Killing Range: Explaining Lethality Variance Within a Terrorist Organization

This paper presents an analysis of the Provisional Irish Republican Army's (PIRA) brigade level behavior during the Northern Ireland Conflict (1970-1998) and identifies the organizational factors that impact a brigade's lethality as measured via terrorist attacks. Key independent variables include levels of technical expertise, cadre age, counter-terrorism policies experienced, brigade size, and IED components and delivery methods. We find that technical expertise within a brigade allows for careful IED usage, which significantly minimizes civilian casualties (a specific strategic goal of PIRA) while increasing the ability to kill more high value targets with IEDs. Lethal counter-terrorism events also significantly affect a brigade's likelihood of killing both civilians and high-value targets but in different ways. Killing PIRA members significantly decreases IED fatalities but also significantly decreases the possibility of zero civilian IED-related deaths in a given year. Killing innocent Catholics in a Brigade's county significantly increases total and civilian IED fatalities. Together the results suggest the necessity to analyze dynamic situational variables that impact terrorist group behavior at the sub-unit level

Lethal Connections: The Determinants of Network Connections in the Provisional Irish Republican Army, 1970-1998

Using stochastic methods we illustrate that the Provisional Irish Republican Army's (PIRA) network is clustered along three primary dimensions: (a) brigade affiliation, (b) whether the member participated in violent activities, and (c) task/role within PIRA. While most brigades tended to foster connections within the brigade (that is, “closure”), the tendency to do so varied across the organization. Members who engaged with violent activities were far more likely to connect with each other; in later periods there is polarization into those who engage in violent activities and those who do not. Across brigades, those who engage in a particular task and role (improvised explosive device [IED] constructor, IED planter, gunman, robber/kidnapper/drug smuggler/hijacker) are more likely to connect with others who do the same task or play the same role than with other members who fulfill other roles. Standard forms of homophily (that is, the tendency to make connections with people who are similar in terms of demography or status) play a very weak role in explaining which members interact with one another. Finally, our analysis illustrates clear patterns of relational change that correspond to changes in the formal structures that PIRA's leadership promoted

FIRST RADIOCARBON RESULTS OF ONEGA LAKE BOTTOM SEDIMENTS BASED ON CONVENTIONAL AND AMS METHODS

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Possible earthquake trigger for 6th century mass wasting deposit at Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania)

Lake Ohrid shared by the Republics of Albania and Macedonia is formed by a tectonically active graben within the south Balkans and suggested to be the oldest lake in Europe. Several studies have shown that the lake provides a valuable record of climatic and environmental changes and a distal tephrostratigraphic record of volcanic eruptions from Italy. Fault structures identified in seismic data demonstrate that sediments have also the potential to record tectonic activity in the region. Here, we provide an example of linking seismic and sedimentological information with tectonic activity and historical documents. Historical documents indicate that a major earthquake destroyed the city of Lychnidus (today: city of Ohrid) in the early 6th century AD. Multichannel seismic profiles, parametric sediment echosounder profiles, and a 10.08m long sediment record from the western part of the lake indicate a 2m thick mass wasting deposit, which is tentatively correlated with this earthquake. The mass wasting deposit is chronologically well constrained, as it directly overlays the AD472/AD 512 tephra. Moreover, radiocarbon dates and cross correlation with other sediment sequences with similar geochemical characteristics of the Holocene indicate that the mass wasting event took place prior to the onset of the Medieval Warm Period, and is attributed it to one of the known earthquakes in the region in the early 6th century AD

Selective preservation of organic matter in marine environments; processes and impact on the sedimentary record

© The Authors, 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 7 (2010): 483-511, doi: 10.5194/bg-7-483-2010The present paper is the result of a workshop sponsored by the DFG Research Center/Cluster of Excellence MARUM "The Ocean in the Earth System", the International Graduate College EUROPROX, and the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research. The workshop brought together specialists on organic matter degradation and on proxy-based environmental reconstruction. The paper deals with the main theme of the workshop, understanding the impact of selective degradation/preservation of organic matter (OM) in marine sediments on the interpretation of the fossil record. Special attention is paid to (A) the influence of the molecular composition of OM in relation to the biological and physical depositional environment, including new methods for determining complex organic biomolecules, (B) the impact of selective OM preservation on the interpretation of proxies for marine palaeoceanographic and palaeoclimatic reconstruction, and (C) past marine productivity and selective preservation in sediments. It appears that most of the factors influencing OM preservation have been identified, but many of the mechanisms by which they operate are partly, or even fragmentarily, understood. Some factors have not even been taken carefully into consideration. This incomplete understanding of OM breakdown hampers proper assessment of the present and past carbon cycle as well as the interpretation of OM based proxies and proxies affected by OM breakdown. To arrive at better proxy-based reconstructions "deformation functions" are needed, taking into account the transport and diagenesis-related molecular and atomic modifications following proxy formation. Some emerging proxies for OM degradation may shed light on such deformation functions. The use of palynomorph concentrations and selective changes in assemblage composition as models for production and preservation of OM may correct for bias due to selective degradation. Such quantitative assessment of OM degradation may lead to more accurate reconstruction of past productivity and bottom water oxygenation. Given the cost and effort associated with programs to recover sediment cores for paleoclimatological studies, as well as with generating proxy records, it would seem wise to develop a detailed sedimentological and diagenetic context for interpretation of these records. With respect to the latter, parallel acquisition of data that inform on the fidelity of the proxy signatures and reveal potential diagenetic biases would be of clear value.We acknowledge generous financial support by the DFG Research Center/Cluster of Excellence MARUM “The Ocean in the Earth System”, the International Graduate College EUROPROX and the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research enabling the realisation of the “Workshop on Selective Preservation of Organic Matter: Processes and Impact on the Fossil Record” which formed the basis of this paper. GJMV acknowledges support by the German Science Foundation (DFG grant VE486/2)

Environmental change during MIS4 and MIS 3 opened corridors in the Horn of Africa for <i>Homo sapiens</i> expansion

Archaeological findings, numerical human dispersal models and genome analyses suggest several time windows in the past 200 kyr (thousands of years ago) when anatomically modern humans (AMH) dispersed out of Africa into the Levant and/or Arabia. From close to the key hominin site of Omo-Kibish, we provide near continuous proxy evidence for environmental changes in lake sediment cores from the Chew Bahir basin, south Ethiopia. The data show highly variable hydroclimate conditions from 116 to 66 kyr BP with rapid shifts from very wet to extreme aridity. The wet phases coincide with the timing of the North African Humid Periods during MIS5, as defined by Nile discharge records from the eastern Mediterranean. The subsequent record at Chew Bahir suggests stable regional hydrological setting between 58 and 32 kyr (MIS4 and 3), which facilitated the development of more habitable ecosystems, albeit in generally dry climatic conditions. This shift, from more to less variable hydroclimate, may help account for the timing of later dispersal events of AMH out of Africa

Compound-specific carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions of chlorophyll a and its derivatives reveal the eutrophication history of Lake Zurich (Switzerland)

© 2016 Elsevier B.V. To reconstruct the impact of eutrophication on phototrophic communities and the biogeochemical cycling of carbon and nitrogen in the surface water, we investigated the distributions and carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions (d13C and d15N values) of chlorins in the sediments of Lake Zurich. The chlorin distributions were dominated by chlorophyll a (Chl a) and its derivatives, which reflect rapid degradation to the pheopigments in the water column and sediments of the lake. The d13C values of these sedimentary chlorins followed the historical trends of eutrophication and reoligotrophication, except in the surface sediments, which were characterised by higher relative contributions of aged, redeposited organic matter (OM). The d13C values of the sedimentary chlorins together with bulk sediment d13C values and C/N ratios indicate that the phototrophic communities in the lake used a 13C-depleted carbon source, which is mainly of aquatic origin. The d15N values of chlorins reflect the predominance of nitrate assimilating phototrophs, especially the non-N2-fixing cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens prevalent during sediment deposition. Shifts in d15N values of Chl a followed mostly the trends in eutrophication and reoligotrophication, but were also affected by community assemblage shifts to diatoms and/or other cyanobacteria at the end of the 19th century and during the eutrophication maximum in the 1970s.The lower d15NChl-a values in the surface sediments coincide with increasing nitrogen to phosphorus ratios and reduced water column mixing that characterise the recent reoligotrophication period and may explain the predominance of P. rubescens in Lake Zurich. In contrast, the higher contributions of laterally transported OM explains the large offset of d15N values of the pheopigments relative to Chl a, which is supported by the high radiocarbon age of the surface sediments

Carrots, Sticks, and Insurgent Targeting of Civilians

How do conciliatory and coercive counterinsurgency tactics affect militant group violence against civilians? Scholars of civil war increasingly seek to understand intentional civilian targeting, often referred to as terrorism. Extant research emphasizes group weakness, or general state attributes such as regime type. We focus on terrorism as violent communication and as a response to government actions. State tactics toward groups, carrots and sticks, should be important for explaining insurgent terror. We test the argument using new data on terrorism by insurgent groups, with many time-varying variables, covering 1998 through 2012. Results suggest government coercion against a group is associated with subsequent terrorism by that group. However, this is only the case for larger insurgent groups, which raises questions about the notion of terrorism as a weapon of the weak. Carrots are often negatively related to group terrorism. Other factors associated with insurgent terrorism include holding territory, ethnic motivation, and social service provision