Bioeconomic Modelling Applied to Fisheries with R/FLR/FLBEIA

The main objectives of the study presented in this report were to test the FLBEIA API, condition an operating model for the North Sea mixed fisheries and provide feedback on bioeconomic modelling limitations. Additionally, Fishrent and Fcube were also tested. FLR, FLBEIA, Fishrent and Fcube are software packages implemented by the scientific community studying fisheries to run bioeconomic models. A large test was carried out on FLBEIA by both running existing examples and trying to implement a bioeconomic model for the North Sea. In general the group felt FLBEIA is on the correct path to provide a bioeconomic modeling framework, although some work is still required. FLBEIA is not ready yet for production. A list of bugs and improvements was assembled. Conditioning a bioeconomic operating model for the North Sea showed the difficulties of merging economic and biological information. Inconsistencies on the effort definition seem to create additional problems when relating both sources of information. This subject must be further explored. The exercise was successful but data problems prevented the performance of a full economic analysis, although trend analysis on economic indicators for each scenario tested was possible. Nevertheless, these results must be taken carefully.JRC.G.4-Maritime affair

Estimating and comparing incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases by combining GP registry data: the role of uncertainty

Background: Estimates of disease incidence and prevalence are core indicators of public health. The manner in which these indicators stand out against each other provide guidance as to which diseases are most common and what health problems deserve priority. Our aim was to investigate how routinely collected data from different general practitioner registration networks (GPRNs) can be combined to estimate incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases and to explore the role of uncertainty when comparing diseases. Methods. Incidence and prevalence counts, specified by gender and age, of 18 chronic diseases from 5 GPRNs in the Netherlands from the year 2007 were used as input. Generalized linear mixed models were fitted with the GPRN identifier acting as random intercept, and age and gender as explanatory variables. Using predictions of the regression models we estimated the incidence and prevalence for 18 chronic diseases and calculated a stochastic ranking of diseases in terms of incidence and prevalence per 1,000. Results: Incidence was highest for coronary heart disease and prevalence was highest for diabetes if we looked at the point estimates. The between GPRN variance in general was higher for incidence than for prevalence. Since uncertainty intervals were wide for some diseases and overlapped, the ranking of diseases was subject to uncertainty. For incidence shifts in rank of up to twelve positions were observed. For prevalence, most diseases shifted maximally three or four places in rank. Conclusion: Estimates of incidence and prevalence can be obtained by combining data from GPRNs. Uncertainty in the estimates of absolute figures may lead to different rankings of diseases and, hence, should be taken into consideration when comparing disease incidences and prevalences

Elevated CSF and plasma complement proteins in genetic frontotemporal dementia: results from the GENFI study

Neuroinflammation is emerging as an important pathological process in frontotemporal dementia (FTD), but biomarkers are lacking. We aimed to determine the value of complement proteins, which are key components of innate immunity, as biomarkers in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma of presymptomatic and symptomatic genetic FTD mutation carriers.We measured the complement proteins C1q and C3b in CSF by ELISAs in 224 presymptomatic and symptomatic GRN, C9orf72 or MAPT mutation carriers and non-carriers participating in the Genetic Frontotemporal Dementia Initiative (GENFI), a multicentre cohort study. Next, we used multiplex immunoassays to measure a panel of 14 complement proteins in plasma of 431 GENFI participants. We correlated complement protein levels with corresponding clinical and neuroimaging data, neurofilament light chain (NfL) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP).CSF C1q and C3b, as well as plasma C2 and C3, were elevated in symptomatic mutation carriers compared to presymptomatic carriers and non-carriers. In genetic subgroup analyses, these differences remained statistically significant for C9orf72 mutation carriers. In presymptomatic carriers, several complement proteins correlated negatively with grey matter volume of FTD-related regions and positively with NfL and GFAP. In symptomatic carriers, correlations were additionally observed with disease duration and with Mini Mental State Examination and Clinical Dementia Rating scale® plus NACC Frontotemporal lobar degeneration sum of boxes scores.Elevated levels of CSF C1q and C3b, as well as plasma C2 and C3, demonstrate the presence of complement activation in the symptomatic stage of genetic FTD. Intriguingly, correlations with several disease measures in presymptomatic carriers suggest that complement protein levels might increase before symptom onset. Although the overlap between groups precludes their use as diagnostic markers, further research is needed to determine their potential to monitor dysregulation of the complement system in FTD.© 2022. The Author(s)

A data-driven disease progression model of fluid biomarkers in genetic frontotemporal dementia

Several CSF and blood biomarkers for genetic frontotemporal dementia (FTD) have been proposed, including those reflecting neuroaxonal loss (neurofilament light chain (NfL) and phosphorylated neurofilament heavy chain (pNfH)), synapse dysfunction (neuronal pentraxin 2 (NPTX2)), astrogliosis (glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP)), and complement activation (C1q, C3b). Determining the sequence in which biomarkers become abnormal over the course of disease could facilitate disease staging and help identify mutation carriers with prodromal or early-stage FTD, which is especially important as pharmaceutical trials emerge. We aimed to model the sequence of biomarker abnormalities in presymptomatic and symptomatic genetic FTD using cross-sectional data from the Genetic Frontotemporal dementia Initiative (GENFI), a longitudinal cohort study. 275 presymptomatic and 127 symptomatic carriers of mutations in GRN, C9orf72 or MAPT, as well as 247 non-carriers, were selected from the GENFI cohort based on availability of one or more of the aforementioned biomarkers. Nine presymptomatic carriers developed symptoms within 18 months of sample collection ('converters'). Sequences of biomarker abnormalities were modelled for the entire group using discriminative event-based modelling (DEBM) and for each genetic subgroup using co-initialised DEBM. These models estimate probabilistic biomarker abnormalities in a data-driven way and do not rely on prior diagnostic information or biomarker cut-off points. Using cross-validation, subjects were subsequently assigned a disease stage based on their position along the disease progression timeline. CSF NPTX2 was the first biomarker to become abnormal, followed by blood and CSF NfL, blood pNfH, blood GFAP, and finally CSF C3b and C1q. Biomarker orderings did not differ significantly between genetic subgroups, but more uncertainty was noted in the C9orf72 and MAPT groups than for GRN. Estimated disease stages could distinguish symptomatic from presymptomatic carriers and non-carriers with areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.80-0.89) and 0.90 (0.86-0.94) respectively. The AUC to distinguish converters from non-converting presymptomatic carriers was 0.85 (0.75-0.95). Our data-driven model of genetic FTD revealed that NPTX2 and NfL are the earliest to change among the selected biomarkers. Further research should investigate their utility as candidate selection tools for pharmaceutical trials. The model's ability to accurately estimate individual disease stages could improve patient stratification and track the efficacy of therapeutic interventions

Elevated CSF and plasma complement proteins in genetic frontotemporal dementia: results from the GENFI study

Background: Neuroinflammation is emerging as an important pathological process in frontotemporal dementia (FTD), but biomarkers are lacking. We aimed to determine the value of complement proteins, which are key components of innate immunity, as biomarkers in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma of presymptomatic and symptomatic genetic FTD mutation carriers. Methods: We measured the complement proteins C1q and C3b in CSF by ELISAs in 224 presymptomatic and symptomatic GRN, C9orf72 or MAPT mutation carriers and non-carriers participating in the Genetic Frontotemporal Dementia Initiative (GENFI), a multicentre cohort study. Next, we used multiplex immunoassays to measure a panel of 14 complement proteins in plasma of 431 GENFI participants. We correlated complement protein levels with corresponding clinical and neuroimaging data, neurofilament light chain (NfL) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP). Results: CSF C1q and C3b, as well as plasma C2 and C3, were elevated in symptomatic mutation carriers compared to presymptomatic carriers and non-carriers. In genetic subgroup analyses, these differences remained statistically significant for C9orf72 mutation carriers. In presymptomatic carriers, several complement proteins correlated negatively with grey matter volume of FTD-related regions and positively with NfL and GFAP. In symptomatic carriers, correlations were additionally observed with disease duration and with Mini Mental State Examination and Clinical Dementia Rating scale® plus NACC Frontotemporal lobar degeneration sum of boxes scores. Conclusions: Elevated levels of CSF C1q and C3b, as well as plasma C2 and C3, demonstrate the presence of complement activation in the symptomatic stage of genetic FTD. Intriguingly, correlations with several disease measures in presymptomatic carriers suggest that complement protein levels might increase before symptom onset. Although the overlap between groups precludes their use as diagnostic markers, further research is needed to determine their potential to monitor dysregulation of the complement system in FTD

A data-driven disease progression model of fluid biomarkers in genetic frontotemporal dementia

Several CSF and blood biomarkers for genetic frontotemporal dementia have been proposed, including those reflecting neuroaxonal loss (neurofilament light chain and phosphorylated neurofilament heavy chain), synapse dysfunction [neuronal pentraxin 2 (NPTX2)], astrogliosis (glial fibrillary acidic protein) and complement activation (C1q, C3b). Determining the sequence in which biomarkers become abnormal over the course of disease could facilitate disease staging and help identify mutation carriers with prodromal or early-stage frontotemporal dementia, which is especially important as pharmaceutical trials emerge. We aimed to model the sequence of biomarker abnormalities in presymptomatic and symptomatic genetic frontotemporal dementia using cross-sectional data from the Genetic Frontotemporal dementia Initiative (GENFI), a longitudinal cohort study. Two-hundred and seventy-five presymptomatic and 127 symptomatic carriers of mutations in GRN, C9orf72 or MAPT, as well as 247 non-carriers, were selected from the GENFI cohort based on availability of one or more of the aforementioned biomarkers. Nine presymptomatic carriers developed symptoms within 18 months of sample collection (\u27converters\u27). Sequences of biomarker abnormalities were modelled for the entire group using discriminative event-based modelling (DEBM) and for each genetic subgroup using co-initialized DEBM. These models estimate probabilistic biomarker abnormalities in a data-driven way and do not rely on previous diagnostic information or biomarker cut-off points. Using cross-validation, subjects were subsequently assigned a disease stage based on their position along the disease progression timeline. CSF NPTX2 was the first biomarker to become abnormal, followed by blood and CSF neurofilament light chain, blood phosphorylated neurofilament heavy chain, blood glial fibrillary acidic protein and finally CSF C3b and C1q. Biomarker orderings did not differ significantly between genetic subgroups, but more uncertainty was noted in the C9orf72 and MAPT groups than for GRN. Estimated disease stages could distinguish symptomatic from presymptomatic carriers and non-carriers with areas under the curve of 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.80-0.89) and 0.90 (0.86-0.94) respectively. The areas under the curve to distinguish converters from non-converting presymptomatic carriers was 0.85 (0.75-0.95). Our data-driven model of genetic frontotemporal dementia revealed that NPTX2 and neurofilament light chain are the earliest to change among the selected biomarkers. Further research should investigate their utility as candidate selection tools for pharmaceutical trials. The model\u27s ability to accurately estimate individual disease stages could improve patient stratification and track the efficacy of therapeutic interventions

Neuronal pentraxin 2 : a synapse-derived CSF biomarker in genetic frontotemporal dementia

Introduction: Synapse dysfunction is emerging as an early pathological event in frontotemporal dementia (FTD), however biomarkers are lacking. We aimed to investigate the value of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) neuronal pentraxins (NPTXs), a family of proteins involved in homeostatic synapse plasticity, as novel biomarkers in genetic FTD. Methods: We included 106 presymptomatic and 54 symptomatic carriers of a pathogenic mutation in GRN, C9orf72 or MAPT, and 70 healthy non-carriers participating in the Genetic Frontotemporal dementia Initiative (GENFI), all of whom had at least one CSF sample. We measured CSF concentrations of NPTX2 using an in-house ELISA, and NPTX1 and NPTX receptor (NPTXR) by Western blot. We correlated NPTX2 with corresponding clinical and neuroimaging datasets as well as with CSF neurofilament light chain (NfL) using linear regression analyses. Results: Symptomatic mutation carriers had lower NPTX2 concentrations (median 643 pg/mL, IQR (301-872)) than presymptomatic carriers (1003 pg/mL (624-1358), p<0.001) and non-carriers (990 pg/mL (597-1373), p<0.001) (corrected for age). Similar results were found for NPTX1 and NPTXR. Among mutation carriers, NPTX2 concentration correlated with several clinical disease severity measures, NfL and grey matter volume of the frontal, temporal and parietal lobes, insula and whole brain. NPTX2 predicted subsequent decline in phonemic verbal fluency and Clinical Dementia Rating scale plus FTD modules. In longitudinal CSF samples, available in 13 subjects, NPTX2 decreased around symptom onset and in the symptomatic stage. Discussion: We conclude that NPTX2 is a promising synapse-derived disease progression biomarker in genetic FTD

Predictors of Long-Term Care Utilization by Dutch Hospital Patients aged 65+

Background Long-term care is often associated with high health care expenditures. In the Netherlands, an ageing population will likely increase the demand for long-term care within the near future. The development of risk profiles will not only be useful for projecting future demand, but also for providing clues that may prevent or delay long-term care utilization. Here, we report our identification of predictors of long-term care utilization in a cohort of hospital patients aged 65+ following their discharge from hospital discharge and who, prior to hospital admission, were living at home. Methods The data were obtained from three national databases in the Netherlands: the national hospital discharge register, the long-term care expenses register and the population register. Multinomial logistic regression was applied to determine which variables were the best predictors of long-term care utilization. The model included demographic characteristics and several medical diagnoses. The outcome variables were discharge to home with no formal care (reference category), discharge to home with home care, admission to a nursing home and admission to a home for the elderly. Results The study cohort consisted of 262,439 hospitalized patients. A higher age, longer stay in the hospital and absence of

Cognitive composites for genetic frontotemporal dementia: GENFI-Cog

Background Clinical endpoints for upcoming therapeutic trials in frontotemporal dementia (FTD) are increasingly urgent. Cognitive composite scores are often used as endpoints but are lacking in genetic FTD. We aimed to create cognitive composite scores for genetic frontotemporal dementia (FTD) as well as recommendations for recruitment and duration in clinical trial design. Methods A standardized neuropsychological test battery covering six cognitive domains was completed by 69 C9orf72, 41 GRN, and 28 MAPT mutation carriers with CDR® plus NACC-FTLD ≥ 0.5 and 275 controls. Logistic regression was used to identify the combination of tests that distinguished best between each mutation carrier group and controls. The composite scores were calculated from the weighted averages of test scores in the models based on the regression coefficients. Sample size estimates were calculated for individual cognitive tests and composites in a theoretical trial aimed at preventing progression from a prodromal stage (CDR® plus NACC-FTLD 0.5) to a fully symptomatic stage (CDR® plus NACC-FTLD ≥ 1). Time-to-event analysis was performed to determine how quickly mutation carriers progressed from CDR® plus NACC-FTLD = 0.5 to ≥ 1 (and therefore how long a trial would need to be). Results The results from the logistic regression analyses resulted in different composite scores for each mutation carrier group (i.e. C9orf72, GRN, and MAPT). The estimated sample size to detect a treatment effect was lower for composite scores than for most individual tests. A Kaplan-Meier curve showed that after 3 years, ~ 50% of individuals had converted from CDR® plus NACC-FTLD 0.5 to ≥ 1, which means that the estimated effect size needs to be halved in sample size calculations as only half of the mutation carriers would be expected to progress from CDR® plus NACC FTLD 0.5 to ≥ 1 without treatment over that time period. Discussion We created gene-specific cognitive composite scores for C9orf72, GRN, and MAPT mutation carriers, which resulted in substantially lower estimated sample sizes to detect a treatment effect than the individual cognitive tests. The GENFI-Cog composites have potential as cognitive endpoints for upcoming clinical trials. The results from this study provide recommendations for estimating sample size and trial duration

Contribution of Chronic Disease to the Burden of Disability

Background: Population ageing is expected to lead to strong increases in the number of persons with one or more disabilities, which may result in substantial declines in the quality of life. To reduce the burden of disability and to prevent concomitant declines in the quality of life, one of the first steps is to establish which diseases contribute most to