Heat Stroke in Emergency Department: Diagnosis and Management

Background: Heat stroke is a severe health concern with the potential for multi-organ failure, necessitating rapid and effective management. With rising global temperatures, there is increasing concern regarding the vulnerability of populations in high-heat areas, notably in Saudi Arabia, especially during the annual Hajj pilgrimage. Objective: This paper aims to review the epidemiology, evaluation and management techniques of heat stroke, emphasizing the situation during Hajj pilgrimages in Saudi Arabia, and to outline the best practices for emergency management. Methodology: A comprehensive review of literature and studies related to heat stroke, both globally and specific to Saudi Arabia, was undertaken. An in-depth analysis of emergency management, including initial assessment, cooling methods, organ support, medication, and prevention strategies, was conducted. Results: Heat stroke remains a significant cause of emergency department visits, with specific groups, such as men and the elderly, being more susceptible. During the Hajj in 2016, 267 patients were diagnosed with heat-related illnesses, with heatstroke accounting for 29% of these cases. With the threat of global warming, studies indicate a potential tenfold increase in heat stroke risk with a 2°C rise in temperatures. Swift and comprehensive cooling is pivotal for recovery. Management emphasizes rapid recognition, assessment, and varied cooling methods, along with targeted treatments for organ dysfunctions. Prevention strategies play a vital role, given the higher efficacy and practicality over treating organ dysfunctions. Conclusion: Heat stroke is a pressing health challenge, particularly in high-risk environments like Saudi Arabia during the Hajj pilgrimage. While effective emergency management protocols exist, an emphasis on prevention is crucial. It is imperative to incorporate a comprehensive approach to address both the immediate threat and long-term risks of heat stroke, especially with the looming challenge of global warming

Reliability of Self-Administered Questionnaire on Dietary Supplement Consumption in Malaysian Adolescents

The repeatability of most questionnaires utilized in previous studies related to the consumption of dietary supplements (DS) among youth has not been well documented. Thus, a simple and easy-to-administer questionnaire to capture the habitual use of DS in the past one year known as the dietary supplement questionnaire (DiSQ) was developed and supported with external reliability evaluation. Analyses were done based on a convenience sample of 46 secondary school students. To elicit information regarding the intake of DS, the questionnaire was partitioned into two domains. The first domain was used to identify vitamin/mineral (VM) supplements, while the second domain was utilized to identify non-vitamin/non-mineral (NVNM) supplements. Cohen’s kappa coefficient (k) was used to evaluate the test–retest reliability of the questionnaire. Questionnaire administration to the respondents was done twice whereby a retest was given two weeks after the first test. Between test and retest, the reliability of individual items ranged from moderate to almost perfect for the VM (k = 0.53–1.00) and NVNM (k = 0.63–1.00) domains. None of the items had “fair” or ”poor” agreement. Various correlation coefficients can be obtained for the DiSQ but are generally reliable over time for assessing information on the consumption of supplements among the adolescent population

Modifiable factors associated with bone health in Malaysian adolescents utilising calcaneus quantitative ultrasound.

Maximizing bone mineral accrual to attain an optimal peak bone mass (PBM), particularly during adolescence, appears to be an effective protective strategy in the prevention of osteoporosis. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of physical activity (PA), fat mass (FM), lean mass (LM), body mass index (BMI), calcium, or combination of vitamin D supplement intake, smoking and alcohol drinking status on bone health assessed by calcaneus quantitative ultrasound (QUS) in a healthy adolescent population. The participants comprised of 920 male and female secondary school adolescents aged 15-17 years old. Quantitative ultrasound measurements of the left heel were performed using Lunar Achilles EX II, which included results of broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), speed of sound (SOS), and a calculated stiffness index (SI). Multivariable linear regression analyses revealed that-PA was positively associated with all three QUS indices in both genders; BMI was positively associated with SI and SOS in females; LM was positively associated with BUA in both genders; and FM was negatively associated with SI in females. These variables accounted for 32.1%, 21.2% and 29.4% of females' SOS, BUA and SI variances (p<0.001), respectively and 23.6%, 15.4% and 17.2% of males' SOS, BUA and SI variances (p<0.001), respectively. Promoting health benefits from physical activity could influence bone status and consequently improve PBM, which is a potent protective determinant against osteoporosis in adulthood

An optimised spectrophotometric assay for convenient and accurate quantitation of intracellular iron from iron oxide nanoparticles

<p>We report the development and optimisation of an assay for quantitating iron from iron oxide nanoparticles in biological matrices by using ferene-s, a chromogenic compound. The method is accurate, reliable and can be performed with basic equipment common to many laboratories making it convenient and inexpensive. The assay we have developed is suited for quantitation of iron in cell culture studies with iron oxide nanoparticles, which tend to manifest low levels of iron. The assay was validated with standard reference materials and with inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to accurately measure iron concentrations ∼1 × 10⁻⁶ g in about 1 × 10⁶ cells (∼1 × 10⁻¹² g Fe per cell). The assay requires preparation and use of a working solution to which samples can be directly added without further processing. After overnight incubation, the absorbance can be measured with a standard UV/Vis spectrophotometer to provide iron concentration. Alternatively, for expedited processing, samples can be digested with concentrated nitric acid before addition to the working solution. Optimization studies demonstrated significant deviations accompany variable digestion times, highlighting the importance to ensure complete iron ion liberation from the nanoparticle or sample matrix to avoid underestimating iron concentration. When performed correctly, this method yields reliable iron ion concentration measurements to ∼2 × 10⁻⁶ M (1 × 10⁻⁷ g/ml sample).</p

Abstracts from the 3rd International Genomic Medicine Conference (3rd IGMC 2015)

Table of contents O1 Regulation of genes by telomere length over long distances Jerry W. Shay O2 The microtubule destabilizer KIF2A regulates the postnatal establishment of neuronal circuits in addition to prenatal cell survival, cell migration, and axon elongation, and its loss leading to malformation of cortical development and severe epilepsy Noriko Homma, Ruyun Zhou, Muhammad Imran Naseer, Adeel G. Chaudhary, Mohammed Al-Qahtani, Nobutaka Hirokawa O3 Integration of metagenomics and metabolomics in gut microbiome research Maryam Goudarzi, Albert J. Fornace Jr. O4 A unique integrated system to discern pathogenesis of central nervous system tumors Saleh Baeesa, Deema Hussain, Mohammed Bangash, Fahad Alghamdi, Hans-Juergen Schulten, Angel Carracedo, Ishaq Khan, Hanadi Qashqari, Nawal Madkhali, Mohamad Saka, Kulvinder S. Saini, Awatif Jamal, Jaudah Al-Maghrabi, Adel Abuzenadah, Adeel Chaudhary, Mohammed Al Qahtani, Ghazi Damanhouri O5 RPL27A is a target of miR-595 and deficiency contributes to ribosomal dysgenesis Heba Alkhatabi O6 Next generation DNA sequencing panels for haemostatic and platelet disorders and for Fanconi anaemia in routine diagnostic service Anne Goodeve, Laura Crookes, Nikolas Niksic, Nicholas Beauchamp O7 Targeted sequencing panels and their utilization in personalized medicine Adel M. Abuzenadah O8 International biobanking in the era of precision medicine Jim Vaught O9 Biobank and biodata for clinical and forensic applications Bruce Budowle, Mourad Assidi, Abdelbaset Buhmeida O10 Tissue microarray technique: a powerful adjunct tool for molecular profiling of solid tumors Jaudah Al-Maghrabi O11 The CEGMR biobanking unit: achievements, challenges and future plans Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mourad Assidi, Leena Merdad O12 Phylomedicine of tumors Sudhir Kumar, Sayaka Miura, Karen Gomez O13 Clinical implementation of pharmacogenomics for colorectal cancer treatment Angel Carracedo, Mahmood Rasool O14 From association to causality: translation of GWAS findings for genomic medicine Ahmed Rebai O15 E-GRASP: an interactive database and web application for efficient analysis of disease-associated genetic information Sajjad Karim, Hend F Nour Eldin, Heba Abusamra, Elham M Alhathli, Nada Salem, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani, Sudhir Kumar O16 The supercomputer facility “AZIZ” at KAU: utility and future prospects Hossam Faheem O17 New research into the causes of male infertility Ashok Agarwa O18 The Klinefelter syndrome: recent progress in pathophysiology and management Eberhard Nieschlag, Joachim Wistuba, Oliver S. Damm, Mohd A. Beg, Taha A. Abdel-Meguid, Hisham A. Mosli, Osama S. Bajouh, Adel M. Abuzenadah, Mohammed H. Al-Qahtani O19 A new look to reproductive medicine in the era of genomics Serdar Coskun P1 Wnt signalling receptors expression in Saudi breast cancer patients Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Ashraf Dallol, Jaudah Al-Maghrabi, Sahar Hakamy, Wejdan Al-Qahtani, Asia Al-Harbi, Shireen Hussain, Mourad Assidi, Mohammed Al-Qahtani, Adel Abuzenadah P2 Analysis of oxidative stress interactome during spermatogenesis: a systems biology approach to reproduction Burak Ozkosem, Rick DuBois P3 Interleukin-18 gene variants are strongly associated with idiopathic recurrent pregnancy loss. Safia S Messaoudi, Maryam T Dandana, Touhami Mahjoub, Wassim Y Almawi P4 Effect of environmental factors on gene-gene and gene-environment reactions: model and theoretical study applied to environmental interventions using genotype S. Abdalla, M. Nabil Al-Aama P5 Genomics and transcriptomic analysis of imatinib resistance in gastrointestinal stromal tumor Asmaa Elzawahry, Tsuyoshi Takahashi, Sachiyo Mimaki, Eisaku Furukawa, Rie Nakatsuka, Isao Kurosaka, Takahiko Nishigaki, Hiromi Nakamura, Satoshi Serada, Tetsuji Naka, Seiichi Hirota, Tatsuhiro Shibata, Katsuya Tsuchihara, Toshirou Nishida, Mamoru Kato P6 In-Silico analysis of putative HCV epitopes against Pakistani human leukocyte antigen background: an approach towards development of future vaccines for Pakistani population Sajid Mehmood, Naeem Mahmood Ashraf, Awais Asif, Muhammad Bilal, Malik Siddique Mehmood, Aadil Hussain P7 Inhibition of AChE and BuChE with the natural compounds of Bacopa monerri for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease: a bioinformatics approach Qazi Mohammad Sajid Jamal, Mughees Uddin Siddiqui, Mohammad A. Alzohairy, Mohammad A. Al Karaawi P8 Her2 expression in urothelial cell carcinoma of the bladder in Saudi Arabia Taoufik Nedjadi, Jaudah Al-Maghrabi, Mourad Assidi, Heba Al-Khattabi, Adel Al-Ammari, Ahmed Al-Sayyad, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P9 Association of angiotensinogen single nucleotide polymorphisms with Preeclampsia in patients from North Africa Hédia Zitouni, Nozha Raguema, Marwa Ben Ali, Wided Malah, Raja Lfalah, Wassim Almawi, Touhami Mahjoub P10 Systems biology analysis reveals relations between normal skin, benign nevi and malignant melanoma Mohammed Elanbari, Andrey Ptitsyn P11 The apoptotic effect of thymoquinone in Jurkat cells Sana Mahjoub, Rabeb El Ghali, Bechir Achour, Nidhal Ben Amor, Mourad Assidi, Brahim N'siri, Hamid Morjani P12 Sonic hedgehog contributes in bladder cancer invasion in Saudi Arabia Taoufik Nedjadi, Adel Al-Ammari, Ahmed Al-Sayyad, Nada Salem, Esam Azhar, Jaudah Al-Maghrabi P13 Association of Interleukin 18 gene promoter polymorphisms - 607A/C and -137 G/C with colorectal cancer onset in a sample of Tunisian population Vera Chayeb, Maryam Dendena, Hedia Zitouni, Khedija Zouari-Limayem, Touhami Mahjoub P14 Pathological expression of interleukin-6, -11, leukemia inhibitory factor and their receptors in tubal gestation with and without tubal cytomegalovirus infection Bassem Refaat, Ahmed M Ashshi, Sarah A Batwa P15 Phenotypic and genetic profiling of avian pathogenic and human diarrhegenic Escherichia coli in Egypt Hazem Ramadan, Amal Awad, Ahmed Ateya P16 Cancer-targeting dual gene virotherapy as a promising therapeutic strategy for treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma Adel Galal Ahmed El-Shemi, Ahmad Ashshi, Mohammed Basalamah, Youjin Na, Chae-Ok YUN P17 Cancer dual gene therapy with oncolytic adenoviruses expressing TRAIL and IL-12 transgenes markedly eradicated human hepatocellular carcinoma both in vitro and in vivo Adel Galal Ahmed El-Shemi, Ahmad Ashshi, Mohammed Basalamah, Youjin Na, Chae-Ok Yun P18 Therapy with paricalcitol attenuates tumor growth and augments tumoricidal and anti-oncogenic effects of 5-fluorouracil on animal model of colon cancer Adel Galal El-Shemi, Bassem Refaat, Osama Kensara, Amr Abdelfattah P19 The effects of Rubus idaeus extract on normal human lymphocytes and cancer cell line Batol Imran Dheeb, Mohammed M. F. Al-Halbosiy, Rghad Kadhim Al lihabi, Basim Mohammed Khashman P20 Etanercept, a TNF-alpha inhibitor, alleviates mechanical hypersensitivity and spontaneous pain in a rat model of chemotherapy-induced neuropathic pain Djouhri, Laiche, Chaudhary Adeel, Nedjadi, Taoufik P21 Sleeping beauty mutagenesis system identified genes and neuronal transcription factor network involved in pediatric solid tumour (medulloblastoma) Hani Al-Afghani, Maria Łastowska, Haya H Al-Balool, Harsh Sheth, Emma Mercer, Jonathan M Coxhead, Chris PF Redfern, Heiko Peters, Alastair D Burt, Mauro Santibanez-Koref, Chris M Bacon, Louis Chesler, Alistair G Rust, David J Adams, Daniel Williamson, Steven C Clifford, Michael S Jackson P22 Involvement of interleukin-1 in vitiligo pathogenesis Mala Singh, Mohmmad Shoab Mansuri, Shahnawaz D. Jadeja, Hima Patel, Yogesh S. Marfatia, Rasheedunnisa Begum P23 Cytogenetics abnormalities in 12,884 referred population for chromosomal analysis and the role of FISH in refining the diagnosis (cytogenetic experience 2004-2013) Amal M Mohamed, Alaa K Kamel, Nivin A Helmy, Sayda A Hammad, Hesham F Kayed, Marwa I Shehab, Assad El Gerzawy, Maha M. Ead, Ola M Ead, Mona Mekkawy, Innas Mazen, Mona El-Ruby P24 Analysis of binding properties of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 through in silico method S. M. A. Shahid, Qazi Mohammad Sajid Jamal, J. M. Arif, Mohtashim Lohani P25 Relationship of genetics markers cis and trans to the β-S globin gene with fetal hemoglobin expression in Tunisian sickle cell patients Moumni Imen, Chaouch Leila, Ouragini Houyem, Douzi Kais, Chaouachi Dorra Mellouli Fethi, Bejaoui Mohamed, Abbes Salem P26 Analysis of estrogen receptor alpha gene polymorphisms in breast cancer: link to genetic predisposition in Sudanese women Areeg Faggad, Amanuel T Gebreslasie, Hani Y Zaki, Badreldin E Abdalla P27 KCNQI gene polymorphism and its association with CVD and T2DM in the Saudi population Maha S AlShammari, Rhaya Al-Ali, Nader Al-Balawi , Mansour Al-Enazi, Ali Al-Muraikhi, Fadi Busaleh, Ali Al-Sahwan, Francis Borgio, Abdulazeez Sayyed, Amein Al-Ali, Sadananda Acharya P28 Clinical, neuroimaging and cytogenetic study of a patient with microcephaly capillary malformation syndrome Maha S. Zaki, Hala T. El-Bassyouni, Marwa I. Shehab P29 Altered expression of CD200R1 on dendritic cells of patients with inflammatory bowel diseases: in silico investigations and clinical evaluations Mohammed F. Elshal, Kaleemuddin M., Alia M. Aldahlawi, Omar Saadah, J. Philip McCoy P30 Development of real time PCR diagnostic protocol specific for the Saudi Arabian H1N1 viral strains Adel E El-Tarras, Nabil S Awad, Abdulla A Alharthi, Mohamed M M Ibrahim P31 Identification of novel genetic variations affecting Osteoarthritis patients Haneen S Alsehli, Ashraf Dallol, Abdullah M Gari, Mohammed M Abbas, Roaa A Kadam, Mazen M. Gari, Mohmmed H Alkaff, Adel M Abuzenadah, Mamdooh A Gari P32 An integrated database of GWAS SNVs and their evolutionary properties Heba Abusamra, Sajjad Karim, Hend F Nour eldin, Elham M Alhathli, Nada Salem, Sudhir Kumar, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani P33 Familial hypercholesterolemia in Saudi Arabia: prime time for a national registry and genetic analysis Fatima A. Moradi, Omran M. Rashidi, Zuhier A. Awan P34 Comparative genomics and network-based analyses of early hepatocellular carcinoma Ibrahim Hamza Kaya, Olfat Al-Harazi, Dilek Colak P35 A TALEN-based oncolytic viral vector approach to knock out ABCB1 gene mediated chemoresistance in cancer stem cells Nabila A Alkousi, Takis Athanasopoulos P36 Cartilage differentiation and gene expression of synovial fluid mesenchymal stem cells derived from osteoarthritis patients Afnan O Bahmaid, Etimad A Alhwait, Mamdooh A Gari, Haneen S Alsehli, Mohammed M Abbas, Mohammed H Alkaf, Roaa Kadam, Ashraf Dallol, Gauthaman Kalamegam P37 E-GRASP: Adding an evolutionary component to the genome-wide repository of associations (GRASP) resource Hend F Nour Eldin, Sajjad Karim, Heba Abusamra, Elham Alhathli, Nada Salem, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani, Sudhir Kumar P38 Screening of AGL gene mutation in Saudi family with glycogen storage disease Type III Salma N Alsayed, Fawziah H Aljohani, Samaher M Habeeb, Rawan A Almashali, Sulman Basit, Samia M Ahmed P39 High throughput proteomic data suggest modulation of cAMP dependent protein kinase A and mitochondrial function in infertile patients with varicocele Rakesh Sharma, Ashok Agarwal, Damayanthi Durairajanayagam, Luna Samanta, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Adel M. Abuzenadah, Edmund S. Sabanegh, Mourad Assidi, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P40 Significant protein profile alterations in men with primary and secondary infertility Ashok Agarwal, Rakesh Sharma, Luna Samanta, Damayanthi Durairajanayagam, Mourad Assidi, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Mohammed Al-Qahtani, Adel M. Abuzenadah, Edmund S. Sabanegh P41 Spermatozoa maturation in infertile patients involves compromised expression of heat shock proteins Luna Samanta, Ashok Agarwal, Rakesh Sharma, Zhihong Cui, Mourad Assidi, Adel M. Abuzenadah, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P42 Array comparative genomic hybridization approach to search genomic answers for spontaneous recurrent abortion in Saudi Arabia Alaa A Alboogmi, Nuha A Alansari, Maha M Al-Quaiti, Fai T Ashgan, Afnan Bandah, Hasan S Jamal, Abdullraheem Rozi, Zeenat Mirza, Adel M Abuzenadah, Sajjad Karim, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani P43 Global gene expression profiling of Saudi kidney cancer patients Sajjad Karim, Hans-Juergen Schulten, Ahmad J Al Sayyad, Hasan MA Farsi, Jaudah A Al-Maghrabi, Zeenat Mirza, Reem Alotibi, Alaa Al-Ahmadi, Nuha A Alansari, Alaa A Albogmi, Maha M Al-Quaiti, Fai T Ashgan, Afnan Bandah, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani P44 Downregulated StAR gene and male reproductive dysfunction caused by nifedipine and ethosuximide Rasha A Ebiya, Samia M Darwish, Metwally M. Montaser P45 Clustering based gene expression feature selection method: A computational approach to enrich the classifier efficiency of differentially expressed genes Heba Abusamra, Vladimir B. Bajic P46 Prognostic significance of Osteopontin expression profile in colorectal carcinoma Jaudah Al-Maghrabi, Wafaey Gomaa, Mehenaz Hanbazazh, Mahmoud Al-Ahwal, Asia Al-Harbi, Wejdan Al-Qahtani, Saher Hakamy, Ghali Baba, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P47 High Glypican-3 expression pattern predicts longer disease-specific survival in colorectal carcinoma Jaudah Al-Maghrabi, Abdullah Al-Harbi, Mahmoud Al-Ahwal, Asia Al-Harbi, Wejdan Al-Qahtani, Sahar Hakamy, Ghalia Baba, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P48 An evolutionary re-assessment of GWAS single nucleotide variants implicated in the Cholesterol traits Elham M Alhathli, Sajjad Karim, Nada Salem, Hend Nour Eldin, Heba Abusamra, Sudhir Kumar, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani P49 Derivation and characterization of human Wharton’s jelly stem cells (hWJSCs) in vitro for future therapeutic applications Aisha A Alyamani, Gauthaman Kalamegam, Etimad A Alhwait, Mamdooh A Gari, Mohammed M Abbas, Mohammed H Alkaf, Haneen S Alsehli, Roaa A Kadam, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P50 Attitudes of healthcare students toward biomedical research in the post-genomic era Rawan Gadi, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mourad Assidi , Adeel Chaudhary, Leena Merdad P51 Evaluation of the immunomodulatory effects of thymoquinone on human bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (BM-MSCs) from osteoarthritic patients Saadiah M Alfakeeh, Etimad A Alhwait, Mamdooh A Gari, Mohammed M Abbas, Mohammed H Alkaf, Haneen S Alsehli, Roaa Kadam, Gauthaman Kalamegam P52 Implication of IL-10 and IL-28 polymorphism with successful anti-HCV therapy and viral clearance Rubi Ghazala, Shilu Mathew, M.Haroon Hamed, Mourad Assidi, Mohammed Al-Qahtani, Ishtiaq Qadri P53 Selection of flavonoids against obesity protein (FTO) using in silico and in vitro approaches Shilu Mathew, Lobna Mira, Manal Shaabad, Shireen Hussain, Mourad Assidi, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P54 Computational selection and in vitro validation of flavonoids as new antidepressant agents Shilu Mathew, Manal Shaabad, Lobna Mira, Shireen Hussain, Mourad Assidi, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P55 In Silico prediction and prioritization of aging candidate genes associated with progressive telomere shortening Ahmed Rebai, Mourad Assidi, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Ashraf Dallol, Jerry W Shay P56 Identification of new cancer testis antigen genes in diverse types of malignant human tumour cells Mikhlid H Almutairi P57 More comprehensive forensic genetic marker analyses for accurate human remains identification using massively parallel sequencing (MPS) Angie Ambers, Jennifer Churchill, Jonathan King, Monika Stoljarova, Harrell Gill-King, Mourad Assidi, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Muhammad Al-Qatani, Bruce Budowle P58 Flow cytometry approach towards treatment men infertility in Saudi Arabia Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Farid Ahmed, Ashraf Dallol, Mourad Assidi, Taha Abo Almagd, Sahar Hakamy, Ashok Agarwal, Muhammad Al-Qahtani, Adel Abuzenadah P59 Tissue microarray based validation of CyclinD1 expression in renal cell carcinoma of Saudi kidney patients Sajjad Karim, Hans-Juergen Schulten, Ahmad J Al Sayyad, Hasan MA Farsi, Jaudah A Al-Maghrabi, Abdelbaset Buhmaida, Zeenat Mirza, Reem Alotibi, Alaa Al-Ahmadi, Nuha A Alansari, Alaa A Albogmi, Maha M Al-Quaiti, Fai T Ashgan, Afnan Bandah, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani P60 Assessment of gold nanoparticles in molecular diagnostics and DNA damage studies Rukhsana Satar, Mahmood Rasool, Waseem Ahmad, Nazia Nazam, Mohamad I Lone, Muhammad I Naseer, Mohammad S Jamal, Syed K Zaidi, Peter N Pushparaj, Mohammad A Jafri, Shakeel A Ansari, Mohammed H Alqahtani P61 Surfing the biospecimen management and processing workflow at CEGMR Biobank Hanan Bashier, Abrar Al Qahtani, Shilu Mathew, Amal M. Nour, Heba Alkhatabi, Adel M. Abu Zenadah, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mourad Assidi, Muhammed Al Qahtani P62 Autism Spectrum Disorder: knowledge, attitude and awareness in Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Muhammad Faheem, Shilu Mathew, Shiny Mathew, Peter Natesan Pushparaj, Mohammad H. Al-Qahtani P63 Simultaneous genetic screening of the coagulation pathway genes using the Thromboscan targeted sequencing panel Hani A. Alhadrami, Ashraf Dallol, Adel Abuzenadah P64 Genome wide array comparative genomic hybridization analysis in patients with syndromic congenital heart defects Ibtessam R. Hussein, Adeel G. Chaudhary, Rima S Bader, Randa Bassiouni, Maha Alquaiti, Fai Ashgan, Hans Schulten, Mohamed Nabil Alama, Mohammad H. Al Qahtani P65 Toxocogenetic evaluation of 1, 2-Dichloroethane in bone marrow, blood and cells of immune system using conventional, molecular and flowcytometric approaches Mohammad I Lone, Nazia Nizam, Waseem Ahmad, Mohammad A Jafri, Mahmood Rasool, Shakeel A Ansari, Muhammed H Al-Qahtani P66 Molecular cytogenetic diagnosis of sexual development disorders in newborn: A case of ambiguous genitalia Eradah Alshihri, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Lina Alharbi, Mourad Assidi, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P67 Identification of disease specific gene expression clusters and pathways in hepatocellular carcinoma using In Silico methodologies Shilu Mathew, Peter Pushparaj Natesan, Muhammed Al Qahtani P68 Human Wharton’s Jelly stem cell conditioned medium inhibits primary ovarian cancer cells in vitro: Identification of probable targets and mechanisms using systems biology Gauthaman Kalamegam, Peter Natesan Pushparaj, Fazal Khan, Roaa Kadam, Farid Ahmed, Mourad Assidi, Khalid Hussain Wali Sait, Nisreen Anfinan, Mohammed Al Qahtani P69 Mutation spectrum of ASPM (Abnormal Spindle-like, Microcephaly-associated) gene in Saudi Arabian population Muhammad I Naseer, Adeel G Chaudhary, Mohammad S Jamal, Shilu Mathew, Lobna S Mira, Peter N Pushparaj, Shakeel A Ansari, Mahmood Rasool, Mohammed H AlQahtani P70 Identification and characterization of novel genes and mutations of primary microcephaly in Saudi Arabian population Muhammad I Naseer, Adeel G Chaudhary, Shilu Mathew, Lobna S Mira, Mohammad S Jamal, Sameera Sogaty, Randa I Bassiouni, Mahmood Rasool, Mohammed H AlQahtani P71 Molecular genetic analysis of hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (Lynch Syndrome) in Saudi Arabian population Mahmood Rasool, Shakeel A Ansari, Mohammad S Jamal, Peter N Pushparaj, Abdulrahman MS Sibiani, Waseem Ahmad, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mohammad A Jafri, Mohiuddin K Warsi, Muhammad I Naseer, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani P72 Function predication of hypothetical proteins from genome database of chlamydia trachomatis Rubi, Kundan Kumar, Ahmad AT Naqvi, Faizan Ahmad, Md

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions