PERFEX: Classifier Performance Explanations for Trustworthy AI Systems

Explainability of a classification model is crucial when deployed in real-world decision support systems. Explanations make predictions actionable to the user and should inform about the capabilities and limitations of the system. Existing explanation methods, however, typically only provide explanations for individual predictions. Information about conditions under which the classifier is able to support the decision maker is not available, while for instance information about when the system is not able to differentiate classes can be very helpful. In the development phase it can support the search for new features or combining models, and in the operational phase it supports decision makers in deciding e.g. not to use the system. This paper presents a method to explain the qualities of a trained base classifier, called PERFormance EXplainer (PERFEX). Our method consists of a meta tree learning algorithm that is able to predict and explain under which conditions the base classifier has a high or low error or any other classification performance metric. We evaluate PERFEX using several classifiers and datasets, including a case study with urban mobility data. It turns out that PERFEX typically has high meta prediction performance even if the base classifier is hardly able to differentiate classes, while giving compact performance explanations

Identification of Variegated Coloring in Skin Tumors: Neural Network vs. Rule-Based Induction Methods

The use of neural networks for automatic identification of variegated coloring, which is believed to be one of the most predictive features for malignant melanoma, is described. The Nestor development system (NDS) was chosen for neural network implementation. At the heart of NDS is a three-layer neural network called a restricted Coulomb energy (RCE) network. The learning scheme and the database for detection of variegated coloring are discussed. Results are reporte

Design of compensated ferrimagnetic Heusler alloys for giant tunable exchange bias

The discovery of materials with improved functionality can be accelerated by rational material design. Heusler compounds with tunable magnetic sublattices allow to implement this concept to achieve novel magnetic properties. Here, we have designed a family of Heusler alloys with a compensated ferrimagnetic state. In the vicinity of the compensation composition in Mn-Pt-Ga, a giant exchange bias (EB) of more than 3 T and a similarly large coercivity are established. The large exchange anisotropy originates from the exchange interaction between the compensated host and ferrimagnetic clusters that arise from intrinsic anti-site disorder. We demonstrate the applicability of our design concept on a second material, Mn-Fe-Ga, with a magnetic transition above room temperature, exemplifying the universality of the concept and the feasibility of room-temperature applications. Our study points to a new direction for novel magneto-electronic devices. At the same time it suggests a new route for realizing rare-earth free exchange-biased hard magnets, where the second quadrant magnetization can be stabilized by the exchange bias.Comment: Four figure

The admissible tsunamigenic source region of 24 September 2013 land-based earthquake application of backward ray tracing technique

A minor tsunami of about 50 cm was generated along the coast of Qurayat near Makran subduction zone in the Arabian Sea due to the 24 September 2013 Pakistan earthquake of magnitude 7.6 Mw(mB),although its source was ~200 km far inland of the Makran trench. The real time sea level observation network in the Arabian Sea recorded minor tsunami arrivals. In an attempt to explain the mechanism of this unusual tsunami, we use backward ray tracing technique to map the admissible region of tsunamigenic source. Basically, in this technique the ray equations are integrated starting from the specific locations of tsunami observations, in all possible directions. The known travel time of the initial waves to the respective tide gauges and tsunami buoys is used in this method. Backward wave front is constructed by joining all endpoints of the rays from each of the locations. The region where the envelope of all backward wave fronts converges is considered as the source of the tsunami, which is ~470 km from the earthquake epicentre with the location at 24.8 N and 61.5E. The admissible region identified is an undersea section between Chabahar and Gwadar, where a mud island had appeared subsequent to this earthquake. Convergence of the tsunami source zone and location of the mud island suggest that the sudden uplift must have caused the tsunam

Aspen pectate lyase PtxtPL1-27 mobilizes matrix polysaccharides from woody tissues and improves saccharification yield

Peer reviewe

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. METHODS: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. FINDINGS: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96-1·28). INTERPRETATION: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

Background: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. Methods: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. Findings: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96–1·28). Interpretation: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme

Synthesis, characterization, crystal structure and Hirshfeld surface analysis of a hexahydroquinoline derivative: tert-butyl 4-([1,1 '-biphenyl]-4-yl)-2,6,6-trimethyl-5-oxo-1,4,5,6,7,8-hexahydroquinoline-3-carboxylate

The title compound, C29H33NO3, crystallizes with three molecules (A, B and C) in the asymmetric unit. They differ in the twist of the phenyl and benzene rings of the 1,10-biphenyl ring with respect to the plane of the 1,4-dihydropyridine ring. In all three molecules, the 1,4-dihydropyridine ring adopts a distorted boat conformation. The cyclohexene ring has an envelope conformation in molecules A and B, while it exhibits a distorted half-chair conformation for both the major and minor components in the disordered molecule C. In the crystal, molecules are linked by C-H center dot center dot center dot O and N-H center dot center dot center dot O hydrogen bonds, forming layers parallel to (100) defining R-4(1)(6) and C(7) graph-set motifs. Additional C-H center dot center dot center dot pi interactions consolidate the layered structure. Between the layers, van derWaals interactions stabilize the packing, as revealed by Hirshfeld surface analysis. The greatest contributions to the crystal packing are from H center dot center dot center dot H (69.6% in A, 69.9% in B, 70.1% in C), C center dot center dot center dot H/H center dot center dot center dot C (20.3% in A, 20.6% in B, 20.3% in C) and O center dot center dot center dot H/H center dot center dot center dot O (8.6% in A, 8.6% in B, 8.4% in C) interactions

Crystal structure and Hirshfeld surface analysis of isopropyl 4-[2-fluoro-5-(trifluoromethyl)phenyl]-2,6,6-trimethyl-5-oxo-1,4,5,6,7,8-hexahydro-quinoline-3-carboxylate

In the title compound, C23H25F4NO3, the 1,4-dihydropyridine ring adopts a distorted boat conformation, while the cyclohexene ring is almost showing a half-chair conformation. In the crystal, intermolecular N—H· · ·O hydrogen bonds connect the molecules into chains with graph-set motif C(6) parallel to the a-axis. These chains are linked together by C—H· · ·O and C—H· · ·F interactions, forming a three-dimensional network. In addition, C—H· · ·π interactions link the molecules into layers parallel to the (100) plane. A Hirshfeld surface analysis was performed to further investigate the intermolecular interactions