Slow Slip Events and Time-Dependent Variations in Locking Beneath Lower Cook Inlet of the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone

We identify a series of abrupt changes in GPS site velocities in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, in late 2004, early 2010, and late 2011. The site motions during each time period are nearly linear. The surface deformations inferred from GPS for pre-2004 and 2010–2011 are similar to each other, as are 2004–2010 and post-2011. We estimate the slip distribution on the Alaska-Aleutian subduction plate interface accounting for upper plate block rotations and interpret this toggling between two deformation patterns as caused by transient slip. We find that by allowing negative slip deficit rates (i.e., creep rates in excess of relative plate motion), the data in Lower Cook Inlet are fit significantly better during pre-2004 and 2010–2011, suggesting the occurrence of slow slip events (SSEs) there during those time periods. The earlier SSE lasted at least 9 years (observations in that area began in 1995) with Mw ~7.8. The latter SSE had almost the same area as the earlier one and a duration of ~2 years with Mw ~7.2. During 2004–2010 and post-2011, the inversions result in only positive slip deficit rates (i.e., locking) in Lower Cook Inlet. Slip rates are nearly constant during the Lower Cook Inlet SSEs, and the events start and stop abruptly. Both of these properties contrast with observations of SSEs in Upper Cook Inlet and elsewhere. The Lower Cook Inlet SSEs are consistent with previously proposed duration-magnitude scaling laws and demonstrate that slow slip events can last as long as a decade

A 15 year slow-slip event on the Sunda megathrust offshore Sumatra

In the Banyak Islands of Sumatra, coral microatoll records reveal a 15 year-long reversal of interseismic vertical displacement from subsidence to uplift between 1966 and 1981. To explain these coral observations, we test four hypotheses, including regional sea level changes and various tectonic mechanisms. Our results show that the coral observations likely reflect a 15 year-long slow-slip event (SSE) on the Sunda megathrust. This long-duration SSE exceeds the duration of previously reported SSEs and demonstrates the importance of multidecade geodetic records in illuminating the full spectrum of megathrust slip behavior at subduction zones

Thermotectonic History of the Kluane Ranges and Evolution of the Eastern Denali Fault Zone in Southwestern Yukon, Canada

Exhumation and landscape evolution along strike‐slip fault systems reflect tectonic processes that accommodate and partition deformation in orogenic settings. We present 17 new apatite (U‐Th)/He (He), zircon He, apatite fission‐track (FT), and zircon FT dates from the eastern Denali fault zone (EDFZ) that bounds the Kluane Ranges in Yukon, Canada. The dates elucidate patterns of deformation along the EDFZ. Mean apatite He, apatite FT, zircon He, and zircon FT sample dates range within ~26–4, ~110–12, ~94–28, and ~137–83 Ma, respectively. A new zircon U‐Pb date of 113.9 ± 1.7 Ma (2σ) complements existing geochronology and aids in interpretation of low‐temperature thermochronometry data patterns. Samples ≤2 km southwest of the EDFZ trace yield the youngest thermochronometry dates. Multimethod thermochronometry, zircon He date‐effective U patterns, and thermal history modeling reveal rapid cooling ~95–75 Ma, slow cooling ~75–30 Ma, and renewed rapid cooling ~30 Ma to present. The magnitude of net surface uplift constrained by published paleobotanical data, exhumation, and total surface uplift from ~30 Ma to present are ~1, ~2–6, and ~1–7 km, respectively. Exhumation is highest closest to the EDFZ trace but substantially lower than reported for the central Denali fault zone. We infer exhumation and elevation changes associated with ~95–75 Ma terrane accretion and EDFZ activity, relief degradation from ~75–30 Ma, and ~30 Ma to present exhumation and surface uplift as a response to flat‐slab subduction and transpressional deformation. Integrated results reveal new constraints on landscape evolution within the Kluane Ranges directly tied to the EDFZ during the last ~100 Myr

Co-Seismic Displacements of the 1992 Landers Earthquake Sequence

We present co-seismic displacement vectors derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of 92 stations in southern California. These GPS results are combined with five well-determined GPS displacement vectors from continuously tracking stations of the Permanent GPS Geodetic Array, as well as line-length changes from USGS Geodolite and two-color laser trilateration observations, to determine a self-consistent set of geodetic data for the earthquake. These combined displacements are modeled by an elastic dislocation representation of the primary fault rupture planes. On average, the model residuals are about twice the estimated measurement errors

Precise measurements help gauge Pacific Northwest\u27s Earthquake potential

Except for the recent rumblings of a few moderate earthquakes and the eruption of Mt. St. Helen\u27s, all has been relatively quiet on the Pacific Northwestern front. The Cascades region in the Pacific Northwest, a sporadically active earthquake and volcanic zone, still has great seismic potential [Atwater, 1987], as comparisons with other subduction zones around the world have shown [Heaton and Kanamori, 1984]. Recent tsunami propagation models [Satake, 1996] and tree ring studies suggest that the last great Cascadia earthquake occurred in the winter of 1700 A.D. and had a magnitude of −8.9. The North Cascades or Wenatchee earthquake followed in 1872. With an estimated magnitude greater than 7, it was the largest earthquake in the written history of Washington and Oregon

Heterogeneous coupling of the Sumatran megathrust constrained by geodetic and paleogeodetic measurements

Geodetic and paleogeodetic measurements of interseismic strain above the Sumatran portion of the Sunda subduction zone reveal a heterogeneous pattern of coupling. Annual banding in corals provides vertical rates of deformation spanning the last half of the 20th century, and repeated GPS surveys between 1991 and 2001 and continuous measurements at GPS stations operated since 2002 provide horizontal velocities. Near the equator, the megathrust is locked over a narrow width of only a few tens of kilometers. In contrast, the locked fault zone is up to about 175 km wide in areas where great interplate earthquakes have occurred in the past. Formal inversion of the data reveals that these strongly coupled patches are roughly coincident with asperities that ruptured during these events. The correlation is most spectacular for rupture of the M_w 8.7 Nias-Simeulue earthquake of 2005, which released half of the moment deficit that had accumulated since its previous rupture in 1861, suggesting that this earthquake was overdue. Beneath the Mentawai islands, strong coupling is observed within the overlapping rupture areas of the great earthquakes of 1797 and 1833. The accumulated slip deficit since these events is slowly reaching the amount of slip that occurred during the 1833 earthquake but already exceeds the slip that occurred during the 1797 earthquake. Thus, rerupture of part of the Mentawai patch in September 2007 was not a surprise. In contrast, coupling is low below the Batu islands near the equator and around Enggano island at about 5°S, where only moderate earthquakes (M_w < 8.0) have occurred in the past two centuries. The correlation of large seismic asperities with patches that are locked during the interseismic period suggests that they are persistent features. This interpretation is reinforced by the fact that the large locked patches and great ruptures occur beneath persistent geomorphologic features, the largest outer arc islands. Depth- and convergence-rate-dependent temperature might influence the pattern of coupling, through its effect on the rheology of the plate interface, but other influences are required to account for the observed along-strike heterogeneity of coupling. In particular, subduction of the Investigator Fracture Zone could be the cause for the low coupling near the equator

Geodetic Constraints on San Francisco Bay Area Fault Slip Rates and Potential Seismogenic Asperities on the Partially Creeping Hayward Fault

The Hayward fault in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) is sometimes considered unusual among continental faults for exhibiting significant aseismic creep during the interseismic phase of the seismic cycle while also generating sufficient elastic strain to produce major earthquakes. Imaging the spatial variation in interseismic fault creep on the Hayward fault is complicated because of the interseismic strain accumulation associated with nearby faults in the SFBA, where the relative motion between the Pacific plate and the Sierra block is partitioned across closely spaced subparallel faults. To estimate spatially variable creep on the Hayward fault, we interpret geodetic observations with a three-dimensional kinematically consistent block model of the SFBA fault system. Resolution tests reveal that creep rate variations with a length scale of \u3c15 km are poorly resolved below 7 km depth. In addition, creep at depth may be sensitive to assumptions about the kinematic consistency of fault slip rate models. Differential microplate motions result in a slip rate of 6.7 ± 0.8 mm/yr on the Hayward fault, and we image along-strike variations in slip deficit rate at ∼15 km length scales shallower than 7 km depth. Similar to previous studies, we identify a strongly coupled asperity with a slip deficit rate of up to 4 mm/yr on the central Hayward fault that is spatially correlated with the mapped surface trace of the 1868 MW = 6.9–7.0 Hayward earthquake and adjacent to gabbroic fault surfaces

EON-ROSE and the Canadian Cordillera Array – Building Bridges to Span Earth System Science in Canada

EON-ROSE (Earth-System Observing Network - Réseau d’Observation du Système terrestrE) is a new initiative for a pan-Canadian research collaboration to holistically examine Earth systems from the ionosphere into the core. The Canadian Cordillera Array (CC Array) is the pilot phase, and will extend across the Cordillera from the Beaufort Sea to the U.S. border. The vision for EON-ROSE is to install a network of telemetered observatories to monitor solid Earth, environmental and atmospheric processes. EON-ROSE is an inclusive, combined effort of Canadian universities, federal, provincial and territorial government agencies, industry, and international collaborators. Brainstorming sessions and several workshops have been held since May 2016. The first station will be installed at Kluane Lake Research Station in southwestern Yukon during the summer of 2018. The purpose of this report is to provide a framework for continued discussion and development.RÉSUMÉEON-ROSE (Earth-System Observing Network - Réseau d’Observation du Système terrestrE) est une nouvelle initiative de collaboration de recherche pancanadienne visant à étudier de manière holistique les systèmes terrestres, depuis l’ionosphère jusqu’au noyau. Le Réseau canadien de la cordillère (CC Array) en est la phase pilote, laquelle couvrira toute la Cordillère, de la mer de Beaufort jusqu’à la frontière étasunienne. L’objectif d’EON-ROSE est d’installer un réseau d’observatoires télémétriques pour suivre en continu les processusterrestres, environnementaux et atmosphériques. EON-ROSE est un effort combiné et inclusif des universités canadiennes, des organismes gouvernementaux fédéraux, provinciaux et territoriaux, de l’industrie et de collaborateurs internationaux. Des séances de remue-méninges et plusieurs ateliers ont été tenus depuis mai 2016. La première station sera installée à la station de recherche du lac Kluane, dans le sud-ouest du Yukon, au cours de l’été 2018. Le but du présent rapport est de fournir un cadre de discussion et de développement continu

Partial rupture of a locked patch of the Sumatra megathrust during the 2007 earthquake sequence

The great Sumatra–Andaman earthquake and tsunami of 2004 was a dramatic reminder of the importance of understanding the seismic and tsunami hazards of subduction zones [1,2,3,4]. In March 2005, the Sunda megathrust ruptured again, producing an event [5] of moment magnitude (Mw) 8.6 south of the 2004 rupture area, which was the site of a similar event in 1861 (ref. 6). Concern was then focused on the Mentawai area, where large earthquakes had occurred in 1797 (Mw = 8.8) and 1833 (Mw = 9.0) [6,7]. Two earthquakes, one of Mw = 8.4 and, twelve hours later, one of Mw = 7.9, indeed occurred there on 12 September 2007. Here we show that these earthquakes ruptured only a fraction of the area ruptured in 1833 and consist of distinct asperities within a patch of the megathrust that had remained locked in the interseismic period. This indicates that the same portion of a megathrust can rupture in different patterns depending on whether asperities break as isolated seismic events or cooperate to produce a larger rupture. This variability probably arises from the influence of non-permanent barriers, zones with locally lower pre-stress due to the past earthquakes. The stress state of the portion of the Sunda megathrust that had ruptured in 1833 and 1797 was probably not adequate for the development of a single large rupture in 2007. The moment released in 2007 amounts to only a fraction both of that released in 1833 and of the deficit of moment that had accumulated as a result of interseismic strain since 1833. The potential for a large megathrust event in the Mentawai area thus remains large

Short-Term Forecasting and Detection of Explosions During the 2016–2017 Eruption of Bogoslof Volcano, Alaska

We describe a multidisciplinary approach to forecast, rapidly detect, and characterize explosive events during the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, a back-arc shallow submarine volcano in Alaska’s Aleutian arc. The eruptive sequence began in December 2016 and included about 70 discrete explosive events. Because the volcano has no local monitoring stations, we used distant stations on the nearest volcanoes, Okmok (54 km) and Makushin (72 km), combined with regional infrasound sensors and lightning detection from the Worldwide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). Pre-eruptive seismicity was detected for 12 events during the first half of the eruption; for all other events co-eruptive signals allowed for detection only. Monitoring of activity used a combination of scheduled checks combined with automated alarms. Alarms triggered on real-time data included real-time seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM); infrasound from several arrays, the closest being on Okmok; and lightning strokes detected from WWLLN within a 20-km radius of the volcano. During periods of unrest, a multidisciplinary response team of four people fulfilled specific roles to evaluate geophysical and remote-sensing data, run event-specific ash-cloud dispersion models, ensure interagency coordination, and develop and distribute of formalized warning products. Using this approach, for events that produced ash clouds ≥7.5 km above sea level, Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) called emergency response partners 15 min, and issued written notices 30 min, after event onset (mean times). Factors that affect timeliness of written warnings include event size and number of data streams available; bigger events and more data both decrease uncertainty and allow for faster warnings. In remote areas where airborne ash is the primary hazard, the approach used at Bogoslof is an effective strategy for hazard mitigation