Sudden Increases in Listeriosis Rates in England and Wales, 2001 and 2003

The monthly incidence of listeriosis infections in England and Wales had 2 sudden increases during April 2001 (41%) and March 2003 (48%). Although no causative association is demonstrated, these increases correspond to key dates relating to the onset and aftermath of the 2001 foot and mouth disease outbreak in the United Kingdom

A jump-growth model for predator-prey dynamics: derivation and application to marine ecosystems

This paper investigates the dynamics of biomass in a marine ecosystem. A stochastic process is defined in which organisms undergo jumps in body size as they catch and eat smaller organisms. Using a systematic expansion of the master equation, we derive a deterministic equation for the macroscopic dynamics, which we call the deterministic jump-growth equation, and a linear Fokker-Planck equation for the stochastic fluctuations. The McKendrick--von Foerster equation, used in previous studies, is shown to be a first-order approximation, appropriate in equilibrium systems where predators are much larger than their prey. The model has a power-law steady state consistent with the approximate constancy of mass density in logarithmic intervals of body mass often observed in marine ecosystems. The behaviours of the stochastic process, the deterministic jump-growth equation and the McKendrick--von Foerster equation are compared using numerical methods. The numerical analysis shows two classes of attractors: steady states and travelling waves.Comment: 27 pages, 4 figures. Final version as published. Only minor change

Deep to shallow-marine sedimentology and impact of volcanism within the Middle Triassic Palaeo-Tethyan Semantan Basin, Singapore

The Middle Triassic Pulau Ayer Chawan Formation is a predominantly deep-marine, occasionally shallow-marine sedimentary succession, deposited in the Singapore sector of the Palaeo-Tethyan Semantan Basin. The formation provides an important record of the dynamic interplay between a siliciclastic sedimentary system and the products of an adjacent active volcanic arc. It is characterised by six sub-environments, including: deep-marine turbidite fan, deep-marine background sedimentation, subaqueous debris cone, shallow-marine, volcanically-sourced turbidite fan, and hyaloclastite mound or ridge. Turbidite fan deposits preserve the input of both siliciclastic and volcaniclastic sediments from the shelf, transported into the deep-marine environment by a suite of subaqueous sediment gravity flow processes, including: turbidity currents; mixed flow types (hybrid event beds); concentrated and hyper concentrated sediment gravity flows, and debris flows. Thick heterolithic successions of debrites were likely sourced through regular collapse of an unstable shelf. The presence of hybrid event beds, encountered within the deep-marine turbidite fans, supports a slope that was out-of-grade, and may have been actively retreating towards the hinterland. Together, these factors suggest regional-scale uplift of the eastern margins of the Semantan Basin during Triassic times, most likely facilitated through volcanic activity in the adjacent Palaeo-Tethys Sukhothai Arc. Evidence for contemporaneous, arc-related magmatism includes ubiquitous volcaniclastic sedimentary rocks within formation, including pyroclastic density current deposits and perhaps more-strikingly through the hyaloclastites of the Nanyang Member. The hyaloclastites formed through quenching of magmas delivered into the deep-marine setting from a series of sub-sea vents or mounds

Forward-in-Time, Spatially Explicit Modeling Software to Simulate Genetic Lineages Under Selection

SELECTOR is a software package for studying the evolution of multiallelic genes under balancing or positive selection while simulating complex evolutionary scenarios that integrate demographic growth and migration in a spatially explicit population framework. Parameters can be varied both in space and time to account for geographical, environmental, and cultural heterogeneity. SELECTOR can be used within an approximate Bayesian computation estimation framework. We first describe the principles of SELECTOR and validate the algorithms by comparing its outputs for simple models with theoretical expectations. Then, we show how it can be used to investigate genetic differentiation of loci under balancing selection in interconnected demes with spatially heterogeneous gene flow. We identify situations in which balancing selection reduces genetic differentiation between population groups compared with neutrality and explain conflicting outcomes observed for human leukocyte antigen loci. These results and three previously published applications demonstrate that SELECTOR is efficient and robust for building insight into human settlement history and evolution

Paleozoic to Cenozoic sedimentary bedrock geology and lithostratigraphy of Singapore

A new lithostratigraphical framework for Singapore is proposed, based on the analysis of c. 20,000 m of core recovered from 121 c. 205 m deep boreholes and augmented with 218 field localities from across Singapore. The new framework describes a succession dating from the Carboniferous to the Quaternary. New U-Pb detrital zircon dates and fossil analysis were used to constrain the ages of key sedimentary units. The oldest known sedimentary rocks in Singapore are found to be the deformed Carboniferous (Mississippian) Sajahat Formation. These are succeeded by the newly erected, Middle and Upper Triassic, marine to continental Jurong Group and Sentosa Group successions that accumulated in the southern part of the Semantan Basin. The Jurong Group comprises four formations: the Tuas Formation, the Pulau Ayer Chawan Formation, the Pandan Formation and the Boon Lay Formation. The Sentosa Group contains two formations: the Tanjong Rimau Formation and the Fort Siloso Formation. In Singapore, the depositional record during this time is related to late Permian to Triassic arc magmatism in the southern part of the forearc basin to the Sukhothai Arc. The Jurong and Sentosa groups were deformed and weakly metamorphosed during the final stages of the Late Triassic to Early Jurassic orogenic event, deformation that led to the formation of the syn-orogenic conglomerates of the Buona Vista Formation. Following this, two distinct Lower Cretaceous sedimentary successions overstepped the Jurong and Sentosa group strata, including the Kusu Formation and the Bukit Batok Formation, both deposited in the southern part of the Tembeling Basin. A series of Neogene to Quaternary formations overly the Mesozoic and Palaeozoic stratigraphy, including the Fort Canning Formation, Bedok Formation and the Kallang Group

Rapid Evolution and the Importance of Recombination to the Gastroenteric Pathogen Campylobacter jejuni

Responsible for the majority of bacterial gastroenteritis in the developed world, Campylobacter jejuni is a pervasive pathogen of humans and animals, but its evolution is obscure. In this paper, we exploit contemporary genetic diversity and empirical evidence to piece together the evolutionary history of C. jejuni and quantify its evolutionary potential. Our combined population genetics–phylogenetics approach reveals a surprising picture. Campylobacter jejuni is a rapidly evolving species, subject to intense purifying selection that purges 60% of novel variation, but possessing a massive evolutionary potential. The low mutation rate is offset by a large effective population size so that a mutation at any site can occur somewhere in the population within the space of a week. Recombination has a fundamental role, generating diversity at twice the rate of de novo mutation, and facilitating gene flow between C. jejuni and its sister species Campylobacter coli. We attempt to calibrate the rate of molecular evolution in C. jejuni based solely on within-species variation. The rates we obtain are up to 1,000 times faster than conventional estimates, placing the C. jejuni–C. coli split at the time of the Neolithic revolution. We weigh the plausibility of such recent bacterial evolution against alternative explanations and discuss the evidence required to settle the issue

Analysis of LIGO data for gravitational waves from binary neutron stars

We report on a search for gravitational waves from coalescing compact binary systems in the Milky Way and the Magellanic Clouds. The analysis uses data taken by two of the three LIGO interferometers during the first LIGO science run and illustrates a method of setting upper limits on inspiral event rates using interferometer data. The analysis pipeline is described with particular attention to data selection and coincidence between the two interferometers. We establish an observational upper limit of $\mathcal{R}<$1.7 \times 10^{2}$per year per Milky Way Equivalent Galaxy (MWEG), with 90coalescence rate of binary systems in which each component has a mass in the range 1--3$M_\odot$.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figure

Eco-evolutionary dynamics on deformable fitness landscapes

Conventional approaches to modelling ecological dynamics often do not include evolutionary changes in the genetic makeup of component species and, conversely, conventional approaches to modelling evolutionary changes in the genetic makeup of a population often do not include ecological dynamics. But recently there has been considerable interest in understanding the interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics as coupled processes. However, in the context of complex multi-species ecosytems, especially where ecological and evolutionary timescales are similar, it is difficult to identify general organising principles that help us understand the structure and behaviour of complex ecosystems. Here we introduce a simple abstraction of coevolutionary interactions in a multi-species ecosystem. We model non-trophic ecological interactions based on a continuous but low-dimensional trait/niche space, where the location of each species in trait space affects the overlap of its resource utilisation with that of other species. The local depletion of available resources creates, in effect, a deformable fitness landscape that governs how the evolution of one species affects the selective pressures on other species. This enables us to study the coevolution of ecological interactions in an intuitive and easily visualisable manner. We observe that this model can exhibit either of the two behavioural modes discussed in the literature; namely, evolutionary stasis or Red Queen dynamics, i.e., continued evolutionary change. We find that which of these modes is observed depends on the lag or latency between the movement of a species in trait space and its effect on available resources. Specifically, if ecological change is nearly instantaneous compared to evolutionary change, stasis results; but conversely, if evolutionary timescales are closer to ecological timescales, such that resource depletion is not instantaneous on evolutionary timescales, then Red Queen dynamics result. We also observe that in the stasis mode, the overall utilisation of resources by the ecosystem is relatively efficient, with diverse species utilising different niches, whereas in the Red Queen mode the organisation of the ecosystem is such that species tend to clump together competing for overlapping resources. These models thereby suggest some basic conditions that influence the organisation of inter-species interactions and the balance of individual and collective adaptation in ecosystems, and likewise they also suggest factors that might be useful in engineering artificial coevolution