Predicting population-level risk effects of predation from the responses of individuals.

Fear of predation produces large effects on prey population dynamics through indirect risk effects that can cause even greater impacts than direct predation mortality. As yet, there is no general theoretical framework for predicting when and how these population risk effects will arise in specific prey populations, meaning that there is often little consideration given to the key role predator risk effects can play in understanding conservation and wildlife management challenges. Here, we propose that population predator risk effects can be predicted through an extension of individual risk trade-off theory and show for the first time that this is the case in a wild vertebrate system. Specifically, we demonstrate that the timing (in specific months of the year), occurrence (at low food availability), cause (reduction in individual energy reserves), and type (starvation mortality) of a population-level predator risk effect can be successfully predicted from individual responses using a widely applicable theoretical framework (individual-based risk trade-off theory). Our results suggest that individual-based risk trade-off frameworks could allow a wide range of population-level predator risk effects to be predicted from existing ecological theory, which would enable risk effects to be more routinely integrated into consideration of population processes and in applied situations such as conservation

Long-term durability of alumina ceramic heads in THA

Background: The optimal type of bearing for hip arthroplasty remains a matter of debate. Ceramic-on-polyethylene (CoP) bearings are frequently used in younger and more active patients to reduce wear and increase biocompatibility compared to Metal-on-Polyethylene (MoP) bearings. However, in comparison to metal heads, the fracture risk of ceramic heads is higher. In addition, ceramic head fractures pose a serious complication which often necessitates major revision surgery. To date, there are no long-term data (>20 years of follow-up) reporting fracture rates of the ceramic femoral heads in CoP bearings. The purpose of this research was to investigate long-term CoP fracture rate. Methods: We evaluated the clinical and radiographic results of 348 cementless THAs treated with 2nd generation Biolox® Al2O3 Ceramic-on-Polyethylene (CoP) bearings consecutively implanted between January 1985 and December 1989. The mean age at implantation was 57 years. The patients were followed for a minimum of 20 years. At the final 111 had died, and 5 were lost to follow-up. The cumulative incidence of ceramic head fractures in the long-term was estimated using a competing risk analysis. Results: The cumulative incidence of ceramic head fracture after 22-years was estimated with a competing risk analysis at 0.29% after 22-years (SE = 2.09%; 95% - CI: 0.03-1.5%). The radiographic analysis revealed no impending failures at final follow-up. Discussion/Conclusion: The fracture rate of second-generation ceramic heads using a CoP articulation remains very low into the third decade after cementless THA

Impaction bone grafting of the acetabulum at hip revision using a mix of bone chips and a biphasic porous ceramic bone graft substitute: Good outcome in 43 patients followed for a mean of 2 years

Background and purpose One of the greatest problems of revision hip arthroplasty is dealing with lost bone stock. Good results have been obtained with impaction grafting of allograft bone. However, there have been problems of infection, reproducibility, antigenicity, stability, availability of bone, and cost. Thus, alternatives to allograft have been sought. BoneSave is a biphasic porous ceramic specifically designed for use in impaction grafting. BoneSave is 80% tricalcium phosphate and 20% hydroxyapatite. Previous in vitro and in vivo studies have yielded good results using mixtures of allograft and BoneSave, when compared with allograft alone. This study is the first reported human clinical trial of BoneSave in impaction grafting

Spatial Models of Abundance and Habitat Preferences of Commerson’s and Peale’s Dolphin in Southern Patagonian Waters

Funding: This research was possible with the support of the Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Funding for travel to and accommodation for NAD in Aberdeen, Scotland was provided by CONICET and Cetacean Society International. The work of NAD was part of a postdoctoral fellowship funded by CONICET. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Seasonality in Human Zoonotic Enteric Diseases: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND: Although seasonality is a defining characteristic of many infectious diseases, few studies have described and compared seasonal patterns across diseases globally, impeding our understanding of putative mechanisms. Here, we review seasonal patterns across five enteric zoonotic diseases: campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, vero-cytotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC), cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in the context of two primary drivers of seasonality: (i) environmental effects on pathogen occurrence and pathogen-host associations and (ii) population characteristics/behaviour. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We systematically reviewed published literature from 1960-2010, resulting in the review of 86 studies across the five diseases. The Gini coefficient compared temporal variations in incidence across diseases and the monthly seasonality index characterised timing of seasonal peaks. Consistent seasonal patterns across transnational boundaries, albeit with regional variations was observed. The bacterial diseases all had a distinct summer peak, with identical Gini values for campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis (0.22) and a higher index for VTEC (Gini  0.36). Cryptosporidiosis displayed a bi-modal peak with spring and summer highs and the most marked temporal variation (Gini = 0.39). Giardiasis showed a relatively small summer increase and was the least variable (Gini = 0.18). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Seasonal variation in enteric zoonotic diseases is ubiquitous, with regional variations highlighting complex environment-pathogen-host interactions. Results suggest that proximal environmental influences and host population dynamics, together with distal, longer-term climatic variability could have important direct and indirect consequences for future enteric disease risk. Additional understanding of the concerted influence of these factors on disease patterns may improve assessment and prediction of enteric disease burden in temperate, developed countries

Risk factors for moderate and severe persistent pain in patients undergoing total knee and hip arthroplasty : a prospective predictive study

Persistent post-surgical pain (PPSP) is a major clinical problem with significant individual, social and health care costs. The aim of this study was to examine the joint role of demographic, clinical and psychological risk factors in the development of moderate and severe PPSP after Total Knee and Hip Arthroplasty (TKA and THA, respectively). This was a prospective study wherein a consecutive sample of 92 patients were assessed 24 hours before (T1), 48 hours after (T2) and 4-6 months (T3) after surgery. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of moderate and severe levels of PPSP. Four to six months after TKA and THA, 54 patients (58.7%) reported none or mild pain (Numerical Rating Scale: NRS 3). In the final multivariate hierarchical logistic regression analyses, illness representations concerning the condition leading to surgery (osteoarthritis), such as a chronic timeline perception of the disease, emerged as a significant predictor of PPSP. Additionally, post-surgical anxiety also showed a predictive role in the development of PPSP. Pre-surgical pain was the most significant clinical predictive factor and, as expected, undergoing TKA was associated with greater odds of PPSP development than THA. The findings on PPSP predictors after major joint arthroplasties can guide clinical practice in terms of considering cognitive and emotional factors, together with clinical factors, in planning acute pain management before and after surgery.This work was supported by a Project grant (PTDC/SAU-NEU/108557/2008) and by a PhD grant (SFRH/BD/36368/2007) from the Portuguese Foundation of Science and Technology, COMPETE and FEDER. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript