Using geographically weighted regression to explore the spatially heterogeneous spread of bovine tuberculosis in England and Wales

An understanding of the factors that affect the spread of endemic bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is critical for the development of measures to stop and reverse this spread. Analyses of spatial data need to account for the inherent spatial heterogeneity within the data, or else spatial autocorrelation can lead to an overestimate of the significance of variables. This study used three methods of analysis—least-squares linear regression with a spatial autocorrelation term, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and boosted regression tree (BRT) analysis—to identify the factors that influence the spread of endemic bTB at a local level in England and Wales. The linear regression and GWR methods demonstrated the importance of accounting for spatial differences in risk factors for bTB, and showed some consistency in the identification of certain factors related to flooding, disease history and the presence of multiple genotypes of bTB. This is the first attempt to explore the factors associated with the spread of endemic bTB in England and Wales using GWR. This technique improves on least-squares linear regression approaches by identifying regional differences in the factors associated with bTB spread. However, interpretation of these complex regional differences is difficult and the approach does not lend itself to predictive models which are likely to be of more value to policy makers. Methods such as BRT may be more suited to such a task. Here we have demonstrated that GWR and BRT can produce comparable outputs

Evaluation of the methodological quality of studies of the performance of diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis using QUADAS

There has been little assessment of the methodological quality of studies measuring the performance (sensitivity and/or specificity) of diagnostic tests for animal diseases. In a systematic review, 190 studies of tests for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle (published 1934-2009) were assessed by at least one of 18 reviewers using the QUADAS (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies) checklist adapted for animal disease tests. VETQUADAS (VQ) included items measuring clarity in reporting (n = 3), internal validity (n = 9) and external validity (n = 2). A similar pattern for compliance was observed in studies of different diagnostic test types. Compliance significantly improved with year of publication for all items measuring clarity in reporting and external validity but only improved in four of the nine items measuring internal validity (p < 0.05). 107 references, of which 83 had performance data eligible for inclusion in a meta-analysis were reviewed by two reviewers. In these references, agreement between reviewers' responses was 71% for compliance, 32% for unsure and 29% for non-compliance. Mean compliance with reporting items was 2, 5.2 for internal validity and 1.5 for external validity. The index test result was described in sufficient detail in 80.1% of studies and was interpreted without knowledge of the reference standard test result in only 33.1%. Loss to follow-up was adequately explained in only 31.1% of studies. The prevalence of deficiencies observed may be due to inadequate reporting but may also reflect lack of attention to methodological issues that could bias the results of diagnostic test performance estimates. QUADAS was a useful tool for assessing and comparing the quality of studies measuring the performance of diagnostic tests but might be improved further by including explicit assessment of population sampling strategy.The SE3238 project “Meta-analysis of diagnostic tests and modelling to identify appropriate testing strategies to reduce M. bovis infection in GB herds” was funded by the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra).http://www.elsevier.com/locate/prevetmedam2018Veterinary Tropical Disease

Meta-analyses of the sensitivity and specificity of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis in the UK and Ireland

Publication history: Accepted - 26 February 2017; Published online - 6th March 2017.Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle is a global health problem and eradication of the disease requires accu-rate estimates of diagnostic test performance to optimize their efficiency. The objective of this study was,through statistical meta-analyses, to obtain estimates of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp), for 14 differ-ent ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Using data from a systematic reviewof the scientific literature (published 1934–2009) diagnostic Se and Sp were estimated using Bayesianlogistic regression models adjusting for confounding factors. Random effect terms were used to accountfor unexplained heterogeneity. Parameters in the models were implemented using Markov Chain MonteCarlo (MCMC), and posterior distributions for the diagnostic parameters with adjustment for covariates(confounding factors) were obtained using the inverse logit function. Estimates for Se and/or Sp of thetuberculin skin tests and the IFN- blood test were compared with estimates published 2010–2015.Median Se for the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin skin (SICCT) test (standard inter-pretation) was 0.50 and Bayesian credible intervals (CrI) were wide (95% CrI 0.26, 0.78). Median Sp forthe SICCT test was 1.00 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00). Estimates for the IFN- blood test Bovine Purified ProteinDerivative (PPD)-Avian PPD and Early Secreted Antigen target 6 and Culture Filtrate Protein 10 (ESAT-6/CFP10) ESAT6/CFP10 were 0.67 (95% CrI 0.49, 0.82) and 0.78 (95% CrI 0.60, 0.90) respectively for Se,and 0.98 (95% CrI 0.96, 0.99) and 0.99 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00) for Sp. The study provides an overview of theaccuracy of a range of contemporary diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Better understanding of diagnostictest performance is essential for the design of effective control strategies and their evaluation.The SE3238 project “Meta-analysis of diagnostic tests and modelling to identify appropriate testing strategies to reduce M. bovis infection in GB herds” was funded by the UK Department for Envi-ronment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)

A study of tuberculosis in road traffic-killed badgers on the edge of the British bovine TB epidemic area

The role of badgers in the geographic expansion of the bovine tuberculosis (bTB) epidemic in England is unknown: indeed there have been few published studies of bTB in badgers outside of the Southwest of England where the infection is now endemic in cattle. Cheshire is now on the edge of the expanding area of England in which bTB is considered endemic in cattle. Previous studies, over a decade ago when bovine infection was rare in Cheshire, found no or only few infected badgers in the south eastern area of the county. In this study, carried out in 2014, road-killed badgers were collected through a network of local stakeholders (farmers, veterinarians, wildlife groups, government agencies), and Mycobacterium bovis was isolated from 21% (20/94) badger carcasses. Furthermore, there was strong evidence for co-localisation of M. bovis SB0129 (genotype 25) infection in both badgers and cattle herds at a county scale. While these findings suggest that both badgers and cattle are part of the same geographically expanding epidemic, the direction of any cross-species transmission and the drivers of this expansion cannot be determined. The study also demonstrated the utility of using road-killed badgers collected by stakeholders as a means of wildlife TB surveillance

Histological and immunohistochemical features suggesting aetiological differences in lymph node and (muco)cutaneous feline tuberculosis lesions

Objectives To identify and describe histological and immunohistochemical criteria that may differentiate between skin and lymph node lesions associated with Mycobacterium (M.) bovis and M. microti in a diagnostic pathology setting.Materials and Methods&lt;jats:p/&gt;Archived skin and lymph node biopsies of tuberculous lesions were stained with haematoxylin and eosin, Ziehl‐Neelsen and Masson's Trichrome. Immunohistochemistry was performed to detect the expression of calprotectin, CD3 and Pax5. Samples were scored for histological parameters (i.e. granulomas with central necrosis versus small granulomas without central necrosis, percentage necrosis and/or multinucleated giant cells), number of acid‐fast bacilli (bacterial index) and lesion percentage of fibrosis and positive immunohistochemical staining.Results Twenty‐two samples were examined (M. bovis n=11, M. microti n=11). When controlling for age, gender and tissue, feline M. bovis‐associated lesions more often featured large multi‐layered granulomas with central necrosis. Conversely, this presentation was infrequent in feline M. microti‐associated lesions, where small granulomas without central necrosis predominated. The presence of an outer fibrous capsule was variable in both groups, as was the bacterial index. There were no differences in intralesional expression of immunohistochemical markers.Clinical Significance Differences in the histological appearance of skin and lymph node lesions may help to infer feline infection with either M. bovis or M. microti at an earlier stage when investigating these cases, informing clinicians of the potential zoonotic risk. Importantly, cases of tuberculosis can present with numerous acid‐fast bacilli. This implies that a high bacterial index does not infer infection with non‐zoonotic non‐tuberculous mycobacteria

Incidence, prevalence, and survival in patients with Langerhans cell histiocytosis: a national registry study from England, 2013-2019

This analysis is the largest population-based study to date to provide contemporary and comprehensive epidemiological estimates of all third edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-3) coded Langerhans cell histiocytosis (LCH) from England. People of all ages were identified from the National Cancer Registration Dataset using ICD-O-3 morphologies 9751–9754 for neoplasms diagnosed in 2013–2019. A total of 658 patients were identified, of whom 324 (49%) were children aged <15 years. The age-standardised incidence rate was 4.46 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.99–4.98) per million children and 1.06 (95% CI 0.94–1.18) per million adults aged ≥15 years. Prevalence of LCH was 9.95 (95% CI 9.14–10.81) per million persons at the end of 2019. The 1-year overall survival (OS) was 99% (95% CI 97%–100%) for children and 90% (95% CI 87%–93%) for adults. Those aged ≥60 years had poorer OS than those aged <15 years (hazard ratio [HR] 22.12, 95% CI 7.10–68.94; p < 0.001). People in deprived areas had lower OS than those in the least deprived areas (HR 5.36, 95% CI 1.16–24.87; p = 0.03). There will inevitably be other environmental factors and associations yet to be identified, and the continued standardised data collection will allow further evaluation of data over time. This will be increasingly important with developments in LCH management following the large collaborative international trials such as LCH IV

Prevalence of vascular disruption anomalies and association with young maternal age: A EUROCAT study to compare the United Kingdom with other European countries.

BACKGROUND: Younger mothers are at a greater risk of having a pregnancy with gastroschisis and the risk is higher in the United Kingdom than other European countries. Gastroschisis is thought to be a vascular disruption anomaly and the aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence of other possible vascular disruption anomalies to determine whether both the younger maternal age and the UK associations also occur with these anomalies. METHODS: All pregnancies with anomalies considered potentially due to vascular disruption from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2017 from 26 European population-based congenital anomaly registries who were members of EUROCAT were analyzed. Multilevel models were used to allow for differences between registries when analyzing associations with maternal age, year of birth and whether the registry was in the United Kingdom. RESULTS: There were 5,220 cases with potential vascular disruption anomalies, excluding chromosomal and genetic conditions, with a prevalence of 8.85 per 10,000 births in the United Kingdom and 5.44 in the other European countries. The prevalence per 10,000 births of gastroschisis (4.45 vs. 1.56) and congenital constriction bands (0.83 vs. 0.42) was significantly higher in the United Kingdom, even after adjusting for maternal age. However, transverse limb reduction defects had a similar prevalence (2.16 vs. 2.14 per 10,000). The expected increased prevalence in younger mothers was observed for vascular disruption anomalies overall and for the individual anomalies: gastroschisis and congenital constriction bands. CONCLUSION: Vascular disruption anomalies that had an increased risk for younger mothers (such as gastroschisis) had a higher maternal age standardized prevalence in the United Kingdom, while vascular disruption anomalies with weaker associations with younger mothers (such as transverse limb reduction defects) did not have an increased prevalence in the United Kingdom, which may indicate a different etiology for these anomalies

Fine-mapping host genetic variation underlying outcomes to Mycobacterium bovis infection in dairy cows

Abstract Background Susceptibility to Mycobacterium bovis infection in cattle is governed in part by host genetics. However, cattle diagnosed as infected with M. bovis display varying signs of pathology. The variation in host response to infection could represent a continuum since time of exposure or distinct outcomes due to differing pathogen handling. The relationships between host genetics and variation in host response and pathological sequelae following M. bovis infection were explored by genotyping 1966 Holstein-Friesian dairy cows at 538,231 SNPs with three distinct phenotypes. These were: single intradermal cervical comparative tuberculin (SICCT) test positives with visible lesions (VLs), SICCT-positives with undetected visible lesions (NVLs) and matched controls SICCT-negative on multiple occasions. Results Regional heritability mapping identified three loci associated with the NVL phenotype on chromosomes 17, 22 and 23, distinct to the region on chromosome 13 associated with the VL phenotype. The region on chromosome 23 was at genome-wide significance and candidate genes overlapping the mapped window included members of the bovine leukocyte antigen class IIb region, a complex known for its role in immunity and disease resistance. Chromosome heritability analysis attributed variance to six and thirteen chromosomes for the VL and NVL phenotypes, respectively, and four of these chromosomes were found to explain a proportion of the phenotypic variation for both the VL and NVL phenotype. By grouping the M. bovis outcomes (VLs and NVLs) variance was attributed to nine chromosomes. When contrasting the two M. bovis infection outcomes (VLs vs NVLs) nine chromosomes were found to harbour heritable variation. Regardless of the case phenotype under investigation, chromosome heritability did not exceed 8% indicating that the genetic control of bTB resistance consists of variants of small to moderate effect situated across many chromosomes of the bovine genome. Conclusions These findings suggest the host genetics of M. bovis infection outcomes is governed by distinct and overlapping genetic variants. Thus, variation in the pathology of M. bovis infected cattle may be partly genetically determined and indicative of different host responses or pathogen handling. There may be at least three distinct outcomes following M. bovis exposure in dairy cattle: resistance to infection, infection resulting in pathology or no detectable pathology