Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: Impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability

In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000–2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m<sup>3</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>) is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m<sup>3</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m<sup>3</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m<sup>3</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism

Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability

International audienceIn recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000?3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000?2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000?3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000?2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000?2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m³ s?1) is significantly higher than for 4000?3000 BP (244.8 m³ s?1), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m³ s?1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m³ s?1) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism

Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability

International audienceIn recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000?3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000?2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000?3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000?2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000?2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m³ s?1) is significantly higher than for 4000?3000 BP (244.8 m³ s?1), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m³ s?1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m³ s?1) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism

Food availability limits avian reproduction in the city: An experimental study on great tits Parus major

1. The altered ecological and environmental conditions in towns and cities strongly affect demographic traits of urban animal populations, for example avian reproductive success is often reduced. Previous work suggests that this is partly driven by low insect availability during the breeding season, but robust experimental evidence that supports this food limitation hypothesis is not yet available. 2. We tested core predictions of the food limitation hypothesis using a controlled experiment that provided supplementary insect food (nutritionally enhanced mealworms supplied daily to meet 40%–50% of each supplemented brood's food requirements) to great tit nestlings in urban and forest habitats. 3. We measured parental provisioning rates and estimated the amount of supplementary food consumed by control and experimental nestlings, and assessed their body size and survival rates. 4. Provisioning rates were similar across habitats and control and supplemented broods, but supplemented (and not control) broods consumed large quantities of supplementary food. As predicted by the food limitation hypothesis we found that nestlings in (a) urban control broods had smaller body size and nestling survival rates than those in forest control broods; (b) forest supplemented and control broods had similar body size and survival rates; (c) urban supplemented nestlings had larger body size and survival rates than those in urban control broods; and crucially (d) urban supplemented broods had similar body size and survival rates to nestlings in forest control broods. 5. Our results provide rare experimental support for the strong negative effects of food limitation during the nestling rearing period on urban birds' breeding success. Furthermore, the fact that supplementary food almost completely eliminated habitat differences in survival rate and nestling body size suggest that urban stressors other than food shortage contributed relatively little to the reduced avian breeding success. Finally, given the impacts of the amount of supplementary food that we provided and taking clutch size differences into account, our results suggest that urban insect populations in our study system would need to be increased by a factor of at least 2.5 for urban and forest great tits to have similar reproductive success

Parametric Optimization Of Magneto-Rheological Fluid Damper Using Particle Swarm Optimization

This paper presents a parametric modeling of a magneto-rheological (MR) damper using a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method. The objective of this paper is to optimize the parameter values of the MR fluid damper behavior using the Bouc-Wen model. The parametric identification was imposed beforehand in replicating the behavior of the MR fluid damper. The algebraic function from a number of hysteresis models was steered by comparing selected models: Bingham, Bouc-Wen and BoucWen by Kwok. A simulation method was operated in investigating these models by employing MATLAB reliant from the model intricacy. The experimental data was presented in terms of the time histories of the displacement, the velocity and the force parameters, measured for both constant and variable current settings and at a selected frequency applied to the damper. The model parameters were determined using a set of experimental measurements corresponding to different current constant values. It has been shown that the MR damper model’s response via the proposed approach is in good agreement with the MR damper test rig counterpar

Geolocators lead to better measures of timing and renesting in black-tailed godwits and reveal the bias of traditional observational methods

Long-term population studies can identify changes in population dynamics over time. However, to realize meaningful conclusions, these studies rely on accurate measurements of individual traits and population characteristics. Here, we evaluate the accuracy of the observational methods used to measure reproductive traits in individually marked black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa limosa). By comparing estimates from traditional methods with data obtained from light-level geolocators, we provide an accurate estimate of the likelihood of renesting in godwits and the repeatability of the lay dates of first clutches. From 2012 to 2018, we used periods of shading recorded on the light-level geolocators carried by 68 individual godwits to document their nesting behaviour. We then compared these estimates to those simultaneously obtained by our long-term observational study. We found that among recaptured geolocator-carrying godwits, all birds renested after a failed first clutch, regardless of the date of nest loss or the number of days already spent incubating. We also found that 43% of these godwits laid a second replacement clutch after a failed first replacement, and that 21% of these godwits renested after a hatched first clutch. However, the observational study correctly identified only 3% of the replacement clutches produced by geolocator-carrying individuals and designated as first clutches a number of nests that were actually replacement clutches. Additionally, on the basis of the observational study, the repeatability of lay date was 0.24 (95% CI 0.17-0.31), whereas it was 0.54 (95% CI 0.28-0.75) using geolocator-carrying individuals. We use examples from our own and other godwit studies to illustrate how the biases in our observational study discovered here may have affected the outcome of demographic estimates, individual-level comparisons, and the design, implementation and evaluation of conservation practices. These examples emphasize the importance of improving and validating field methodologies and show how the addition of new tools can be transformational