Buzz Factor or Innovation Potential: What Explains Cryptocurrencies' Returns?

Cryptocurrencies have become increasingly popular since the introduction of bitcoin in 2009. In this paper, we identify factors associated with variations in cryptocurrencies' market values. In the past, researchers argued that the "buzz" surrounding cryptocurrencies in online media explained their price variations. But this observation obfuscates the notion that cryptocurrencies, unlike fiat currencies, are technologies entailing a true innovation potential. By using, for the first time, a unique measure of innovation potential, we find that the latter is in fact the most important factor associated with increases in cryptocurrency returns. By contrast, we find that the buzz surrounding cryptocurrencies is negatively associated with returns after controlling for a variety of factors, such as supply growth and liquidity. Also interesting is our finding that a cryptocurrency's association with fraudulent activity is not negatively associated with weekly returns-a result that further qualifies the media's influence on cryptocurrencies. Finally, we find that an increase in supply is positively associated with weekly returns. Taken together, our findings show that cryptocurrencies do not behave like traditional currencies or commodities-unlike what most prior research has assumed-and depict an industry that is much more mature, and much less speculative, than has been implied by previous accounts

Organizational Adaptation

Organizational adaptation is equivocal. On the one hand, the concept is ubiquitous in management research and acts as the glue binding together the central issues of organizational change, performance, and survival. On the other hand, it lurks around in various guises (e.g., “fit,” “alignment,” “congruence,” and “strategic change”) studied from multiple theoretical streams (e.g., behavioral, resource based, and institutional) and at different levels of analysis (e.g., organization and industry levels). In a novel approach to reviewing 443 adaptation articles that leverages both computational and hand-coded analysis, we produce an interactive visual of the themes most studied by adaptation scholars. We inductively draw out a definition of adaptation as intentional decision making undertaken by organizational members, leading to observable actions that aim to reduce the distance between an organization and its economic and institutional environments. We then review the literature across three main areas of inquiry and six theoretical perspectives that surfaced from our analysis and identify 11 difficulties that have hampered adaptation research in the past 50 years. Our review suggests ways to address these difficulties to enable future research to develop and cumulate

On the use of dislocations to model interseismic strain and stress build-up at intracontinental thrust faults

Creeping dislocations in an elastic half-space are commonly used to model interseismic deformation at subduction zones, and might also apply to major intracontinental thrust faults such as the Main Himalayan Thrust. Here, we compare such models with a more realistic 2-D finite element model that accounts for the mechanical layering of the continental lithosphere and surface processes, and that was found to fit all available constraints on interseismic and long-term surface displacements. These can also be fitted satisfactorily from dislocation models. The conventional back-slip model, commonly used for subduction zones, may, however, lead to a biased inference about the geometry of the locked portion of the thrust fault. We therefore favour the use of a creeping buried dislocation that simulates the ductile shear zone in the lower crust. A limitation of dislocation models is that the mechanical response of the lithosphere to the growth of the topography by bending of the elastic cores and ductile flow in the lower crust cannot be easily introduced. Fortunately these effects can be neglected because we may assume, to first order, a stationary topography. Moreover, we show that not only can dislocation models be used to adjust surface displacements but, with some caution, they can also provide a physically sound rationale to interpret interseismic microseismicity in terms of stress variations

Estimating the incidence of equine viral arteritis and the sensitivity of its surveillance in the French breeding stock

Equine viral arteritis (EVA) may have serious economic impact on the equine industry. For this reason, it is monitored in many countries, especially in breeding stock, to avoid its spread during breeding activities. In France, surveillance is mainly based on serological tests, since mares are not vaccinated, but difficulties in interpreting certain series of results may impair the estimation of the number of outbreaks. In this study, we propose specific rules for identifying seroconversion in order to estimate the number of outbreaks that were detected by the breeding stock surveillance component (BSSC) in France between 2006 and 2013. A consensus among multidisciplinary experts was reached to consider seroconversion as a change in antibody titer from negative to at least 32, or as an eight-fold or greater increase in antibody level. Using these rules, 239 cases and 177 outbreaks were identified. Subsequently, we calculated the BSSC's sensitivity as the ratio of the number of detected outbreaks to the total number of outbreaks that occurred in breeding stock (including unreported outbreaks) estimated using a capture-recapture model. The total number of outbreaks was estimated at 215 (95% credible interval 195-249) and the surveillance sensitivity at 82% (CrI95% 71-91). Our results confirm EVA circulation in French breeding stock, show that neutralizing antibodies can persist up to eight years in naturally infected mares and suggest that certain mares have been reinfected. This study shows that the sensitivity of the BSSC is relatively high and supports its relevance to prevent the disease spreading through mating

Preformed expression of defense is a hallmark of partial resistance to rice blast fungal pathogen Magnaporthe oryzae

Background: Partial resistance to plant pathogens is extensively used in breeding programs since it could contribute to resistance durability. Partial resistance often builds up during plant development and confers quantitative and usually broad-spectrum resistance. However, very little is known on the mechanisms underlying partial resistance. Partial resistance is often explained by poorly effective induction of plant defense systems. By exploring rice natural diversity, we asked whether expression of defense systems before infection could explain partial resistance towards the major fungal pathogen Magnaporthe oryzae. The constitutive expression of 21 defense-related genes belonging to the defense system was monitored in 23 randomly sampled rice cultivars for which partial resistance was measured. Results: We identified a strong correlation between the expression of defense-related genes before infection and partial resistance. Only a weak correlation was found between the induction of defense genes and partial resistance. Increasing constitutive expression of defense-related genes also correlated with the establishment of partial resistance during plant development. Some rice genetic sub-groups displayed a particular pattern of constitutive expression, suggesting a strong natural polymorphism for constitutive expression of defense. Constitutive levels of hormones like salicylic acid and ethylene cannot explain constitutive expression of defense. We could identify an area of the genome that contributes to explain both preformed defense and partial resistance. Conclusion: These results indicate that constitutive expression of defense-related genes is likely responsible for a large part of partial resistance in rice. The finding of this preformed defense system should help guide future breeding programs and open the possibility to identify the molecular mechanisms behind partial resistance. ( Résumé d'auteur

Sharp error terms for return time statistics under mixing conditions

We describe the statistics of repetition times of a string of symbols in a stochastic process. Denote by T(A) the time elapsed until the process spells the finite string A and by S(A) the number of consecutive repetitions of A. We prove that, if the length of the string grows unbondedly, (1) the distribution of T(A), when the process starts with A, is well aproximated by a certain mixture of the point measure at the origin and an exponential law, and (2) S(A) is approximately geometrically distributed. We provide sharp error terms for each of these approximations. The errors we obtain are point-wise and allow to get also approximations for all the moments of T(A) and S(A). To obtain (1) we assume that the process is phi-mixing while to obtain (2) we assume the convergence of certain contidional probabilities

Magnetic hysteresis in the Cu-Al-Mn intermetallic alloy: experiments and modeling

We study isothermal magnetization processes in the Cu-Al-Mn intermetallic alloy. Hysteresis is observed at temperatures below the spin-freezing of the system. The characteristics of the hysteresis cycles as a function of temperature and Mn content (magnetic element) are obtained. At low temperature (5 K) a change from smooth to sharp cycles is observed with increasing Mn content, which is related to the decrease of configurational disorder. We also study a zero-temperature site-diluted Ising model, suitable for the description of this Cu-Al-Mn system. The model reproduces the main features of the hysteresis loops observed experimentally. It exhibits a disorder-induced critical line separating a disordered phase from an incipient ferromagnetic ground-state. The comparison between the model and the experiments allows to conclude that the observed change in the experimental hysteresis loops can be understood within the framework of the theory of disorder-induced criticality in fluctuationless first-order phase transitions.Comment: 30 pages, 15 eps figures, 2 tables. To appear Phys. Rev. B 59 (June 1999

Magnetic hysteresis in the Cu-Al-Mn intermetallic alloy: experiments and modeling

We study isothermal magnetization processes in the Cu-Al-Mn intermetallic alloy. Hysteresis is observed at temperatures below the spin-freezing of the system. The characteristics of the hysteresis cycles as a function of temperature and Mn content (magnetic element) are obtained. At low temperature (5 K) a change from smooth to sharp cycles is observed with increasing Mn content, which is related to the decrease of configurational disorder. We also study a zero-temperature site-diluted Ising model, suitable for the description of this Cu-Al-Mn system. The model reproduces the main features of the hysteresis loops observed experimentally. It exhibits a disorder-induced critical line separating a disordered phase from an incipient ferromagnetic ground-state. The comparison between the model and the experiments allows to conclude that the observed change in the experimental hysteresis loops can be understood within the framework of the theory of disorder-induced criticality in fluctuationless first-order phase transitions.Comment: 30 pages, 15 eps figures, 2 tables. To appear Phys. Rev. B 59 (June 1999

On the athermal character of structural phase transitions

The significance of thermal fluctuations on nucleation in structural first-order phase transitions has been examined. The prototype case of martensitic transitions has been experimentally investigated by means of acoustic emission techniques. We propose a model based on the mean first-passage time to account for the experimental observations. Our study provides a unified framework to establish the conditions for isothermal and athermal transitions to be observed.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, accepted in Phys. Rev. Let