Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Can we decrease the rate of negative sentinel lymph node biopsies? A retrospective study

The management of breast cancer has changed over the last century, with surgeries becoming less invasive and adjuvant therapies becoming indispensible. Sentinel lymph node biopsies (SLNB) have replaced axillary nodal dissections as a method of staging an axilla in early breast cancer. However, 70% of SLNBs are negative. The aim of this study was to determine if wecould decrease the rate of negative sentinel lymph node biopsies? A retrospective review over a 10 month period was undertaken. Patients undergoing a SLNB and who had a documented negative axillary ultrasound report were included. One hundred and fifty onepatients were eligible for inclusion. Patients’ ultrasound reports and initial biopsy specimen characteristics (ER/PR/Her2-neu, LVI, Grade, Location) were compared to their axillary nodal findings on histology. An ultrasound was able to predict a pathologically negative axilla in 71.6% of patients. Exclusion of micrometastasis increased the negative predictive value to82.8%. If the ultrasound was negative in a histologically positive axilla, it was likely that only 3 or less nodes were involved. Nodal metastasis could not be predicted based on the tumour characteristics that were reported on the initial tumour biopsy specimens(ER/PR/Her2- neu, LVI, Grade, Location). LVI and DCIS on the initial biopsy specimens were poorly correlated with the final histology specimen findings.. The results show that an ultrasound cannot currently replace a SLNB as an accurate means of evaluating an axilla. A clear limitation is the inability to detect micrometastasis, however the role of micrometastasis in axillary staging is diminishing. Ultrasonographic evaluation of the axilla is currently reported in a non-standardised manner. Classification systems do exist, and if applied to current reporting will increase the negative predictive value of ultrasonography. In the future, the combination of improved reporting standards of axillary ultrasounds, as well as the surgical conservatism with regard to the management of micrometastasis and small volume metastasis in the axilla will hopefully reduce the rate of negative SLNB’s

The Experience of Patients During the Clinical Management Pathway of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms at a NHS Trust

Background: The epidemiology of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is changing. Outcomes for aortic surgery have improved. However, the accepted guideline for the management of AAAs has remained unchanged over the last 2 decades. We aimed to gain insight into the patients’ experience while they are managed under the traditional clinical pathway. Method: With the help of a patient focus group, we designed a survey to assess the patients’ perception of the disease and their experience during different stages of the AAA clinical care pathway (surveillance, perioperative care, postoperative follow-up). An invitation to participate in the survey was sent to all patients with AAA who were receiving care at the Oxford Regional Vascular Services Unit, part of the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust. Results: We received 194 responses from patients with AAA. One hundred seventy-seven were male, with a median age of 75 to 79 years. Just over a third had undergone surgery already, and the remaining 63% were either in surveillance or awaiting surgery. Their experience during the AAA management pathway was mostly positive. Of the issues that were most important to them in terms of their medical care, the provision of explanation and regularity of monitoring stood out as the most common considerations. Conclusion: Patients are generally satisfied with the care they received, but there is room for improvement. They have also highlighted key areas that are most important to them in terms of their medical care. These should guide the future direction for quality improvement and research

Integrated Plasma and Tissue Proteomics Reveals Attractin Release by Intraluminal Thrombus of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms and Improves Aneurysm Growth Prediction in Humans

Objective: Discovery of novel biomarkers for AAA growth prediction. Background: Novel biomarker of AAA growth is a recognized priority in research. Our prior work implicated intraluminal thrombus (ILT) in AAAs to be a potential source of systemic mediators during AAA progression. Here we applied a mass spectrometry proteomics pipeline to discover novel biomarkers for AAA growth prediction. Methods: Patients were prospectively recruited. Plasma samples were collected at baseline (n = 62). AAA growth was recorded at 12 months. In Experiment 1, plasma samples from the fastest and slowest growth patients (n = 10 each) were compared. In Experiment 2, plasma samples were collected before and at 10-12 weeks after surgery (n = 29). In Experiment 3, paired ILT and omental biopsies were collected intra-operatively during open surgical repair (n = 3). In Experiment 4, tissue secretome was obtained from ex-vivo culture of these paired tissue samples. Samples were subjected to a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry workflow to discover novel biomarkers. Results: We discovered 3 proteins that are: (i) present in ILT; (ii) released by ILT; (iii) reduced in circulation after AAA surgery; (iv) differs between fast and slow growth AAAs. One of these is Attractin. Plasma Attractin correlates significantly with future AAA growth (Spearman r = 0.35, P &lt; 0.005). Using Attractin and AAA diameter as input variables, the area under receiver operating characteristics for predicting no growth and fast growth or AAA at 12 months is 85% and 76%, respectively. Conclusion: We show that ILT of AAAs releases mediators during the natural history of AAA growth. These are novel biomarkers for AAA growth prediction in humans

The Spatial Morphology of Intraluminal Thrombus Influences Type II Endoleak after Endovascular Repair of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

Introduction: Type 2 endoleaks (T2Es) after endovascular repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) can lead to sac expansion or failure of sac regression, and often present as a management dilemma. The intraluminal thrombus (ILT) may influence the likelihood of endoleaks after EVAR and can be characterized using routine preoperative imaging. We examined the relationship between preoperative spatial morphology of ILT and the incidence of postoperative T2E. Methods: All patients who underwent EVAR at the John Radcliffe Hospital (Oxford, UK) were prospectively entered in a clinical database. Computed tomography angiograms (CTAs) were performed as part of routine clinical care. The ILT morphology of each patient was determined using the preoperative CTA. Arterial phase cross-sectional images of the AAA were analyzed according to the presence and morphology of the thrombus in each quadrant. The overall ILT morphology was defined by measurements obtained over a 4-cm segment of the AAA. The diagnosis of T2Es during EVAR surveillance was confirmed by CTAs. The relation between the ILT morphology and T2E was assessed using logistic regression. Results: Between September 2009 and July 2016, 271 patients underwent EVAR for infrarenal AAAs (male: 241, age&nbsp;=&nbsp;79&nbsp;±&nbsp;7). The ILT was present in 265 (98%) of AAAs. Mean follow-up was 1.9&nbsp;±&nbsp;1.6&nbsp;years. The T2E was observed in 77 cases. Sixty-one percent of T2Es were observed within the first week after surgery. The T2E was observed in 50% (3/6) of cases without the ILT (no-ILT). Compared with no-ILT, the presence of circumferential or posterolateral ILTs was protective from T2Es (odds ratio&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.33 and 0.37; P&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.002 and P&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.047, respectively). Conclusions: The spatial ILT morphology on routine preoperative CTA imaging can be a biomarker for post-EVAR T2Es. ILTs that cover the posterolateral aspects of the lumen, or circumferential ILTs, are protective of T2Es. This information can be useful in the preoperative planning of EVARs