modeled at larger than laboratory scales. The results also show that arrival time uncertainty was well reproduced after solute transport upscaling. This work represents a first demonstration of flow and reactive transport upscaling in a soil based on laboratory data. It also shows how simple upscaling methods can be incorporated into daily modeling practice using commercial flow and transport codes.The authors thank the financial support by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) (Project 401441/2014-8). The doctoral fellowship award to the first author by the Coordination of Improvement of Higher Level Personnel (CAPES) is acknowledged. The first author also thanks the international mobility grant awarded by CNPq, through the Sciences Without Borders program (Grant Number: 200597/2015-9). The international mobility grant awarded by Santander Mobility in cooperation with the University of Sao Paulo is also acknowledged. DHI-WASI is gratefully thanked for providing a FEFLOW license.Almeida De-Godoy, V.; Zuquette, L.; Gómez-Hernández, JJ. (2019). Stochastic upscaling of hydrodynamic dispersion and retardation factor in a physically and chemically heterogeneous tropical soil. 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Denial of long-term issues with agriculture on tropical peatlands will have devastating consequences

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How can remote sensing contribute in groundwater modeling?

ISSN:1431-2174ISSN:1435-015