862 research outputs found
The changing international network of sovereign debt and financial institutions
We develop a theoretical and empirical framework for the connections between global financial and sovereign CDS markets. The transmission of shocks is shown to affect the systemic default probability of the international network. The network is found to be "robust but fragile", meaning that a shock can result in the propagation of crises. Between 2003 and 2013, the probability of default in the network in the face of potentially poor investment outcomes and/or sovereign bond haircuts changes sub-stantially. The results suggest that it is the interconnectedness of the financial and sovereign debt markets that provides increased protection against financial fragility
On the correspondence between data revision and trend-cycle decomposition
This paper places the data revision model of Jacobs and van Norden (2011) within a class of trend-cycle decompositions relating directly to the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. In both these approaches identifying restrictions on the covariance matrix under simple and realistic conditions may produce a smoothed estimate of the underlying series which is more volatile than the observed series
Kinetic Vlasov Simulations of collisionless magnetic Reconnection
A fully kinetic Vlasov simulation of the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM)
Magnetic Reconnection Challenge is presented. Good agreement is found with
previous kinetic simulations using particle in cell (PIC) codes, confirming
both the PIC and the Vlasov code. In the latter the complete distribution
functions () are discretised on a numerical grid in phase space.
In contrast to PIC simulations, the Vlasov code does not suffer from numerical
noise and allows a more detailed investigation of the distribution functions.
The role of the different contributions of Ohm's law are compared by
calculating each of the terms from the moments of the . The important role
of the off--diagonal elements of the electron pressure tensor could be
confirmed. The inductive electric field at the X--Line is found to be dominated
by the non--gyrotropic electron pressure, while the bulk electron inertia is of
minor importance. Detailed analysis of the electron distribution function
within the diffusion region reveals the kinetic origin of the non--gyrotropic
terms
The interaction between transpolar arcs and cusp spots
Transpolar arcs and cusp spots are both auroral phenomena which occur when
the interplanetary magnetic field is northward. Transpolar arcs are associated
with magnetic reconnection in the magnetotail, which closes magnetic flux and
results in a "wedge" of closed flux which remains trapped, embedded in the
magnetotail lobe. The cusp spot is an indicator of lobe reconnection at the
high-latitude magnetopause; in its simplest case, lobe reconnection
redistributes open flux without resulting in any net change in the open flux
content of the magnetosphere. We present observations of the two phenomena
interacting--i.e., a transpolar arc intersecting a cusp spot during part of its
lifetime. The significance of this observation is that lobe reconnection can
have the effect of opening closed magnetotail flux. We argue that such events
should not be rare
Toward detailed prominence seismology - I. Computing accurate 2.5D magnetohydrodynamic equilibria
Context. Prominence seismology exploits our knowledge of the linear
eigenoscillations for representative magnetohydro- dynamic models of filaments.
To date, highly idealized models for prominences have been used, especially
with respect to the overall magnetic configurations.
Aims. We initiate a more systematic survey of filament wave modes, where we
consider full multi-dimensional models with twisted magnetic fields
representative of the surrounding magnetic flux rope. This requires the ability
to compute accurate 2.5 dimensional magnetohydrodynamic equilibria that balance
Lorentz forces, gravity, and pressure gradients, while containing density
enhancements (static or in motion).
Methods. The governing extended Grad-Shafranov equation is discussed, along
with an analytic prediction for circular flux ropes for the Shafranov shift of
the central magnetic axis due to gravity. Numerical equilibria are computed
with a finite element-based code, demonstrating fourth order accuracy on an
explicitly known, non-trivial test case.
Results. The code is then used to construct more realistic prominence
equilibria, for all three possible choices of a free flux-function. We quantify
the influence of gravity, and generate cool condensations in hot cavities, as
well as multi- layered prominences.
Conclusions. The internal flux rope equilibria computed here have the
prerequisite numerical accuracy to allow a yet more advanced analysis of the
complete spectrum of linear magnetohydrodynamic perturbations, as will be
demonstrated in the companion paper.Comment: Accepted by Astronomy & Astrophysics, 15 pages, 15 figure
Forecasting output gaps in the G‐7 countries: The role of correlated Innovations and structural breaks.
Trend GDP and output gaps play an important role in fiscal and monetary policy
formulation, often including the need for forecasts. In this paper we focus on fore-
casting trend GDP and output gaps with Beveridge-Nelson (1981) trend-cycle
decompositions and investigate how these are affected by assumptions concern-
ing correlated innovations and structural breaks. We evaluate expanding win-
dows, one-step-ahead forecasts indirectly for the G-7 countries on the basis of
real GDP growth rate forecasts. We find that correlated innovations affect real
GDP growth rate forecasts positively, while allowing for structural breaks works
for some countries but not for all. In the face of uncertainty the evidence supports
that in making forecasts of trends and output gap policy makers should focus on
allowing for the correlation of shocks as an order of priority higher than unknown
structural breaks
Magnetohydrodynamics dynamical relaxation of coronal magnetic fields. II. 2D magnetic X-points
We provide a valid magnetohydrostatic equilibrium from the collapse of a 2D
X-point in the presence of a finite plasma pressure, in which the current
density is not simply concentrated in an infinitesimally thin, one-dimensional
current sheet, as found in force-free solutions. In particular, we wish to
determine if a finite pressure current sheet will still involve a singular
current, and if so, what is the nature of the singularity. We use a full MHD
code, with the resistivity set to zero, so that reconnection is not allowed, to
run a series of experiments in which an X-point is perturbed and then is
allowed to relax towards an equilibrium, via real, viscous damping forces.
Changes to the magnitude of the perturbation and the initial plasma pressure
are investigated systematically. The final state found in our experiments is a
"quasi-static" equilibrium where the viscous relaxation has completely ended,
but the peak current density at the null increases very slowly following an
asymptotic regime towards an infinite time singularity. Using a high grid
resolution allows us to resolve the current structures in this state both in
width and length. In comparison with the well known pressureless studies, the
system does not evolve towards a thin current sheet, but concentrates the
current at the null and the separatrices. The growth rate of the singularity is
found to be tD, with 0 < D < 1. This rate depends directly on the initial
plasma pressure, and decreases as the pressure is increased. At the end of our
study, we present an analytical description of the system in a quasi-static
non-singular equilibrium at a given time, in which a finite thick current layer
has formed at the null
In situ evidence for the structure of the magnetic null in a 3D reconnection event in the Earth's magnetotail
Magnetic reconnection is one of the most important processes in
astrophysical, space and laboratory plasmas. Identifying the structure around
the point at which the magnetic field lines break and subsequently reform,
known as the magnetic null point, is crucial to improving our understanding
reconnection. But owing to the inherently three-dimensional nature of this
process, magnetic nulls are only detectable through measurements obtained
simultaneously from at least four points in space. Using data collected by the
four spacecraft of the Cluster constellation as they traversed a diffusion
region in the Earth's magnetotail on 15 September, 2001, we report here the
first in situ evidence for the structure of an isolated magnetic null. The
results indicate that it has a positive-spiral structure whose spatial extent
is of the same order as the local ion inertial length scale, suggesting that
the Hall effect could play an important role in 3D reconnection dynamics.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure
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