Activity autocorrelation in financial markets. A comparative study between several models

We study the activity, i.e., the number of transactions per unit time, of financial markets. Using the diffusion entropy technique we show that the autocorrelation of the activity is caused by the presence of peaks whose time distances are distributed following an asymptotic power law which ultimately recovers the Poissonian behavior. We discuss these results in comparison with ARCH models, stochastic volatility models and multi-agent models showing that ARCH and stochastic volatility models better describe the observed experimental evidences.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figure

Kajian terhadap Ruang Publik sebagai Sarana Interaksi Warga di Kampung Muararajeun Lama, Bandung

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah mengidentifikasi permasalahan-permasalah yang berkaitan dengan interaksi sosial masyarakat di ruang publik pada kampung tersebut. Pengumpulan data-data dari penelitian ini dilakukan dengan survei lokasi, wawancara, dan mendokumentasikan kegiatan masyarakat kampung tersebut untuk kemudian dianalisis dengan metoda deskriptif kualitatif. Setelah dilakukan analisis dari data-data lokasi dan dikaitkan dengan teori-teori terkait, maka didapatkan kesimpulan umum bahwa pada kampung kota terjadi hubungan masyarakat yang masih memiliki sifat kekerabatan yang erat dan saling mempengaruhi satu sama lain baik dalam hubungan antar individu, antar kelompok maupun atar individu dan kelompok, pada ruang umum yang pada dasarnya merupakan suatu wadah yang dapat menampung aktivitas tertentu dari masyarakatnya. Secara khusus disimpulkan bahwa keterbatasan lahan yang ada tidak dijadikan masalah yang dapat menghambat warga Kampung Muararajeun Lama untuk berinteraksi sosial. Kegiatan berkumpul tetap dapat dilakukan baik pada halaman rumah, gang, dan warung. Sedangkan kegiatan yang memerlukan tempat yang lebih luas untuk menampung banyak warga dilakukan di Sekolah Taman Kanak-Kanak pada Kampung. Meskipun ruang berkumpul tersebut tidak responsive, tetapi dapat memenuhi aktifitas masyarakat sehingga menimbulkan kesan democratic, comfort, dan meaningful

Prediction of extreme events in the OFC model on a small world network

We investigate the predictability of extreme events in a dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a small world topology. Due to the mechanism of self-organized criticality, it is impossible to predict the magnitude of the next event knowing previous ones, if the system has an infinite size. However, by exploiting the finite size effects, we show that probabilistic predictions of the occurrence of extreme events in the next time step are possible in a finite system. In particular, the finiteness of the system unavoidably leads to repulsive temporal correlations of extreme events. The predictability of those is higher for larger magnitudes and for larger complex network sizes. Finally, we show that our prediction analysis is also robust by remarkably reducing the accessible number of events used to construct the optimal predictor.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

In Vitro Culture of Seaweed Kappaphycus Alvarezii Under Different Formulation of Growth Stimulating Substances and Culture Media

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperoleh benih unggul secara berkelanjutan yang mengikuti karakteristik dari tanaman induk, menentukan formulasi terbaik dari substansi pertumbuhan merangsang. Secara umum, kombinasi sitokinin dan auksin digunakan, tetapi penelitian ini juga menambahkankombinasi sitokinin, giberelin, sitokinin dan asam absisat (AA). Parameter yang diukur adalah panjang tunas, jumlah tunas, dan tingkat kelangsungan hidup. Bakteri Vibrio Uji sp juga dilakukan sebagai penyebab kematian eksplan . Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tunas terpanjang terdapat pada perlakuan C (S + A 1: 2,5) kultur dalam toples, 1,343 mm, 38% hidup, sementara jumlah tertinggi tunas ditemukan pada perlakuan B (S + A 1: 2) 8.86 . Jumlah tunas paling sedikit terdapat pada perlakuan J (S + AA 1: 2,5) yang dikultur dalam toples, 0,093 mm, 2,64 tunas, 10% hidup, sedangkan eksplan yang dikultur dalam botol memiliki panjang 0.051 mm, 1. 50 tunas , 4% bertahan hidup. Sebagai kesimpulan, pertumbuhan terbaik merangsang zat ditemukan dalam perlakuan C untuk panjang tunas dan tingkat kelangsungan hidup, sementara jumlah tunas terbanyak ditemukan pada perlakuan B. Penggunaan wadah budaya terbaik adalah topless yang diaerasi. Kultur in vitro juga dapat menggunakan formulasi S + G. Kematian eksplan disebabkan oleh Vibrio charchariae . Penggunaan formulasi S + AA memiliki pertumbuhan yang lebih rendah dari pada pengobatan kontrol

Power-Law Time Distribution of Large Earthquakes

We study the statistical properties of time distribution of seimicity in California by means of a new method of analysis, the Diffusion Entropy. We find that the distribution of time intervals between a large earthquake (the main shock of a given seismic sequence) and the next one does not obey Poisson statistics, as assumed by the current models. We prove that this distribution is an inverse power law with an exponent $\mu=2.06 \pm 0.01$. We propose the Long-Range model, reproducing the main properties of the diffusion entropy and describing the seismic triggering mechanisms induced by large earthquakes.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures. Revised version accepted for publication. Typos corrected, more detailed discussion on the method used, refs added. Phys. Rev. Lett. (2003) in pres

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Rivaroxaban in the Secondary Prevention of Acute Coronary Syndromes in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, coronary heart disease accounts for 7 million deaths each year. In Sweden, acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a leading cause of hospitalization and is responsible for 1 in 4 deaths. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this analysis was to assess the cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban 2.5 mg twice daily (BID) in combination with standard antiplatelet therapy (ST-APT) versus ST-APT alone, for the secondary prevention of ACS in adult patients with elevated cardiac biomarkers without a prior history of stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA), from a Swedish societal perspective, based on clinical data from the global ATLAS ACS 2-TIMI 51 trial, literature-based quality of life data and costs sourced from Swedish national databases. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to capture rates of single and multiple myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) major, minor, and "requiring medical attention" bleeds, revascularization events, and associated costs and utilities in patients who were stabilized after an initial ACS event. Efficacy and safety data for the first 2 years came from the ATLAS ACS 2-TIMI 51 trial. Long-term probabilities were extrapolated using safety and effectiveness of acetylsalicylic acid data, which was estimated from published literature, assuming constant rates in time. Future cost and effects were discounted at 3.0%. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: In the base case, the use of rivaroxaban 2.5 mg BID was associated with improvements in survival and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), yielding an incremental cost per QALY of 71,246 Swedish Krona (SEK) (€8045). The outcomes were robust to changes in inputs. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated rivaroxaban 2.5 mg BID to be cost-effective in >99.9% of cases, assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of SEK 500,000 (€56,458). CONCLUSION: Compared with ST-APT alone, the use of rivaroxaban 2.5 mg BID in combination with ST-APT can be considered a cost-effective treatment option for ACS patients with elevated cardiac biomarkers without a prior history of stroke/TIA in Sweden. FUNDING: Bayer Pharma AG

\tau\to \mu \bar{\nu_i} \nu_i decay in the general two Higgs doublet model

We study \tau\to \mu \bar{\nu_i} \nu_i, i=e,\mu,\tau decay in the model III version of the two Higgs doublet model. We calculated the BR at the order of the magnitude of 10^{-6}-10^{-4} for the intermediate values of the Yukawa couplings. Furthermore, we predict the upper limit of the coupling for the \tau-h^0 (A^0)-\tau transition as \sim 0.3 in the case that the BR is \sim 10^{-6}. We observe that the experimental result of the process under consideration can give comprehensive information about the physics beyond the standard model and the free parameters existing.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

The Impact of Donor Risk Index, Recipients’ and Operative Characteristics on Post Liver Transplant One-Year Graft Failure: A Cohort Analysis

Background and Aims: The donor risk index (DRI) quantifies donor-related characteristics potentially associated with increased risk of early graft failure. We aimed to assess the impact of the DRI, recipient and perioperative factors on post liver transplant (LT) outcomes. Methods: This was a singlecenter retrospective cohort study including all adult (≥18 years) patients who underwent LT from 01/2019 to 12/2019 at Curry Cabral Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal. Primary endpoint was 1-year graft failure post LT. Associations were studied with logistic regression. Results: A total of 131 cadaveric donor LT procedures were performed in 116 recipients. Recipients’ median (IQR) age was 57 (47–64) years and 101/131 (77.1%) were males. Cirrhosis was the underlying etiology in 95/131 (81.2%) transplants. Based on 8 predefined donors’ characteristics, median (IQR) DRI was 1.96 (1.67–2.16). Following adjustment for MELDNa score pre LT and SOFA score (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.91 [0.56–1.47]) or lactate (aOR [95% CI] = 2.76 [0.71–10.7]) upon intensive care unit (ICU) admission post LT, DRI was not associated with 1-year graft failure. However, higher SOFA score (aOR [95% CI] = 1.20 [1.05–1.37]) or lactate (aOR [95% CI] = 1.27 [1.10–1.46]) upon ICU admission post LT were independently associated with higher odds of 1-year graft failure. Conclusions: In a recent cohort of patients who underwent LT, DRI, despite being high, was not associated with 1-year graft failure, but SOFA score or lactate upon ICU admission post LT were.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Variability of Individual Platelet Reactivity Over Time in Patients Treated With Clopidogrel Insights From the ELEVATE–TIMI 56 Trial

AbstractBackgroundThe degree of antiplatelet response to clopidogrel has been associated with clinical outcomes. Studies have investigated whether adjustment of antiplatelet therapies based on a single platelet function test is beneficial.ObjectivesThe aim of the study was to test the stability of platelet reactivity measurements over time among patients treated with standard and double doses of clopidogrel.MethodsThe ELEVATE–TIMI 56 (Escalating Clopidogrel by Involving a Genetic Strategy–Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction 56) investigators genotyped 333 patients with coronary artery disease and randomized them to various clopidogrel regimens. Patients with at least 2 platelet function results on the same maintenance dose of clopidogrel (75 mg or 150 mg) were analyzed. Platelet aggregation was measured using P2Y12 reaction units (PRU).ResultsIn total, the mean platelet reactivity and the total number of nonresponders (PRU ≥230) with clopidogrel did not change between 2 periods for the 75-mg (22.4% vs. 21.9%; p = 0.86) and 150-mg doses of clopidogrel (11.5% vs. 11.5%; p = 1.00). In contrast, when evaluating each patient individually, 15.7% of patients taking clopidogrel 75 mg and 11.4% of patients taking 150 mg had a change in their responder status when tested at 2 different time points (p < 0.001). Despite being treated with the same dose of clopidogrel, >40% of patients had a change in PRU >40 on serial sampling, which approximates the average PRU difference caused by increasing the clopidogrel dose from 75 mg to 150 mg.ConclusionsMeasurements of platelet reactivity vary over time in a significant proportion of patients. Thus, treatment adjustment according to platelet function testing at a single time point might not be sufficient for guiding antiplatelet therapy in clinical or research settings. (Escalating Clopidogrel by Involving a Genetic Strategy–Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction 56 [ELEVATE–TIMI 56]; NCT01235351

Public sector marketing : adjustment processes by taking the example of the city Hamburg an the event Hafengeburtstag

Stadtmarketing basiert auf der Philosophie der Kundenorientierung und wird als Fundament der zielgerichteten Gestaltung und Vermarktung einer Stadt definiert. Diese Bachelorarbeit analysiert die Anpassungsprozesse des Stadtmarketings am Beispiel der Stadt Hamburg und dem traditionellen Hamburger Event Hafengeburtstag