A dynamical trichotomy for structured populations experiencing positive density-dependence in stochastic environments

Positive density-dependence occurs when individuals experience increased survivorship, growth, or reproduction with increased population densities. Mechanisms leading to these positive relationships include mate limitation, saturating predation risk, and cooperative breeding and foraging. Individuals within these populations may differ in age, size, or geographic location and thereby structure these populations. Here, I study structured population models accounting for positive density-dependence and environmental stochasticity i.e. random fluctuations in the demographic rates of the population. Under an accessibility assumption (roughly, stochastic fluctuations can lead to populations getting small and large), these models are shown to exhibit a dynamical trichotomy: (i) for all initial conditions, the population goes asymptotically extinct with probability one, (ii) for all positive initial conditions, the population persists and asymptotically exhibits unbounded growth, and (iii) for all positive initial conditions, there is a positive probability of asymptotic extinction and a complementary positive probability of unbounded growth. The main results are illustrated with applications to spatially structured populations with an Allee effect and age-structured populations experiencing mate limitation

Experimental investigation of the impact of elastic turbulence on heat transfer in a serpentine channel

AbstractThe characteristics of convective heat transfer and fluid flow within a square cross-section serpentine channel are experimentally studied for two groups of polymeric viscoelastic fluids, shear-thinning and constant-viscosity Boger solutions. The elastic turbulence can be created by the non-linear interaction between elastic stresses generated within the flowing high-molecular-weight polymer solutions and the streamline curvature. In order to confirm elastic turbulence in this geometry, pressure drop across the serpentine channel was measured. The findings indicate that the measurements of non-dimensional pressure-drop increase approximately from 1.48 to 4.82 for viscoelastic solutions compared with the Newtonian fluid over a range of Weissenberg number from 4 to 211. The convective heat transfer enhances due to elastic turbulence by up to 200% for low polymer concentration (dilute) solutions and reaches up to 380% for higher polymer concentration (semi-dilute) solutions under creeping-flow conditions in comparison to that achieved by the equivalent Newtonian fluid flow at low Graetz number (up to 14.6). We propose a modified Weissenberg number which is able to approximately collapse the mean Nusselt number data for each solution group

Harnessing Higher-Order (Meta-)Logic to Represent and Reason with Complex Ethical Theories

The computer-mechanization of an ambitious explicit ethical theory, Gewirth's Principle of Generic Consistency, is used to showcase an approach for representing and reasoning with ethical theories exhibiting complex logical features like alethic and deontic modalities, indexicals, higher-order quantification, among others. Harnessing the high expressive power of Church's type theory as a meta-logic to semantically embed a combination of quantified non-classical logics, our work pushes existing boundaries in knowledge representation and reasoning. We demonstrate that intuitive encodings of complex ethical theories and their automation on the computer are no longer antipodes.Comment: 14 page

The stroke oxygen pilot study: a randomized control trial of the effects of routine oxygen supplementation early after acute stroke--effect on key outcomes at six months

Introduction: Post-stroke hypoxia is common, and may adversely affect outcome. We have recently shown that oxygen supplementation may improve early neurological recovery. Here, we report the six-month outcomes of this pilot study. Methods: Patients with a clinical diagnosis of acute stroke were randomized within 24 h of admission to oxygen supplementation at 2 or 3 L/min for 72 h or to control treatment (room air). Outcomes (see below) were assessed by postal questionnaire at 6 months. Analysis was by intention-to-treat, and statistical significance was set at p#0.05. Results: Out of 301 patients randomized two refused/withdrew consent and 289 (148 in the oxygen and 141 in the control group) were included in the analysis: males 44%, 51%; mean (SD) age 73 (12), 71 (12); median (IQR) National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score 6 (3, 10), 5 (3, 10) for the two groups respectively. At six months 22 (15%) patients in the oxygen group and 20 (14%) in the control group had died; mean survival in both groups was 162 days (p= 0.99). Median (IQR) scores for the primary outcome, the modified Rankin Scale, were 3 (1, 5) and 3 (1, 4) for the oxygen and control groups respectively. The covariate-adjusted odds ratio was 1.04 (95% CI 0.67, 1.60), indicating that the odds of a lower (i.e. better) score were non-significantly higher in the oxygen group (p= 0.86). The mean differences in the ability to perform basic (Barthel Index) and extended activities of daily living (NEADL), and quality of life (EuroQol) were also non-significant. Conclusions: None of the key outcomes differed at 6 months between the groups. Although not statistically significant and generally of small magnitude, the effects were predominantly in favour of the oxygen group; a larger trial, powered to show differences in longer-term functional outcomes, is now on-going. Trial Registration: Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN12362720; Eudract.ema.europa.eu 2004-001866-4

A review of the methodological features of systematic reviews in maternal medicine

Background In maternal medicine, research evidence is scattered making it difficult to access information for clinical decision making. Systematic reviews of good methodological quality are essential to provide valid inferences and to produce usable evidence summaries to guide management. This review assesses the methodological features of existing systematic reviews in maternal medicine, comparing Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews in maternal medicine. Methods Medline, Embase, Database of Reviews of Effectiveness (DARE) and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) were searched for relevant reviews published between 2001 and 2006. We selected those reviews in which a minimum of two databases were searched and the primary outcome was related to the maternal condition. The selected reviews were assessed for information on framing of question, literature search and methods of review. Results Out of 2846 citations, 68 reviews were selected. Among these, 39 (57%) were Cochrane reviews. Most of the reviews (50/68, 74%) evaluated therapeutic interventions. Overall, 54/68 (79%) addressed a focussed question. Although 64/68 (94%) reviews had a detailed search description, only 17/68 (25%) searched without language restriction. 32/68 (47%) attempted to include unpublished data and 11/68 (16%) assessed for the risk of missing studies quantitatively. The reviews had deficiencies in the assessment of validity of studies and exploration for heterogeneity. When compared to Cochrane reviews, other reviews were significantly inferior in specifying questions (OR 20.3, 95% CI 1.1–381.3, p = 0.04), framing focussed questions (OR 30.9, 95% CI 3.7- 256.2, p = 0.001), use of unpublished data (OR 5.6, 95% CI 1.9–16.4, p = 0.002), assessment for heterogeneity (OR 38.1, 95%CI 2.1, 688.2, p = 0.01) and use of meta-analyses (OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.3–10.8, p = 0.02). Conclusion This study identifies areas which have a strong influence on maternal morbidity and mortality but lack good quality systematic reviews. Overall quality of the existing systematic reviews was variable. Cochrane reviews were of better quality as compared to other reviews. There is a need for good quality systematic reviews to inform practice in maternal medicine