Nonidentifiability of the Source of Intrinsic Noise in Gene Expression from Single-Burst Data

Over the last few years, experimental data on the fluctuations in gene activity between individual cells and within the same cell over time have confirmed that gene expression is a “noisy” process. This variation is in part due to the small number of molecules taking part in some of the key reactions that are involved in gene expression. One of the consequences of this is that protein production often occurs in bursts, each due to a single promoter or transcription factor binding event. Recently, the distribution of the number of proteins produced in such bursts has been experimentally measured, offering a unique opportunity to study the relative importance of different sources of noise in gene expression. Here, we provide a derivation of the theoretical probability distribution of these bursts for a wide variety of different models of gene expression. We show that there is a good fit between our theoretical distribution and that obtained from two different published experimental datasets. We then prove that, irrespective of the details of the model, the burst size distribution is always geometric and hence determined by a single parameter. Many different combinations of the biochemical rates for the constituent reactions of both transcription and translation will therefore lead to the same experimentally observed burst size distribution. It is thus impossible to identify different sources of fluctuations purely from protein burst size data or to use such data to estimate all of the model parameters. We explore methods of inferring these values when additional types of experimental data are available

On the spontaneous stochastic dynamics of a single gene: complexity of the molecular interplay at the promoter

International audienceBACKGROUND: Gene promoters can be in various epigenetic states and undergo interactions with many molecules in a highly transient, probabilistic and combinatorial way, resulting in a complex global dynamics as observed experimentally. However, models of stochastic gene expression commonly consider promoter activity as a two-state on/off system. We consider here a model of single-gene stochastic expression that can represent arbitrary prokaryotic or eukaryotic promoters, based on the combinatorial interplay between molecules and epigenetic factors, including energy-dependent remodeling and enzymatic activities. RESULTS: We show that, considering the mere molecular interplay at the promoter, a single-gene can demonstrate an elaborate spontaneous stochastic activity (eg. multi-periodic multi-relaxation dynamics), similar to what is known to occur at the gene-network level. Characterizing this generic model with indicators of dynamic and steady-state properties (including power spectra and distributions), we reveal the potential activity of any promoter and its influence on gene expression. In particular, we can reproduce, based on biologically relevant mechanisms, the strongly periodic patterns of promoter occupancy by transcription factors (TF) and chromatin remodeling as observed experimentally on eukaryotic promoters. Moreover, we link several of its characteristics to properties of the underlying biochemical system. The model can also be used to identify behaviors of interest (eg. stochasticity induced by high TF concentration) on minimal systems and to test their relevance in larger and more realistic systems. We finally show that TF concentrations can regulate many aspects of the stochastic activity with a considerable flexibility and complexity. CONCLUSIONS: This tight promoter-mediated control of stochasticity may constitute a powerful asset for the cell. Remarkably, a strongly periodic activity that demonstrates a complex TF concentration-dependent control is obtained when molecular interactions have typical characteristics observed on eukaryotic promoters (high mobility, functional redundancy, many alternate states/pathways). We also show that this regime results in a direct and indirect energetic cost. Finally, this model can constitute a framework for unifying various experimental approaches. Collectively, our results show that a gene - the basic building block of complex regulatory networks - can itself demonstrate a significantly complex behavior

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified