Fundamental Volatility is Regime Specific

A widely held notion holds that freely floating exchange rates are excessively volatile when judged against fundamentals and when moving from fixed to floating exchange rates. We re-examine the data and conclude that the disparity between the fundamentals and exchange rate volatility is more apparent than real, especially when the Deutsche Mark, rather than the dollar is chosen as the numeraire currency. We also argue, and indeed demonstrate, that in cross-regime comparisons one has to account for certain ‘missing variables’ which compensate for the fundamental variables’ volatility under fixed rates.

Modeling the trade-off between diet costs and methane emissions: A goal programming approach

AbstractEnteric methane emission is a major greenhouse gas from livestock production systems worldwide. Dietary manipulation may be an effective emission-reduction tool; however, the associated costs may preclude its use as a mitigation strategy. Several studies have identified dietary manipulation strategies for the mitigation of emissions, but studies examining the costs of reducing methane by manipulating diets are scarce. Furthermore, the trade-off between increase in dietary costs and reduction in methane emissions has only been determined for a limited number of production scenarios. The objective of this study was to develop an optimization framework for the joint minimization of dietary costs and methane emissions based on the identification of a set of feasible solutions for various levels of trade-off between emissions and costs. Such a set of solutions was created by the specification of a systematic grid of goal programming weights, enabling the decision maker to choose the solution that achieves the desired trade-off level. Moreover, the model enables the calculation of emission-mitigation costs imputing a trading value for methane emissions. Emission imputed costs can be used in emission-unit trading schemes, such as cap-and-trade policy designs. An application of the model using data from lactating cows from dairies in the California Central Valley is presented to illustrate the use of model-generated results in the identification of optimal diets when reducing emissions. The optimization framework is flexible and can be adapted to jointly minimize diet costs and other potential environmental impacts (e.g., nitrogen excretion). It is also flexible so that dietary costs, feed nutrient composition, and animal nutrient requirements can be altered to accommodate various production systems

Status report on Corsica modeling for current drive scenario development

This milestone report covers the progress and status of Corsica modeling for DIII-D experiments over the past year, since our previous report in September, 1995. During this time, we have concentrated on improvements to the code in support of our ability to do self-consistent, predictive modeling of DIII-D discharges. Our interest is in obtaining a tool, benchmarked with experimental data, for developing advanced tokamak operations scenarios including simulation and analysis of high performance negative central shear (NCS) discharges and control of the current profile evolution. Our major focus has been on installing and improving the neutral beam current drive mode in Corsica; this element is critical to modeling the evolution of DIII-D discharges. The NFREYA neutral beam deposition code was installed (starting with a version consistent with GA`s ONETWO code) and the capability for following particle orbits, including the effects of drifts, was added for determining the current driven by neutral beam -injection. In addition, improved methods for more easily integrating experimental profile measurements into the code operation and for calculating Z{sub eff} either from models or from impurity density measurements have been added. We have recently begun to turn on various transport models in our simulation of discharge evolution. We have concentrated on the NCS configuration and have simulated the evolution of two different high neutron reactivity discharges; an NCS discharge with L-mode edge and a single- null, weak NCS discharge from the JET/ITER/DIII-D equivalent shape experiments. Corsica simulation results for these discharges were presented at the EPS meeting in Kiev, Ukraine in June, 1996

Kidney and vascular function in adult patients with hereditary fructose intolerance

Objective: Previous studies have shown that patients with hereditary fructose intolerance (HFI) are characterized by a greater intrahepatic triglyceride content, despite a fructose-restricted diet. The present study aimed to examine the long-term consequences of HFI on other aldolase-B-expressing organs, i.e. the kidney and vascular endothelium. Methods: Fifteen adult HFI patients were compared to healthy control individuals matched for age, sex and body mass index. Aortic stiffness was assessed by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cf-PWV) and endothelial function by peripheral arterial tonometry, skin laser doppler flowmetry and the endothelial function biomarkers soluble E-selectin [sE-selectin] and von Willebrand factor. Serum creatinine and cystatin C were measured to estimate the glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Urinary glucose and amino acid excretion and the ratio of tubular maximum reabsorption of phosphate to GFR (TmP/GFR) were determined as measures of proximal tubular function. Results: Median systolic blood pressure was significantly higher in HFI patients (127 versus 122 mmHg, p = .045). Pulse pressure and cf-PWV did not differ between the groups (p = .37 and p = .49, respectively). Of all endothelial function markers, only sE-selectin was significantly higher in HFI patients (p = .004). eGFR was significantly higher in HFI patients than healthy controls (119 versus 104 ml/min/1.73m2, p = .001, respectively). All measurements of proximal tubular function did not differ significantly between the groups. Conclusions: Adult HFI patients treated with a fructose-restricted diet are characterized by a higher sE-selectin level and slightly higher systolic blood pressure, which in time could contribute to a greater cardiovascular risk. The exact cause and, hence, clinical consequences of the higher eGFR in HFI patients, deserves further study.</p

Investigation of the association of the CRTM and CRTL1 genes with radiographically evident osteoarthritis in subjects from the Rotterdam study

__Objective:__ To investigate whether radiographically evident osteoarthritis (ROA) in 55-65-year-old men and women is associated with specific alleles or genotypes of the cartilage matrix protein (CRTM) and cartilage link protein (CRTLl) genes. __Methods:__ Cases were selected from a populationbased study on the presence of ROA of the knee or hip. Further radiographic analysis included scoring for spine and hand ROA. Controls, selected from the same population, were free of ROA in all joints. __Results:__ The CRTM locus was significantly associated with hip ROA in men (odds ratio 0.50, 95% confidence interval 0.26-0.95). A significant association between ROA and the CRTLl gene was not observed. __Conclusion:__ These results suggest that the CRTM locus may play a role in the sex- and joint site-specific pattern of ROA development

First Observation of Coherent π0\pi^0 Production in Neutrino Nucleus Interactions with Eν<E_{\nu}< 2 GeV

The MiniBooNE experiment at Fermilab has amassed the largest sample to date of $\pi^0$s produced in neutral current (NC) neutrino-nucleus interactions at low energy. This paper reports a measurement of the momentum distribution of $\pi^0$s produced in mineral oil (CH$_2$) and the first observation of coherent $\pi^0$ production below 2 GeV. In the forward direction, the yield of events observed above the expectation for resonant production is attributed primarily to coherent production off carbon, but may also include a small contribution from diffractive production on hydrogen. Integrated over the MiniBooNE neutrino flux, the sum of the NC coherent and diffractive modes is found to be (19.5 $\pm$1.1 (stat) $\pm$2.5 (sys))% of all exclusive NC $\pi^0$ production at MiniBooNE. These measurements are of immediate utility because they quantify an important background to MiniBooNE's search for $\nu_{\mu} \to \nu_e$ oscillations.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Lett.

Gamma-Ray Bursts: The Underlying Model

A pedagogical derivation is presented of the ``fireball'' model of gamma-ray bursts, according to which the observable effects are due to the dissipation of the kinetic energy of a relativistically expanding wind, a ``fireball.'' The main open questions are emphasized, and key afterglow observations, that provide support for this model, are briefly discussed. The relativistic outflow is, most likely, driven by the accretion of a fraction of a solar mass onto a newly born (few) solar mass black hole. The observed radiation is produced once the plasma has expanded to a scale much larger than that of the underlying ``engine,'' and is therefore largely independent of the details of the progenitor, whose gravitational collapse leads to fireball formation. Several progenitor scenarios, and the prospects for discrimination among them using future observations, are discussed. The production in gamma- ray burst fireballs of high energy protons and neutrinos, and the implications of burst neutrino detection by kilometer-scale telescopes under construction, are briefly discussed.Comment: In "Supernovae and Gamma Ray Bursters", ed. K. W. Weiler, Lecture Notes in Physics, Springer-Verlag (in press); 26 pages, 2 figure

Theoretical study of lepton events in the atmospheric neutrino experiments at SuperK

Super-Kamiokande has reported the results for the lepton events in the atmospheric neutrino experiment. These results have been presented for a 22.5kT water fiducial mass on an exposure of 1489 days, and the events are divided into sub-GeV, multi-GeV and PC events. We present a study of nuclear medium effects in the sub-GeV energy region of atmospheric neutrino events for the quasielastic scattering, incoherent and coherent pion production processes, as they give the most dominant contribution to the lepton events in this energy region. We have used the atmospheric neutrino flux given by Honda et al. These calculations have been done in the local density approximation. We take into account the effect of Pauli blocking, Fermi motion, Coulomb effect, renormalization of weak transition strengths in the nuclear medium in the case of the quasielastic reactions. The inelastic reactions leading to production of leptons along with pions is calculated in a $\Delta$- dominance model by taking into account the renormalization of $\Delta$ properties in the nuclear medium and the final state interaction effects of the outgoing pions with the residual nucleus. We present the results for the lepton events obtained in our model with and without nuclear medium effects, and compare them with the Monte Carlo predictions used in the simulation and the experimentally observed events reported by the Super-Kamiokande collaboration.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figure

Generating fuzzy rules by learning from olive tree transpiration measurement - An algorithm to automatize Granier sap flow data analysis

The present study aims at developing an intelligent system of automating data analysis and prediction embedded in a fuzzy logic algorithm (FAUSY) to capture the relationship between environmental variables and sap flow measurements (Granier method). Environmental thermal gradients often interfere with Granier sap flow measurements since this method uses heat as a tracer, thus introducing a bias in transpiration flux calculation. The FAUSY algorithm is applied to solve measurement problems and provides an approximate and yet effective way of finding the relationship between the environmental variables and the natural temperature gradient (NTG), which is too complex or too ill-defined for precise mathematical analysis. In the process, FAUSY extracts the relationships from a set of input–output environmental observations, thus general directions for algorithm-based machine learning in fuzzy systems are outlined. Through an iterative procedure, the algorithm plays with the learning or forecasting via a simulated model. After a series of error control iterations, the outcome of the algorithm may become highly refined and be able to evolve into a more formal structure of rules, facilitating the automation of Granier sap flow data analysis. The system presented herein simulates the occurrence of NTG with reasonable accuracy, with an average residual error of 2.53% for sap flux rate, when compared to data processing performed in the usual way. For practical applications, this is an acceptable margin of error given that FAUSY could correct NTG errors up to an average of 76% of the normal manual correction process. In this sense, FAUSY provides a powerful and flexible way of establishing the relationships between the environment and NTG occurrencesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio