Development and validation of a simplified score to predict neonatal mortality risk among neonates weighing 2000 g or less (NMR-2000): an analysis using data from the UK and The Gambia.

BACKGROUND: 78% of neonatal deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia, among which, more than 80% are in low birthweight babies. Existing neonatal mortality risk scores have primarily been developed for high-resource settings. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a score that is practicable for low-income and middle-income countries to predict in-hospital mortality among neonates born weighing 2000 g or less using datasets from the UK and The Gambia. METHODS: This analysis used retrospective data held in the UK National Neonatal Research Database from 187 neonatal units, and data from the Edward Francis Small Teaching Hospital (EFSTH), Banjul, The Gambia. In the UK dataset, neonates were excluded if birthweight was more than 2000 g; if the neonate was admitted aged more than 6 h or following discharge; if the neonate was stillborn; if the neonate died in delivery room; or if they were moribund on admission. The Gambian dataset included all neonates weighing less than 2000 g who were admitted between May 1, 2018, and Sept 30, 2019, who were screened for but not enrolled in the Early Kangaroo Mother Care Trial. 18 studies were reviewed to generate a list of 84 potential parameters. We derived a model to score in-hospital neonatal mortality risk using data from 55 029 admissions to a random sample of neonatal units in England and Wales from Jan 1, 2010, to Dec 31, 2016. All candidate variables were included in a complete multivariable model, which was progressively simplified using reverse stepwise selection. We validated the new score (NMR-2000) on 40 329 admissions to the remaining units between the same dates and 14 818 admissions to all units from Jan 1, to Dec 31, 2017. We also validated the score on 550 neonates admitted to the EFSTH in The Gambia. FINDINGS: 18 candidate variables were selected for inclusion in the modelling process. The final model included three parameters: birthweight, admission oxygen saturation, and highest level of respiratory support within 24 h of birth. NMR-2000 had very good discrimination and goodness-of-fit across the UK samples, with a c-index of 0·8859-0·8930 and a Brier score of 0·0232-0·0271. Among Gambian neonates, the model had a c-index of 0·8170 and a Brier score of 0·1688. Predictive ability of the simplified integer score was similar to the model using regression coefficients, with c-indices of 0·8903 in the UK full validation sample and 0·8082 in the Gambian validation sample. INTERPRETATION: NMR-2000 is a validated mortality risk score for hospitalised neonates weighing 2000 g or less in settings where pulse oximetry is available. The score is accurate and simplified for bedside use. NMR-2000 requires further validation using a larger dataset from low-income and middle-income countries but has the potential to improve individual and population-level neonatal care resource allocation. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development; Wellcome Trust; and Joint Global Health Trials scheme of Department of Health and Social Care, Department for International Development, Medical Research Council, and Wellcome Trust

Theories of behaviour change synthesised into a set of theoretical groupings: Introducing a thematic series on the Theoretical Domains Framework

Behaviour change is key to increasing the uptake of evidence into healthcare practice. Designing behaviour-change interventions first requires problem analysis, ideally informed by theory. Yet the large number of partly overlapping theories of behaviour makes it difficult to select the most appropriate theory. The need for an overarching theoretical framework of behaviour change was addressed in research in which 128 explanatory constructs from 33 theories of behaviour were identified and grouped. The resulting Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) appears to be a helpful basis for investigating implementation problems. Research groups in several countries have conducted TDF-based studies. It seems timely to bring together the experience of these teams in a thematic series to demonstrate further applications and to report key developments. This overview article describes the TDF, provides a brief critique of the framework, and introduces this thematic series. In a brief review to assess the extent of TDF-based research, we identified 133 papers that cite the framework. Of these, 17 used the TDF as the basis for empirical studies to explore health professionals’ behaviour. The identified papers provide evidence of the impact of the TDF on implementation research. Two major strengths of the framework are its theoretical coverage and its capacity to elicit beliefs that could signify key mediators of behaviour change. The TDF provides a useful conceptual basis for assessing implementation problems, designing interventions to enhance healthcare practice, and understanding behaviour-change processes. We discuss limitations and research challenges and introduce papers in this series

Resolving the ancestry of Austronesian-speaking populations

There are two very different interpretations of the prehistory of Island Southeast Asia (ISEA), with genetic evidence invoked in support of both. The “out-of-Taiwan” model proposes a major Late Holocene expansion of Neolithic Austronesian speakers from Taiwan. An alternative, proposing that Late Glacial/postglacial sea-level rises triggered largely autochthonous dispersals, accounts for some otherwise enigmatic genetic patterns, but fails to explain the Austronesian language dispersal. Combining mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), Y-chromosome and genome-wide data, we performed the most comprehensive analysis of the region to date, obtaining highly consistent results across all three systems and allowing us to reconcile the models. We infer a primarily common ancestry for Taiwan/ISEA populations established before the Neolithic, but also detected clear signals of two minor Late Holocene migrations, probably representing Neolithic input from both Mainland Southeast Asia and South China, via Taiwan. This latter may therefore have mediated the Austronesian language dispersal, implying small-scale migration and language shift rather than large-scale expansion

Space Telescope and Optical Reverberation Mapping Project. V. Optical Spectroscopic Campaign and Emission-line Analysis for NGC 5548

We present the results of an optical spectroscopic monitoring program targeting NGC 5548 as part of a larger multiwavelength reverberation mapping campaign. The campaign spanned 6 months and achieved an almost daily cadence with observations from five ground-based telescopes. The Hβ and He ii λ4686 broad emission-line light curves lag that of the 5100 +-optical continuum by 4.17+0.36-0.36 and 0.79+0.35-0.34 days, respectively. The Hβ lag relative to the 1158 ultraviolet continuum light curve measured by the Hubble Space Telescope is ∼50% longer than that measured against the optical continuum, and the lag difference is consistent with the observed lag between the optical and ultraviolet continua. This suggests that the characteristic radius of the broad-line region is ∼50% larger than the value inferred from optical data alone. We also measured velocity-resolved emission-line lags for Hβ and found a complex velocity-lag structure with shorter lags in the line wings, indicative of a broad-line region dominated by Keplerian motion. The responses of both the Hβ and He ii emission lines to the driving continuum changed significantly halfway through the campaign, a phenomenon also observed for C iv, Lyα, He ii(+O iii]), and Si iv(+O iv]) during the same monitoring period. Finally, given the optical luminosity of NGC 5548 during our campaign, the measured Hβ lag is a factor of five shorter than the expected value implied by the R BLR-L AGN relation based on the past behavior of NGC 5548

Characterization of Nucleotide Misincorporation Patterns in the Iceman's Mitochondrial DNA

BACKGROUND: The degradation of DNA represents one of the main issues in the genetic analysis of archeological specimens. In the recent years, a particular kind of post-mortem DNA modification giving rise to nucleotide misincorporation ("miscoding lesions") has been the object of extensive investigations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To improve our knowledge regarding the nature and incidence of ancient DNA nucleotide misincorporations, we have utilized 6,859 (629,975 bp) mitochondrial (mt) DNA sequences obtained from the 5,350-5,100-years-old, freeze-desiccated human mummy popularly known as the Tyrolean Iceman or Otzi. To generate the sequences, we have applied a mixed PCR/pyrosequencing procedure allowing one to obtain a particularly high sequence coverage. As a control, we have produced further 8,982 (805,155 bp) mtDNA sequences from a contemporary specimen using the same system and starting from the same template copy number of the ancient sample. From the analysis of the nucleotide misincorporation rate in ancient, modern, and putative contaminant sequences, we observed that the rate of misincorporation is significantly lower in modern and putative contaminant sequence datasets than in ancient sequences. In contrast, type 2 transitions represent the vast majority (85%) of the observed nucleotide misincorporations in ancient sequences. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides a further contribution to the knowledge of nucleotide misincorporation patterns in DNA sequences obtained from freeze-preserved archeological specimens. In the Iceman system, ancient sequences can be clearly distinguished from contaminants on the basis of nucleotide misincorporation rates. This observation confirms a previous identification of the ancient mummy sequences made on a purely phylogenetical basis. The present investigation provides further indication that the majority of ancient DNA damage is reflected by type 2 (cytosine-->thymine/guanine-->adenine) transitions and that type 1 transitions are essentially PCR artifacts

Impact of Tai Chi exercise on multiple fracture-related risk factors in post-menopausal osteopenic women: a pilot pragmatic, randomized trial

Background: Tai Chi (TC) is a mind-body exercise that shows potential as an effective and safe intervention for preventing fall-related fractures in the elderly. Few randomized trials have simultaneously evaluated TC's potential to reduce bone loss and improve fall-predictive balance parameters in osteopenic women. Methods: In a pragmatic randomized trial, 86 post-menopausal osteopenic women, aged 45-70, were recruited from community clinics. Women were assigned to either nine months of TC training plus usual care (UC) vs. UC alone. Primary outcomes were changes between baseline and nine months of bone mineral density (BMD) of the proximal femur and lumbar spine (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry) and serum markers of bone resorption and formation. Secondary outcomes included quality of life. In a subsample (n = 16), quiet standing fall-predictive sway parameters and clinical balance tests were also assessed. Both intent-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were employed. Results: For BMD, no intent-to-treat analyses were statistically significant; however, per protocol analyses (i.e., only including TC participants who completed $\geq$ 75% training requirements) of femoral neck BMD changes were significantly different between TC and UC (+0.04 vs. -0.98%; P = 0.05). Changes in bone formation markers and physical domains of quality of life were also more favorable in per protocol TC vs. UC (P = 0.05). Changes in sway parameters were significantly improved by TC vs. UC (average sway velocity, P = 0.027; anterior-posterior sway range, P = 0.014). Clinical measures of balance and function showed non-significant trends in favor of TC. Conclusions: TC training offered through existing community-based programs is a safe, feasible, and promising intervention for reducing multiple fracture risks. Our results affirm the value of a more definitive, longer-term trial of TC for osteopenic women, adequately powered to detect clinically relevant effects of TC on attenuation of BMD loss and reduction of fall risk in this population

Space Telescope and Optical Reverberation Mapping Project. IX. Velocity–Delay Maps for Broad Emission Lines in NGC 5548

In this contribution, we achieve the primary goal of the active galactic nucleus (AGN) STORM campaign by recovering velocity–delay maps for the prominent broad emission lines (Lyα, C iv, He ii, and Hβ) in the spectrum of NGC 5548. These are the most detailed velocity–delay maps ever obtained for an AGN, providing unprecedented information on the geometry, ionization structure, and kinematics of the broad-line region. Virial envelopes enclosing the emission-line responses show that the reverberating gas is bound to the black hole. A stratified ionization structure is evident. The He ii response inside 5–10 lt-day has a broad single-peaked velocity profile. The Lyα, C iv, and Hβ responses extend from inside 2 to outside 20 lt-day, with double peaks at ±2500 km s−1 in the 10–20 lt-day delay range. An incomplete ellipse in the velocity–delay plane is evident in Hβ. We interpret the maps in terms of a Keplerian disk with a well-defined outer rim at R = 20 lt-day. The far-side response is weaker than that from the near side. The line-center delay $\tau =(R/c)(1-\sin i)\approx 5$ days gives the inclination i ≈ 45°. The inferred black hole mass is MBH ≈ 7 × 107 M⊙. In addition to reverberations, the fit residuals confirm that emission-line fluxes are depressed during the "BLR Holiday" identified in previous work. Moreover, a helical "Barber-Pole" pattern, with stripes moving from red to blue across the C iv and Lyα line profiles, suggests azimuthal structure rotating with a 2 yr period that may represent precession or orbital motion of inner-disk structures casting shadows on the emission-line region farther out

Tai Chi for osteopenic women: design and rationale of a pragmatic randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Post-menopausal osteopenic women are at increased risk for skeletal fractures. Current osteopenia treatment guidelines include exercise, however, optimal exercise regimens for attenuating bone mineral density (BMD) loss, or for addressing other fracture-related risk factors (e.g. poor balance, decreased muscle strength) are not well-defined. Tai Chi is an increasingly popular weight bearing mind-body exercise that has been reported to positively impact BMD dynamics and improve postural control, however, current evidence is inconclusive. This study will determine the effectiveness of Tai Chi in reducing rates of bone turnover in post-menopausal osteopenic women, compared with standard care, and will preliminarily explore biomechanical processes that might inform how Tai Chi impacts BMD and associated fracture risks.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>A total of 86 post-menopausal women, aged 45-70y, T-score of the hip and/or spine -1.0 and -2.5, have been recruited from primary care clinics of a large healthcare system based in Boston. They have been randomized to a group-based 9-month Tai Chi program plus standard care or to standard care only. A unique aspect of this trial is its pragmatic design, which allows participants randomized to Tai Chi to choose from a pre-screened list of community-based Tai Chi programs. Interviewers masked to participants' treatment group assess outcomes at baseline and 3 and 9 months after randomization. Primary outcomes are serum markers of bone resorption (C-terminal cross linking telopeptide of type I collagen), bone formation (osteocalcin), and BMD of the lumbar spine and proximal femur (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry). Secondary outcomes include health-related quality-of-life, exercise behavior, and psychological well-being. In addition, kinetic and kinematic characterization of gait, standing, and rising from a chair are assessed in subset of participants (n = 16) to explore the feasibility of modeling skeletal mechanical loads and postural control as mediators of fracture risk.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Results of this study will provide preliminary evidence regarding the value of Tai Chi as an intervention for decreasing fracture risk in osteopenic women. They will also inform the feasibility, value and potential limitations related to the use of pragmatic designs for the study of Tai Chi and related mind-body exercise. If the results are positive, this will help focus future, more in-depth, research on the most promising potential mechanisms of action identified by this study.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>This trial is registered in Clinical Trials.gov, with the ID number of NCT01039012.</p

The mammals of Angola

Scientific investigations on the mammals of Angola started over 150 years ago, but information remains scarce and scattered, with only one recent published account. Here we provide a synthesis of the mammals of Angola based on a thorough survey of primary and grey literature, as well as recent unpublished records. We present a short history of mammal research, and provide brief information on each species known to occur in the country. Particular attention is given to endemic and near endemic species. We also provide a zoogeographic outline and information on the conservation of Angolan mammals. We found confirmed records for 291 native species, most of which from the orders Rodentia (85), Chiroptera (73), Carnivora (39), and Cetartiodactyla (33). There is a large number of endemic and near endemic species, most of which are rodents or bats. The large diversity of species is favoured by the wide range of habitats with contrasting environmental conditions, while endemism tends to be associated with unique physiographic settings such as the Angolan Escarpment. The mammal fauna of Angola includes 2 Critically Endangered, 2 Endangered, 11 Vulnerable, and 14 Near-Threatened species at the global scale. There are also 12 data deficient species, most of which are endemics or near endemics to the countryinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

In pursuit of P2X3 antagonists: novel therapeutics for chronic pain and afferent sensitization

Treating pain by inhibiting ATP activation of P2X3-containing receptors heralds an exciting new approach to pain management, and Afferent's program marks the vanguard in a new class of drugs poised to explore this approach to meet the significant unmet needs in pain management. P2X3 receptor subunits are expressed predominately and selectively in so-called C- and Aδ-fiber primary afferent neurons in most tissues and organ systems, including skin, joints, and hollow organs, suggesting a high degree of specificity to the pain sensing system in the human body. P2X3 antagonists block the activation of these fibers by ATP and stand to offer an alternative approach to the management of pain and discomfort. In addition, P2X3 is expressed pre-synaptically at central terminals of C-fiber afferent neurons, where ATP further sensitizes transmission of painful signals. As a result of the selectivity of the expression of P2X3, there is a lower likelihood of adverse effects in the brain, gastrointestinal, or cardiovascular tissues, effects which remain limiting factors for many existing pain therapeutics. In the periphery, ATP (the factor that triggers P2X3 receptor activation) can be released from various cells as a result of tissue inflammation, injury or stress, as well as visceral organ distension, and stimulate these local nociceptors. The P2X3 receptor rationale has aroused a formidable level of investigation producing many reports that clarify the potential role of ATP as a pain mediator, in chronic sensitized states in particular, and has piqued the interest of pharmaceutical companies. P2X receptor-mediated afferent activation has been implicated in inflammatory, visceral, and neuropathic pain states, as well as in airways hyperreactivity, migraine, itch, and cancer pain. It is well appreciated that oftentimes new mechanisms translate poorly from models into clinical efficacy and effectiveness; however, the breadth of activity seen from P2X3 inhibition in models offers a realistic chance that this novel mechanism to inhibit afferent nerve sensitization may find its place in the sun and bring some merciful relief to the torment of persistent discomfort and pain. The development philosophy at Afferent is to conduct proof of concept patient studies and best identify target patient groups that may benefit from this new intervention