Predation effects on mean time to extinction under demographic stochasticity

Methods for predicting the probability and timing of a species' extinction are typically based on a combination of theoretical models and empirical data, and focus on single species population dynamics. Of course, species also interact with each other, forming more or less complex networks of interactions. Models to assess extinction risk often lack explicit incorporation of these interspecific interactions. We study a birth and death process in which the death rate includes an effect from predation. This predation rate is included via a general nonlinear expression for the functional response of predation to prey density. We investigate the effects of the foraging parameters (e.g. attack rate and handling time) on the mean time to extinction. Mean time to extinction varies by orders of magnitude when we alter the foraging parameters, even when we exclude the effects of these parameters on the equilibrium population size. In particular we observe an exponential dependence of the mean time to extinction on handling time. These findings clearly show that accounting for the nature of interspecific interactions is likely to be critically important when estimating extinction risk.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures; Typos removed. For further discussion about the paper go to http://purl.org/net/extinctio

Increased power of mixed models facilitates association mapping of 10 loci for metabolic traits in an isolated population

The potential benefits of using population isolates in genetic mapping, such as reduced genetic, phenotypic and environmental heterogeneity, are offset by the challenges posed by the large amounts of direct and cryptic relatedness in these populations confounding basic assumptions of independence. We have evaluated four representative specialized methods for association testing in the presence of relatedness; (i) within-family (ii) within- and between-family and (iii) mixed-models methods, using simulated traits for 2906 subjects with known genome-wide genotype data from an extremely isolated population, the Island of Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia. We report that mixed models optimally extract association information from such samples, demonstrating 88% power to rank the true variant as among the top 10 genome-wide with 56% achieving genome-wide significance, a >80% improvement over the other methods, and demonstrate that population isolates have similar power to non-isolate populations for observing variants of known effects. We then used the mixed-model method to reanalyze data for 17 published phenotypes relating to metabolic traits and electrocardiographic measures, along with another 8 previously unreported. We replicate nine genome-wide significant associations with known loci of plasma cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, thyroid stimulating hormone, homocysteine, C-reactive protein and uric acid, with only one detected in the previous analysis of the same traits. Further, we leveraged shared identity-by-descent genetic segments in the region of the uric acid locus to fine-map the signal, refining the known locus by a factor of 4. Finally, we report a novel associations for height (rs17629022, P< 2.1 × 10−8

Genetic risk prediction of atrial fibrillation

Background—Atrial fibrillation (AF) has a substantial genetic basis. Identification of individuals at greatest AF risk could minimize the incidence of cardioembolic stroke. Methods—To determine whether genetic data can stratify risk for development of AF, we examined associations between AF genetic risk scores and incident AF in five prospective studies comprising 18,919 individuals of European ancestry. We examined associations between AF genetic risk scores and ischemic stroke in a separate study of 509 ischemic stroke cases (202 cardioembolic [40%]) and 3,028 referents. Scores were based on 11 to 719 common variants (≥5%) associated with AF at P-values ranging from &lt;1x10-3 to &lt;1x10-8 in a prior independent genetic association study. Results—Incident AF occurred in 1,032 (5.5%) individuals. AF genetic risk scores were associated with new-onset AF after adjusting for clinical risk factors. The pooled hazard ratio for incident AF for the highest versus lowest quartile of genetic risk scores ranged from 1.28 (719 variants; 95%CI, 1.13-1.46; P=1.5x10-4) to 1.67 (25 variants; 95%CI, 1.47-1.90; P=9.3x10-15). Discrimination of combined clinical and genetic risk scores varied across studies and scores (maximum C statistic, 0.629-0.811; maximum ΔC statistic from clinical score alone, 0.009-0.017). AF genetic risk was associated with stroke in age- and sex-adjusted models. For example, individuals in the highest versus lowest quartile of a 127-variant score had a 2.49-fold increased odds of cardioembolic stroke (95%CI, 1.39-4.58; P=2.7x10-3). The effect persisted after excluding individuals (n=70) with known AF (odds ratio, 2.25; 95%CI, 1.20-4.40; P=0.01). Conclusions—Comprehensive AF genetic risk scores were associated with incident AF beyond associations for clinical AF risk factors, though offered small improvements in discrimination. AF genetic risk was also associated with cardioembolic stroke in age- and sex-adjusted analyses. Efforts are warranted to determine whether AF genetic risk may improve identification of subclinical AF or help distinguish between stroke mechanisms

Effects of the coronary artery disease associated LPA and 9p21 loci on risk of aortic valve stenosis

Background: Aortic valve stenosis (AVS) and coronary artery disease (CAD) have a significant genetic contribution and commonly co-exist. To compare and contrast genetic determinants of the two diseases, we investigated associations of the LPA and 9p21 loci, i.e. the two strongest CAD risk loci, with risk of AVS. Methods: We genotyped the CAD-associated variants at the LPA (rs10455872) and 9p21 loci (rs1333049) in the GeneCAST (Genetics of Calcific Aortic STenosis) Consortium and conducted a meta-analysis for their association with AVS. Cases and controls were stratified by CAD status. External validation of findings was undertaken in five cohorts including 7880 cases and 851,152 controls. Results: In the meta-analysis including 4651 cases and 8231 controls the CAD-associated allele at the LPA locus was associated with increased risk of AVS (OR 1.37; 95%CI 1.24–1.52, p = 6.9 × 10−10) with a larger effect size in those without CAD (OR 1.53; 95%CI 1.31–1.79) compared to those with CAD (OR 1.27; 95%CI 1.12–1.45). The CAD-associated allele at 9p21 was associated with a trend towards lower risk of AVS (OR 0.93; 95%CI 0.88–0.99, p = 0.014). External validation confirmed the association of the LPA risk allele with risk of AVS (OR 1.37; 95%CI 1.27–1.47), again with a higher effect size in those without CAD. The small protective effect of the 9p21 CAD risk allele could not be replicated (OR 0.98; 95%CI 0.95–1.02). Conclusions: Our study confirms the association of the LPA locus with risk of AVS, with a higher effect in those without concomitant CAD. Overall, 9p21 was not associated with AVS

Association of lipid-related genetic variants with the incidence of atrial fibrillation: The AFGen consortium

Background: Several studies have shown associations between blood lipid levels and the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). To test the potential effect of blood lipids with AF risk, we assessed whether previously developed lipid gene scores, used as instrumental variables, are associated with the incidence of AF in 7 large cohorts. Methods: We analyzed 64,901 individuals of European ancestry without previous AF at baseline and with lipid gene scores. Lipid-specific gene scores, based on loci significantly associated with lipid levels, were calculated. Additionally, non-pleiotropic gene scores for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLc) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLc) were calculated using SNPs that were only associated with the specific lipid fraction. Cox models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of AF per 1-standard deviation (SD) increase of each lipid gene score. Results: During a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 5434 (8.4%) incident AF cases were identified. After meta-analysis, the HDLc, LDLc, total cholesterol, and triglyceride gene scores were not associated with incidence of AF. Multivariable-adjusted HR (95% CI) were 1.01 (0.98-1.03); 0.98 (0.96-1.01); 0.98 (0.95-1.02); 0.99 (0.97-1.02), respectively. Similarly, non-pleiotropic HDLc and LDLc gene scores showed no association with incident AF: HR (95% CI) = 1.00 (0.97-1.03); 1.01 (0.99-1.04). Conclusions In this large cohort study of individuals of European ancestry, gene scores for lipid fractions were not associated with incident AF

Discovery of Genetic Variation on Chromosome 5q22 Associated with Mortality in Heart Failure

Failure of the human heart to maintain sufficient output of blood for the demands of the body, heart failure, is a common condition with high mortality even with modern therapeutic alternatives. To identify molecular determinant

A transient presence: black visitors and sojourners in Imperial Germany, 1884-1914

The onset of German colonial rule in Africa brought increasing numbers of Black men and women to Germany. Pre-1914 the vast majority of these Africans can best be described as visitors or sojourners and the Black population as a whole was a transient one. This makes recovering their presence in the archival record exceptionally difficult and it is not surprising that the existing historiography almost exclusively focuses on individual biographies of well documented lives. Through utilising a number of newly digitised archival materials, particularly the Hamburg Passenger Lists, this article draws upon a database with information on 1092 individuals from sub-Saharan Africa who spent time in Germany over the period 1884-1914 in order to add considerable bread and depth to our understanding of the Black presence as a whole. It provides increasing empirical detail about the make-up and character of this fluid population - where visitors came from, why they came to Germany, their age on arrival - as well as more accurate detail on the temporal and, to a lesser extent, spatial distribution of visitors

Large-scale analyses of common and rare variants identify 12 new loci associated with atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation affects more than 33 million people worldwide and increases the risk of stroke, heart failure, and death. Fourteen genetic loci have been associated with atrial fibrillation in European and Asian ancestry groups. To further define the genetic basis of atrial fibrillation, we performed large-scale, trans-ancestry meta-analyses of common and rare variant association studies. The genome-wide association studies (GWAS) included 17,931 individuals with atrial fibrillation and 115,142 referents; the exome-wide association studies (ExWAS) and rare variant association studies (RVAS) involved 22,346 cases and 132,086 referents. We identified 12 new genetic loci that exceeded genome-wide significance, implicating genes involved in cardiac electrical and structural remodeling. Our results nearly double the number of known genetic loci for atrial fibrillation, provide insights into the molecular basis of atrial fibrillation, and may facilitate the identification of new potential targets for drug discovery

Global snow mass measurements and the effect of stratigraphic detail on inversion of microwave brightness temperatures

Snow provides large seasonal storage of freshwater, and information about the distribution of snow mass as Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is important for hydrological planning and detecting climate change impacts. Large regional disagreements remain between estimates from reanalyses, remote sensing and modelling. Assimilating passive microwave information improves SWE estimates in many regions but the assimilation must account for how microwave scattering depends on snow stratigraphy. Physical snow models can estimate snow stratigraphy, but users must consider the computational expense of model complexity versus acceptable errors. Using data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Cold Land Processes Experiment (NASA CLPX) and the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) microwave emission model of layered snowpacks, it is shown that simulations of the brightness temperature difference between 19 GHz and 37 GHz vertically polarised microwaves are consistent with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) retrievals once known stratigraphic information is used. Simulated brightness temperature differences for an individual snow profile depend on the provided stratigraphic detail. Relative to a profile defined at the 10 cm resolution of density and temperature measurements, the error introduced by simplification to a single layer of average properties increases approximately linearly with snow mass. If this brightness temperature error is converted into SWE using a traditional retrieval method then it is equivalent to ±13 mm SWE (7% of total) at a depth of 100 cm. This error is reduced to ±5.6 mm SWE (3 % of total) for a two-layer model